※ [本文转录自 NBA 看板 #1De7QPZY ] 作者: cat0806 (Cater) 看板: NBA 标题: [外絮] 让我们来看看谁是未来名人堂成员？ 时间: Sat Apr 9 23:09:10 2011 Future Hall of Famers? Let the debating begin 注：这篇和 【#1Dd9XnOW [外絮] Vince Carter，下一站名人堂？】 是同一作者 作者所引用的名人堂指数皆来自BBR，并非作者自行杜撰：http://tinyurl.com/7x5hbw (点进去後，神米真的是5.5%无误......) The names I’ve heard most often in the past 48 hours: 最近48小时内，我所听到最多可能的名字如下： ‧ Chris Webber (Hall of Fame probability: 72.95 percent) I was surprised when Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com told me that several NBA insiders, including past Hall voters, couldn’t agree on Webber’s candidacy when he spoke to them. A personal aside: For me, as long as a player hits a minimum benchmark of longevity as an elite guy, I prioritize quality over counting stats. Webber’s counting stats aren’t super-impressive; he finished with “only” 17,182 points, just behind Jeff Malone, and he made “ only” five All-Star Games. The latter, of course, can be explained in part by how crowded the power forward field has been in the Western Conference for the past 15 years. Health was always an issue, and Webber was nearly done as a star player by the time he turned 30. There are also holes in C-Webb’s “clutch” résumé in both college and the pros. But in terms of quality? Webber was one of the game’s truly great all-around players for a half-decade in Sacramento, and he was very good before he arrived there via one of the best trades in recent league history. No big man had quite the same all-around skill set, and none were more pleasing to watch. Toss in the Fab Five cultural relevance, and Webber, to me, belongs — even if he looked terrified of shooting down the stretch of this game. Chris Webber (名人堂可能性：72.95%) 让我惊讶的地方在於，NBA球探Scott Howard-Cooper告诉我，他与多位NBA内部人士 (当中有几位是名人堂成员)讨论的结果，Webber甚至连进入候选名单的资格都没有。 在我看来，只要一名球员达到了作为优秀球员的最低职业生涯时间，我会优先考虑 他们的个人数据，作为进名人堂的标准。 Webber的生涯数据并非如此耀眼，生涯总得分仅17182分，仅次於Jeff Malone。 另外，只有5次入选全明星赛。当然这可以解读成过去15年西部出了太多优秀的大前锋。 健康也是其因素，30岁的Webber基本上已跟退休没两样了。且在Webber的大学时期& 职业生涯里也存在着缺陷。 但入选资格方面，当时的五年内，Webber在国王队里称得上是真正全能的伟大球星之一。 透过近几年最有价值的交易，Webber来到了国王，在交易前他出色得无法被取代，那时 没有一个大个子可以像他那样拥有全面的技术，也没有人能像他那样打出具观赏性、 行云流水般的比赛。密西根五虎之名深植人心。在我看来，Webber完全配得上名人堂 的荣誉，尽管他的投篮并不是那麽地完美。 ‧ Mitch Richmond (HOF probability: 67.01 percent) And now we turn to the guy at the other end of Sacramento’s Webber heist. If borderline candidates Carter and Reggie Miller (more below) make it to Springfield, Richmond would stand to take over as the highest-scoring player outside the Hall. He ranks 39th all time with 20,497 points, and only four guys scored more points during the 1990s. Richmond made six straight All-Star Games, but he spent most of his career on so-so or poor teams and he was never really a top-level player; his shooting was only decent, his Player Efficiency Rating cracked 20 in just two seasons and the non-scoring parts of his game topped out at league average. He’s going to have a tough time. Mitch Richmond (名人堂可能性：67.01%) 再看看Webber名人堂路上另一个强劲对手，如果以Vince Carter和Reggie Miller为进入 名人堂的基准线的话，那麽Richmond将是非名人堂成员里得分最高的，他以20479分排在 联盟史上第39位。过去10年里，能在得分超过他的只有4位。生涯6次入选明星赛， 但由於大部分时间皆待在中低层球队，其实称不上是顶级球员。投篮方面还算OK，效率值 只有两个赛季低於20 ，比赛的非得分部分则超出了联盟的平均值。 ‧ Reggie Miller (HOF probability: 5.5 percent) That probability figure is not at typo, and it is quite jarring; Richard Hamilton scores better on Basketball-Reference’s scale. That’s in part because Miller was a one-dimensional player who didn’t accumulate anything other than points, never made a first- or second All-NBA team and was never more than an average defender. But Miller’s 25,279 points tie him with Rick Barry for 17th all time, and guys who have scored that many points simply don’t get left out of the Hall — at least historically. Miller obviously deserves extra credit for his cold-blooded work in the clutch and perhaps for being one of the first players to make a consistent weapon out of the three-point shot — something the probability metric does not precisely take into account. I suspect Miller will get in, sooner rather than later, but he’s an interesting case. Reggie Miller (名人堂可能性：5.5%) 不要怀疑你看到的数字，虽然足以令人目瞪口呆。相较之下，Richard Hamilton比Miller 进入名人堂的指数还高，因为Miller做为进攻的终结者，在比赛中除了得分更多之外， 基本上其他方面并没突出的地方。且Miller从来也没进过联盟第一队或第二队，防守能力 也在联盟平均水准之下。 但Miller生涯得分高达25279分，和Ricky Barry并列史上第17名。在场上扮演冷血的 狙击手角色，以及始终维持高命中率的三分球武器，这都很难用标准去衡量，他应该 为这些能力得到相应的荣耀。我并不看好Miller能进名人堂，但他的事蹟将为後人所 传颂不朽。 ‧ Alonzo Mourning (HOF probability: 47.2 percent) He has fewer points (14,311) than Rod Strickland, Allan Houston and Hersey Hawkins! He logged more than 70 games just twice after he turned 26, injuries ended his time as a star by the time he turned 30 and he always ranked below at least a few guys on the league’s center totem pole. But many forget how good this guy was in his prime. He topped the 20 mark in PER in each of first eight seasons, logging a close-to-normal number of games in each one, and his PER reached the mid-20s in 1998-99 and the following season; he ranked in the league’s top four in that category in both of those seasons. He was a monster on the offensive glass, and if he shot too often, he at least shot pretty well. Mourning won the Defensive Player of the Year award twice and ranks as one of the true greats on that end. Seven All-Star appearances and a notable career at Georgetown will help. He’s going to get a really close look. Alonzo Mourning (名人堂可能性：47.2%) Mourning生涯总得分14311，甚至还低於R.Strickland、A.Houston和H.Hawkins。 26岁後，单季出赛70场以上的只有2个赛季，30岁过後，伤病几乎毁了他的职业生涯。 因为在联盟中锋排行榜上，他始终落後於那几个球员。 很多人不会忘记巅峰时期的Mourning是多麽风光，个人数据总是排在联盟前20，每个赛季 都能完整地打完所有比赛。98-99年和99-00年，Mourning场均得分来到了20以上，个人 得分排行连续两年排在了联盟前四，名副其实的禁区进攻怪物。如果他常投篮，估计 他的准头不差。生涯两次入选最佳防守球员，七次明星赛，由於乔治城大学的出色表现， Mourning离名人堂越来越近了。 ‧ Dikembe Mutombo (HOF probability: 32.8 percent) If Dennis Rodman (HOF probability: 45.5 percent) can get in, Mutombo, an immensely popular guy known for his wonderful charity work, is going to have at least a decent case. He ranked among both the league’s top offensive and defensive rebounders, won two rebounding titles and four Defensive Player of the Year awards, and made eight All-Star teams. He was never much of an offensive threat apart from tip-ins, but he knew his role and got to the line a fair amount. Dikembe Mutombo (名人堂可能性：32.8%) 如果Dennis Rodman (名人堂指数：45.5%，好吧，已经进了) 成功进入名人堂，那麽 Mutombo---这个因为慷慨的慈善事业而享有相当高人气的球星进入名人堂的可能性也是 很可能的。他是联盟中数一数二抓进攻&防守篮板的高手，两次获得赛季最高的场均篮板 数，4次当选联盟最佳防守队员，八次入选全明星赛。 他并不是进攻端的得分机器，而 他知道自己在比赛中的角色，努力完成自己的任务。 ‧ Tracy McGrady (HOF probability: 66.98 percent) McGrady has a bit of Gale Sayers thing going on. Injuries ended his time as an All-Star before he turned 28, and he’s clearly never going to approach that level again. But he had a five-year run where he was perhaps the game’s most accomplished scorer/passer (pre-LeBron), peaking in 2002-03, when he became one of the only players ever to crack the 30 barrier in PER. He carried his offense while posting an absurdly low (downright Nowitzkian, actually) turnover rate considering the circumstances. He shot too often, and from too far away, but the guy produced offensively like few others ever have. His work on the other end never approached such a high level, and McGrady will be remembered just as much for his injuries, his (way overblown) playoff failures and his admittedly shaky work ethic. Tracy McGrady (名人堂可能性：66.98%) T-MAC的经历和Gale Sayers有类似的地方，当28岁时，伤病提前结束了他的全明星生涯， 再回回去到到原来的巅峰期了。在他最辉煌的五年中，他可能是联盟中最出色的得分手和 助攻者（在LBJ出现之前），02-03年达到了个人生涯巅峰，那时的T-MAC场均得分超过了 30分。出色的得分能力，极低的失误比。他远距离投篮的次数相当多，但他进攻威胁力却 是很少球员可以相提并论的。T-MAC的生涯注定无法成就辉煌，而他将因为伤病、失败的 季後赛经历以及消极的打球态度被世人所铭记。 ‧ Grant Hill (HOF probability: 41.5 percent) Hill was basically a LeBron-lite all-around star before severe ankle problems put his career on hold and eventually transformed him into a nice complementary player. But he has lasted in that role, and he could pass or approach Magic Johnson, Webber and Chris Mullin in total points if he stays healthy and plays another season or two. He’s become one of the league’s most versatile defenders, and even if that versatility was borne from necessity in defense-challenged Phoenix, Hill has pulled the role off well. He ’s well-liked, threw the most famous successful inbounds pass ever in the greatest game of any kind I’ve ever watched and stands as an all-time great college player. Another interesting case. Grant Hill (名人堂可能性：41.5%) 在脚踝受伤之前，Hill是类似於LeBron James这样的全能型球员，然而伤病最终让他 不得不转变成一名出色替补球员。现在他一直坚持着完成这个角色，这样他很有可能在 总得分追上甚至超越Magic Johnson、C.Webber和Chris Mullin，但这一切都要在他保持 健康的前提并再打年的前提下。 他是联盟中最全面的防守球员之一，他也会把这种角色继续承担下去，即使这种全面是 迫於防守能力不足的太阳队所需要。作为球队的联结者，他曾经创造了一个最着名最成功 的传球，这是我这麽多年在重要比赛中看到最精彩的一次传球，同时他也是名伟大的大学 球员，而这是另一段有趣的故事了。 ‧ Manu Ginobili (HOF probability: 13.5 percent) Manu’s almost 34 and he hasn’t yet reached the 10,000-point level, so he’s just not going to have the NBA résumé to make a realistic case. But he’s worth at least a mention, given his international record with Argentina, his crucial role on three championship teams and the fact that he has consistently been one of the league’s best two-way players when healthy. He just hasn’t been healthy enough, and that can torpedo your Hall chances when you don’t enter the league until your mid-20s. Manu Ginobili (名人堂可能性：13.5%) 已经快34岁的Manu，生涯总得分还没有超过一万分(9662)，所以这是个是他很难在NBA 史上留名的现实因素，却又是一个不得不提的球员，他是阿根廷篮坛的历史创造者， 在马刺的三次冠军中扮演着不可或缺的角色，健康的他还是联盟里最出色的侧翼球员。 然而可惜的是他不能常保持健康，另外一点就是，如果25岁之前还没有进入联盟，那麽 这会大大降低你入选名人堂的可能性。 ‧ Steve Nash (HOF probability: 39.6 percent) He’s absolutely going to get in, given his two MVP awards, his status as perhaps the greatest shooter ever and the fact that if you have a healthy Steve Nash on your team, your offense will be guaranteed to rank among the league’s best. But it’s interesting that his score on the Basketball-Reference scale is so low, isn’t it? He suffers a bit from never having won a title, and for never having been even an average defender for his position – a position, it should be noted, that has been nearly impossible to defend individually since the league banned hand-checking. Still: Nash would tell you his defense has never been very good, and at its worst, it has been a giant handicap in Phoenix, as the Suns constantly scramble to find places Nash can hide. Steve Nash (名人堂可能性：39.6%) 两届MVP的Steve Nash，毫无疑问地的将会入选。他很可能是至今最棒的射手，如果你的 队伍中拥有健康的Nash，那麽队伍的攻击能力肯定是联盟之冠。 但是他在总排名上如此 的低，这难道不有趣吗？ 从来没有拿过冠军，这让Nash处於劣势。低於联盟水平的防守 能力，也是一个关键点。 在联盟禁止Hand-check之後，他几乎防不住任何球员。Nash 不会告诉你，他的防守有多糟，但这正好是重要的一点，它成为了太阳前进的巨大障碍。 因此，太阳队正千方百计地寻找一个弥补Nash防守漏洞的方法。 That’s the list, for now. Who else should be here, readers? 以上就是所有名单了，乡民还想到谁？ http://goo.gl/IvNpx -- 神米会不会被瞧得太扁了...... --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.143.172 ※ wadecp3:转录至看板 MiamiHeat 04/09 23:19 ※ wadecp3:转录至看板 PHX-Suns 04/09 23:19 感谢h大提供连结 ※ 编辑: cat0806 来自: 118.160.143.172 (04/09 23:44) --

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