DON'T NATIONALS WANT TO PAY TO PLAY? http://ppt.cc/l0sb Ken Rothansel Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann and shortstop Ian Desmond will combine to earn $27.5 million next season. That is probably about the average annual value it will take to land free-agent right-hander Max Scherzer. If that is the Nats' plan -- trade Zimmermann and Desmond for younger parts, then sign Scherzer -- pretty much everyone would understand. 国民右投JZ与游击Desi明年合计领走27.5M，这也许是FA大物右投Scherzer的个人年均。 如果这就是国民的计画，交易JZ与Desi然後签下Scherzer，似乎大家都可以理解。 But is that the Nats' plan? 但这真的是国民的计画吗？ They certainly appear ready to enact Phase 1, dangling Zimmermann and Desmond in trade talks. Whether they are shopping them or merely listening to offers is unimportant. The real question is whether the Nats are trying to re-allocate resources or reduce payroll. And the answer will reveal much about the intentions of their owner, Ted Lerner. 他们的确准备好启动第一回合，丢出JZ与Desi的交易话题； 不管他们打算来真的或只想听包裹都不重要。 真正问题在国民究竟打算要注资或减资，而答案将随着老板Ted Lerner的意向渐趋明显。 The Nats indeed are open to moving Zimmermann and Desmond, perhaps even in the same deal. They recently engaged in multiple conversations about both players with the Mariners, according to major-league sources. One of the many ideas the Nats proposed was Zimmermann and Desmond for right-hander Taijuan Walker and shortstop Brad Miller, sources said. 国民的确开放交易JZ与Desi，即使两人包在一起。 根据匿名消息指出国民与水手有过数次对话； 许多想法的其中一种，是将JZ与Desi一起打包交换右投台湾走路与游击Brad Miller。 The Mariners balked, unwilling to absorb $27.5 million in salary when they still need to find a right fielder for next season. They also did not want to yield five years of control on Miller and six on Walker while potentially getting both Zimmermann and Desmond for only one year, sources said. 但被打枪了。还在寻找右外野手的水手不愿硬吃27.5M， 还得放弃能控制六年的台湾走路与五年的Brad Miller， 只为了仅能用一年的JZ以及Desi。 The Nationals also had conversations about Zimmermann with the Red Sox and other clubs, again targeting premium young talent, according to sources. Zimmermann’s $16.5 million salary, though, almost certainly would limit the return. Which returns us to the original question: What exactly is the Nats' plan? 国民也与红袜跟其他球团谈到JZ，一样瞄准优质年轻选手。 然而JZ那16.5M的年薪几乎确定将限制国民能收到的回报。 这又将我们带回最原始的问题：国民的计画究竟是什麽？ Here they are, poised to enter the 2015 season with perhaps the most talent in the National League. Yet they keep talking about trading Zimmermann and Desmond . Perhaps they believe that they could win the relatively tame NL East even if they went with younger, cheaper replacements. But that would be a heck of a risk -- and, frankly, a rather arrogant viewpoint. 即将进入2015年的国民也许拥有全NL最高天赋， 然而他们也持续讨论交易JZ与Desi。 也许是相信就算用更年轻便宜的替代品还是能征服平凡无奇的分区。 但这依然存在大把风险，或者更坦白说，有些过於自负。 More likely, the Nats' approach is financially driven. Zimmermann and Desmond are entering their free-agent years, as are right-hander Doug Fister, center fielder Denard Span and reliever Tyler Clippard. That's an unusually large group, and no one should expect the Nats to keep them all. 更进一步看国民的策略乃财政考量。JZ跟Desi都进入FA年， 还包括右投Fister，中外野手Span，右手牛Clippard； 这数量超乎寻常，没人应该期待国民能留住所有人。 What's more, the Nats last season had a club-record Opening Day payroll of $136.8 million, ninth in the majors. This season, through existing contracts and arbitration cases, they are looking at nearly $150 million in commitments. That is hardly a trivial number, but last we checked, the Nat aren't the low-revenue Athletics, needing to constantly turn over their roster. Not even close. 再说了，上季开幕日国民payroll已经是破队史纪录的136.8M，全MLB排第九； 今年透过合约与仲裁更可能上看150M。很难说这是普通的数字。 但我们也知道国民不是收入少需要不断更动roster的运动家，差得远了。 So, what gives? 那麽，是怎麽回事？ The Nats should be proud of what they have assembled, and especially proud of Zimmermann and Desmond, two homegrown stars. True, both have rejected multiple offers to sign long-term, perhaps convincing the Nats they are destined to hit the open market. But even then, why not keep them and take a shot, with a team that is built to win now? 国民该为他们所拥有的感到光荣，特别是JZ与Desi这两个homegrown stars。 没错，他们都回绝过好几张复数年合约，也许这令国民相信他们打算进入FA。 不过就算如此，为何不在球队处於win now模式时将他们留在阵中拼一拼？ In the best-case scenario, Zimmermann and Desmond would perform at their usual high levels and help the Nats get to the World Series; ownership then could pick and choose which potential free agents it wanted to retain. 最好的剧本是JZ与Desi维持他们一贯的高等级表现帮助国民拿下WS， 出钱的届时再来考虑要留谁要放谁。 The worst-case scenario could produce a couple of outcomes, neither of which is so bad. 最糟的剧本将来自两种结果，但每一种都烂透了。 If, for some reason, the Nats underachieved, they could spin Zimmermann, Desmond and others before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. 如果因为某些原因国民被踢出竞争行列，他们能在731前弄走JZ，Desi与其他人。 If Zimmermann and/or Desmond got injured or performed at a subpar level, the Nats would stand a better chance of re-signing them, all while gaining a better idea of what younger players such as right-hander Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Bryce Harper are worth. 如果JZ与／或Desi受伤或低潮，国民更有机会重签他们。 也更有利於将资源分配给更年轻的选手，像小史或Harper。 Oh, there is one other possibility, one that would make the players and fans happy and give the team the best possible chance of sustaining long-term success. 噢，还有另一种能让球员与粉丝大家都开心的可能，球队维持长期成功的机会也最高。 Pay Zimmermann and/or Desmond what they deserve. JZ与Desi值多少就给他们多少。 Yes, it will cost money -- a lot of money, more than $125 million each, according to the estimate of one agent who is not affiliated with either player . Such is life when teams develop stars; payrolls escalate through salary arbitration, and then long-term commitments. The Nats might not like it, but they darned well should understand it. And they should be ready to take the next step. 没错，这很花钱。而且是一大笔钱。 根据一位与此事无关的经纪人估计这两个身价都超过125M。 当你养出一个star，这就是人生。薪资仲裁会加速payroll增长，然後还有长约要给。 国民不会喜欢这种状况但当然也了解，而他们也该准备好走下一歩。 Desmond, 29, is 14.0 wins above replacement the past three seasons, the highest of any shortstop, according to the Fangraphs version of WAR (fWAR). In the past three free-agent classes, Robinson Cano (19.0), Josh Hamilton (16.6) and Jacoby Ellsbury (16.3) were the only free-agent position players with higher three-year WARs. 29岁的Desi根据FG过去三季拥有14.0WAR（fWAR）， 这段时间内FA市场中的position players只有Cano（19.0）， Hammy（16.6）与Ells（16.3）比他更高。 Of that group, Ellsbury received the lowest average annual salary - $21.85 million. Hanley Ramirez since has scored a $22 million average, mostly because of his offensive ability. Well, Desmond is only the fifth shortstop to win three consecutive Silver Sluggers, joining Cal Ripken Jr., Barry Larkin, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. Unlike Ramirez, he actually can play short. He also is far more durable and a far superior leader. Ask anyone close to the team — Desmond is perhaps the most important voice in the Nats' clubhouse. 这群人里Ells的年均21.85M最低，Hanley虽有22M年均但泰半源自於他的打击能力。 Desi连续拿下三季银棒奖，史上只有四人曾达到这个里程碑； Desi加入Larkin，铁人，Jeter与A-Rod成为第五人。 与Hanley不同，Desi确实可以防守游击，更稳定也更具领导者风范。 去问问看球队关系者谁是休息室里最重要的发声筒，八成都选Desi。 Zimmermann, 28, not only is the Nationals' true ace -- over Fister, over Strasburg -- but also grades out, minimally, as one of the 10 or 12 best pitchers in the game. Over the past three seasons, only Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto, Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez rated higher than Zimmermann in ERA-plus -- that is, ERA adjusted to a pitcher's league and ballpark. 29岁的JZ不只是优於小史或Fister的国民true ace， 更可以说至少是联盟最好的前十或12位投手之一。 过去三季只有书僮，Cueto，Sale，国王四人的ERA+好过JZ。 ERA+乃根据联盟与球场做过修正的数据。 Zimmermann also is 10th in baseball-reference.com's version of WAR over that period and 12th in fWAR. He cannot match Jon Lester's postseason accomplishments, but his overall resume dwarfs Homer Bailey’s. Lester got $155 million for six years as a free agent, Bailey $105 million over six in a non-free agent deal. Zimmermann, on the open market, would be closer to Lester -- and still well below Scherzer. BR版WAR统计JZ的WAR在过去三季排名第十，FG版WAR则排12。 他无法比肩Lester的季後赛成就，但总体成绩也能让Homer Bailey相形见拙。 Lester从FA市场捞到6y/155M，还在球团控制下的Bailey则签6y/105M。 进入FA的JZ会更接近Lester，不过依然远低於Scherzer。 So, are the Nats willing to pay or not? 那麽国民到底有没有打算掏钱？ Only once have they spent big in free agency, giving outfielder Jayson Werth a seven-year, $126 million contract after the 2010 season. The team also awarded third baseman Ryan Zimmerman a six-year, $100 million deal in February 2012, but that contract was not top of the market; Zimmerman signed it coming off an injury-marred season and accepted $10 million in a personal-services deal that will start after his playing career is over. 他们只在FA花过一次大钱：2010年季後给Werth一纸7y/126M。 2012年二月球队也给Zim一张6y/100M的合约，但这张不是顶级约。 因为Zim是在受伤痛所扰的球季过後签下， 而球员生涯结束後也能透过personal-services得到10M。 The Nats are fighting with the Orioles over their television rights fees. They just settled a dispute with Harper about whether he should be eligible for arbitration, according to The Washington Post. Such issues aside, Lerner remains one of the wealthiest owners in baseball, and the franchise is incredibly valuable. 国民还在跟金莺打TV权利金大战。 根据华盛顿邮报，仲裁庭将与Harper的合约争议同时开庭。 先撇过这些不谈，Lerner依旧是棒球界最富有的老板之一， 这支球队也拥有非常惊人的价值。 This is no time to retool. Not with a team this good. 既然球队还这麽棒，又何必现在就retool？ Rothansel这篇发表时Harper的合约还没搞定 --

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