http://natsbaseball.blogspot.tw/2014/03/roark-vs-jordan.html As I saw it the 5th starter role was Detwilers to lose. Perhaps he didn't last super long in games* but he was moderately effective, especially considering the role. Expand out his 2012 stats to a full year and he'd be about the 40th-50th most valuable starter in the NL. Given that there are at least 75, there's no shame in that. The Nats had one of the better #4s in the role of a #5. 这是我对知道Det丢掉五号先发时的看法。或许他一场比赛里无法投很长＊ 但还是颇有效率，特别就他的位置来说。扩张2012年的数据成完整年度来看的话， 他在国联最有价值投手排行榜能排40~50名。看成每队五个先发总共就有75人， 排在这个位置并不丢脸。国民拥有很棒的四号先发之一，却排在他们的五号位置。 Yet 2012 also saw Detwiler perform really well in the pen. It's something I actually spoke up about a few times, but before finishing that horn toot, I'll note I brought it up to explain why he wasn't as good a starter as you'd think, not because I thought he should be moved to the pen. The Nats needed another dependable lefty in there and they could use another solid long relief option. Moving Detwiler to the pen solves both issues. As Matt Williams said "We're a better team with him coming out of the bullpen" Except that's a half-truth. They are a better team with Detwiler coming out of the bullpen... if their other options at 5th starter can pitch as well as Detwiler did. Can they? He went over this in a cursory manner a few weeks ago, let's dive in now. 同年的Det在牛棚也很不赖。我已经说过好几次了，但在我停止吹嘘前 我会解释为什麽他当先发并不是你想得那麽好。 国民需要另一个可以信赖的左投与可靠的长中继人选， 把Det移到牛棚可以同时解决这两个问题。 就像Matt Williams所说， ＂当他从牛棚出发时我们会成为更好的队伍。＂ 虽然这句话只有一半是真的。他们的确会变成更好的队伍， 如果其他五号先发可以投得跟Det一样好。 可以吗？过去几周只有粗略地带过，现在来深入探讨看看。 Taylor Jordan is 25** His minor league career doesn't exactly inspire confidence. He was very good in rookie ball in 2009, struggled in A ball in 2010, did better in A ball in 2011, had Tommy John, then struggled again in A ball during his comeback in 2012. Not an auspicious beginning, but in 2013 though he looked like a different pitcher, mastering his control and breezing through High A and AA. TJ年方25＊＊，他的小联盟生涯并非一帆风顺。2009菜鸟年他表现得非常好， 2010年在1A很挣扎；2011年同样层级就投得好多了。但换过韧带後， 2012年又陷入困境。虽然一开始不尽如人意，2013年他却完全脱胎换骨， 掌控好球带并轻松驾驭A+与2A。 That's the type of pitcher Jordan is, a fantastic control pitcher who keeps his walks down (2.1 BB/9 in his minor league career) and is nearly impossible to homer off of (14 homers in 339 minor league innings). He's not a strikeout threat (ignore what you see this spring) putting up mild K numbers in the minors. This is exactly what we saw in his major league stint. No walks, no homers, but no Ks. He's not a guy that's going to dominate. You'll get your hits but they won't be homers and I'll get out of the inning before anything bad happens. 这就是Jordan的投手型态，控球令人惊喜。他能保持低保送率（小联盟生涯2.1 BB/9）， 几乎不可能把他的球扛出墙（339局仅挨14轰），加上温和的三振数字。 这也正符合我们所看到他那少量的大联盟表现。没保送，没被轰，但也没三振。 他不是绝对压制型投手，你可以敲安打但球飞不出去， 他也能在情况变坏以前结束半局。 The worst thing you can say about him is he lacks experience and thus 2013 could just be a fluke. That might have been true about the domination in the minors. abnormally low BABIPs and high LOB% suggest ERAs that were well under what they should have been. But in the major leagues we saw a .322 BABIP and a 66.9 LOB%. Those aren't lucky breaks. They seem more than reasonable. I think 2013 MLB Jordan is a fine guess at what he'll be going forward. 你可以说他的劣势是缺乏经验，2013年也可能是假象。 在小联盟的主宰级数字或许是如此，低BABIPs与高LOB%都显得异常。 这可以说明ERAs之所以低於它应该有的样子。 但是在大联盟.322 BABIP与66.9 LOB%就没办法称得上幸运了， 反而高得不合理。 我想用他2013年在大联盟缴出的数字来推敲他的未来没有问题。 Roark is 27. One of the whatevers dealt to the Nats for Cristian Guzman, he slowly moved up the minor league ladder by attrition. He was mostly mediocre but never flat out terrible, and when the Nats had need of organizational depth, they kicked him from AA to AAA. After another blah year in AA though it looked like he "got it" in 2013. Although his surface stats didn't look any better than Jordan's in the minors (more homers, every slightly more walks, same strikeouts) he didn't suffer the same drop in stats when he moved up to the majors. Everything remained the same, if not better and he put up that great 1.51 ERA line. 27岁的Roark是Cristian Guzman交易案里一个无所谓的路人， 小联盟走得不但缓慢又跌跌撞撞。 他非常平庸但也从没惨到绝望， 而当国民需要补充组织深度时才将他从2A拉上3A。 经过又一个枯燥的球季後，2013年的他看起来似乎＂掌握住了什麽＂。 尽管他小联盟的表面数字没好过Jordan （更多轰，更多保送，一样的三振率）， 上大联盟後他的数字却也没被修正。 一切都一模一样，除了那超赞的1.51 ERA。 Roark has morphed into something a lot like Jordan, after being more of a wild strikeout type guy in his early years. 2008 and 2009 showed a guy striking out a batter an inning, but walking too many and giving up too many homers. The 2010-2012 Tanner gave up some K's for some better control (around 0.8 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 7.3 K/9). Until finally arriving at that 2013 that was a lot like Jordan's. I don't think the endpoint was fluky. I think this is the pitcher Roark is now. 就如Jordan一样，Roark也产生不少质变。早年的他也是个三振狂人， 2008与2009年K/9都超过9，但也投太多保送挨太多轰。 2010-2012用控球取代三振（0.8 HR/9 2.8 BB/9 7.3 K/9）， 直到2013年就更像Jordan了。 我不认为这是假象，我想这就是Roark现在的样子。 If Roark is Jordan then why the big discrepancy in major league results? Part of it is Roark adjusting better, but part of it is things going his way. Roark had spent the minors with a BABIP in the .280-.320 range. Last year he had a .258 BABIP in the minors, a .243 in the majors. His LOB% was on the high side (though not crazy) in the majors as well at 79.8%. And while Roark doesn't give up many homers a 2.6% HR/FB rate is something that no one keeps up for an entire year. 如果Roark就是Jordan那为何上大联盟後差异这麽大？ 其中一部分是Roark适应得更好， 另一部分则是Roark运气比较好。 Roark小联盟时期的BABIP落在.280-.320， 去年在小联盟是.258，上大联盟後更低到.243； 79.8% LOB%也相当高（但还不至於高得离谱）， 他2.6% HR/FB也并非能维持整个球季的数字。 To put it another way, in 2013 we saw this Lucky Jordan Minors: 1.00 ERA Jordan Majors: 3.66 ERA Roark Minors: 3.15 ERA Lucky Roark Majors: 1.51 ERA Very similar results, very similar pitchers (at least in 2013). There's a good sense of how either of these guys will pitch in the majors. An ERA aropund 3.50, maybe up to 4.00 as the league gets comfortable against them, feels about right. Basically Detwiler, so the "gamble" that either of these two will pitch like Ross is probably a fair one. Ross offers more security for reaching the above numbers, but injury history and age suggest his time has passed. 非常相似的数字，几乎一样的投手（至少在2013年）。 不难看出在大联盟他们各自会长成什麽样子。 ERA约略在3.50，等打者熟悉他们後也许将攀升至4.00。 以Detwiler为基础， 认为他们会投得像Ross而把赌注下在他们身上并不吃亏。 Ross能更安全地提供更好的数字， 不过伤病史跟年龄使时间已经不站在他这边了。 The question then becomes who to choose and to me the answer is obvious and is why I started the analysis of each player with a statement of ages. Jordan is 25. Roark is 27. Jordan is 2 years and 3 months younger than Roark. Jordan is more likely to continue pitching at this level for more years than Roark making him a more useful piece in the rotation, or a more useful piece in a deal. Jordan also holds out more hope for improvement. 接下来的问题是谁将被选上而对我来说答案显而易见， 这也是我之所以从年纪开始分析的原因。 Jordan是25岁，Roark已经27了。Jordan比Roark年轻两年三个月。 比起Roark来看Jordan更像能继续提供这样的数字好几年， 不管在轮值或交易中他都更有价值。 Jordan也拥有更多进步的可能性。 At this point the choice is simple - Taylor Jordan should be the #5. 此时此刻选择很简单－Taylor Jordan应该成为五号先发。 *just under 5 2/3 a game. For reference ZNN has been around 6.5 innings the past 2 years, Gio under 6 1/3 and Strasburg just under 6, though he was given a short leash in 2012 and in 2013 he was at the same level as Gio). 每场低过5.2局。JZ过去两年都能吃6局半左右，Gio低於6.1局而小史低於6局。 不过小史2012年是被严格控管，到了2013年他就跟Gio差不多了。 **By the way 6 months younger than Strasburg, so when you consider Jordan a "prospect" think about that. 顺带一提Jordan比小史还年轻六个月，所以当你认为Jordan是个＂新秀＂时想一想。 --

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