If you’re an athlete and you’d like to find yourself in more blog headlines, say something about statistics and nerds. Works every time. 倘若你是一位运动员，你免不了会发现自己的名字常出现在许多部落格文章的标题上，内 文不外乎是些数据、一般人不太会去接触那种。这屡见不鲜。 Ryan Zimmerman was the latest to discover this truth, after starring in the last section of Friday’s Boz column. 好比国民当家三垒手Ryan Zimmerman上周五便出现在专栏作家Thomas Boswell文章中最後 一段。 Boswell是这麽写的： The reigning kings of geekdom reside at Baseball Prospectus. They’re so respected inside the industry that the Nats have a “Baseball Prospectus Day” at Nats Park on July 7. PECOTA, a Baseball Prospectus site, uses computer simulations to project performance. They think the Nats have a 41 percent chance to reach the playoffs and a 3.9 percent to win the Series (down from 11 percent preseason). The Orioles currently have only a 17.9 percent playoff chances, in part because they’re in the tough AL East, a minuscule 0.7 percent chance to win the Series…. 那些支配着Prospectus的基克族（按：白话＝阿宅），他们在这一行（数据演算）极其受 到尊敬，尊敬到什麽样的程度？从今年七月七日国民会在球场办个”Baseball Prospectus Day”便可略知一二（道奇也办过，今年四月27日）。前不久Baseball Prospectus（以下简称BP）用电脑运算出本季国民有41%的机率可以晋级季後赛，并有 3.9%的机率夺冠（从季前11%滑落到现在3.9%）；而金莺呢，目前仅有17.9%的机会晋级季 後赛，部分原因是因为他们处在颇难混的美联东区，也因此...电脑运算出他们仅有0.7% 的渺茫机率夺冠。 “How did that [model] work out for them the last couple of years? Not very well, right?” said Zimmerman. “That’s why nerds shouldn’t do that stuff.” 对此，国民老大哥Zimmerman回应道：「过去几年他们的预测结果如何？不怎麽理想，对 吧？这就是为什麽那些阿宅们该停止干这些事啦！」 Nerds! “Ryan Zimmerman Thinks You Are All A Bunch Of Nerds,” wrote Deadspin. “Ryan Zimmerman thinks “nerds” should not do playoff projections, ” wrote Hardball Talk. Nerds! said the rest of the Internet. 阿宅？！ Deadspin以此写了篇「Zimmer认为你们只是一堆阿宅罢了」的文章，HBT也写了篇「 Zimmer认为阿宅们不该预测谁会晋级季後赛」。 （言下之意：那些阿宅，或说BP的阿宅们，请停下手边的工作，出门凉快去吧～） Well, Zimmerman was on ESPN 980′s Sports Fix Friday afternoon, and Thom Loverro — a longtime antagonist of stats lovers — brought up the nerds quote. (Audio here.) Zimmerman immediately groaned and laughed, saying he had made that nerds! quip “in casual talk” with Boz. 周五傍晚，Zimmer上了ESPN的广播频道，跟长期对数据头不太爽的Thom Loverro交换了一 些意见。言及「阿宅」，Zimmer马上笑出声来，他说那些言论只是跟Boswell的闲聊罢了 。 “I have nothing against nerds, believe me,” Zimmerman said. “I’m just, I’ m so tired – not just in baseball, in every sport – of the new infatuation with stats and numbers and using this stuff to compare players. The best thing about sports is people can hit the same in the first inning and the ninth inning, but you’re trying to tell me that you’re gonna take someone other than Derek Jeter in the playoffs in the ninth inning? If Derek Jeter’s hitting .150, I’m taking Derek Jeter, compared to a guy hitting .450. That’ s something that you can’t put in the numbers. You know, the new way to compare people, it’s been a hit, or whatever people want to call it. And some of it’s true; I’m not saying all of its wrong. But the great thing about sports is how people handle pressure and how people handle adversity, and there’s just no way that numbers can do that justice.” Zimmer说： 「我跟那些阿宅之间没啥啦～我没不爽他们，相信我，我只是...单纯有点厌倦了，厌倦 那些...不仅仅是棒球，每项运动都存在着、着迷於用一些数据来比较球员的的狂热者。 」 「棒球这项运动最棒的地方就在於：从第一局伊始，乃至於到了第九局，球员打的东西都 不会有啥差别（第一局的安打跟第九局的安打都一样啊其实）。然而当你试图要告诉我， 你打算比较几位球员季後赛第九局的打击情形，当中却不包含Derek Jeter？（Jeter生涯 第九局表现不太好，打击率0.241是所有局数中最低的）今天就算Jeter打击率只有一成五 ，另外有位球员打击率高达四成五，我还是会选择Jeter，因为有些东西是数据无法衡量 的。」 「最新窜起这种拿来比较球员的方式，对传统的棒球是一种冲击，又或者你要怎麽称呼他 ，这都无妨。事实是：有一部分（这种新的方式）是正确的，我不会说那全是错误，但运 动最最最美好的事物，该是观看那些运动员如何能顶住压力、冲破逆境，这些都不是那些 冷冰冰的数据所能显现的。」 Loverro and Sheehan both chimed in, mostly in agreement, and then opened the floor to Zimmerman again. Loverro与Sheehan一致认同Zimmerman的言论，并要他继续说下去。 “It’s gotten, I don’t want to say out of hand, because it’s part of the game, and part of every sport now is this huge fantasy football market, or fantasy baseball,” Zimmerman said. “And it’s good for the game, because it gets us more fans who might have never paid attention to baseball before. And that’s what this game is all about, is getting fans and having people watch the game and grow the game. But it gets to a point sometimes where they do so many comparisons and so many stats. Just let people go out and play the game. It kind of gets away from what baseball’s really about.” 「但这些（阿宅们搞这堆有的没的）...我并不想这麽说，因为这是球赛的一部分，许多 运动的Fantasy Game都非常盛行，美式足球啦、棒球啦，市场很大、很有发展潜力，然而 这似乎有点太过了。」Zimmer说：「不过这对球赛也有正向的影响，它让许多过往可能从 未注意到棒球的球迷们开始会看球，这其实跟球赛的目的一致哪：想办法吸引更多的粉丝 、让人们开始看球、壮大棒球这项运动。不过发展至此，他们有时难免稍显走偏，做了太 多比较、用了太多数据。」 「何不就单纯让人们出门去享受球赛、让球员专注於比赛吧？太多的数据，其实有些背离 『棒球』真正的意涵了。」 Still, the hosts promised Zimmerman, he would hear more about this quote. 不过呢，两位也跟Zimmer断言道，他一定会听到许多关於「阿宅发言」的余波荡漾。（上 面所提两篇文章其实就是了） “Oh, I woke up this morning and I already heard about it,” he said with a laugh. “I didn’t even remember it. I talk with Boz all the time. Boz is great, he’s one of the smartest writers out there and loves the game. And I woke up this morning, and honestly, I didn’t even remember saying that. We were just talking at my locker about stats, about things like that. I didn’t mean any harm by it. You know, whatever. It wasn’t meant to do any damage.” Zimmer则说： 「噢，今早我起床时其实就有听到啦XD 我已经有点忘了我跟Boswell说了些什麽， Boswell人挺不赖的，他是最慧黠的几个写手，也热爱棒球。（又说了一次起床，略）， 我们只是在我的置物柜旁闲聊些关於数据的东东，差不多就是我刚讲的那些啦。我没有冒 犯的意思，这并非什麽攻击性的言论。」 This nerd thinks it’s all good. And also would like more outtakes from the Boz locker room sessions. 那些「阿宅」在做的事情半点也没错误，那段来自置物柜旁的谈话也是如此。 As for the Nats bats, Zimmerman was asked what hitters are saying to each other as they try to exit this season-long slump. 谈到本季至今状况相当低迷的国民（打线），Zimmer被问到：「选手间有在商讨、尝试如 何去中止这样的低潮吗？」 “Nobody’s more frustrated than us,” he said. “And we might not show it. That’s just kind of how we’re wired. And we have to deal with the media and other people, but there’s nobody on the planet that’s more disappointed and frustrated than us right now. And we’re doing everything we can to work and try and get better and score more runs. At this level the coaches can only do so much. The first people to always get the blame are Rick [Eckstein], the hitting coach, and Davey. But when it comes down to it, we’re grown men playing baseball. And when we get to the batter’s box, it’s US up there. And in the end, we’re the ones that have to make the adjustments, we’re the ones that have to get better. They can only tell us so much. We have to go up there and do it, and score runs.” 「没人比我们更泄气啦......我们无法做出应有的表现，彷佛被绊住了、施展不开。我们 还必须跟媒体以及其他人们应答（你们到底怎麽啦？），但此时此刻，这个世界上没人比 我们更失望、更挫折啦...我们已经做了所有我们所能做的，尝试要打得更好、得到更多 分数。在这种节骨眼，教练也只能做到这麽多了，然而当我们打得不太让人满意，每每第 一个被抓出来批评、责怪的，却总是打教Rick Eckstein，还有总ㄟ Davey Johnson... 说到谁该为此负责，当然是我们这些该打好球的大男人啦。」 「当我们走上打击区，在那儿，我们团结一心，无论结果如何，我们都是一个团队，一起 做出调整、一起变得更好，教练能做的就这麽多，到头来上场杀敌的还是我们，我们必须 大步向前、努力去挥击、想办法得更多分数。」 Also, nerds! 「呃，顺道一边把数据冲上去啦。」 ----- 改了一下部分地方 -- 我的脸书个人粉丝专页－The Dream Field，欢迎来逛逛！ https://www.facebook.com/TheDreamField --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.122.61.208 ※ 编辑: Sparksfly 来自: 140.122.61.208 (06/03 11:20) ※ 编辑: Sparksfly 来自: 119.77.194.231 (06/04 17:52)