http://0rz.tw/bUCmK Dave Cameron There is so much more to managing a baseball team than what we see during the games. We only see the lineups, the batting order, and the pitching changes; we don't see the human interactions, the coaching, and all of the work that goes into keeping so many large personalities pointed in the right direction. Managing a baseball team is about a lot more than just in-game strategy. 执教一支球队要管的事情可多了，不只是下战术而已。 But in-game strategy is part of the job, and on Tuesday night, Matt Williams failed at that part of the job in the most important game of his team's season. And while we cannot know what would have happened if different decisions had been made, we do know that maybe the best team in baseball just got bounced in the first round due, at least in part, to a series of decisions that strain credulity. 但下战术也是总教练工作的一环。MW却在球季最重要的比赛搞砸了。 Let's just walk through the pivotal seventh inning. Bryce Harper had just tied the game in the top half of the inning, so the score was tied at 2-2 with the top of the Giants order coming up. The Giants No. 1 and No. 2 hitters both bat left-handed, so Williams countered with Matt Thornton, the team's only remaining left-handed reliever. Perfectly logical. 来看看关键的第七局。 Harper七局上帮助球队以2-2追平比数，七下轮巨人前段打线。 前两棒都是左打所以MW决定让球队仅剩的左手牛Thronton上场， 逻辑完美。 Thornton got a groundout from Gregor Blanco, then gave up a single to Joe Panik . That put the go-ahead run on base for Buster Posey, the Giants best hitter. The Giants best right-handed hitter. Here is what Buster Posey has done against left-handed pitchers in his career: Thronton以滚地球解决Blanco後被Panik敲一垒安打， 追平分上垒轮巨人最好的打者Posey打击。 他也是巨人最好的右打者， 下面是Posey生涯面对左投成绩： 631 at-bats, 210 hits, 53 doubles, 2 triples, 32 home runs, 61 walks, 77 strikeouts. 631打数 210安打 53支二垒安打 2支三垒安打 32支全垒打 61次保送 77次三振 That's a .333/.393/.578 batting line, which when you account for his home park, translates to a 168 wRC+, meaning that Posey's performance against lefties has been 68-percent better than a league-average hitter. Do you want some context for that? In 2012, when Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown, he had a 166 wRC+. Posey's performance against left-handers has basically been the equal of the game's most feared hitter having one of his best years. 三围.333/.393/.578，整个就是他的主场。 可以转换成168wRC+， 表示当他面对左投时比联盟平均打者好上68%。 想要更多说明吗？ 2012年当胖卡拿下三冠王他的wRC+是166。 Posey对左投时基本上跟联盟最恐怖打者的生涯年几无二异。 In the seventh inning of a tied regular-season game, you probably wouldn't let Buster Posey face a left-handed reliever. To do so in an win-or-go-home playoff game defies basic reasoning. And that's exactly what Matt Williams did, sticking with Thornton against Posey, even though Thornton had just put the go-ahead run on base. 例行赛七局平手的话你也许都不会让Posey面对左手牛。 而这是MW所做的： 在一场win-or-go-home季後赛中无视基本原则， 让Thronton对Posey。 即使Thronton才刚放一个超前分上垒。 Predictably, Posey hit a line drive to center field, and the Nationals are lucky that it was hit right toward Denard Span, so Posey only got a single, and Panik only advanced to second base. So now the go-ahead run was in scoring position, with only one out, and Hunter Pence -- another quality right-handed hitter -- coming to the plate. 一如预期Posey击出中外野平飞安打。 国民运气好的是球掉在Span正前方， 所以Posey只能上一垒而Panik也只推进到二垒。 现在超前分进入得点圈，只有一人出局， 另一个优质右打Pence进入打击区。 Williams rightfully decided that Thornton shouldn't be the guy to face Pence, and went to the bullpen to get a right-hander. But no, he didn't call on Tyler Clippard, the team's best relief pitcher, who held right-handed batters to a .126/.197/.226 line this season, even though the Giants would be almost 90-percent favorites to win the game if Panik scored and they took the lead into the top of the eighth. Preventing Panik from scoring in that inning was of the utmost importance, but Clippard wasn't called upon because he wasn't even warming up. MW立刻决定动用右手牛，不让Thronton对付Pence。 即使只要Panik回本垒後进入八局代表巨人几乎九成能赢， MW也没用阵中最好的中继投手： 今年把右打三围压到.126/.197/.226的Clippard。 阻止Panik在七下得分是最重要的， 但Clippard没被叫上场。 因为他根本还没开始热身。 That's right. Not only did Williams let Posey hit against a left-handed reliever with the go-ahead run on base, he didn't even have his best reliever warming in case it didn't work. He did have rookie Aaron Barrett warming up, however, and that's who he called on to go after Hunter Pence. 就是这样。 MW不只让Posey在超前分上垒时有左投打， 甚至没为了预防万一要他最好的中继投手热身准备。 他要菜鸟Barrett热身，他要Barrett解决Pence。 Now, despite being a rookie, Aaron Barrett isn't a terrible choice to be pitching for the Nationals in the playoffs. He had a good first year in the big leagues, striking out 28 percent of the batters he faced, and more importantly, 31 percent of the right-handed batters he faced. Righties only hit .190/.277/.253 against him his year. He earned his way onto the playoff roster, and we've seen plenty of live-armed youngsters come up big out of the bullpen in the postseason before. 除了菜鸟以外Barrett对国民季後赛来说并不是个糟糕的选择。 他的大联盟新人年很不赖，三振掉28%他面对的打者， 更重要的是对右打他的三振率提升到31%， 右打今年对他的三围只有.190/.277/.253。 他赢得他的季後赛位置， 之前的季後赛我们也看过不少年轻的速球派在关键时刻上场投球。 But Barrett has one primary flaw right now: his command isn't very good. He threw only 45 percent of his pitches in the strike zone this year, and walked 12 percent of the batters he faced. His best pitch is a strong power slider that he gets hitters to chase out of the zone, but with the go-ahead run at second base and only one out, Barrett couldn't afford to miss out of the zone and push that runner to third base with a walk. Doing so would remove the Giants' for a hit, and allow them to take the lead with simply a medium-depth fly ball. 但Barrett有个最基本的瑕疵：控球并不是很好。 本季只有45%的球能投进好球带，保送率也有12%。 他的主力武器是掉出好球带也能引诱打者追打的强力滑球， 但在超前分站二垒只有一出局的状况下， 如果Barrett不把球投进好球带， 就要承担因保送而把超前分送上三垒的风险。 这麽做会使巨人不用靠安打， 仅凭简单一颗深浅适中的飞球就能取得领先。 So instead, Wilson Ramos called for Barrett to throw seven consecutive fastballs to Pence; unfortunately, only two of them were in the strike zone, and he walked Pence anyway. Because of the situation, Barrett was asked to pitch in the biggest game of his life, and do it without his best pitch. Pence's walk pushed Panik to third base, and brought up switch-hitting Pablo Sandoval. 因此Ramos要Barrett连投七颗速球， 很不幸只两颗投进好球带。 最终他还是保送Pence。 在这种情况下Barrett被要求站上他人生最大的舞台， 却没办法拿出最好的表现。 Pence的保送把Panik挤上三垒， 下一棒是左右开弓的熊猫。 Now, the usage of Thornton to go after Blanco and Panik meant that the team didn't have any more left-handed relievers, so Sandoval was going to bat left-handed, his much stronger side. For his career, Sandoval has a 132 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, but just a 95 wRC+ against left-handers, and this season the split was even more extreme: 136 against RHPs and 59 against LHPs. Sandoval's biggest strength as a hitter is driving the ball against pitchers like Aaron Barrett. 用掉Thronton面对Blanco与Panik表示球队已经没有其他左手牛， 熊猫便能用他更强大的左手打击。 在熊猫的职业生涯对付右投有132wRC+，对左投仅95wRC+； 本季差异更巨大，对右投136而对左投低到59。 做为一个打者， 熊猫的力量可以摧毁Barrett这样的投手。 Barrett, by the way, had even more severe command problems against lefties this year, since his slider is mostly ineffective against them. Forced to just pound fastballs, and without a real out-pitch to throw them, Barrett walked 15 percent of the left-handed batters he faced this year, and only struck out 22 percent. Barrett is a good right-on-right reliever when he can use his slider, but you don't really want him facing a lefty in a big situation, and you definitely don't want him facing a lefty who kills right-handed pitchers with the bases loaded. In a tie game. In the seventh inning. Of a game that ends your season if you lose. 顺带一提由於Barrett的滑球之於左打几乎无效， 他今年对左打的控球更凄惨。 Barrett被迫只能用速球， 却又缺少一个制造出局数的武器。 今年Barrett对左打有15%的保送率，三振率只剩22%。 虽然当Barrett能用上他的滑球时能好好解决右打， 但你不会真的要他在大场面对上左打， 你也绝不想让他在满垒时遇到右投杀手。 而且这是比分打平的七局下半， 你输掉就打包放假的这种比赛。 But even after watching Barrett walk Pence, Williams stuck with his youngster. Sandoval ended up not even mattering, as Barrett's wildness led to a wild pitch that scored Panik from third, and then he uncorked another wild pitch while attempting to intentionally walk Sandoval once first base was open. That was the final straw for Williams, who removed his young right-hander from the game rather than letting him face the left-handed Brandon Belt, still with two men on base even after Posey was forced out at home trying to score on the second wild pitch. 就算Barrett保送Pence，MW还是没换。 熊猫甚至不用出棒就能看着Barrett暴投送回超前分Panik， 然後在IBB熊猫上一垒时再度暴投。 MW终於受不了而换人，不让Barrett再投Belt。 就算Posey在第二次暴投抢攻本垒失败， 垒包上也还是站着两个人。 To replace Barrett, Williams called on Rafael Soriano, who had such a poor second half that he lost his job as closer and almost didn't make the playoff roster. Soriano is basically just an older, diminished version of Barrett, a fastball-slider right-hander who doesn't do as well against lefties. And yet, even though any hit to the gap would essentially end the Nationals season, Williams brought in Soriano to face Belt. MW叫下半季烂掉丢掉CL甚至差点挤不进季後赛的Sorry接替Barrett。 Sorry基本上是个更老的劣化版Barrett， 一个无法好好解决左打的速球滑球混用右投。 即使是任何一支掉到空档的安打都能终结国民球季， MW还是要Sorry上去对付Belt。 Tyler Clippard never even warmed up that inning. Neither did Stephen Strasburg, the team's dominant starter who was available out of the bullpen, and who could have bridged the gap to get to the eighth inning if Williams was completely insistent on maintaining his regular season roles. After the game, Williams said Strasburg was available only in an emergency, but he didn't clarify why pulling his starter after four innings in an elimination game didn't qualify as an emergency. Clippard在这个半局从没起来热身过， 更别说小史这个具有压制力而且能上场当牛用的先发。 如果MW彻底坚持他例行赛季的球员使用法， 小史可以上去顶住七局等八局再让Clippard上班。 赛後MW表示小史只有在紧急情况才会使用， 但他没说清楚为何要在不赢就回家的关键战第四局， 就在称不上危机的状况下拔掉先发？ But I can at least see an argument for why Storen or Strasburg wasn't ready to go in the seventh inning. Clippard, though, is on the roster for these exact situations: getting big outs with men on base in extremely high-leverage at-bats. It doesn't get any more high-leverage than if-this-guy-at-second- scores-our-season-is-probably-over, but Clippard simply sat and watched his less-talented teammates give up the run that would eventually decide the game. 至少我可以理解为何七局不派Storen或小史。 至於Clippard， 他的存在就是为了在这麽明确的高张力情况下上场拿下重要出局数。 ＂如果二垒那家伙回来我们大概也玩完了＂， 没有比这样更紧张的局面。 但Clippard只是坐在那里， 看着比不上自己的队友丢掉那差不多等於结束球季的那一分。 Before the game, I suggested that the Nationals use Strasburg in a pre-planned relief role, allowing him to pitch as normally as possible out of the bullpen, and in that piece, I made this statement: "The team’s best chance to win two games is likely to maximize the percentage of innings thrown by Zimmermann, Strasburg, Clippard, and Storen." 赛前我猜测国民会这麽使用小史： 尽量让他在正常状况下上场支援牛棚。 基於如此我会这麽说： 国民要能拿下第二胜最好的机会就是以最大限度运用JZnn，小史，Clippard及Storen。 Those four pitchers combined to throw zero pitches in Game Four, and due in part to that decision, Game Five won't even happen. The Nationals lost because Matt Thornton -- given to the team by the Yankees in exchange for only the waiver fee, as New York just didn't want him anymore -- and Aaron Barrett couldn't keep the middle of the Giants' order from scoring one run, and because Williams wasn't willing to use his best relievers to escape a jam that didn't even need to happen in the first place. 这四个投手在第四战合计投球数是零。 这是国民看不到第五战的部分原因。 国民之所以输掉这场比赛， 是因为从洋基让渡名单里捡来甚至不要求回报的Thronton； 没办法不失分锁住巨人中心打线的Barrett； 与拒绝让最好的中继投手上场解决危机的MW。 而这种危机甚至从一开始就根本可以不必发生。 There is no parallel to this in other sports. NFL teams that trail by a touchdown don't put in their backup linebackers until their offense takes the lead again. NBA teams don't use their worst bench players in the first half, saving their good reserves for the end of the game, as long as they're winning when the fourth quarter rolls around. Baseball is the only sport where it's perfectly acceptable to lose a game because the worst players on your roster didn't create a lead for your best players to protect. Not using your best relievers in a tie game, or even down a single run -- while employing them to "save" a game where you only need to get three outs before you give up three runs -- just doesn't make sense. 其它运动里完全找不到类比。 NFL球队落後一次touchdown时， 直到攻击组取得领先为止都不会把後备linebackers放上来。 NBA球队不会为了比赛末段保留实力， 选择在上半场放上最糟糕的板凳球员。 就算第四节开始时是领先者也不会。 因为最差劲的球员无法取得领先让最好的球员上场保护而输掉比赛， 棒球是唯一一个可以完全理解这种运作模式的运动。 不让你最好的牛在平手或甚至只落後一分时登场， 却又希望他们＂守住＂一场胜利； 而你在丢三分以前甚至只需要先拿到三个出局数就好。 完全不合理。 As an outsider, we can't know about the internal dynamics of the clubhouse and how well Williams might or might not have handled the aspects of his job that we never see. But part of his job is also to make decisions during the games that give his team the best chance to win, and in the biggest game of his managerial career, he made a series of poor decisions that directly led to the run that eliminated his team from the postseason. The Nationals' offense didn't do Williams any favors in this series, and it's tough to advance when your team just doesn't hit. But on Tuesday night, they scored at least enough runs to earn the right to keep playing. 局外人不知道MW怎麽处理我们看不见的部分， 不过在他执教生涯最重大的比赛没能给球队最好的赢球机会。 虽然他做了些蠢决定，但打者手软是事实。 当你得不了分很难晋级。 只是周二晚上，国民至少能拿到足够延续系列赛的分数。 They didn't get that chance, though, because Matt Williams was unwilling to use his best pitchers in a tie game. In many ways, baseball is getting a lot smarter. In this particular way, baseball has a long way to go. 可惜他们没能把握。 因为MW不愿让他最好的投手在平手时上场。 在许多方面MW越来越聪明， 但就这方面他要学的可还多着呢。 --

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