以下这篇这篇文章点出了5位被预期能够贡献和蛋哥相近程度火力的一垒手，并列出 ﹝明年年纪／BR版WAR／FanGraphs版WAR﹞来和蛋哥作比较。 (蛋哥今年11月将满31岁，而WAR分别是3.7／4.1) Last night, before Adam Dunn received an ovation each time he came to the plate and, in the process of trying "to hit every ball as far as I possibly could," struck out four times, Mike Rizzo sat with reporters and talked briefly about who will play first base in 2011. Rizzo did not offer specifics, but he made clear that if the Nationals do not resign Adam Dunn, they will need to replace him a similar player. "We need to get a four-hole hitter that plays first base," Rizzo said. "We understand that. We want it to be Adam Dunn. But if it isn't, we need to address that situation." So then if not Dunn, who could the Nationals target? Below are the five players who could reasonably be expected to replace or approach replacing Dunn's production at first base and in the cleanup spot. They are listed with their age for the majority of next season/Baseball-Reference WAR/FanGraphs WAR. (Dunn would be 32/3.7/4.1). Paul Konerko (35/4.7/4.5): Konerko is one of the few available first baseman would conceivably could be an offensive upgrade over Dunn. He hit .310/.390/.581 with 30 doubles and 38 home runs. (Konerko's .323 batting average on balls in play - 41 points higher than his career average - may have inflated his numbers.) But his advanced age would likely make him a temporary solution at best. And his defense would unlikely be an upgrade over Dunn's: His -11.9 UZR/150 ranks worst among qualifying first baseman in the majors. 今年打出了.310/.390/.581，38支全垒打的恐怖成绩。不过BABIP 0.323 比生涯平均要高 出41个百分点。而且他明年将满35岁，就算要签他也最好只签短约。另外，他的防守是全 大联盟一垒手最差的(UZR/150 是 -11.9)。 Aubrey Huff (34/5.5/5.5): Huff played some outfield this season, too, but when he played first he played it exceedingly well according to the advanced stats, posting an 11.5 UZR/150. His offensive production (.291/.382/.510 with 26 homers, 34 doubles and five triples) helped put the Giants in position to make the postseason. He played in Baltimore for 2 1/2 seasons, so perhaps familiarity with the area would make Washington attractive. (Maybe that's a reach, but I wanted to point it out, anyway.) UZR/150 11.5，不仅防守优秀而且打击三围也是优异的.291/.382/.510，还有26支全垒打 ，是老人今年能够冲击季後赛的大功臣。过去三年大多都是在巴尔地摩金莺打球，或许 可以利用这项地缘优势吸引他加盟华盛顿??(以上纯属妄想) Carlos Pena (33/1.2/1.1): The Nationals appear to be interested in Pena for what they perceive to be his outstanding defense. Pena, though, has a -2.6 UZR/150, which is actually worse than Dunn's. (Note: UZR/150 is not a be-all, end-all statistic, just one measure.) Offensively, Pena suffered a significant drop-off this season, hitting .198/.328/.411 with 28 home runs and 16 doubles in 470 at-bats. The decline could partly be owed to misfortune, as Pena's .223 batting average on balls in play this year is 65 points below his career average of .288. 目前最有可能的人选。FO似乎很尬意Pena的防守，但数据显示他的 UZR/150 是 -2.6， 比蛋哥今年的 -2.3 还来得差(嗯...好吧，当然 UZR 并不代表了一切，它也只是众多 防守数据的一种)。 不过他今年的进攻表现大幅滑落，虽打出28支全垒打但三围是.198/.328/.411的成绩， 这点是最令人起疑虑的，当然一部分的原因可能要归咎於他今年超低的BABIP(.223)，比 生涯平均(.288)要低了65个百分点。 Victor Martinez (32/2.9/3.8): The Red Sox have made him a full-time catcher, but prior to this season he split time evenly between first base and catcher. His offensive numbers suggest he could fit in as a cleanup hitter with the Nationals: He hit .300/.349/.488 with 19 home runs in 486 at-bats while playing through injury. A switch-hitter, Martinez especially brutalizes left-handed pitchers, hitting .396/.429/.732 this year. Martinez is also widely known as a fiery, unifying force in the clubhouse. 略，这根本不可能。红袜不可能放人，我们也不可能签他。V-Mart 要是真的来华盛顿 我就吃滑鼠。 Prince Fielder (27/3.9/4.0): Fielder, unlike the above players, will not be a free agent this offseason. But the Brewers control him only through the end of the 2011 season, and his salary demands may prove prohibitive for the Brewers to sign him to an extension. He received a standing ovation as he left the field in his final Brewers home game, recognition that the city, like most of baseball, believes Fielder will be traded this offseason. Fielder is an elite slugger - he hit 32 home runs with a .481 slugging percentage. But if the Nationals are trying to upgrade their defense, Fielder's -11.0 UZR/150 is second-worst in the majors among first baseman. 这到底是谁想的...退一万步来说就算我们交易来小王子，明年年底他也铁定变FA，我们 也铁定留不住他。话说小王子竟然会拒绝了酒鬼开给他的 100M / 5yrs，Bora$ 到底想要 多少...。 顺便补一下其他今年球季结束後将成为FA or 可能会变成FA的一垒手： Lyle Overbay(34/2.4/1.8)： 炮管和进攻火力明显跟蛋哥有落差，出局。 Derrek Lee(35/1.2/1.7)： 今年打得有点鸟，而且也已经满35岁了。要签来赌一把可以，但也不是长久之计。 Lance Berkman(35/1.3/2.0)： 也是今年表现不佳，明年开季时也将届满35岁，要选他吗??洋基手上还握有 Berkman 明年合约(15M)的选择权，不过应该是不会执行。 个人感想： 看来看去还是蛋哥最好 (*〞︶〝*)。健康，稳定输出，左手炮，有选球眼，长得帅(?)， 还会帮忙开电扇让队友纳凉，过去最令人诟病的防守改移防到一垒後也进步不少。不知道 能不能够双方都各退一步，签一张3+1的合约？ 另外强烈希望球团别为了省钱，结果明年看到 Michael Morse 成为开季的先发一垒手…。 (强调一下，绝对不是说 Morse 不好，只是一下子就赌他明年能够先发有点太冒险了， 晚点有空的话会翻译另一篇外电，在这里先放上来 http://tinyurl.com/248k39j) --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.43.234.47 ※ 编辑: s9527206 来自: 114.43.234.47 (10/01 05:44)