How to limit Stephen Strasburg's innings http://0rz.tw/oxOYQ By David Schoenfield | ESPN.com 下面提到某人的部分如果看了不满意请去找Schoenfield,别来战我 Entering Thursday's start against the Pirates, Stephen Strasburg has made six starts and pitched 38 innings. He's 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA, has the highest fastball velocity among starters in the major leagues, throws strikes and is on the short list of the best pitchers in baseball. 在周四对上海盗之前小史已经先发6次并吃了38局, 2-0 ERA 1.66 小史能利用联盟投手中最刚猛的速球不断攻击好球带, 也在少数几个最优秀投手之中名列前茅. Of course, he's reportedly on a 160-inning limit in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. At his current rate of 6.3 innings per start, he'll reach 160 innings in his 26th start. That means shutting him down in late August and missing his final six or seven starts. 当然大家都知道小史在TJ後的首个完整年有160局限制. 目前他每次登板平均吃6 1/3局, 这样将会在第26次先发用光他的配额. 这表示小史八月底必须强迫关机,也将错过最後6或7次先发. The problem, of course, is that the Nationals are a good bet to still be in a heated NL East pennant race in late August. How do you tell your season-ticket holders and your fans that you're shutting down your best player? That you're decreasing your chances of winning? You can't do it. Isn't the goal to win? It's easy for GM Mike Rizzo to say in March or April that the club wants to limit Strasburg's workload; it's a different story if the team is a game out of first place on Sept. 15. 如果说有什麽问题的话,那也要建立在八月底国民仍保持竞争力. 届时要怎麽向球迷与持有季票的观众交代你最好的球员必须离开投手丘? 即使如此依然能增加赢球的机会?显然无理. 胜利难道不是球队竞逐的目标吗? 当三或四月时GM Rizzo可以很简单地告诉我们小史的运作极限, 但球队在九月中若已被踢下分区首位时又是另一个故事了. But it's certainly understandable why the team wants to play it as safe as possible, although I'm not sure there's evidence that pitching 160 innings is any "safer" than 180 or 200 or 220. That's another topic. For now, let's stick to the thesis that Strasburg should pitch 160 innings. Here's my idea of how to do it while still keeping him available down the stretch. 很容易理解为何球队要如此小心翼翼, 虽然我不确定有任何证据显示160这个数字比180,200甚至220"更安全". 这是另一个问题.目前就先把论点摆在这160局. 以下是我的意见,关於如何把小史摆在先发名单直到最後. When Chien-Ming Wang returns from the DL (he made his fourth rehab start on Wednesday night), use Wang as a spot starter of sorts. The Nationals have indicated they don't want to do this, that they'd prefer to keep Strasburg pitching every fifth game. There are two options here: You could simply sub in Wang for Strasburg from time to time, say one start per month. Or you could use Wang to push Strasburg back a day or two every so often. 当Wang离开DL(Wang於周三晚上进行他的第四次复健赛), 把Wang用作可以支援少量先发的投手. 球团已经说过他们不想这样干, 他们宁愿让小史每五天固定登板. 有两个选项可供选择: 有时可以让Wang当备用投手代替小史先发,例如每月1次. 或者偶尔利用Wang把小史的休息天数往後延一或两天. For example, if Strasburg pitches every fifth game, he'd be scheduled to go May 15 (Padres), May 20 (Orioles) and May 25 (Braves). If you gave Wang the May 20 start against Baltimore, you could push Strasburg back to May 21 or May 22, when the Nationals play division rival Philadelphia. Or instead of having Strasburg face the Mets on June 7, use Wang and push Strasburg back a day to face a much tougher Red Sox lineup. If done in the right fashion, you could actually exploit Strasburg to make sure he faces tougher opponents or more division games. 举例来说假设小史每五天上场, 他接下来的赛程将是5/15(教士),5/20(金莺),5/25(勇士). 如果把王摆在5/20对金莺, 就可以把小史的先发延到5/21或5/22面对费城人. 或者将6/7对大都会的先发换成Wang, 把小史保留到隔天对付打线更难缠的红袜. 若是使用方式正确, 就可以确保由小史去对抗更强的对手或分区竞争者. You need a flexible manager, but you can manipulate a six-man rotation like this fairly easily. You could still keep veterans Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson pitching every fifth day, while using Wang to save innings with young arms Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler. The risk is that the starters wouldn't keep the same routine or have the same number of rest days between starts, but the possible reward is that your rotation would be less fatigued heading into September. And remember, Strasburg, Zimmermann and Detwiler have never come close to 180 innings, let alone 200, in a season. Strasburg isn't the only starter where innings could be an issue. 你需要一个想法灵活的教头,当然摆上六人轮值更公平而简单. 你还是可以让老手Gio与E-JAX每五天登板投球, 再由Wang去负责小史,Zimmermann与型男等年轻手臂该吃没吃的局数. 风险是选手没办法维持正常轮值时的调整方式, 回报则是轮值更有可能以较不疲累的状态进入九月. 还有别忘了,小史,Zimmermann与型男都没单季接近180局过,更别说200. 小史并不是唯一一个在局数限制上有讨论空间的先发投手. OK, maybe you don't want to jump starts around like that. Too complicated. You can still push Strasburg deeper into the season pretty easily. For example, sticking to the every-fifth-game rule, you could skip the following starts: May 15 (Padres) July 5 (Giants, final start before All-Star break) 好吧.也许你不想让轮值玩跳跳,太复杂了. 还是有些简单方法让小史的球季走久一点. 例如维持投一休四. 然後跳过这些比赛: 5/15(教士) 7/ 5(巨人,明星赛前最後一次先发) Make him the fifth starter coming out of the break, meaning he doesn't start again until July 17, and then skip these starts: Aug. 7 (Astros) Sept. 4 (Cubs) Sept. 21 (Brewers) 明星赛後把他放到五号, 直到7/17前都不让他再出赛. 再跳过下面几次先发: 8/ 7(太空人) 9/ 4(小熊) 9/21(酿酒人) That would give him 20 more starts, on top of the six he's already made, heading into the final series of the season ... against the Phillies. If the Nats need him, they could stretch him to a 27th start. This way, they'd keep him active through September, and thanks to the long break around the All-Star Game, they'd have to "skip" him only four times. 这样安排除了他已经有过的6次先发以外, 还能继续出场20次以上; 直到球季最後一个系列赛...对手费城人. 如果球队需要,还是可以挤出第27次先发. 依照这种使用方式,到九月底为止小史都还不必关机. 另外感谢明星赛期间的长休, 球队只需要跳过他4次先发. And if the Nationals make the playoffs ... well ... you have to go for it, right? 接着如果国民有机会进入季後赛...总是值得冒险,对吧. ============================================================================== David Schoenfield的论点基础建立在不变更roster, 所以Wang会归队但暂时不会回到五号,Lannan留在3A. 作者的第一种方法, 让小史视情况调整休息天数以面对更强的对手. Wang则在小史原先预定的出赛日顶替登板. 或者以六人轮值打完球季, Wang去帮忙吃年轻手臂没吃完的局数. 优点是大家平均分摊可能出现的伤痛风险, 缺点是无法规律维持休息天数与调整进度. 第二种方法就比较简单. 维持小史投一休四,选择性延长休息天数, 尽量以最小变动去调整轮值. 作者选出几个跳过先发的日期看来是有刻意挑对手. 例如跳过5/15对教士, 面对5/21开始连续三个系列赛(都是对上同区球队). 後续的几个略过日也都差不多情况, 除了明星赛前後刻意拉大休息时间以外. 小史去投分区对手的确对球队比较有利. 至於小史的略过日应该还是交给Wang(或Lannan?)去负责. 整篇其实就是在看要如何以160局为限制的最高原则下, 由小史去对付强队/分区竞争者. 因为国民第一个月的表现让球迷看到希望, 而必须在最後一个月把王牌冰起来所造成的伤害(不管对战绩...或票房) 显然是球队与球迷都承担不起的. -- 抓狂的FANBOY有多可怕 真的是遇过才知道 --

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