Great Expectations http://tinyurl.com/39sjn6 By John Schuhmann Posted Mar 9 2007 12:05PM SECAUCUS, NJ, March 9, 2007 -- Back in December when the Nuggets traded for Allen Iverson, I didn't think it would make them instant title contenders, but I didn't exactly think they'd be 15-21 (.417) since the deal almost three months later either. Now of course, Carmelo Anthony was suspended for the first 14 games of the Iverson era. But they haven't exactly been on a tear since he came back. They're 9-13 (.409) since Melo returned from suspension and just 5-8 (.385) with both of their stars in the lineup. 时间拉回到十二月，金块队交易来Allen Iverson的那一刻，我当时并不认为此交易 会马上让金块队成为夺冠热门；但我的确也意想不到，三个多月以来金块队的战绩 只有15胜21败（胜率0.417）。当然Carmelo Anthony在Iverson到来的时候，还有14 场的禁赛，但是自从Melo归队之後，他们的磨合并无明显效果，金块队自Melo解禁 之後战绩9胜13败胜率（0.409），两位明星同时并肩作战的战绩，只有5胜8败（胜率 0.385）。 So what's the deal? Can we just chalk it up to chemistry? It's the way of Reality Check to look inside the numbers, so let's start with the basics... 那麽这项交易看来如何？我们只能归咎於化学效应尚未发酵？为了找出问题所在， 我们可以从数据表现来看，这是另一个较实际的方法。就从基本攻守数字看起… W L PCT OFF RAT DEF RAT PT DIFF REB DIFF Anthony Only 17 13 .567 110.8 107.6 +2.57 +1.90 Iverson Only 6 9 .400 102.6 104.1 -1.07 +1.53 Iverson & Anthony 5 8 .385 108.1 110.5 -2.00 -3.31 Overall 29 30 .492 108.2 107.2 +0.75 +0.71 OFF RAT = Offensive Rating: The amount of points the team scores per 100 possessions. F RAT = Defensive Rating: The amount of points the team allows per 100 possessions. Notes: 1. The Anthony only numbers include 22 games before the trade and eight games since it, when Iverson was out with sprained ankle. There's not much difference in the two sets of numbers, so we can analyze them together. 2. The Iverson only numbers include 14 games during Anthony's suspension plus this Wednesday's game in Golden State when Anthony was celebrating the birth of his son. The offensive rating on Wednesday was a paltry 97.3 and the defensive rating was an ugly 111.1. 3. The Nuggets played one game without either star, the first game of Anthony's suspension, before Iverson was acquired. So, while Melo was still suspended and as Iverson adjusted to his new team, we see that the offense took quite a hit. An offensive rating of 102.6 is worse than all 30 teams this season (Charlotte is at the bottom with a rating of 103.2). But the defense was improved. In fact, a defensive rating of 104.1 would put you in the top five of the league. But since the no-Melo days are over, let's focus on the numbers with the two stars playing together. 胜 败 胜率 进攻指数 防守指数 得失分差 篮板数差 Anthony Only 17 13 .567 110.8 107.6 +2.57 +1.90 Iverson Only 6 9 .400 102.6 104.1 -1.07 +1.53 Iverson & Anthony 5 8 .385 108.1 110.5 -2.00 -3.31 金块平均 29 30 .492 108.2 107.2 +0.75 +0.71 进攻指数：每一百次进攻机会，可以得到的平均分数。 防守指数：每一百次对手进攻机会，失去的平均分数。 注： 一 ：Anthony Only这行数据包含交易前季初的二十二场比赛，以及Iverson因脚踝 扭伤缺阵的八场比赛。尽管时间点不同，但是数据上并无太大差别，因此把这 三十场比赛归成一类来分析。 二 ：Iverson Only这行数据包含十四场Melo禁赛，以及一场迎接小甜瓜而缺阵，面 对勇士的比赛，共计十五场。而那场比赛的进攻指数有97.3分，防守指数是 111.1分，相当难看。 三 ：金块队只有一场比赛两位球星都缺阵，也就是Anthony禁赛第一场；当时 Iverson未能赶上时间出赛。 Iverson Only时期正是Melo禁赛以及AI初到金块的适应期。由上表来看，当时金块队 的确在进攻方面有满大的问题，102.6的进攻指数比任何球队还差（夏洛特山猫是联盟 中进攻指数最低的，只有103.2），但是这段期间他们防守却进步了，104.1的防守指 数可能会排到联盟前五名。 接下来我们把讨论焦点放在Melo禁赛结束之後，也就是两大巨星同台演出的数据。 The _enver Nuggets The offensive rating with both in the lineup is a solid 108.1, which would keep them at their No. 11 ranking in the league. The defensive rating, however, is at 110.5, which is more than three points higher than their season average and would rank them 26th in the league (their 107.2 rating for the season actually has them in the top half). The _enver Nuggets 他们共同出赛以来，进攻指数是稳定的108.1分，排在联盟第十一名；然而防守指数 却是110.5分，比本季平均还要高出3分，排在联盟第二十六位。事实上金块本季防守 指数107.2分是排在前段班的表现。 In watching a few games in the last couple of weeks, my take on their defense is this: It's not the worst in the league and there are flashes of good D with Marcus Camby's ability to block shots and Iverson's great hands. But they don't exactly help and recover with a lot of energy, so the defense can be broken down pretty easily with ball movement. 根据我这几个礼拜以来观看金块队比赛的看法，他们并不是防守能力最差的球队。 Marcus Camby的火锅能力以及Iverson的抄截能力，是我们偶而可以看到的好防守。 但是金块队并没有确实地把活力投注在互相帮忙防守、补位这方面，所以对方几次 的导传，就可以很轻松地撕裂金块队的防守阵式。 Good ball movement usually results in a high assist-field goal ratio, and if we look at opponents' assist-field goal ratio, the Nuggets have the sixth highest in the league (.610, compared to the league average of .579). Furthermore, in the games that they've had a defensive rating of less than 100 (which is very good), their opponents have an assist-field goal ratio of .606. And in the games that they've had a defensive rating of above 110 (which is very bad), their opponents' assist-field goal ratio has been .627. 流畅的导传往往可以造成高助攻率的得分。如果我们从这方面来看，金块队让对手 助攻得分的机率是61%（联盟平均57.9%），排在联盟第六高；进一步来，看金块队 的防守指数低於100分（非常优秀）的时候，对手的助攻得分率60.6%，而在防守指 数高於110分（非常糟糕）的时候，对手的助攻得分率是62.7%。 So for their opponents, the key to scoring against the Nuggets is pretty simple : move the ball. And for the Nuggets, they need to improve their rotations. 所以对出战金块的队伍来说，要赢过金块得分的关键非常简单：让球流动。相对於 金块来说，他们必须加强在防守端的补防能力。 Troubles on the other side of the ball too Let's look a little closer at the 13 games the Nuggets have played with both AI and Melo. We'll compare the numbers in the wins with the numbers in the losses to see where the biggest discrepancies are... POSS OFF RAT DEF RAT Wins (5) 193.6 115.5 105.3 Losses (8) 193.5 103.5 113.8 POSS = Number of possessions The number of possessions they average in wins and losses is almost identical, so the pace at which they play isn't a factor. But the difference in their offensive rating in wins and losses is 12.0, while the difference in their defensive rating is 8.5. Since we discussed the defense above, let's take a closer look at the offense. 金块队进攻端的麻烦。 让我们拿最近十三场，AI与Melo并肩作战的比赛来看，比较赢球和输球时候的数据， 到底最大的差距是在哪边。 球权次数 进攻指数 防守指数 胜 (5) 193.6 115.5 105.3 败 (8) 193.5 103.5 113.8 不管胜场与败场，金块队进攻机会几乎完全相同，因此要以快或慢的节奏进行攻击 并不是问题所在。赢球时进攻指数比输球多12分；防守指数少8分。 上面我们已经讨论过防守，接下来进一步探讨进攻的问题。 Obviously, the Nuggets want to keep the ball in the hands of Anthony and Iverson. Two of the most common plays they are run are: 金块队显然会把球交在Anthony或Iverson手上，二种金块最常见的打法有： 1. A screen and roll on the left wing with Iverson handling the ball and Carmelo setting the screen. 2. A cross-screen to get Melo the ball on the right block. 一：由Iverson发动攻势，Melo挡人来执行的挡切战术。 二：队友交叉挡人之後，让Melo在有利的位置拿球单打。 Now, obviously, the defense wants to take the ball out of their hands, so Iverson will frequently get double-teamed as he comes off the screen (with a third defender rotating to guard Melo) and Melo will almost always get doubled in the post. This puts the ball in the hands of far inferior offensive players, and if they're not able to catch and shoot, this is where the offense can break down. 显然地，防守者会设法让他们把球传出去，因此在Iverson藉由Melo挡人，从底线 绕出来拿球的时候，就会遭到对方双夹伺候。这时候第三名防守者就必须移动位置 去防守Melo；同样地当Melo在低位拿球，也会有二名球员上前包夹，Melo就得把球 交到攻击力不强的队友身上。如果他们无法拿球後马上出手投篮命中，这次的进攻 组织也在此宣告瓦解。 The return of J.R. Smith will help, but still, the Nuggets need to find a way to be more consistent offensively. One play that they used often (and very successfully) in the second half of their Feb. 28 win over Orlando was a screen and roll on the right wing with Iverson and Nené. This combination was actually more efficient than the Iverson-Anthony screen and roll that they ran more in the first half. J.R. Smith的归队可以帮的上忙，但是金块队仍然需要更稳定的进攻方法。 二月二十八日，金块战胜魔术队的比赛，下半场有一个战术是他们常常使用（而且 非常成功），由Iverson与Nene来执行档切。事实证明，这样的搭配远比金块队 上半场时常利用Iverson-Anthony来执行的效果还好的多。 There are a couple of reasons for this: 1. Nené sets a better screen. 2. Nené is more likely to be a mismatch for the weak-side defender coming over to help. 3. If Anthony is on the floor with them, he provides the defense with a dilemma: stay at home on Melo or help the helper. 造成这样的好效果有下面几项原因： 一：Nene挡人比较确实。 二：对於要来帮忙补防球员来说，Nene这一点较有机会造成mismatch。 三：假如这时候Melo在场上，那麽对方补防就得面对一个进退二难的局面； 紧紧看住Melo，或是进行补防，填补前去帮忙防守Nene的球员所留下来的 防守位置。 On the boards On other thing that we shouldn't ignore is the rebounding differential with both Iverson and Anthony in the lineup. For the season, Denver is the 12th best rebounding team in the league when it comes to differential, but their-3.31 number with both of their stars would put them at 25th. So, let's try to figure out where they're failing specifically. OREB/G DREB/G OREB RATE DREB RATE Iverson & Anthony 10.2 30.7 .246 .706 Overall 12.5 31.1 .292 .710 *OREB RATE = Offensive rebounds / (Offensive rebounds + Opp. defensive rebounds) *DREB RATE = Defensive rebounds / (Defensive rebounds + Opp. offensive rebounds) So, their defensive rebounding rate is down slightly, but their offensive rebounding rate is down almost five percent. If we compare Iverson to Andre Miller, we see that Miller grabs 5.6 rebounds per 48 minutes compared to Iverson's 3.4. So, the change there is a factor, but that probably doesn't tell the whole story. 篮板争夺战。 还有一项我们不能疏忽的数据，就是Iverson与Anthony并肩作战以来，篮板球的差距。 分开来看，丹佛是联盟排名十二的篮板强队。但是如果扣除AI与Melo在场上与全队平 均的差距3.3个，那麽他们将会排到第二十五名。接下来看看，金块队到底在哪边失 去了优势。 平均进攻篮板 平均防守篮板 进攻篮板机率 防守篮板机率 Iverson & Anthony 10.2 30.7 .246 .706 整季平均 12.5 31.1 .292 .710 进攻篮板机率 = 进攻篮板+对手防守篮板，除以进攻篮板。 防守篮板机率 = 防守篮板+对手进攻篮板，除以防守篮板。 金块队防守篮板机率只有略为下滑，但是进攻篮板机率下降五个百分点。如果我们拿 Iverson与Andre Miller比较篮板，平均是每场3.4个比5.6个。所以这样的差别是个 因素，但也许无法完全代表篮板球数下降的原因。 Conclusions? 总结。 The presence of Anthony and Iverson gives the Nuggets two very potent offensive threats, and with bigs that can finish at the rim and a shooter in Smith, they can be an unstoppable scoring team. But they need to be sharper in how they run their offense and more disciplined. They're good in the open court, but they can run into trouble if a secondary break leads to a freelance situation in the halfcourt and the ball is not in the right hands. Anthony与Iverson的携手，是金块队二个非常好的进攻威胁，同时他们也具有关键一击 的能力，加上Smith，金块队是可以变成无人能挡的得分球队。但是他们必须整合出更 有纪律的进攻方式。他们打全场开放性进攻很优秀，但是如果在半场阵地战的二次进攻 机会，流於单打、缺乏组织、无法把球交到正确的球员身上，金块就会有大麻烦了。 More time for Steve Blake could help solve this issue, as he'll keep the ball moving or at least take care of it better than the likes of Yakhouba Diawara or Linas Kleiza. 让Steve Blake有更多上场时间可以帮助改善这个情况。因为他可以保持球的流动性， 或是至少会比Yakhouba Diawara或Linas Kleiza更可以掌握球权，减少失误。 Still, as I outlined above, issue No. 1 is the defense. The Nuggets do not help and recover well enough, so if you move the ball around, you will get a good shot. If Denver wants to make the playoffs and perhaps make a little noise in the first round, they need to put more effort into the D. Becoming a sharper offense will be easier to do as they build that chemistry. 就如文章上面所列，金块队第一问题是防守。他们没有很好的帮忙互相补位的防守。 此外如果他们让球流动，就可以有很好的出手机会。金块队如果想要进季後赛或是想 拥有在第一轮跟强权拼战的能力，他们就必须在防守方更下点功夫。另外当球员之间 的化学效应发酵，要磨合出更好的进攻，会是个比较容易的任务。 --

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