※ 引述《VaROne (One)》之铭言： : Ht: 6-6 : Wt: 230 : B/T: R/R : HS: Harvard Westlake : HS Grad: 2012 : City: Santa Monica : State: CA : Country: United States Giolito的基本资料： 身高：6尺6寸 体重：230磅 投/打：右投右打 高中：Harvard Westlake(2012应届毕) 出身：美国、加州、Santa Monica : 1/17/12: If you are a believer in writing scripts before the event, the next : six months of Lucas Giolito’s life, and indeed potentially the next 20 : years, is outstanding script material. Of course, Giolito is no stranger to : scripts. His mother is well known actress Lindsay Frost, his father, Rick, is : one of the icons of the computer game industry (former EA Vice President, : co-founder of Trilogy Studios). (本文於2012.1.17撰写) 如果你喜欢编剧本的话，未来半年，以至於未来的20年，Lucas Giolito的人生绝对是 很好的材料。他其实跟剧本这玩意儿并不陌生，因为他妈妈是知名演员Lindsay Frost， 而他爸更是电玩工业界的代表性人物。(前EA副总裁、Trilogy Studios创办人之一) : For those who are serious about the draft, it's a well-known fact that there : has never been a high school right handed pitcher picked with the first overall : pick. That dates back to 1965 and encompasses many past (Ryan, Gossage, Sutter, : Eckersley, etc) and future (Maddox, Smoltz, Hoffman, maybe Clemens, etc.) Hall : of Famers and even more Cy Young Award winners. There have been some teases the : past two years in Jamison Taillon (No. 2 overall in 2010) and Dylan Bundy : (No. 4 in 2011) but the last really serious candidate was Josh Beckett in 1999, : who went down to the wire with Josh Hamilton to be the then Tampa Bay Devil Rays : top pick. The right series of events and circumstances has to come together : just right to have a teenage right handed pitcher selected first overall. : Having that type of talent is the first obvious criteria and Giolito : unquestionably has that (more on that below). 有认真在关注选秀的人都知道，高校右投从来没有拿下过选秀状元。 从1965年开始的大联盟选秀，许多名人堂、准名人堂等级的投手，以及多位赛扬强投 都没能得到这项殊荣。前两年已经算很有机会的了，Jamison Taillon拿下2010第二顺位， (按：因为对上了Harper^^!) Dylan Bundy则是拿下2011的第四顺位。 其实真正有机会的是1999年的Josh Beckett，可惜被Josh Hamilton抢走了魔鬼鱼(光芒) 的状元签。究竟谁有办法打破这(小)魔咒呢? 显然这个人必须是个天才，而Giolito就符合这样的标准，无庸置疑。 : But just as importantly, there has to be the right team, the right competitors : (or lack thereof) for the pick and the right signability. The new CBA and the : bonus slots should eliminate much of the major signability posturing and : gamesmanship that can affect the top pick. The Astros, holders of the first : pick, should have no inhibitions about picking Giolito based on their personnel : (remember, new GM Jeff Luhnow picked Shelby Miller out of high school while : with St. Louis and certainly enjoyed the benefits of having former HS first : rounder Chris Carpenter on the Cardinals staff). 当然要完成这项成就，对的球团、当时的竞争新秀、签约可能性等等因素也很重要。 新的CBA规则以及签约金限制，让许多会原本会影响状元签的假动作和怪招被消除了。 拥有第一顺位选秀权的太空人队，应该可以在没有意外的状况下签下Giolito。(因为 太空人的新GM过去在金莺的时期就有挖掘高中新秀的倾向，例如：Carpenter) : As for the comparisons for the top pick, I think it will come down to Giolito : vs. Stanford’s Mark Appel. The advantage for Giolito (or potentially Appel : for that matter) is that the scouting directors and cross checkers will : frequently see both pitchers throw within a couple days of each other, maybe on : back to back days, and be able to make an immediate comparison. They will see : similar stuff, with the advantage potentially belonging to the pitcher who is : almost exactly three years younger. Giolito’s baseball package is certainly : without question. He’s a very young senior and won't turn 18 years old until : after the July 13 signing deadline. 至於谁能和Giolito竞争呢?我觉得是史丹福大学的Appel。Giolito的优势(同时也是Appel 也具备的)，就是各球团的球探经常到场看这两位新秀比赛，有时甚至是今天看完这位， 隔天紧接着看另一位，以便於他们做即时性的比较。他们应该会看到类似的投手特质， 不过Giolito赢在他比Appel几乎年轻了三岁。他的投球水准没问题，而他到7/13的签约 期限前还没满18岁呢! : He's a well proportioned 6-foot-6, 240 pounds and really doesn't need to get : that much stronger, just maintain his looseness and athleticism. If he were to : get stronger while maintaining that looseness, that will be really scary. He : threw a series of short outings this fall and was consistently in the 95-98 : mph range with his fastball….as in rarely falling below 95 mph, with reports : of him touching 100. He works downhill very well with his fastball and while : he could command the pitch better, he doesn't throw with much effort. : Despite the incredible power behind his fastball, most everyone agrees that : his best future pitch could be his curveball, just as Nolan Ryan's curveball : was actually a nastier pitch than his 100 mph heater. He throws his : traditional version of the pitch in the low-80s and it is deep and sharp, a : true knee buckler for any hitter at any level when throw properly. He also : has been working on developing a harder version of the pitch thrown in the : 84-87 range that he calls his 'wipeout' curve. Giolito throws a change up on : rare occasions but that isn't really a present consideration in evaluating : him. 他的身材比例很好，6尺6寸，240磅，应该不必再练得更壮了，只要维持平常的休闲和 运动时间配置就可以。如果在这样的节奏下他还能练得更壮，那真是够吓人的了。 去年秋天赛季他投了几场，速球平均是95-98英哩，很少低於95，最高有到100英哩! 他不怎麽费力就可以把球速投出来，而且控球也不错。尽管他的球速展现相当的爆发力， 大多数人一致认为他未来最强的球种是曲球，就像名人堂强投Nolan Ryan的曲球实际上 比他100哩的速球更恶心是一样的状况。 Giolito的曲球球速可以压到80哩以下，变化幅度大而且犀利，投得好的话足以压制任何 打者。而他正在尝试一种的新的曲球，球速大约在84-87哩之间，他称之为 "wipeout curve"(请自由发挥^^)。 Giolito偶尔也会投一些变速球，不过目前并非大家关注的重点。 : When it gets right down to it, though, it might not be the Astros decision, : it will be Giolito and his family's. The money, even at $7.2 million for the : first pick, probably isn’t going to be a deciding factor. Giolito is a very : good student and is the type of young man who could put the value of the : college experience at UCLA above any other consideration. And it's certainly : worth noting that Gerrit Cole entered UCLA in 2008 after turning down high : first round money and emerged three years later as the first pick in the 2011 : draft. It will be a fascinating script all spring and into the early summer, : that's for sure. : http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=268321 不过事情会怎麽发展，其实不见得会是太空人队可以决定的。Giolito本人和他的家人 才是关键。就算捧着7.2M并在第一顺位选中他，也不见得就能签下他。Giolito是一名 优秀的好学生，而且认为大学(UCLA)的人生经验对他而言是无可取代的。 当然，不久之前也有一个案例就是Gerrit Cole(2008第28顺位，但最後拒绝洋基的邀约)， 他放弃了高额的选秀签约金而到UCLA就读，三年後被海盗队选中，拿下2011的选秀状元。 总之，接下来这几个月的剧情一定很精彩，我们接着看下去… --

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