※ [本文转录自 Celtics 看板] 作者: SexyCassell (其实我很帅) 看板: Celtics 标题: [外电] Paying Big For Posey 时间: Thu Jul 17 22:55:18 2008 More than a pocketful for Posey in this lucrative deal By John Hollinger (ESPN Insider) July 16, 2008 http://0rz.tw/9a4si 来看看ESPN的专家对posey这笔交易的看法 ----------------------------------------- You knew this was coming -- the inevitable overreaction to a role player on a championship team in free agency. Every year there's one guy whom teams can't stop fawning over, and this year it was James Posey. Sure, he was an integral part of championship teams for both Miami and Boston, but as with a lot of players who win rings it can be hard for us to look at him rationally. That's why role players on title winners tend to get unusually generous contracts, and Posey appears to be the latest example. The same guy who inked a two-year deal (the second was a player option) for just a portion of the midlevel exception last summer to join the Celtics suddenly finds himself enriched with a four-year, $25 million deal by the Hornets. If that seems excessive for a 31-year-old who hasn't averaged more than 8.1 points per game in any of the past four seasons, it's because it is. It's true that Posey brings three things to the table: defense, rebounding and 3-point shooting. He's not an all-defense guy, but he's an above-average defender who can play multiple positions, and that's certainly helpful. So are the 3s -- in his past three campaigns he's hit 40.3 percent, 37.5 percent and 38.0 percent from downtown. And he's an underrated defensive rebounder who had the third-best defensive rebound rate among small forwards last season. But those strengths need to be seen in the context of the bigger picture. The guy has all but abandoned shooting anything besides a 3 -- two-thirds of his shots were triples, the fourth-highest rate in the league and the highest among nonguards -- so despite the 3s, he's a fairly inert offensive player. And, as I mentioned, he's a 31-year-old who will be handsomely paid 'til age 35. Nobody wanted to pay him this kind of dough when he was 30, and his production wasn't any different last year -- just the result in June. And since this is so hard for people to remember, I'll say it again: The Hornets aren't paying for what Posey gave the Celtics last year, or what he gave the Heat in 2006, but for what he can potentially give the Hornets from 2008 to 2012. And that production is likely to diminish substantially from its already modest levels. Comb through the books and try to find perimeter players who played well until 35 -- it's tough. Now try to find some who played well 'til that age after scoring single figures in their 20s. Good luck. For better insight into Posey's future, let's take a look at what happened to some similar players -- those who rated as statistically similar based on their performance at the same age, played primarily on the wing and were in his league as a defender. The top names on that list are Bryon Russell, Dan Majerle, Jaren Jackson, Rick Fox and Raja Bell. ‧ Majerle declined sharply starting at 30 and had his last useful season at 32. ‧ Jackson had a quality season at 32 but played 25 games the rest of his career. ‧ Russell lost it at 31 and never got it back, though he managed to hang around for four more years. ‧ Fox played reasonably well until 33 and then lost it, hard, and was out of the league by 35. Swim deeper in the similarity pool and you'll find similar stories from Walter McCarty, Shandon Anderson, Lucious Harris, Doug Christie, Eddie Jones and Aaron McKie. Yes, you'll find a couple exceptions if you look hard enough, most notably Mario Elie and Bruce Bowen. But the big-picture takeaway is that most players decline sharply between ages 31 and 35, and if Posey wasn't that good at 31 he's likely to be unplayable by the time he's 35. That's why nobody else wanted to give him four guaranteed years. First, it doesn't address their main weaknesses. New Orleans badly needs additional frontcourt depth and it seemed only reasonable that it would use the midlevel exception to address that need. If not a frontcourt player, one presumed the Hornets would at least use the midlevel to target a shooting guard, where Morris Peterson was up and down this past season. Perhaps they think Posey can play the 2 full time, but that seems a major stretch for a guy who has played almost exclusively the 3 and 4 with Miami and Boston. Second, Posey creates a playing-time problem because he's a natural 3 who can swing to the 4 in small-ball lineups -- just like their 2007 first-round pick, Julian Wright. Presumably Wright will now be buried on the bench -- even though he was immensely productive in his limited minutes last season and figures to be better in his second season. As for Boston, losing Posey certainly was a blow, but it was correct not to match the Hornets' overreaction. If Tony Allen comes back healthy he can replace a lot of the defensive mettle Posey provided, while the hope is that rookies J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker can also fill in some of the departed production. And if those options don't work out, of course, it's easier for the Celtics to sign or trade for a replacement if they're not saddled by a long-term midlevel commitment to Posey. So I'm not a big fan of his move. The Hornets have the nucleus of an outstanding team with Chris Paul, David West and Tyson Chandler, but I worry that they're forcing the issue with big-money veteran signings like Posey and Peja Stojakovic two years ago instead of a more patient approach. The fact that this move didn't address any apparent need, while overpaying a player who seems certain to decline, only makes it more puzzling. New Orleans has enough talent on hand that the Hornets may very well make a deep playoff run anyway, but it's hard for me to see how this improved their odds much. ------------------------------ 以下是阿陆仔的翻译，经本人修正整理如下： 每当一支球队夺得总冠军之後，队中的角色球员不可避免的会受到过度吹捧。 每年都有一个家伙被其他球队趋之若鹜，今年的这个家伙是James Posey。的确，在热火和 塞尔提克的夺冠过程中他都起到了很重要的作用，但是一旦他戴上了冠军戒指，我们就很难 理性的看待他的价值。这就是那些冠军队的角色球员往往能够获得肥约的原因，Posey就是 最新的一个例子。去年夏天和塞尔提克签下两年合约时，他的薪水还只有中产阶级合同金额 的一半，今年夏天，他突然发现自己可以从黄蜂那里得到一份4年价值2500万的大合同。给 一位场均得分不超过8.1分的31岁老将这样一份肥约，实在有些过分。 没错，Posey的防守，篮板以及三分能力能够帮助黄蜂。他并不是一个只会防守的肉盾，而 是一个能力在平均水平以上的防守型摇摆人。过去三个赛季，他的三分球命中率分别是 40.3%，37.5%，38.0%。而且他还是一个被低谷的後场篮板好手，上赛季他的篮板效率排在 联盟所有小前锋中的第三位。但是他只有在一支强队中才能展现以上优点。他有浪投三分的 毛病，他的所有出手中有三分之二是三分球，这个比例是联盟所有球员中第四高的。不管他 的命中率有多好，他的进攻态度的确有些懒惰。而且，他已经31岁“高龄”，直到35岁时， 他都可以领着一份非常体面的薪水。上赛季，他的资料并没有有什麽大的变化，仅从常规赛 来看，没有人会想给这样一个30多岁的老将那麽多的钱，但是6月份的结果使情况发生了改 变。 在此，我不得不强一点：黄蜂花的这笔钱并不是因为Posey在塞尔提克或者热火夺冠期间作 出的贡献，而是因为他在2008-2012年为可能会黄蜂做出的贡献，这种贡献很有可能会越来 越小。翻一下NBA名册，你就会发现35岁还能有出色表现的球员屈指可数。至於那些20多岁 时得分只有个位数的球员中几乎没有人能够在35岁打出高水准。为了更好的预测Posey的未 来，我们来看看那些年龄，资料，场上位置都与他类似的球员在职业生涯末期的表现。这份 名单中包括Bryon Russell, Dan Majerle, Jaren Jackson, Rick Fox ,Raja Bell. Bell仅仅比Posey大一岁，上赛季他的状态明显下滑；Jackson在32岁那年打了一个不错的赛 季，但是接下来的几个赛季他总共才打了25场比赛；Russell从31岁开始失去状态，再也没 有能够找回，虽然他一直混到35岁才退役；在33岁之前，Fox一直表现不错，但是从那以後 他就开始下滑，最终在35岁时退役。还有很多例子，比如Walter McCarty, Shandon Anderson, Lucious Harris, Doug Christie, Eddie Jones and Aaron McKie.。当然，你 可以找到一两个例外的人，最着名的就是Mario Elie and Bruce Bowen。但是绝大多数球员 都是在31岁到35岁之间开始下滑的，如果Posey在31岁之前没有达到Bowen那种状态，那麽他 很可能在35岁之前退役。这就是其他球队不愿意给他四年保障合同的原因。 此外，从黄蜂的前景来看，我对这笔交易还有两点疑问：首先，签下Posey并没有填补黄蜂 阵容中的最大漏洞-内线板凳深度，要想解决这个问题，黄蜂起码得付出一份中产阶级合同 。如果找不到好的内线替补，鉴於上赛季Morris Peterson起伏不定的状态，黄蜂就应该把 这笔钱招来一个得分後卫。也许他们认为Posey能够出任首发得分後卫，但是Posey在热火和 塞尔提克期间主要是在大小前锋两个位置上摇摆，要他打得分後卫显然有些勉为其难。其次 ，Posey引起了黄蜂内部在上场时间分配上的矛盾，黄蜂去年选中的首轮新秀Julian Wright 和Posey位置重叠，新赛季Wright可能会要在板凳上虚度光阴，即便上赛季他在有限的上场 时间里效率非常高，很多人也看好他今年会有很大进步。 对塞尔提克而言，失去Posey当然是一大打击，但是他们不匹配黄蜂报价的决定是正确的。 如果Tony Allen保持健康的话，他能够揽下Posey走後留下的大部分防守任务，J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker能够分担一部分。如果以上三人都不堪重用，塞尔提克也能通过 先签後换的方式找到一个合适的替代者。我并不看好黄蜂的这个签约。黄蜂有一套非常杰出 的核心组合Chris Paul, David West and Tyson Chandler，但是我担心类似Posey和Peja Stojakovic的巨额烂合同会影响球队以後的引援工作。这笔交易并没有解决黄蜂的当务之急 ，只是给了一位元状态铁定会下滑的老将一份过高的合同。黄蜂已经有了向明年的西部冠军 发起猛烈冲击的资本，我实在看不出这笔交易对他们有多大的帮助。 ---------------------------------------- 基本上我个人是部份同意这个专家的论点 虽然我也很喜欢POSEY，不过POSEY要的长约和价码老实说我觉得是有稍微多一点了 尽管很多人都说很值得 囧 嘛~~见仁见智罗 # --

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