※ [本文转录自 nfsong 信箱] 作者: greengreen42 (绿) 看板: Gossiping 标题: [新闻] Bloomberg报导张金颚跟信义认为台北是大泡沫 时间: Thu May 20 15:13:17 2010 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=axrlk9y9Hi2s 本文采用高速翻译法 May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell Taipei property now, taking advantage of a 21-month rally in prices before the government acts to make real estate more affordable, according to the Taiwan Real Estate Research Center and the island’s largest real-estate brokerage. 张教授主持的不动产研究中心跟台湾最大房仲信义房屋说狂涨後该卖喽 “Sell them now or at least in the second half of the year,” said Chin-Oh Chang, director of the Taiwan Real Estate Research Center at the National Chengchi University in Taipei. “The market is relatively unstable now.” Prices in Taiwan’s capital have risen 29 percent to a record since September 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. deepened the global credit crisis. The gain has increased voter anger over prices and prompted the island’s central bank to pledge to prevent asset bubbles, triggering a 12 percent slump in construction shares from their high last month. 以上都是张教授的老调，反正看空就对了 Taipei is “an asset bubble,” Lee Jain-Ming, a researcher at Sinyi Realty Co., told a Bloomberg Real Estate Forum in Taipei yesterday. The government may try to lower prices before municipal elections in December, he said. 信义说他们觉得五都选举前打房戳破泡沫的可能性高 The Financial Supervisory Commission in March asked bankers to tighten lending procedures and ensure the quality of loans after banks on the island of 23 million people last year cut mortgage lending rates to the lowest since records began. The same month, Bank of Taiwan Governor Perng Fai-nan said he would impose “prudent” measures to prevent the emergence of asset bubbles. 三月开始收紧银行对不动产放款了 彭总裁说他要开始认针考虑避免泡沫产生 Market Risk In the past three months, state-owned Land Bank of Taiwan and Bank of Taiwan have raised mortgage rates and cut the amount of loans for buyers of luxury homes and property investors. Farglory Land Development Co., the island’s largest construction company by value, has dropped 9.6 percent in 2010 after surging 196 percent last year, when average home prices in Taipei rose 20 percent. 土银跟台银都觉得是大泡沫开始紧缩放款 国银一缩，雄哥的脸都绿了 While the property market may still see increases in prices in the second half of the year, Chang said there are risks ahead of the elections, in which the ruling Nationalist party will try to defend its hold on Taipei and gain the mayoralty of both Kaohsiung and Tainan. “The government may take some action before the elections that may cool prices,” Chang said. “Don’t sell when prices are already low. Sell before that.” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Barclays Plc have also forecast the central bank will raise interest rates next month. Barclay’s Singapore-based economist Wai Ho Leong has predicted a 12.5 basis-point increase in rates at the central bank’s June meeting. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. 美国跟英国最罩的银行都说台湾央行下个月可能会升息 新加坡仔说会升五码，我个人觉得很豪洨 “The central bank may raise rates soon,” Lee said. “If the central bank raises rates by 12.5 basis points, prices may go down in the following two to three months.” 他说一升下一季就会跌 == 一升息就会爆差不多是目前房地产投资人的普遍认同 只是他们都觉得一两年内都不会升啦 我是觉得彭总裁一向秉持『你猜不到我会干嘛』的理念 所以我不觉得会升贴现率 而是会升准备率 -- "You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes." http://pic.pimg.tw/tkchen/4a2db2dbc29ff.jpg --

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