Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles By Tim Dierkes [October 24, 2013 at 9:05am CST] Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Orioles are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows. 根据MLBTR预估，拥有仲裁资格的球员薪水大致如下： ‧ Jim Johnson (5.165): $10.8MM ‧ Chris Davis (4.061): $10MM ‧ Matt Wieters (4.129): $7.9MM ‧ Bud Norris (4.068): $5MM ‧ Tommy Hunter (4.066): $3.1MM ‧ Brian Matusz (3.156): $2.1MM ‧ Nolan Reimold (4.004): $1.2MM ‧ Troy Patton (3.150): $1.2MM ‧ Steve Pearce (4.116): $1.1MM ‧ Chris Dickerson (3.133): $700K ‧ Dan Johnson (3.168): Contract includes $800K club option for 2014. If declined, MLBTR's projected arbitration salary is equal to the league minimum $500K. Davis put together a monster, MVP-caliber season: .286 average, 53 home runs, 138 RBI, and 103 runs scored as the Orioles' first baseman. It wasn't from completely out of nowhere, as he hit 33 home runs in 2012. Only 16 other players in baseball history have hit as many home runs in a season, and Davis led MLB in RBI this year as well. Davis今年表现得非常好，这并不完全是蒙到的：他在去年已经有33支全垒打的纪录。在纪录上，只有十六位球员有跟他一样或甚至更多的全垒打，而且他的打点数也是大联盟第一。 This year Matt and I created what we call the Kimbrel Rule in our arbitration projections: a player's raise cannot be more than $1MM more than the previous record raise. Normally Davis' stats would justify a salary close to $11MM, meaning a raise of $7.5MM. The largest raise on record we've found is Jacoby Ellsbury's $5.65MM bump, so with our new rule we're capping Davis' raise at $6.65MM to put him at $9.95MM. We'll call it an even $10MM, since that's a nice benchmark for agent Scott Boras. Can Boras get there? After hitting 54 home runs in 2010, Jose Bautista sought an $8.1MM raise in arbitration, with the Blue Jays countering at $5.2MM for a midpoint raise of $6.65MM, exactly where we've capped Davis. Bautista ultimately signed a five-year, $65MM deal instead, which I don't think is going to happen with Davis and Boras. Boras has done some two-year arbitration year deals, which is more feasible if the Orioles want to avoid the arbitration process after 2014. 我和前面提到设计出预测工具的Matt提出了一个Kimbrel Rule来解释一个情形：一个球员薪水的涨幅不会比之前的最高纪录多出1MM。之前的涨幅纪录是Ellsbury的5.65MM，因此即使预测出来的薪水会落在接近11MM，这意味着涨幅高达7.5MM，但最终加薪额度应该还是会落在6.65MM，因此最终预估的薪资是接近9.95MM，或是会到10MM，因为他有一个好的经纪人Boras。2010年，在击出54发全垒打後，Bautista希望能够加薪8.1MM，蓝鸟则提出5.2MM，其中点正好是6.65MM。Bautista最终签了个五年65MM的约，不过我认为这种事不会发生在Davis和Boras身上。或许金莺可以考虑直接用合约绑人，以避免掉未来的仲裁。 On the strength of a second consecutive 50 save season, closer Jim Johnson is due a large raise as well. This one is more difficult to stomach, as Johnson's salary would exceed our predicted average annual value of free agent closers Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit, and approach that of an elite closer in Joe Nathan. Johnson led MLB in saves in 2012 and tied for the lead in 2013, but he also led MLB in save opportunities each year. This year, in particular, his 84.7% success rate was pedestrian, ranking 23rd among those with at least 15 opportunities. There's an argument to be made that if Kevin Gregg, Brad Ziegler, or Ernesto Frieri received 59 opportunities this year, they would have saved 50 games as well. 有着连两季50次救援成功的表现，Johnson应该也要有实质上的大幅加薪奖励。不过这有点难让人接受，他的薪水应该会超越在FA里的Grant Balfour和Joaquin Benoit，到达Nathan那种境界。Johnson连续两年救援成功都是大联盟第一，不过救援机会相对的也是最多。尤其是今年，成功率只有平凡的84.7%，在所有有15次机会的投手中排在23位。更有人指出，如果让Gregg、Ziegler和Frieri这种级数的人来投，应该也会有同样的表现。 That's not to say Johnson is a bad reliever -- his ERA has been under 3.00 in each of the past three seasons, he maintains a low walk rate, and he gets tons of groundballs. Though he blew nine saves in 2013, any team would be happy to have him in their bullpen in a late inning role. The problem is the salary inflation brought about by saving 101 games over the last two seasons. This doesn't seem to concern Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, who told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com in September the O's will tender Johnson a contract and intend to bring him back in 2014. "He's established himself as one of the top closers in the game," explained Duquette, and I suppose a one-year, high-salary deal is more favorable than the three years he might get on the open market. 这并不代表Johnson是个很烂的救援投手，起码他的ERA在过去三年都压在三以下，并且将保送率维持得很低，而且制造出一大堆滚地球。虽然他今年失手了九次，不过任何球队都还是很欢迎拥有这样一位後援投手。问题在於薪水随着两年来救援成功101次暴增。不过这对Duquette来说并不成问题，他表示将会留下Johnson。而且我认为一纸一年但高薪的合约会比他有可能在球员市场里能得到的复数年合约来的更好。 Wieters is another big Boras case, a year after beating our most aggressive salary projection by almost 20%. The Orioles offered an extension of at least five years around April, but it seems to have fallen short of the player's requirements. Though his counting stats and durability were good in 2013, Wieters' already-low batting average took a dip, as did his walk rate. The result was an unimpressive .287 on-base percentage. Still, Wieters is in line for another solid raise, with free agency looming after 2015. It might be time to consider a trade, if only the Orioles had a ready replacement behind the dish. Wieters是Boras的另一个大案子。金莺在季初曾提出至少五年的约打算绑人，不过看来似乎和要求落差不小。虽然帐面上的数字和耐操这点还是不错的，但Wieters的打击率创新低，保送率也一样，结果是一个非常难看的0.287上垒率。同时，Wieters的薪水还会继续上涨，直到2015年球季结束进FA後。这可能是一个考虑交易他的好时机，如果金莺已经有了备胎（Steve Clevenger？）的话。 Norris, acquired from Houston at the trade deadline, bumped his strikeout rate significantly with Baltimore but also saw his rates of walks, home runs, hits allowed, and ERA rise. He's still penciled in for a 2014 rotation spot. Hunter's first full year in relief went well, with 21 holds. He'll be joined again in the bullpen by Matusz and Patton, who remain affordable. 交易期限前从太空人那找来的Norris到了金莺之後投得跌跌撞撞的，但他应该仍然会是明年先发轮值的一员。Hunter第一个完全担任牛棚投手的球季表现得不错，他会跟Matusz和Patton这些球队仍负担的起的人一起留在牛棚里。 The Orioles removed Pearce from their 40-man roster in December, and he rejoined the club on a minor league deal and made the team out of Spring Training. He had two DL stints for a wrist injury, but was otherwise solid with a .261/.362/.420 line in 138 plate appearances. I think he'll stick around. Pearce有些伤病，不过同时在138个打席中也有.261/.362/.420这样不错的表现，我认为他仍会是阵中的一员。 Reimold, Dickerson, and Dan Johnson are non-tender candidates. Reimold has been limited to 56 games over the last two seasons due to neck issues. Dickerson joined the big club in April after signing a minor league deal in the offseason. He was designated for assignment in July and accepted an outright assignment, getting his 40-man roster spot back in September. Johnson spent most of the year with the Yankees' Triple-A club, landing a minor league deal with the Orioles in late August and later getting into three September games for the Major League team. Reimold、Dickerson和Dan Johnson都是不续约的人选。Reimold因为颈伤，过去两年只出赛56场。Dickerson在四月签了一纸小联盟合约，在七月被DFA，最後在九月又回到四十人名单中。Johnson在八月底跟金莺签了纸小联盟合约，并在九月出赛三场。 If the Orioles tender contracts to Jim Johnson, Davis, Wieters, Norris, Hunter, Matusz, Patton and Pearce, they're looking at an estimated $41.2MM for eight arbitration eligible players. 如果金莺留下Jim Johnson、Davis、Wieters、Norris、Hunter、Matusz、Patton和Pearce，这八个人大概要花掉41.2MM。 资料来源：http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/arbitration-eligibles-baltimore-orioles.html --

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