作者eliczone (C'est la vie)
看板Pelicans
标题[外电] The New Orleans Pelicans’ Biggest Pro
时间Fri Dec 27 18:44:12 2013
http://0rz.tw/YjCry
I am about to introduce a ground-breaking concept, so prepare to be amazed.
In the game of basketball, there are only three ways (excluding the clock
expiring at the end of a quarter) that a possession can end: a made shot, a
missed shot + defensive rebound, or a turnover. The defense’s objective,
therefore, is to force one of the latter two options. Wild, right?!
在篮球比赛，只有三种方式结束一回合：投进，没进加上防守篮板，或者失误。防守的
目的就是要造成後面两种结果，对吧？
To date, the Pelicans have forced their opponents into turning the ball over
on 16% of their possessions, which ranks in the top third of all NBA
defenses. However, their overall defensive rating of 105.4 points allowed per
100 possessions is 6th worst in the NBA. The resulting conclusion, then, is
simple – when the Pelicans are not forcing turnovers, they are giving up a
lot of made shots. Why have they been so bad at shot defense? Let’s take a
look.
到目前为止，鹈鹕制造对手的失误率为16%，排名第三高。但是他们整体防守率是第6烂，
每一百回合会失105.4分。所以很简单可以导引出一个结论，当鹈鹕没办法制造对手犯规
时，他们失了太多分。为什麽他们在投篮防守方面这麽烂呢？
Shot Locations
投篮位置
So where are these shots coming from? With the season about a third of the
way complete, we’re at a point where hot streaks and cold spells will
largely have had enough time to level off, which means that there is a high
likelihood that opponents haven’t just been getting lucky with ill-advised
attempts. The numbers appear to support this hypothesis as well: the Pelicans
force their opponents into shooting only 38.3 percent of all shot attempts
between the rim and the 3-point line, fourth lowest in the NBA. For comparison
’s sake, the Bulls and Pacers lead the league by forcing about 49% of their
opponents’ shot attempts from this distance. To make matters worse, New
Orleans’ opponents are making about 40.5% of those shots, which is 6th
highest in the NBA. That number can be somewhat fluky, however, so the #1
goal should be forcing more shots from this area regardless of previous teams
’ success rates.
所以这些投篮是从哪里来的？球季已经进行三分之一，所以代表着对手不是只是运气进球
。鹈鹕让对手在篮框和三分线之间的投射比例只有38.3%，排名第四低。来跟公牛和溜马比
一下，他们让对手在这个距离的投篮有49%，全联盟最高。更糟的是，纽奥良的对手在这些
投射中还命中了40.5%，排行第六高。数字可能有点运气成份，所以最重要的目标就是要让
对手在这个距离投更多篮，尽管对手的成功率很高。
Now that we know where the shots are NOT coming from, we can easily infer
where they are coming from – either right at the rim or from 3-point range.
New Orleans allows 27.4% of their opponents’ total field goal attempts from
3-point range, 8th highest in the NBA. While that’s not great, they defend
the 3-point shots they do give up at about the league average rate, so the
team’s three point defense is a little below average but likely isn’t as
much of an issue as previously thought.
现在知道这些投射不是来自哪里，那就可以很简单知道是来自哪里 - "要不是在篮框附近
不然就是三分线後"。纽奥良让对手有27.4%的投射在三分线後，排名第八高。尽管这不是
很好的成绩，他们在防守三分的时候放弃掉的投射比例是在联盟平均，所以球队对於三分
的防守是低於联盟平均，但很可能这不是问题所在。
Finally, we come to New Orleans’ defense on shots taken at the rim. The
Pelicans allow 34.3% of opponents’ total field goal attempts from the
restricted area, 8th highest in the NBA. Unlike the team’s mediocre 3-point
defense, however, they compound this issue with poor interior defense on
these shots, allowing opponents to make them at a rate of 61.5% (22nd in the
NBA).
最後，就来到了纽奥良对於篮框周围的防守。鹈鹕让对手在三秒区内的投射比例为34.3%
，联盟第八高。不像球队中庸的三分防守，他们让对手在这边的命中率高达61.5%，联盟
排行第22。
Additional Scoring Opportunities
The Pelicans allow the 7th worst effective field goal percentage (FG%
weighted for the added value of a 3-pointer) of 51.4%. Despite everything
detailed above, that ranking doesn’t appear to be bad enough to result in
the league’s 6th worst defense given how good the team is at forcing
turnovers. So what gives? As it turns out, there are two additional factors
which are dragging the Pelicans’ defense down even further.
鹈鹕对手的EFG%是第七糟，有51.4%。尽管上述的每一项都列出来，但也不太像是一支这
麽会制造对手犯规的球队会在防守排名第六烂的原因。所以还有两项额外的因素。
First, by allowing opponents to shoot the ball right at the rim so
frequently, they are also much more prone to fouling and subsequent free
throw attempts. Sure enough, New Orleans is tied with Miami for the 3rd worst
free throw rate allowed to opponents, as they attempt .313 free throws per
field goal attempt. The end result of this statistic is easy to see, as the
Pelicans allow just over 25 free throw attempts per 48 minutes, 8th worst in
the NBA. That’s almost 7 more free throw attempts allowed per game than the
division rival Spurs, whose 18.5 free throw attempts allowed per game rank
2nd best in the NBA. Given the league average free throw percentage of right
around 75%, that’s about 5 more points per game New Orleans is allowing from
the free throw line than San Antonio. Add those 5 points per 48 minutes to
the Pelicans’ average scoring margin, and they’d be sitting right in
between the Clippers and Rockets at 7th best in the NBA. While that example
is certainly a stretch, it gives some perspective in regards to how important
it is to both attempt shots at the rim and prevent opponents from doing the
same.
首先，因为常常让对手在篮框附近投篮，所以也就很容易犯规，让对手罚球。的确，纽奥
良和迈阿密一起在让对手罚球率的排行排名第三烂，每一次出手就会有.313次的罚球机会
。结果很显而易见，鹈鹕每48分钟会让对手罚25球，是在联盟排第八烂的。每场比赛几乎
比马刺还要多将近7次，他们每场比赛只有让对手罚18.5次，排名第二好。联盟的罚球命
中率差不多75%，也就是鹈鹕每场比赛在罚球线上比马刺还要多丢5分。这5分加上去可以
让鹈鹕排名在快艇和火箭之间，在联盟中排名第七。这也证明了进攻的时候在篮框附近投
篮以及避免让对手在篮框附近投篮是有多重要的事。
The second problem comes via the glass. Even if you’re able to force missed
shots, it means relatively little if opponents grab the ensuing rebounds and
give themselves extra scoring opportunities. Sure enough, the Pelicans allow
an opponents’ offensive rebound rate of 27%, the 6th worst percentage in the
league and a ranking which makes them the only team to fall in the league’s
bottom 7 in both opponents’ eFG% and opponents’ ORR%. So, to put it simply,
the Pelicans are giving up a high percentage of made shots and a lot of extra
scoring opportunities after missed shots. Not exactly a recipe for success.
第二个问题就是篮板。就算你能够让对手投不进，如果让对手抓到进攻篮板，那也没有用
。鹈鹕对手的进攻篮板率为27%，排名第六烂，也使得他们是唯一一支球队在对手的eFG%
以及对手的ORR%都在联盟的倒数七名内。简单来说，鹈鹕就是让对手投太多高命中率的投
篮以及太多二次进攻机会。
Conclusion
结论
Plain and simple, the Pelicans need to take back the paint on defense. Given
the fact that the team has Anthony Davis, this shouldn’t be as big of a
problem as it is, but he ends up outside of the paint far too frequently. If
the team won’t commit to playing him at center, then he’s going to end up
chasing some players away from the rim or getting tied up in pick and rolls.
The result, as Zach Lowe alluded to in his recent Grantland column, is no
interior defense left to either protect the rim or come down with defensive
rebounds. When Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson play together, Davis HAS to be
played as a true center and last line of defense between the ball and the
hoop (see: Hibbert, Roy). Otherwise, this team will continue to get dominated
for position inside and give up tons of points down low until it can find a
legitimate defensive center who doesn’t commit fouls every 30 seconds and is
competent enough on the offensive end to be played regularly. This Pelicans
team can’t become the Pacers overnight, but they really should not be as bad
on defense as they have been so far. With a greater commitment to protecting
the rim, we could start to see some real improvements on the defensive side
of the ball.
简单明了，鹈鹕要巩固禁区防守。球队有AD照理来说不应该是大问题，但问题就在於他常
常在禁区之外。如果球队不让他打中锋，那他就会去追一些外围的球员，或者在挡拆的时
候被绑住。就会变得没有禁区防守或者抓不下防守篮板。当AD和Ryno一起上场时，AD必须
打得像中锋，要做球和篮框之间最後的屏障。否则这支球队会持续在禁区被吃死死，直到
找到一名堪用的防守中锋，他不能每30秒就犯规一次，还要在进攻上能够将球塞进篮框。
鹈鹕不会一晚就变成溜马，但他们真的不应该烂成这个样子。有一个很好的篮框保护者，
就会在防守端上看到进步。
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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 219.85.121.5
1F：→ eliczone:这也就是为什麽再找一支大柱子或能投射的SF有这麽重要的 12/27 18:45
2F：→ eliczone:原因 如果4号摆Ryno 那其实禁区防守会死的很难看 而且看 12/27 18:46
3F：→ eliczone:这样子短时间内不会让AD当真正的五号 他的特点就在於他的 12/27 18:46
4F：→ eliczone:防守范围 所以如果有一支大柱子在篮下和AD搭挡 这禁区防 12/27 18:47
5F：→ eliczone:守就很可观 目前Ajinca完成了7成 但他太会犯规了 虽然有 12/27 18:47
6F：→ eliczone:很大一部分都是因为进攻犯规(不熟规则) 但也因此让他在场 12/27 18:47
7F：→ eliczone:上的时间无法太久 而如果要同时考虑到攻击范围 那三号就 12/27 18:49
8F：→ eliczone:必须要有投射能力的人 从暑假就一直在讲 巫师的Webster 12/27 18:50
9F：→ eliczone:他是联盟中最被低估的其中之一 他打的很有水准 或者是阿 12/27 18:51
10F：→ eliczone:拓的Dorell Wright暑假也很希望Dell能签他 结果都没有... 12/27 18:51
11F：推 Dragonborn:push 12/27 19:16
12F：推 oceion1108:大柱子有，灵活的少啊！ 12/27 19:30
13F：推 strayfate:第一段是防守篮板 想说守方要进攻篮板做什麽XD 12/27 21:41
※ 编辑: eliczone 来自: 219.85.121.5 (12/27 22:19)
14F：推 mashburn:推! 12/28 00:34
15F：推 ninaman:就说火箭的Asik和贾西亚啊…… 12/28 00:37
16F：→ ninaman:送EG到太阳 太阳送green和欧卡福到火箭 12/28 00:40
17F：→ ninaman:火箭送老贾和Asik到鹈鹕 这是我的想法 12/28 00:41
18F：推 oceion1108:如果可以我要阿福不要阿西克，而且太阳应该不想要狗蛋 12/28 07:13
19F：→ oceion1108:了吧！ 12/28 07:13
20F：→ eliczone:EG今天不会打 Morrow先发 12/28 08:34
21F：推 choroq3:EG受伤了吗？ 12/28 09:19
22F：推 oceion1108:领先就有点放松了 12/28 10:21
23F：推 mashburn:赢了!上半场AD犯规麻烦 Ajinca代抓8板! 12/28 11:16
24F：→ mashburn:第四节AD一波防守连三锅! 12/28 11:18
25F：→ eliczone:Xreke又差一点大三元 win!!!!!! 12/28 11:28
26F：推 MRight:Reke打得真棒，Monty终於拿到说明书了吗 12/28 11:37
27F：→ fever200977:te微三元 切入王 好怀念 该回来了 12/28 11:43
28F：推 ninaman:TE今天连三分都长回来了…… 12/28 11:56
29F：推 Dragonborn:ryno又上快40…@@ 12/28 11:57
30F：→ eliczone:Ajinca真是签的即时 不然禁区会非常惨 12/28 12:56
31F：→ eliczone:reke的三分不应该这麽差 现在只是在回稳 好兆头 12/28 12:59
32F：→ eliczone:希望明天不要被裁判打败 12/29 00:40