作者ckbbwtb (曲终人不散)
看板Hornets
标题[打屁] The Pelicans Take Flight
时间Thu Jul 11 11:00:46 2013
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9462545/the-remaking-new-orleans-pelicans
by Zach Lowe
文很长很长,翻到哪算哪,没有逐字翻,有兴趣的可以自己看
Two weeks ago, the New Orleans Pelicans were a funky team with some very good
young players, a killer new mascot, another lottery pick, a coach with the
most diverse sideline wardrobe in the NBA, and an intriguing upside that
seemed years away. And then, bam: They surprised everyone by trading two
first-round picks, including the pick that turned out to be Nerlens Noel, in
exchange for Jrue Holiday — a deal with serious Kawhi Leonard–George Hill
potential in terms of long-term "Who won?" curiousity. They followed that up
by immediately throwing a monster contract at Tyreke Evans, one of the
league's five best restricted free agents, at the start of a free-agency
period in which there has been almost zero buzz around the other four.
两个礼拜前,纽奥良鹈鹕是一只有很棒的年轻球员、新的吉祥物、一个乐透签、
一个全联盟西装种类最多的教练、而且有着进步潜力的球队。突然之间,砰!他
们吓坏了所有人,用两个乐透签(其中一个变成了Nerlens Noel)换来了 Jrue
Holiday —一个 George Hill换 Kawhi Leonard式的交易,让人好奇长远来看谁
才赚了。他们紧接着在几个最好的市场上受限自由球员(Peko、Teague、Jennings
和Henderson)有动静之前,丢了一个巨型合约给同样是顶级RFA的Tyreke Evans。
Once the Evans deal is complete, the Pellies will have six players locked up
through 2015-16, tied with the Celtics for the largest number (excluding
2013-14 rookies) of any team in the league. Those six guys, plus draft picks
and charges for empty roster spots, would take the Pelicans very close to the
projected salary cap in the summers of 2014 and 2015. In other words, this
six-man group could be the team: Evans, Holiday, Anthony Davis, Austin
Rivers, Ryan Anderson, and Eric Gordon. To acquire that core, the Pelicans
have sacrificed both future cap flexibility and a pick in next June's loaded
draft, the key asset that swung the Noel-Holiday deal. Outside of Boston,
which has quickly become Valhalla for any NBA front-office geek interested in
a monster rebuild project, the Pelicans have had the league's most
interesting offseason — a series of high-risk, high-reward gambles that have
divided rival executives and gone against the grain of larger trends in NBA
team-building strategy.
等到Evans的三方交易正式完成,有六个球员直到2015-16赛季都会在鹈鹕阵中,
这数字和赛尔提克并列全联盟之冠。这六个人加上未来的新秀和其他签来坐板凳
的球员就让鹈鹕的团队薪资非常接近2014和2015预估的薪资上限。换句话说,这
六个人就等於这支球队:Evans、Holiday、Anthony Davis、Austin Rivers、
Ryan Anderson 和 Eric Gordon 为了得到这组核心,鹈鹕牺牲了未来的薪资弹性
和明年选秀大年的首轮签,也就是 Holiday 那笔交易得以成交的关键资产。除了
波士顿那个已经成了front-office geek朝圣之地的超大型重建计画以外,鹈鹕有
着全联盟最有意思的休赛季—和联盟风气以及其他球队制服组不同,进行了一连
串的高风险高回报的赌博。
And the gamble starts right away, at the behest of owner Tom Benson, who
pushed the front office to end the slow game and accelerate the rebuild now,
per several sources around the league. Dell Demps and his staff have tried to
find a middle path by acquiring two productive players — Holiday and Evans —
that are both just 23 years old, with upside still to realize. The Sixers
are counting on the experiment being a failure this season. If it is, Philly
could end up with the no. 6 or no. 7 pick in addition to its own, which
appears a sure thing to fall among the top five.3 The Pelicans believe this
group can chase one of the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference,
and that even if they fail, they might still win enough games to slot their
pick somewhere in the no. 12-14 range.
几个联盟知情人士说,这场赌博在老板 Tom Benson 要求制服组加快重建速度之
後就开始了。 Dell Demps 和他的制服组试着找到一条中庸之道,弄来了两个才
23岁,而且还在进步又有效率的的球员(Holiday 和 Evans)。七六人则是满心
期待这场实验失败,因为这样他们可以在明年选秀夜拿到第六或第七号签(交易
去的首轮签有前五顺位保护),再加上他们自己几乎笃定是前五顺位的首轮签。
鹈鹕相信这组核心起码可以吊车尾进季後赛,就算不成,也只会给七六人一支十
二到十四号签。
And that's really the bet here — the wager that lands right in the
crosshairs of a simmering debate about the worth of first-round picks. The
no. 13 pick, according to an exhaustive ESPN.com analysis of past NBA drafts,
has an average return of something like Corliss Williamson. But the new
collective bargaining agreement, with its harsh tax rates and roster-building
limits imposed upon big spenders, has teams prizing draft picks more than
ever. Only one future first-round pick changed hands at the trade deadline,
far below what we'd normally see, and teams have paid ever-increasing sums to
acquire first-rounders from rivals — even if those picks are likely to fall
toward the end of the first round, where the average return dips to Jon Barry
levels. Golden State assumed Richard Jefferson's monster contract to acquire
San Antonio's 2012 first-round pick, which became no. 30 (Festus Ezeli). And
just this week, Utah took on a whopping $24 million in dead salary as the
price for two Golden State first-rounders and two second-rounders.4 There are
other examples out there.
这才是真正的赌注—有关首轮签价值的争论。根据ESPN的分析结果,十三号签的
新秀大概是像 Corliss Williamson等级的。但在新版CBA高额的豪华税率和签人
限制下,让选秀权的价值在各个球队眼里史无前例的高。交易大限前只有一个首
轮签被交易,远低於一般的预期同时球队也愿意用越来越高的代价去弄来一个首
轮签,就算只是首轮末、大概就是 Jon Barry等级的新秀。勇士吃了 Richard
Jefferson 的合约,弄来2012的第三十号签(最後变成Festus Ezeli)。这礼拜
爵士吃了24M 的垃圾合约从勇士那弄来两张首轮签和两张次轮签。这样的例子还
有很多。
The word "asset" has never had more currency in the NBA. Draft picks, even in
the 20s, are "assets" teams can use to acquire cheap talent, or to grease the
wheels in potential mega-trades for star players. The Celtics view the three
unprotected picks they nabbed from the spend-spend-spend Nets not just as
young players that will don the hallowed green, but as "assets" carrying the
lure of the unknown for a rival GM looking to move a disgruntled star.
「资产」这东西在联盟的价值从没这麽高过。就算是20顺位左右的选秀权,都变
成了可以换来天分、或是大型的球星交易中的重要「资产」。赛尔提克把他们从
漫天撒钱的篮网那弄来的三个选秀权不仅仅视为将来穿绿球衣的年轻球员,它们
同时还是可以从不知道哪队的GM手上弄来不开心的球星的「资产」。
There are lots of people around the league who think the valuing of draft
picks has gone too far — that it has become almost a fetish. Count the
Pelicans among them. They looked at Holiday and saw a certainty — a
23-year-old NBA baby who proved last season, at least before a horrific late
shooting slump, that he was up for a larger burden on offense. Holiday brings
an above-average 3-point shot, decent court vision, a very affordable
long-term contract that kicks in next season, and the ability to defend
shooting guards if necessary. The Pelicans are gambling that a known
commodity of this level will be worth more than this year's no. 6 pick,
recovering from a severe knee injury, and a back-of-the-lottery selection
next year.
联盟里同时有很多人认为选秀权的价值已经高到太超过了—只差没有供起来拜,
鹈鹕也是这麽认为的。他们看到 Holiday有形的价值—一个23岁并且已经在联盟
中证明过自己(起码在球季末因为承担太多进攻责任而命中率大降之前)的年轻
人。Holiday 有高过平均的三分投射、良好的球场视野、下个球季才开始的佛心
长约、和必要时能守得分後卫的防守能力。鹈鹕在赌,赌一个这种等级的球员会
比今年刚从膝伤回来的六号签及明年的新秀签还要好。
The Sixers, for their part, are betting on a lot of things — Noel's health,
the Pelicans continuing to struggle, and the notion that it's much easier to
replace 85 percent of a quality starting point guard's production than it is
to find the next Tyson Chandler. And you can see the logic. There are so many
decent starting point guards in the league that Teague and Jennings cannot
find aggressive suitors, and solid guys like Kyle Lowry, Ramon Sessions,
Goran Dragic, George Hill, Jose Calderon, Devin Harris, and others all earn
less than Holiday will on average over the length of his contract. But most
of those guys come with warts a great team could expose over a playoff
series, and two playoff contenders last season were starting Mike James and
Mo Williams, respectively, for large chunks of the season.
对七六人来说,他们则在赌很多东西—像是Noel的健康、鹈鹕会继续沉沦、还有
「找一个能取代 Holiday八成效能的控球比找下一个 Tyson Chandler 简单」这
件事。联盟里有很多像 Teague 或 Jennings 之类的好控球乏人问津,也有很多
合约比 Holiday小张的合格控球,像是Kyle Lowry、Ramon Sessions、Goran
Dragic、George Hill、Jose Calderon、Devin Harris等等。而这些球员大部分
都在乐透球队打球,进季後赛的球队里却有两只大半季的时间是由 Mike James
和 Mo Williams先发。
(待续...前面全都是讲这笔交易的逻辑。後面才是讨论鹈鹕要面对的课题)
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 67.187.92.197
1F:推 g820215:西装种类最多的教练XD 07/11 17:29
2F:推 mashburn:感谢翻译!! 07/11 22:39
3F:推 reversy:有可能摆很矮的先发出来 07/12 00:09
4F:推 CW4:相情况不对会在明星周末以後赶进度拿前五顺位的 07/12 03:19
5F:推 reversy:Worldpeace要不要抢 07/12 09:26
6F:推 PJBrown42:不要,我们这种年轻的球队需要球员把专注力放在场上 07/12 10:11
7F:→ PJBrown42:阿泰不是不好,但是他有的没的新闻太多,跟我们不合 07/12 10:12
8F:→ MRight:窝屁的正职根本是推特写手吧 XD 07/12 10:34
9F:推 citcal:夏盟第一战 小河打的像王牌一样.... 07/13 10:00
10F:推 eliczone:24分7助攻6篮板 已经是去年全部总和 07/13 10:58
11F:推 choroq3:恭喜改版名成功 07/13 11:18
12F:推 eliczone:Eric Snow可能会加入教练团 07/13 11:52
13F:推 Rover:小河去年夏联打超差的 今年却这麽威 脱胎换骨了? 07/13 12:49
14F:→ Rover:不过他受伤前就已经慢慢进入状况了 最後一场打湖人打很好 07/13 12:50
15F:→ Rover:然後...比赛还没结束就受伤,整季报销了... 07/13 12:51
16F:推 CW4:希望他养得起来 07/14 03:00
18F:推 TT123:Rivers身体练起来了,对抗性增加後再配上原本就很好的持球能 07/14 23:23
19F:→ TT123:力,就有明显的提升....去年的切入几乎都是被撞倒、撞歪 07/14 23:24
20F:→ TT123:最後只能投外线,变成打铁师父 07/14 23:26
21F:→ TT123:暑假功课应该还是以持续增加对抗能力 07/14 23:28
22F:推 citcal:J. Withey火锅能力真的不坏.... 07/16 20:50