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Pacers Face Crossroads at Midseason 溜马在季中面临十字路口 By Conrad Brunner | Jan. 25, 2006 翻译:gonzdevour -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This isn't just the midpoint of the season. It's the crossroads. 这不只是本赛季的中间点,而是十字路口。 Dealing with a relentless procession of injuries and Ron Artest-related distractions for the second season in a row, the Pacers are 21-20 and mired in a protracted slump that has brought four consecutive losses and six in eight games. 连续第二个球季面对无情的伤病以及阿泰惹出的麻烦事, 溜马总计21胜二十败,并且陷入了低潮的泥淖, 四连败,在八场比赛中输了六场。 As disappointing, frustrating and occasionally maddening as this season has been, however, the situation is anything but hopeless. Though the Detroit Pistons are out of reach, dominating the Eastern Conference with a 34-5 record, no one else has broken away. Though the Pacers are tied for sixth, they're just two games out of fourth, which offers homecourt advantage in the first round. 虽然本季已经令人沮丧、挫折、甚至抓狂,但状况并非绝望。 虽然底特律活塞远在天边,以34胜5败的佳绩主宰了东区,但一切总得按部就班。 虽然目前(与76人)并列第六,但跟第四名只有两场胜差; 只要取得第四就能够在季後赛第一轮取得主场优势。 And so, as we look ahead to the second half of the season, we take a look at the numbers that have shaped the first half as well as the problems, and potential solutions, they reveal. 如是,当我们放眼下半季时, 回头看看那呈现上半季种种问题的数字,那麽可能的答案就会浮现。 FOR STARTERS, THE STARTERS: By now, you probably know the Pacers have used a lot of different lineups (19) and that no one group has stayed together very long (since Artest's de-activation, no group has lasted longer than six games). Given the constant flux, it's difficult to get a handle on which group has played the best together, but deeper analysis reveals indicators as to who is best suited to play where. [关於先发阵容]: 此刻,你可能知道溜马采用了许多不同的阵容(19), 而其中没有任何一种运作得够久。(自从阿泰不启用之後,没有一个阵容运作超过六场) 因为经常的变动,很难知道哪一组人马打得最好。 但是更深入的分析会显示球员最适合打哪一个位置。 Though he doesn't like playing the position, Jermaine O'Neal is 12-5 as the starting center and just 5-11 at power forward. Austin Croshere is 15-8 as the starter there. When Croshere and O'Neal have been paired in the frontcourt, the Pacers are 11-4. 虽然小欧不喜欢打中锋,但他在中锋位的成绩是12胜5败,大前锋位则是5胜11败。 战警当先发大前锋时有15胜8败。这两人同时被安排在前场时,溜马11胜4败。 Stephen Jackson has proven much more successful as a shooting guard (16-11) than a small forward (5-9). In Artest's absence, no one has asserted himself as the answer at that position, although rookie Danny Granger (6-5) has showed of promise. 帅脸打得分後卫(16胜11败)比打小前锋(5胜9败)好。 阿泰缺阵时,没有人认为小葛是小前锋位的正确答案,虽然他的确带来了希望(6胜5败)。 Though Jamaal Tinsley has struggled since returning from an injury to his right arm, the Pacers have been substantially better with him in the lineup – but only when he's at full strength. The Pacers won 12 of Tinsley's first 18 starts but have dropped the last three. Anthony Johnson was 8-9, while Sarunas Jasikevicius was 1-2. 虽然小汀归队後表现不佳,溜马实质上还是需要他 - 完全健康的他。 溜马在小汀早先的18次先发中赢了12场,但最近却连输了三场。 老强先发时8胜9败,小叶则是1胜2败。 By the numbers, the best lineup would be Tinsley (12-9 at the point), Jackson (16-11 at shooting guard), Granger (6-5 at small forward), Croshere (15-8 at power forward) and O'Neal (12-5 at center). Interestingly, that group has yet to start together. 按数据,最佳五人应该是小汀(PG)/帅脸(SG)/小葛(SF)/战警(PF)/小欧(C), 诡异的是,这个阵容还没有一起先发过。 STARTS, RE-STARTS PROVING PROBLEMATIC: In a four-game stretch, the Pacers managed to fall into a double-digit hole in the first quarter of each. Though it hasn't happened in the last two, it seems they merely postponed the problem. The Pacers have been outscored 54-28 in the third quarters of the last two games on the way to getting blown out in both. In Atlanta, the Hawks put together a 25-10 run. In Cleveland, the Cavs took it further, scoring 14 in a row to start a 23-2 burst. [关於上下半场开局的问题]: 在四节的比赛中,溜马有十多场输在第一节。 虽然前两场并非如此,但这只是把麻烦拖延到下半场。 溜马前两场比赛的第三节得分总计以54-28落後对手,两场都因为这样而被扫地出门; 在亚特兰大,老鹰打出二十五比十;而在克里夫兰,骑士更过份, 连得十四分,以23-2开始下半场。 There is a common thread to the first- and third-quarter malaises, and it takes us back to our first topic: the starting lineup. Though much has been made of the second unit's strong play of late, that masks the bigger problem of the first unit's protracted slump, regardless of its makeup. In the last 19 games, the starters have been outscored 14 times, by an average of 8.1 points. The team has gone 7-12 in that span. The starters had averaged 70.9 points while going 15-6-1 against their counterparts in the first 22 games, but their output has dropped to 57.4 points since. 上面只是整理出一三节冷感的共通性而已。 问题还是出在我们的第一个主题:先发阵容。 虽然一三节之後会由替补球员的爆发来弥补, 但是这掩盖了更严重的问题:先发的低潮。 抽丝剥茧来看,在过去的十九场比赛中,先发得分落後给别人十四次, 平均落後8.1分,球队7胜12败。 在开季的22场比赛中,先发平均可以得到70.9分, 若仅仅与他们对手的先发阵容相较,有十五胜六败一和。 但自那之後,先发的贡献遽降为57.4分。 THE BEST, AND WORST, THINGS IN LIFE ARE THREES: Among the many indicators of team performance, none has been more consistent than 3-point shooting. In their last 17 losses, the Pacers have gone 79-of-293 from the 3-point line, a woeful percentage of .270. In their last 14 victories, they've gone 122-of-274, a sterling mark of .445. The magic number has settled at seven. When the Pacers make at least seven 3-pointer in a game, they're 14-4. When they do not, they're 7-16. [成也三分败也三分]: 在球队数据的那麽多指标中,没有一个像三分球那麽正相关。 在过去的十七场败仗里,溜马三分球出手293次仅命中79球,命中率为凄惨的.270。 在十四场胜仗中,三分球出手274次命中122球,是镶金的.445。 7是魔法数字;溜马投进七球以上的三分时,14胜4败,七球以下,则7胜16败。 IN NEED OF A REBOUND RELATIONSHIP: Perimeter shooting comes and goes, but productivity in effort categories like rebounding should be a constant. Shouldn't it? Not for the Pacers, who've been wildly inconsistent on the boards. In their 21 victories, they've outrebounded teams 934-870, an advantage of 3.0 per game. In their last 19 losses, they've been outrebounded 847-726, a deficit of 6.4 per game. The Pacers don't need to be a dominant rebounding team to compete. They do, however, need to be consistently competitive on the boards. [篮板球落差尚待合理假设]: 投篮手感难免时有时无,但是努力的产物-例如篮板球, 总该是很稳定的数据吧? 很可惜,这种说法对篮板落差极大的溜马不成立。 在二十一场胜仗中,溜马篮板以934-870领先对手,平均每场多抢了三个。 而在过去十九场败仗中,他们以847-726落後对手,平均每场"被"多抢了6.4个。 溜马不必勉强自己成为一支篮板强队,他们只必须保持一贯的奋战精神。 INDIVIDUAL TRENDS: Though no one on the team qualifies as hot, Jeff Foster has been consistently productive for more than a month, averaging 7.2 points and 8.5 rebounds while shooting 62.1 percent from the field. … Granger had his first double-double with 12 points and 11 rebounds in Cleveland. … David Harrison's time as the starting center could be waning. He has totaled five points, seven rebounds and 12 fouls in his last three starts and has gone Dudley at the free-throw line, missing 12 of his last 13. As a starter, Harrison is 8-of-30 at the line (26.7 percent). … Since battling health issues (he missed three games with pneumonia, three more with a sprained ankle and now has a groin injury), O'Neal's production has dropped. He's averaged 16.0 points and 9.0 rebounds while shooting 43.3 percent from the field in his last eight games. He's gone 12-of-27 from the line (44.4 percent) in the last three. … After being out nearly a month with his right elbow injury, Tinsley has been rusty, averaging 5.5 points on 27.3 percent shooting while totaling more turnovers (13) than assists (11) in four games [个人表现]: 虽然本队没有人可以称得上是火热, 但佛神在这一个多月里有稳定的贡献,平均7.2分与8.5篮板,命中率为.621。 小葛生涯第一次double-double,对上骑士时拿到12分11篮板。 大哈先发中锋的时间可能会被压缩。前三场先发中总计得到5分7篮板12犯规, 并且罚球跟Chris Dudley一样废,过去13罚只有1中。 当大哈先发时,罚球总计为30罚8中,.267的命中率........ 小欧与健康问题缠斗後(肺炎三场,三场以上扭到脚踝,现在则是鼠蹊受伤), 贡献下滑,平均16分9篮板,过去八场比赛的命中率为.433; 过去三场的罚球27投12中,命中率.444....... 小汀养了一个月的肘伤,功力大失。在四场比赛中平均5.5分,命中率只有.273, 且失误了13次,比助攻(11次)还多。 ========================================================================= 算啦,输赢已经不重要了, 只希望後天的比赛是一场精彩的比赛。 --



※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 61.59.237.174 ※ 编辑: gonzdevour 来自: 61.59.237.174 (01/26 08:56)
1F:推 hsupohsiang:好啊~~~ 详细的分析交易以外的球队消息~~ 01/26 09:15
2F:→ hsupohsiang:那句,「急需适合分析溜马队篮板变动的假设」如何?Orz 01/26 09:16
3F:推 icu:谢翻译 这篇好 数字分析的超清楚 01/26 10:23
4F:推 pigface:小欧不适合打大前锋??,可是佛爷要打中锋啊 01/26 12:42
※ 编辑: gonzdevour 来自: 211.74.220.224 (01/26 23:53)







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