http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-10-prospects-washington-nationals/ The Washington Nationals organization has come a long way in a short period of time. The former Montreal Expos club suffered from tight budgets due to MLB control while a suitable buyer was found. As a result, the ability to acquire top-notch talent via the amateur draft and international free agency was all but snuffed out. Some smart, aggressive drafting by the current front office has turned the minor league system around in a hurry. 前言跳过。 1. Bryce Harper | RF/LF BORN: October 16, 1992 EXPERIENCE: 1 season (A+/AA in 2011) ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, Nevada JC (first overall) 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st SCOUTING REPORT: Harper comes as close as anyone not named Mike Stanton to have legit 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also has a very good eye for his age, although he doesn’t handle off-speed pitches as well as the hard stuff but that should improve with experience. He has the chance to be a four- or five-tool player. 球探报告： 炮瓦有80分的水准(不过还是比不上怪力男 Mike Stanton)，同时以他现在的年纪来说 选球算是不错了。打变化球(off-speed pitches)不及打快速球来得好，多累积些经验 也许能改善这个缺点。有机会长成四拍子甚至五拍子型的球员。 YEAR IN REVIEW: Despite the immense scrutiny that followed Harper everywhere he went, the 18-year-old former catcher quieted doubters. He hit .318 with a .236 ISO rate in 258 at-bats in A-ball. He was jumped to double-A and posted a triple-slash line of .256/.329/.395 in 129 at-bats. His power slipped to an .140 ISO but the decline in numbers is not concerning considering his age. 年度回顾： 尽管 Harper 无论身在何处都受到人们的放大检视，但这位年仅18岁的前捕手顶级新秀 透过表现让这些质疑者闭嘴，在1A缴出了.318的打击率以及.236的纯长打率(258个打数) ；尽管升上2A後三围数字大幅下滑至.256/.329/.395(129个打数)，ISO 也跌到只剩.140 ，不过考量到他的年龄没必要过分在意这点。 YEAR AHEAD: Harper will almost certainly return to double-A to begin the 2012 season, although a strong spring could vault him to triple-A. It would not be a shock to see the teenager in Washington by August. Even so, he’ll probably struggle a little bit with advanced pitchers since he only has 118 games of professional experience under his belt (including the ’10 Arizona Fall League). 明年展望： Harper 明年几乎确定会从2A开始打起(春训表现好的话有机会从3A出发)，快的话甚至 8月就有机会看到 Harper 登上大联盟。即使如此，对於职业比赛经验尚浅的 Harper 来说未来若面对到更高阶层级的投手时恐怕还有一番苦头得吃。 CAREER OUTLOOK: There isn’t anyone on the current 25-man roster that possess any sort of threat to Harper’s eventual playing time once the organization deems him MLB-ready. It’s hard not to predict massive success for Harper, although there are still concerns over his maturity and we’ve seen what that can to do players’ careers. 未来展望： 一旦国民认为 Harper 已经准备妥当，没有任何人能威胁到 Harper 的上场时间。要想 断言 Harper 未来无法获得成功这一点实在很难，然而他的成熟程度依旧值得关注，且 这一点对於球员生涯成就影响的重要性我们已经看过够多例子了。 2. Anthony Rendon | 2B/3B BORN: June 6, 1990 EXPERIENCE: College ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round, Rice University (6th overall) 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA SCOUTING REPORT: A third baseman in college, Rendon will likely move to second base due to the presence of Ryan Zimmerman at the hot corner. He projects to be at least average defensively at the position, but his bat should be well above average. Rendon has excellent bat speed and projects to hit for both average and power. 球探报告： 尽管 Rendon 在大学时期是镇守三垒，然而在国民队三垒已经有 Ryan Zimmerman 卡位 的情况下国民应该会让 Rendon 改练二垒。预测 Rendon 在二垒的守备能力至少有平均 水准，而打击则将远优於平均之上。挥棒速度极快，被预期将会是一位兼具打击和长打 实力的打者。 YEAR IN REVIEW: If it had not been for a serious of unrelated injuries, he could very well have gone first overall in 2011. It’s a minor miracle to consider that Washington got Rendon with the sixth overall pick. You could argue that the club received the best player available for three straight seasons (Stephen Strasburg and Harper are the other two). 年度回顾： 若非受到非相关伤势的严重影响，Rendon 理应是今年的选秀状元才是。对於国民能够在 第6顺位捡到 Rendon 这件事可被称作是一个微小的奇蹟。你可以说国民队已经连续三年 都得到选秀会上最好的球员(Strasburg 和 Harper 则是其余两位)。 (编按：第一句不确定...) YEAR AHEAD: Rendon could start the season in either high-A or double-A. He could be ready for the Majors by the end of the 2012 season if he can stay healthy. He should have little to no trouble with minor league pitchers but will need some time to learn his new position, although he does have some experience at second base. 明年展望： 明年预计会从高阶1A或2A出发，若 Rendon 能够打满整个球季并保持健康，2013年有机 会直接挑战大联盟。小联盟投手对 Rendon 而言不成威胁，但他可能需要些时间习惯他 的新守备位置，不过 Rendon 本身之前就有过一些守二垒的经验。 CAREER OUTLOOK: The former Rice University star has the chance to be a MLB all-star at both second and third base. Although none of his injuries have been of the chronic variety, you have to be a little worried about his inability to stay healthy over the past few years. 未来展望： 有机会长成 All-Star 级的选手。Rendon 的伤势应该不至於对他有长远的影响，但还是 难免会让人担心他是否能长保健康。 3. A.J. Cole | RHP BORN: January 5, 1992 EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons (A) ACQUIRED: 2010 4th round, Florida HS 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd SCOUTING REPORT: Cole has the potential for a very good pitcher’s frame (6’4 ” 180 lbs). His fastball reaches the mid-90s already and there may be more in the tank. His secondary pitches include a potentially-plus curveball and developing changeup. Cole shows good control overall but needs better fastball command. 球探报告： 凭藉其绝佳的投手身材(6尺4寸)，A.J. Cole 具有极高的天赋。其快速球已经可以达到 mid-90s，甚至有机会更快，此外他还有一颗 plus 级潜力的曲球以及尚在开发的变速 球。整体而言 Cole 的 control 非常不错，但对快速球的 command 还有待改进。 YEAR IN REVIEW: Cole has emerged as the top pitcher in the system but two college pitchers, Matt Purke and Alex Meyer, are both hot on his heels. The young pitcher spent the year in low-A and pitched better than his 4.04 ERA would indicate, as seen by his 2.52 FIP. He gave up his fair share of hits (.342 BABIP) but missed a lot of bats (10.92 K/9) and showed above-average control (2.43 BB/9). 年度回顾： Cole 目前已经是国民农场中最顶尖的投手，Matt Purke 和 Alex Meyer 则紧追在後。 尽管 Cole 今年在低阶1A的防御率是4.04，但这是坏运气所导致的产物，进阶数据 FIP 显示 Cole 的实际数字只有2.52。他被敲出了许多安打(BABIP .342)，但却拥有相当高 的三振率(10.92 K/9)并显示出其优於平均水准的控球能力(2.43 BB/9)。 YEAR AHEAD: Cole’s 2011 season did not begin until May after being held back in extended spring training to limit his innings total. He should spend a full year in high-A ball in 2012, although a strong showing could lead to some time in double-A. If he can continue to show improvements with his secondary pitches, he could be in Washington in 2013. 明年展望： 由於球团有意限制 Cole 2011年的投球局数，因此季初就让 Cole 参加延长春训，直至 5月份才让他回低阶1A参赛。明年 Cole 应该会在高阶1A待满整个球季，若 Cole 在该 层级表现优异则有机会升上2A。假设他的第二武器球路开发顺利，最快2013年 Cole 就 能挑战升上大联盟。 CAREER OUTLOOK: Cole has the chance to be a No. 1 or 2 starter if everything breaks right for him – and his changeup improves. He may even add a few ticks to his fastball if he continues to add muscle to his slender frame. Once a weakness for this organization, Cole could help anchor a very strong starting rotation before too long. 未来展望： 若养成顺利且他的变速球确实有在进步，天花板将上看第1～2号先发。此外如果他能将 体格练得更壮硕一些，则球速还有机会更快。在不久的将来一旦国民队SP出现空缺，则 Cole 将递补上去并为国民队建构起一组强大的先发轮值。 4. Alex Meyer | RHP BORN: January 3, 1990 EXPERIENCE: College ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round, U of Kentucky (23rd overall) 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA SCOUTING REPORT: Because he’s so big (6’9” 220 lbs), Meyer may always struggle to repeat his delivery, which will hamper his command and control. He should still be able to overpower hitters, though, thanks to a 95+ mph fastball and wipeout slider. His changeup isn’t bad either, although he hasn ’t used it a lot. 球探报告： 受到身材太过高大(6尺9寸)的影响，Meyer 的投球机制总是难以固定，这也严重他的 command 以及 control；然而凭藉着动辄 95 mph+ 的快速球以及刁钻的滑球 Meyer 往往还是能彻底压制打者，同时他还有一颗不算差的变速球，不过 Meyer 本身并不常 使用这颗变速。 YEAR IN REVIEW: Meyer had a very nice junior season for Kentucky after struggling for his first two years. He flew up draft boards and eventually went 23rd overall to Washington after some draft analysts even projected him in the first 10 picks. Meyer signed late so he did not pitch in the regular season but he did attend the Nationals’ fall instructional league. 年度回顾： 进入大学後前两年都投得十分挣扎的 Meyer 终於在第三年有所突破，也使他的选秀顺序 跃升至第23顺位且最终被国民队选走，部分选秀分析专家在选秀前甚至预测 Meyer 可能 是今年选秀前10种子。由於签约时间较晚的缘故，因此 Meyer 今年无缘在小联盟赛季中 一展身手，不过他将会去参加秋季教育联盟。 YEAR AHEAD: Meyer could very well join A.J. Cole, Robbie Ray, and Matt Purke in high-A, which would create an outstanding rotation for Carolina League fans. Washington is quickly building a very strong organization and may want to challenge some of its top college picks in the hopes of having them support the likes of Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg and, eventually, Bryce Harper. 明年展望： Meyer 明年非常有机会和 A.J. Cole、Robbie Ray 及 Matt Purke 共组豪华轮值圈并於 高阶1A并肩奋战。国民队在短期内打造出相当强大的农场组织，并尝试挑选了这些大学 顶尖球员，期许能获得他们的战力回馈，如同 Jordan Zimmermann、Stephen Strasburg 以及 Bryce Harper 等人一般。 (编按：这段後半段不确定该怎麽翻比较好，恳请其他人帮忙 Orz) CAREER OUTLOOK: Boston made a big push for Meyer after drafting him out of high school but the right-hander made a smart move to attend college. His game has improved but he still has some rough edges. If he can smooth those out, he could develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter. If not, it’s not hard to envision him as a high-leverage reliever at the MLB level. 未来展望： 尽管 Meyer 进大学後确实有所进步，但他还是有些缺失。假设他能改善这些缺点，他 将是位具有第2~3号先发实力的先发投手；若是先发养成失败，至少还有机会让他改练 high-leverage RP。 5. Brian Goodwin | CF BORN: Nov. 2, 1990 EXPERIENCE: College ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, Miami Dade JC 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA SCOUTING REPORT: Goodwin is known for having good (but not great) speed on the base paths and he could also add power to his attack once he matures as a hitter. He shows signs of being a good fielder but he’s more likely to end up in left field than center. 球探报告： Goodwin 向以拥有优异(但还称不上极佳)的脚程闻名，以及未来若发展成熟可能还能 长出更多炮瓦。有机会能成长为不错的防守者，不过最後定位於左外野的机率要大於 中外野。 YEAR IN REVIEW: It’s not often that a move from a NCAA Division 1 school to a junior college works out in a player’s favor. However, that’s exactly what happened to Goodwin. It’s also important to note that he transferred after getting suspended for violating a university policy rather than for anything baseball related. 年度回顾： 从 NCAA 第一分区的大学转学至二年制专科学校这种事对一位棒球选手来说并不常见。 可以肯定的是 Goodwin 身上确实发生了一些事情。值得注意的是 Goodwin 是因为违反 大学政策，而不是任何跟棒球有关的事件，才遭到休学处分并转学的。 YEAR AHEAD: Because he played at the junior college level in 2011, the Nationals organization may want Goodwin to begin the year in low-A as he has yet to play in a pro game after signing late. He should rack up a solid number of steals because he projects to both hit for average and take the free pass when it’s offered up. He may initially struggle with strikeouts, especially if he tries to force the power game. 明年展望： 由於2011年 Goodwin 都是在二年制专科学校打球，加上签约时间较晚因此 Goodwin 目 前还没打过职业赛事，国民可能会让 Goodwin 明年先从低阶1A开始打起。 Goodwin 被 认为无论在打击上或是选球能力方面都有一定的水准，因此可预期他在盗垒数字方面将 会相当可观。一开始打职业赛他可能会像个电风扇，特别是如果他刻意想要追求敲长打 的话。 CAREER OUTLOOK: Goodwin has the potential to be a five-tool player if everything clicks. He’s a toolsy player that still has work to do on his defense and it remains to be seen if his power will develop as expected. I don ’t see him becoming a star but he could develop into a very good baseball player. 未来展望： 养成顺利的话 Goodwin 有机会成为一位五拍子型的球员。Goodwin 在各方面都颇具天赋 ，不过仍需要努力加强他的防守，同时他的炮瓦是否真能够如预期般长出来也有待观察。 我不认为 Goodwin 最终能成为一位明星级的选手，但他有机会成为一位非常不错的棒球 员。 6. Matt Purke | LHP BORN: July 17, 1990 EXPERIENCE: College ACQUIRED: 2011 3rd round, Texas Christian U 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA SCOUTING REPORT: Purke has suffered through a variety of well-documented ailments (back, shoulder, blisters) and velocity loss (down to 82-85 mph in games). When he’s on, though, he’s a southpaw that possesses an above-average 90-95 mph fastball. He rounds out his repertoire with a good slider and changeup. Durability questions will continue to haunt Purke until (if?) he can string together a number of dominating starts. 球探报告： Purke 过去遭遇过各式各样已受证实的病痛(背伤、肩伤及水泡)以及失速的问题(一度在 比赛中测到其球速只剩下82～85mph)；然而，健康的 Purke 是一位拥有一颗优於平均水 准、球速可达到90～95mph的快速球，且另外配备出色滑球和变速球的强力左投。当然， 过去丰富的伤痛纪录将使得 Purke 的耐投性不断受到质疑，直到(或该说如果)他能持续 不断彻底宰制打者为止。 YEAR IN REVIEW: Assigned to the Arizona Fall League after signing late, Purke did not pitch much. He also spent time in the fall instructional league but did not really stand out. Despite the big paycheck, the 2011 season was pretty much a lost year for Purke. 年度回顾： 由於签约时间较晚，Purke 在 AFL 将不会有太多上场时间。另外 Purke 也参加了秋季 教育联盟，不过也并没有太多表现。尽管拿到了高额签约金，但今年对 Purke 来说想 必是失败的一年。 YEAR AHEAD: The 2012 season will be a big one for Purke as he’ll look to prove that he’s healthy after a very disappointing sophomore season at Texas Christian University. The lefty may begin the year in high-A ball with a large group of impressive arms. Given his problems, though, the organization may want to play it safe and allow him to build a solid foundation in low-A ball before challenging him. At this point no one really knows what to expect from Purke but the club has a lot invested in him. 明年展望： 2012年对 Purke 而言将是非常重要的一年，他极需要在明年证明自己的身体健康状况， 以洗刷今年球季表现不佳的耻辱。 Purke 明年将有机会在高阶1A与其他国民渔塭中的顶 级投手新秀携手作战，然而鉴於他过去的健康情形，国民球团对 Purke 的态度或许会较 为保守，有可能会先让 Purke 在低阶1A打基础。即使国民在 Purke 身上下了重注，然 而现阶段没有人真正知道究竟能从这位潜力左投身上得到什麽样的回报。 CAREER OUTLOOK: Again, it’s all one big question mark at this point but Purke has the potential to be a No. 2 starter if Washington can find a way to get him back to the level he was at in high school and during his freshman season of college. 未来展望： 再一次阐明，现阶段没有人能预知 Purke 未来的发展，但只要国民能帮助 Purke 找回 他过去高中时期以及大学第一年时的身手，Purke 确实是位具有 No. 2 starter 实力 的优秀投手。 7. Brad Peacock | RHP BORN: Feb. 2, 1988 EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons (AA/AAA/MLB) ACQUIRED: 2006 41st round, Florida CC 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 9th SCOUTING REPORT: Peacock flashes a solid three-pitch repertoire that includes a 90-95 mph fastball, changeup, and curveball. He’s still working on the consistency of his changeup and his fastball command comes and goes. He doesn ’t have the strongest frame so durability could be a bit of a question mark once he hits the 180-inning mark 球探报告： Peacock 拥有三种不错的球路：速度介於90～95mph的直球，变速以及曲球。不过目前 他的变速球品质以及对快速球的 command 都还不够稳定；同时由於先天身材上的劣势 ，Peacok 的耐操程度也是一项疑虑，令人怀疑他是否能达成单季180局。 YEAR IN REVIEW: Peacock has come a long way as a prospect and made his MLB debut in 2011. The right-hander showed a solid three-pitch mix and did a nice job of using all his pitches. His changeup has been considered his third-best pitch but it looked good in the Majors. Peacock pitched well in double-A (98.2 IP, 1.87 FIP) and was OK in triple-A (48.0, 4.18). 年度回顾： Peacock 在今年有了爆发性的成长，而他在小联盟优异的表现也为他赢得在了在大联盟 的处女秀。升上大联盟後 Peacock 将自己的三种球路发挥得淋漓尽致，并取得了不错 的成果。Peacoak 的变速球向来被认为只是他第三强的球种，然而就目前看来这颗变速 也具有大联盟的水准。Peacock 今年在2A表现杰出(98局，1.87 FIP)，而在3A的表现也 还算可以(48IP，4.18 FIP)。 YEAR AHEAD: He has nothing left to prove in the minors and his development could allow the club to slot him into the fourth or fifth hole in the starting rotation, thus saving the club some money a generic veteran arm. The organization may also think about easing him into the Majors with a bullpen role. Control and command will be the biggest things to keep an eye on in 2012. 明年展望： Peacoak 在小联盟已经没什麽需要磨练的了。而他今年出色的表现也足以让球团考虑将 他列为明年的第4号或第5号先发，并藉此省下一笔添购SP老将的经费，或是让他担任牛 棚的一员。而 Peacoak 的 control 及 command 发展情况也将会是2012年观察的首要 重点。 CAREER OUTLOOK: Peacock has a good chance at developing into a reliable third starter at the MLB level. He shows a good fastball and his curveball should be a nice second weapon for him. His overall potential hinges on the changeup. If it doesn’t become more consistent, he could end up as a high-leverage reliever, most likely in the eighth inning. 未来展望： 具有成为稳定第3号先发的资质，拥有一颗非常好的快速球以及一颗还不错的曲球作为 第二武器，而培育成败的重要关键就在於他的变速球是否能练得起来。假使 Peacoak 最终未能控制好他的变速，也还有机会让他改练成一位强力布局投手。 8. Robbie Ray | LHP BORN: Oct. 1, 1991 EXPERIENCE: 1 season (A) ACQUIRED: 2010 12th round, Tennessee HS 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off SCOUTING REPORT: Ray isn’t a huge guy but he has a decent pitcher’s frame some projectability. The left-hander has an 87-92 mph fastball that has reportedly touched the mid-90s occasionally. His changeup is good but his improved breaking ball is still slurvy. He is a fly-ball pitcher that needs to work down in the zone more consistently. 球探报告： 身材不算高大，不过未来体格有机会长成合乎标准。这位左投手的速球球速介於87～92 mph之间，偶尔能飙到 mid-90s。变速球很棒，但 breaking ball 即使已经有所进步却 还是不怎麽能用。Ray 本身属於飞球型的投手，同时他还需要努力将球能够经常压在好 球带的下方。 YEAR IN REVIEW: Like Cole, Ray was held back in extended spring training in an effort to limit his innings in 2011. Once he reached low-A ball in May, the southpaw displayed a nice approach for his age. He clearly tired as the year progressed with his ERAs each month as proof: 0.38, 3.92, 1.73, 6.91, and 11.25. His last two starts of the year muddied his overall numbers with 14 hits and 12 runs allowed in 7.1 innings. 年度回顾： 跟 Cole 一样，球团基於投球局数限制的考量於季初让 Ray 参加延长春训，直至5月份 Ray 才正式投入季赛，并在低阶1A投出了以一位19岁的年轻投手来说非常出色的成绩。 不过随着球季的进行 Ray 的体力也逐渐不堪负荷，这从他逐月窜升的防御率可略窥端 倪 (0.38→3.92→1.73→6.91→11.25)，尤其他在今年最後两场先发彻底崩盘，只投了 7.1局就被狂敲14安，喷掉12分自责分，更让他的整体数字变得非常不好看。 YEAR AHEAD: Ray will not have the same innings restriction in 2012 that he had in ’11. The organization is likely expecting him to break the 100-inning mark for the first time in his career. He should spend the majority of the year in high-A ball and there is really no need to rush him now that the club has a lot more pitching depth around him. 明年展望： 2012年 Ray 将不再受到跟2011年相同的局数限制束缚。国民球团计画明年让 Ray 投超 过100局，这也将是 Ray 生涯首度挑战100局大关。 Ray 明年预计绝大多数的时间都会 待在高阶1A，毕竟以国民现有的农场SP深度而言实在没必要去 rush 一位才刚满20岁的 年轻新秀。 CAREER OUTLOOK: He’s still quite raw but Ray could develop into a solid No. 3 starter. He’ll most likely move up one level at a time and may not see the Majors until 2014, so he’s a long-term project. At worst, he should develop into a middle reliever but he hasn’t shown enough success against left-handed batters to be considered a LOOGY. 未来展望： 尽管目前 Ray 还太过青涩，但他确实具有 No.3 starter 的潜力。国民应该会让 Ray 按部就班的升级，在2014年到来之前应该都没机会於大联盟看到 Ray 的身影。最糟的 发展下 Ray 应该还是能担任一人左投，尽管目前他尚未证明自己能够压制住左打者。 9. Derek Norris | C BORN: Feb. 14, 1989 EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons (AA) ACQUIRED: 2007 4th round, Kansas HS 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd SCOUTING REPORT: Norris is a bat-first catcher, which isn’t great news when you consider his .210 batting average in 2011 at double-A. He’ll probably never hit for a huge average because he swings and misses so much but he will get on base a lot (and clog them) and provide quite a bit of pop when he makes contact with the ball. Defensively, he does a nice job throwing out runners (51% in ’10, 40% in ’11) but his receiving and game calling both need work. 球探报告： 向来以打击能力见长的 Norris 今年在2A却只缴出2成10的凄惨打击率。也许 Norris 因为挥空率过高的缺点致使他永远也无法达成高打击率的目标，但他依旧能保持高上 垒率(同时堵塞垒包)并贡献一些长打。守备方面，Norris 在狙杀垒上跑者这点发挥得 相当不错(2010年阻杀率51%，11年阻杀率40%)，但他的接球技巧以及 game calling (配球跟引导投手的能力)技能都有待磨练。 YEAR IN REVIEW: It’s been a rough two years for Norris in terms of hitting for average (.235, .210). You can blame his BABIP (.251) to some degree in 2011, but the bigger issue was the 27% strikeout rate. If we’re looking for positives for his year in double-A, it would be his walk rate (18.2 BB%) and power output (.237 ISO). 年度回顾： 过去两年 Norris 的打击率都相当惨澹(10年：.235；11年：.210)。部分球迷认为今年 有一部分原因应归咎於他的BABIP过低所致 (.251)，然而导致 Norris 打击率偏低最根 本的原因出在他那高达 27% 的被三振率。不过即使今年成绩不佳，Norris 在被保送率 (18.2% BB%)以及长打力(.237 ISO)这两点依旧表现得相当出色。 YEAR AHEAD: Quite honestly, Norris’ development is headed in the wrong direction and he’s in danger of falling out of the spotlight when it comes to the organization’s top prospects. He’ll have to have a bounce-back year while repeating double-A if he’s going to get any traction in his question to become the Nationals’ backstop of the future. Expect the organization to slow his development down. 坦白说 Norris 目前的养成情况正往坏的方向发展，而且有养坏的危机。倘若 Norris 还想要竞争国民队未来的捕手一职，明年他就必须在2A彻底反弹缴出亮眼的一张成绩单 才行。预计国民将会放慢 Norris 的发展脚步。 CAREER OUTLOOK: As implied, the 2012 season will be a big one for Norris as he looks to rebound from a disappointing year. His age works to his advantage, as does his raw power but it’s hard to project more than a backup role for him at the big league level, along the lines of Sal Fasano‘s career. Norris gets the benefit of the doubt for now because he plays a key position (albeit not overly well). 含蓄地说，2012年 Norris 应该会触底反弹。Norris 有年纪和炮瓦方面的优势，但目前 很难期待 Norris 能养成比後备捕手还好，他现在的情况跟 Sal Fasano 极为相似。现 阶段由於 Norris 就算被人们质疑，但他还是有身为捕手这样的优势存在(尽管他的成绩 并不理想)。 (编按：不行了，後面这两段恳请高人指点) 10. Destin Hood | RF/LF BORN: April 3, 1990 EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons (A+) ACQUIRED: 2008 2nd round, Alabama HS 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off SCOUTING REPORT: Swayed from a football scholarship to the University of Alabama, Hood entered pro ball with a lot of work to do to learn the nuances of the sport. He shows above-average raw power thanks to his excellent bat speed and he made big strides in 2011 in terms of pitch recognition. The outfielder has also improved his outfield defense and could become above-average at a corner spot. 球探报告： 舍弃 Alabama 大学所开出的美式足球奖学金转而效力职棒，对於这两项运动间的细微 差别 Destin Hood 还有许多部分得去学习和努力。由於其杰出的挥棒速度 Hood 展现 出高於平均但尚未开发完成的长打能力，且今年在球种辨识能力上取得了重大的突破 ，同时守备方面也有所进步，有机会成为一位优於一般水平的 corner outfielder。 YEAR IN REVIEW: Hood made a lot of strides in his game over the past year. A formerly-raw player with the potential for three or four tools, he finally began to make good on the scouting reports. Moving up from low-A to high-A in ’11, Hood saw his strikeout rate drop almost 5% to 17.9 K%, and his ISO rate rose from .104 to .168. Increasing one’s power output while actually decreasing strikeouts is a very good sign in terms of a hitter’s development. He also saw his wOBA jump from .326 to .370. 年度回顾： 与去年相比 Hood 在今年拥有长足的进步。这位尚嫌青涩的选手具有三拍子或是四拍子 的潜力，并终於开始受到球探们的称赞。今年从低阶1A转战高阶1A，Hood 将他的被三振 率降至17.9%，比去年少了将进5%，而且他的纯长打率也从.104大幅跃升至.168。在长打 能力提升的同时还降低了被三振数，对於一位打者的发展来说这是一个非常好的迹象； 此外 Hood 的 wOBA 也从去年的.326进步至.370。 YEAR AHEAD: With a little more fine tuning, Hood could zoom up this list in 2012 and is a player that prospect watchers (and fantasy players) will want to keep an eye on. All signs point to a huge breakout in double-A in 2012. Consider yourselves warned. 明年展望： 凭藉着今年优异的表现，Hood 得以名列於这份名单之上，并将开始受到其他人的关注。 所有迹象都显示 Hood 2012年在 2A 的发展将是一切最重要的转捩点。请仔细考虑你们 自己提出的预告。 CAREER OUTLOOK: If he continues to show improvement, Hood could become an above-average outfielder, both offensively and defensively, that will hit for a decent average, provide 20-25 homers and get one base at a consistent clip. 未来展望： 假使 Hood 能持续进步，他将会是一位无论攻守方面都优於一般水平、拥有平均之上的 打击率、一年能敲出20～25轰且能够稳定上垒的外野手。 The Next Five 11. Sammy Solis, LHP: Had he been healthy for all of 2011, Solis may have made the Top 10 list. His ceiling is decent and he could pitch at the level of a No. 3 starter for a few years but will likely settle in as more of a No. 4 guy. He displays good control, as well as solid command of his fastball. He has the chance to be an innings-eater thanks to his big frame (assuming the injury woes are behind him). 假使 Solis 2011年整个球季都能保持健康，他应该会是这份名单的 Top 10。资质不差 ，未来若顺利升上大联盟，大部分时期他应该会是个合格的 No.4 starter ，其他时间 有机会爆气表现得像是个 No. 3。对於快速球的 control 极佳且 command 也很不错。 假设 Solis 能够摆脱伤痛的纠缠，从他的高大身材来评断有机会成为一只工作马。 12. Chris Marrero, 1B: An ’06 first round pick out of a Florida high school, Marrero has developed slower than expected. It remains to be seen if he can produce the type of offence that clubs expect from the first base position. The organization originally tried to play him in left field but he eventually found his way back to the infield and has made some strides defensively over the past year but he’ll probably never be more than average at the position. 身为06年选秀第一轮的 Marrero 其成长比当初预计的要来得缓慢。究竟 Marrero 是否 能提供国民队对身为一垒手的他所期待的火力输出还有待观察。国民起初希望 Marrero 能够守左外野，但他最终还是回到内野，并於过去一年内在防守方面取得了重大的进步 ，然而他可能永远无法在一垒这个位置缴出高於平均的产值。 13. Steve Lombardozzi, 2B: There was talk this past season that Washington refused to trade Lombardozzi when teams asked for him. He’s produced very good numbers throughout the minors but projects to be more of an average regular than a star. He hits for average but doesn’t have much power or true foot speed; Lombardozzi is an average defensive player. 今年球季部分球队向国民要求交出 Lombardozzi 作为交易包裹时皆遭到国民队的拒绝。 Lombardozzi 今年在小联盟表现优异，不过一般还是认为 Lombardozzi 变成明星选手的 希望并不大，较有机会长成一位普通的正式球员。打击能力OK但没啥炮瓦，脚程也不是 真的特别快。被预期会是一位普通的防守型球员。 14. Zach Walters, SS: Obtained from Arizona in a late-season trade for veteran pitcher Jason Marquis, Walters projects to be a big league utility player; he’s already shown the ability to play second base, third base and shortstop. The switch-hitter has some gap power but not enough to justify the +20% strikeout rate that he posted in 2011. One scout recently commented on Walters: “Zach has always had tools; he ran average, [showed a] plus arm at times, pull power… I think that is what was intriguing about him. He had a lot of tools and needed to sharpen them… A shortstop with size, strength, power, plus arm, average run [tool], and can switch hit… Doesn’t that sound intriguing?” he asked. “Because of his versatility I think that he has a chance to be a very valuable utility player, but it hinges on whether his bat continues to improve and whether he becomes an everyday player. He is showing that he has a good chance to be a Major League regular.” 於 Jason Marquis 交易案中从响尾蛇队所获得的新秀，被预期是一位工具人，能够守 二垒、三垒以及游击。这位左右开弓的打者确实有一些长打能力，但还不足以补正他在 11年超过20%的被三振率。一位球探近期内曾这样评论 Zach Walters： 「Zach 一直具备着许多工具；其速度有平均水准，偶尔也展现过 plus 级的臂力，以及 不错的拉打炮瓦...我认为这就是为什麽 Zach 是一位耐人寻味的新秀。他是个多拍子 球员，且需要将这些工具转换为实绩，一个具备身材、实力、长打能力、优秀臂力、 平均水准的速度，而且还是个左右开弓的游击手...这难道还不够让人有兴趣吗？」 「由於他的多功能性我认为他有机会成为一位非常有价值的工具人，但成功的关键取决 於他的打击是否能持续进步，以及他是否能成为一位先发级的选手。他正在证明自己 有非常高的机率能够成为大联盟的正式选手。」 15. Jeff Kobernus, 2B: Although he might end up being a better hitter than Walters (at least more consistent), Kobernus gets knocked down for his lack of versatility. Of the two players, Kobernus has less pop in his bat and is a little to aggressive but he has better pure speed and more athleticism. 虽然 Kobernus 或许会是个比 Walters 更好的打者(至少 Kobernus 比较稳定)，但缺乏 多功能性这点对 Kobernus 而言是最严重的致命伤。与 Walters 相比 Kobernus 的炮瓦 较弱且出棒也不够积极，但就纯速度及运动天赋这两点来说 Kobernus 要胜过 Walters。 SLEEPER ALERT: Josh Smoker, LHP: Once considered a pretty good starting pitcher prospect and the 31st pick of the ’07 amateur draft, Smoker fell on hard times due to injuries and inconsistency. A permanent move to the bullpen, though, may have saved his career. His fastball is now showing mid-90s velocity and his breaking ball gives him a second weapon. He’s tough to hit when he’s on (5.68 H/9) but he needs to find the plate more consistently (6.57 BB/9). 其他值得观察的名单： Josh Smoker, LHP： 07年第31选秀顺位、一度被认为是拥有极高天份的前顶级新秀，近几年却因为饱受伤痛 折磨且进入职棒後表现也远不如预期。在决定永久转任牛棚後 Smoker 成功挽救了他的 职棒生涯。拥有一颗可以飙到 mid-90s 的快速直球，其 breaking ball 则是他重要的 第二武器。其球路非常难被击中(5.68 H/9)，但时常会找不到好球带 (6.57 BB/9)，这 点必须要加以改进。 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　(完) 　　　 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　＊＊＊＊＊＊＊ 翻得不是很好，请各位见谅。若有错也麻烦请指正，感谢:) 感想：Purke 的顺位比我所想的要低；关於 Hood 的评价远超出我的意料之外；Norris 未来的发展确实令人担忧，不过我想应该还不至於如文中所述这麽严重，以上。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 59.124.82.130 ※ 编辑: s9527206 来自: 59.120.3.52 (12/05 13:26)