A Fun Comparison for Denard Span http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/a-fun-comparison-for-denard-span/ by Dave Cameron - September 18, 2014 I’m an unabashed fan of Denard Span, and for my money, he remains one of the game’s most underrated players. But I’ll admit that when I saw this a few hours ago, even I was surprised. 我从不掩饰自己是厚脸皮的Span粉， 在我看来，他还是最被低估的球员之一。 不过我也承认当几个小时前看到这些时， 就算是我也被吓到惹。 Below, a side by side comparison of Span and Jacoby Ellsbury since the start of the 2012 season. 下面是Span与Ellsbury自2012年开始的side by side比较表。 Name PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Span 1872 7% 11% 0.109 0.318 0.287 0.340 0.396 0.325 105 10.9 Ellsbury 1587 7% 14% 0.128 0.316 0.282 0.336 0.410 0.327 104 22.4 Off Def WAR Span 21.7 21.4 10.8 Ellsbury 28.9 18.6 10.7 Over the last three seasons, Span has essentially been Ellsbury’s equal. They walk the same amount, and while Ellsbury has a tick more power, Span strikes out a little less. Their slash lines are almost identical, and once you adjust for the offensive environments they’ve played in, Span’s wRC+ is actually a point higher, even with less power. Ellsbury’s a better base stealer, but UZR and DRS like Span’s defense a little more. They aren’t perfect clones, but the differences are small, and the overall value has been very similar. 过去三个球季Span基本上可与Ells势均力敌。 他们的走路比相同，Ells炮瓦稍强， Span风扇比则低一些。 他们的三围几乎一致， 而当你针对offensive environments做调整後， 炮瓦较弱的Span的wRC+甚至高出1。 Ells是更好的垒包小偷， 但UZR与DRS显示Span防守能力较佳。 他们几乎是完美的复制人，差距很小， 整体价值非常相似。 They’re basically the same age — Span was born in February of ’84, Ellsbury in September of ’83 — and have the same general set of skills. Ellsbury’s additional power allows one to see him as a player with a bit more upside — his 2011 season did happen, after all, when he hit as many home runs that year as Span has in his career — and he’s been a slightly better player over his entire career. If you look at their whole big league resume, Ellsbury is at +27 WAR in 3,800 plate appearances, while Span is at +22 in 4,000 plate appearances . On a per-600 PA basis, that gives Ellsbury roughly a +1 WAR advantage. 他们差不多同龄，Span生於84年二月，Ells则是83年九月， 而skills也一样。 Ells的额外炮瓦则让他拥有更高的天花板， 也的确在2011年球季发挥出来， 当年他单季HR跟Span生涯总合一样多， 生涯成绩Ells也比Span更好上一些。 如果你回头看他们的大联盟资历， Ells在3800个打席中WAR是+27， Span在4000个打席中WAR则为+22。 以一个球季600打席为基础计算， Ells的WAR粗估能比Span的+1。 But the entirety of that difference comes from one year (which occurred four years ago), when Ellsbury was maybe the best player in the game while Span dealt with symptoms from a concussion. That season happened, and it counts, but we’re now on year three of Span and Ellsbury being basically the same player. 但最大的差距只来自於一个球季（发生在四年前）， 当时Ells也许是联盟中最好的球员， 而Span则深受脑震荡困扰。 自此之後的三年Span跟Ells基本上是一样的。 The Nationals have a crowded outfield, and the assumption has been that they may look to trade Span this winter. But he’s going to make $9 million next year, and the market just valued a very similar player as a $22 million per year player on a long-term deal. It might be easy to think that Span is a replaceable part, given the team’s depth, let’s not underestimate Span’s impact on the Nationals, and assume that he’d be so easy to replace. Denard Span is really good. 国民的外野塞满满，或许这个冬天他们会试图交易Span。 不过他明年只拿你9M， 而市场上评价非常相似的球员却要一年22M还得一签好几年。 如果从球队的外野深度观察Span似乎很容易就可以取代， 但别低估Span能为国民带来的冲击， 也别假设他真的这麽简单就能被取代。 Denard Span真的很棒。 --

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