原文:http://www.natsinsider.com/2011/09/revisiting-those-predictions.html#more So, you may recall back on Opening Day, I and my counterparts on the Nationals beat made some predictions for the 2011 season. Easy stuff like, you know: How many games will they win this year, and what will their exact home attendance be for the season? 让我们回到球季开幕日吧，我(指本文作者MZ)和我的同行为国民的2011球季做了些 预测。一些简单的像是这季会赢几场或是主场观众会有多少人? It's only fair, of course, that we now hold ourselves accountable to those predictions, as terribly wrong as we were. Hey, how could I sleep at night letting you all believe I predicted Tyler Clippard would make the All-Star team and Ryan Zimmerman wouldn't? (Oh wait, that's not at all what I predicted.) 现在我们要为我们的预测负责了，有些我们错得离谱。嘿，我如何让你们相信我预测 眼镜哥会代表国民打明星赛而Zimmerman不会呢?(等等，这不是我当时预测的) So without further ado, here's a look back at what we all guessed back on Opening Day, and what actually happened... 事不宜迟，让我们回到开幕日当天看看我们都预测了些什麽... 1.谁代表国民打明星赛? Who will represent the team at the All-Star Game? Mark Zuckerman (CSNWashington.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman Adam Kilgore (Washington Post) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Sean Burnett Dave Sheinin (Washington Post) -- Ryan Zimmerman Amanda Comak (Washington Times) -- Ryan Zimmerman Ben Goessling (MASNsports.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth Pete Kerzel (MASNsports.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman Bill Ladson (MLB.com) -- Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Danny Espinosa Craig Heist (WTOP) -- Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth WINNER: No one. Nobody had Tyler Clippard, though I suppose Kilgore gets some credit for picking a setup man, just the wrong one. 没人猜中。我认为Kilgore比较接近只是他猜成另一个SU。 2.本季主场观众共有多少人？ What will total home attendance be? Craig Heist -- 2,512,759 Bill Ladson -- 2,500,000 Pete Kerzel -- 1,987,654 Dave Sheinin -- 1,841,000 Amanda Comak -- 1,640,000 Ben Goessling -- 1,585,000 Mark Zuckerman -- 1,562,538 Adam Kilgore -- 1,200,000 WINNER: Kerzel, who missed the actual total of 1,940,478 by a mere 47,176. Not bad. Kerzel猜对了，只跟结果1,940,478相差47,176人，不错。 3.小史哪时候能重回大联盟先发? When will Stephen Strasburg make his next start in the majors? Craig Heist -- Aug. 21 vs. Phillies Bill Ladson -- Aug. 28 at Reds Amanda Comak -- Sept. 2 vs. Mets Mark Zuckerman -- Sept. 6 vs. Dodgers Ben Goessling -- Sept. 9 vs. Astros Adam Kilgore -- Sept. 23 vs. Braves Pete Kerzel -- April 2012 Dave Sheinin -- April 2012 WINNER: Yours truly. Somehow, I managed to nail down the exact date. Hey, you know what they say about the blind pig... 小弟不才猜中正解了。(後面不会翻) 4.飞吻哥会在哪结束球季? Where will Bryce Harper finish the season? Adam Kilgore -- Washington Pete Kerzel -- Washington Craig Heist -- Washington Amanda Comak -- Washington Bill Ladson -- Washington Mark Zuckerman -- Harrisburg Ben Goessling -- Harrisburg Dave Sheinin -- Harrisburg WINNER: Me, Goessling and Sheinin. 答案是2A，我、Goessling、Sheinin都猜中了. 5.今年飞吻哥会打几支全垒打呢? How many total home runs will Harper hit in 2011? Adam Kilgore -- 31 Mark Zuckerman -- 29 Amanda Comak -- 27 Bill Ladson -- 25 Dave Sheinin -- 24 Pete Kerzel -- 23 Craig Heist -- 22 Ben Goessling -- 19 WINNER: Goessling. Harper finished the season with 17. 6.今年Desmond会失误几次? How many errors will Ian Desmond commit? Dave Sheinin -- 28 Pete Kerzel -- 28 Ben Goessling -- 26 Mark Zuckerman -- 25 Adam Kilgore -- 25 Amanda Comak -- 24 Craig Heist -- 23 Bill Ladson -- 20 WINNER: Heist, who correctly predicted Desmond would finish with 23 errors. 7.今年胡子会打几分打点? How many RBI will Jayson Werth finish the season with? Craig Heist -- 101 Adam Kilgore -- 92 Bill Ladson -- 90 Pete Kerzel -- 89 Ben Goessling -- 88 Dave Sheinin -- 88 Mark Zuckerman -- 86 Amanda Comak -- 83 WINNER: Comak, though that's more by default than anything, because Werth amassed a scant 58 RBI this year. 8.今年的胜投王是谁?拿了几胜? Who will lead the pitching staff in wins? How many wins? Bill Ladson -- Jordan Zimmermann, 15 Mark Zuckerman -- John Lannan, 13 Adam Kilgore -- Tom Gorzelanny, 13 Craig Heist -- Jason Marquis, 13 Dave Sheinin -- Jason Marquis, 13 Amanda Comak -- Jordan Zimmermann, 13 Ben Goessling -- John Lannan, 12 Pete Kerzel -- Jordan Zimmermann, 12 WINNER: Goessling. Lannan led the staff, though only with 10 wins. 9.谁是国民今年的救援王?几次? Who will lead the pitching staff in saves? How many saves? Bill Ladson -- Sean Burnett, 25 Adam Kilgore -- Drew Storen, 24 Dave Sheinin -- Drew Storen, 24 Craig Heist -- Drew Storen, 23 Pete Kerzel -- Drew Storen, 22 Ben Goessling -- Drew Storen, 21 Amanda Comak -- Sean Burnett, 20 Mark Zuckerman -- Drew Storen, 19 WINNER: Kilgore, though he came up well short of Storen's incredible total of 43. 10.哪时候国民会动用到第6号先发投手? When will they use a sixth starting pitcher for the first time? Dave Sheinin -- April 22 at Pirates Pete Kerzel -- April 23 at Pirates Adam Kilgore -- April 30 vs. Giants Craig Heist -- May 1 vs. Giants Ben Goessling -- May 5 at Phillies Mark Zuckerman -- May 8 at Marlins Bill Ladson -- May 15 vs. Marlins Amanda Comak -- June 1 vs. Phillies WINNER: Comak, who missed by only three days. Yunesky Maya became the Nats' sixth starting pitcher on May 29. 11.国民今年会赢几场? How many games will the Nats win this season? Bill Ladson -- 82 Craig Heist -- 78 Mark Zuckerman -- 77 Pete Kerzel -- 77 Adam Kilgore -- 76 Dave Sheinin -- 76 Ben Goessling -- 74 Amanda Comak -- 74 WINNER: It's a tie between Ladson and Heist since the Nats finished with 80 wins. Those two arch-rivals will have to settle this duel with a televised debate on whether Rafael Palmeiro and Mike Mussina are Hall of Famers. (Hmm, that could take a long time to settle. Might have to tell the networks to set aside a full three hours of primetime.) Ladson猜的和Heist猜的都差了2场，国民今年拿了80胜。这两个死对头即将针对 Rafael Palmeiro 和 Mike Mussina谁该进名人堂作辩论。(可能会吵很久， 应该告诉电视台留三小时给他们) 12.加分题:小Zuckerman哪时候会出生?(预产期10.4) Special bonus question: When will the Zuckerman baby be born? (Due date: Oct. 4) Bill Ladson -- Sept. 28 Pete Kerzel -- Sept. 30 Amanda Comak -- Sept. 30 Craig Heist -- Oct. 1 Mark Zuckerman -- Oct. 2 Adam Kilgore -- Oct. 7 Ben Goessling -- Oct. 9 Dave Sheinin -- Oct. 14 WINNER: Ladson, but nobody came close to getting it right. Brian was born on Aug. 29, five weeks early. Ladson猜对了。但是Brain Zuckerman在8.29就出生了早了5个星期。 --

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