LINK http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/ reds_signed_hernandez/ shorter URL http://0rz.tw/ed5g5 Saturday, December 13, 2008 Reds - Acquired Hernandez Cincinnati Reds - Acquired C Ramon Hernandez from the Baltimore Orioles for WG Ryan Freel, 2B Justin Turner, and 3B Brandon Waring. Good trade for the Orioles. The Orioles don't save that much money but they pick up a couple of prospects that, while not Top Prospect Listworthy, are a good deal better than the usual salary dump throw-in guys. And at this point, it's essentially a minor salary dump. Ramon Hernandez is no longer the Hernandez of 2003-2006 and while he's not a bad player, he's unlikely to be a huge plus and at his age and skill level, could very easily be the baseball equivalent of GM stock last year. As bad as Paul Bako was, the Reds were only a bit below-average at catcher as a position and Hernandez is a long way from being a guaranteed improvement. The Orioles gain Ryan Freel, whose main skill is being a white guy. He's the type of guy Oriole fans would love, at least when the organization actually had a lot of fans. Freel is the least valuable player in the trade. Justin Turner might be the most valuable player to switch hands in this transaction. Nobody's going to confuse him with Chase Utley, but he does a lot of things fairly well. He's got a little power, gets on base, plays decent defense. He should start the season in AAA given that he's 24. The Orioles shouldn't be penciling Turner in at 2B in their 2010 depth chart, but he's worth paying attention to. Brandon Waring appeared on some prospect lists after a huge professional debut (20 HR in 68 games for Billings), but his follow-up performance at Dayton wasn't anywhere near what you want to see in a 22-year-old prospect. He's a fai 3B, so his glove isn't going to push him to the majors if he doesn't hit more. ZiPS Projection - Ramon Hernandez (C) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 433 49 114 23 1 14 71 35 70 1 .263 .326 .418 91 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Top Offensive Comps: Tony Pena, Gus Mancuso ODDIBE Offense % STAR 12 AVG 54 REP LV 95 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0 >140 1 >.375 4 >5 0 >150 0 >130 2 >.350 21 >120 4 >.325 55 2B % >110 13 >.300 86 >45 0 >100 29 >30 14 >90 53 >80 76 >60 98 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 2 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 1 >.500 4 >40 0 >50 0 >.300 7 >.450 21 >30 2 >30 0 >.275 29 >.400 65 >20 6 >10 0 >.250 68 >.350 95 >10 88 (Based on Projected PA) ZiPS Projection - Ryan Freel (CF) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 283 42 73 16 2 4 19 27 52 18 .258 .332 .371 82 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Top Offensive Comps: Rich Amaral, Pete Fox ODDIBE Offense % STAR 6 AVG 29 REP LV 73 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 1 >10 0 >200 0 >140 0 >.375 9 >5 6 >150 0 >130 1 >.350 32 >120 2 >.325 67 2B % >110 7 >.300 90 >45 0 >100 16 >30 0 >90 32 >80 55 >60 90 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 1 >.500 1 >40 0 >50 0 >.300 7 >.450 7 >30 0 >30 0 >.275 30 >.400 23 >20 0 >10 94 >.250 66 >.350 63 >10 4 (Based on Projected PA) ZiPS Projection - Brandon Waring (3B) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 464 46 110 20 0 16 55 31 121 8 .237 .294 .384 74 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Top Offensive Comps: Brennan King, Kody Kirkland ODDIBE Offense % STAR 6 AVG 29 REP LV 73 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 1 >10 0 >200 0 >140 0 >.375 9 >5 6 >150 0 >130 1 >.350 32 >120 2 >.325 67 2B % >110 7 >.300 90 >45 0 >100 16 >30 0 >90 32 >80 55 >60 90 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 1 >.500 1 >40 0 >50 0 >.300 7 >.450 7 >30 0 >30 0 >.275 30 >.400 23 >20 0 >10 94 >.250 66 >.350 63 >10 4 (Based on Projected PA) ZiPS Projection - Justin Turner (2B) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 474 55 119 19 0 10 49 28 70 9 .251 .297 .354 71 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Top Offensive Comps: Pedro Lopez, Jayson Nix ODDIBE Offense % STAR 4 AVG 11 REP LV 54 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0 >140 0 >.375 0 >5 2 >150 1 >130 0 >.350 3 >120 1 >.325 21 2B % >110 2 >.300 54 >45 0 >100 6 >30 8 >90 16 >80 34 >60 76 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 0 >.500 1 >40 0 >50 0 >.300 4 >.450 4 >30 0 >30 1 >.275 23 >.400 18 >20 4 >10 40 >.250 58 >.350 54 >10 43 (Based on Projected PA) Dan Szymborski Posted: December 13, 2008 at 11:03 AM --

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