趁 leddy 大大应该在忙的时候赶快翻译 这样就不会有人鞭我翻错 颗颗 ※ 引述《s9527206 (悠)》之铭言： : 这是上个月发表在 Frngraphs 的文章， : 这篇今天就先不翻了， : 有兴趣的板友也可以看看:) : As has been well documented in this space, John Lannan has defied DIPS theory : for much of his career, posting a 3.98 career ERA in 438.2 career innings : despite a 4.83 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP. Lannan doesn’t strike out many batters : (4.58 career K/9) and walks too many (3.41 BB/9) to be considered an elite : control pitcher. His only redeemable quality as a pitcher is his extreme : ground ball rate – 52.7% for his career to only a 29.0% fly ball rate. 如同之前在这里所讨论的，John Lannan 一直是 DIPS 理论（注1）的特例，在 Lannan 生涯 438.2 局的投球中缴出了 3.98 的 ERA，尽管 Lannan 有着很糟糕 的 FIP 和 xFIP 指数－－分别为 4.83 和 4.65。Lannan 的 K/9 和 BB/9 是很 差的 4.58 和 3.41，离控球型投手有相当的距离。他唯一可称得上是投手的地方 是他的 52.7% 的 GB%－－Lannan 的生涯 FB% 为 29.0%。 **注1 DIPS (Defense independent pitching statistics): 认为球队失分会因野手的防守能力而有变化，因此在评量投手素质上会排除野手 影响。 较有名的是 FIP 指标。FIP 采纳的投球资讯包括 HR、BB、K 和 IP。 : Through three starts, Lannan’s peripherals had dipped to a career low level : – in particular, his K/BB was a staggeringly low 0.78. Thanks to his : inability to control the strike zone or get batters out through any way but a : ground ball, Lannan’s FIP sat at 5.69 entering Wednesday night’s start : against Colorado. 但在这三场先发中，Lannan 向来不擅长的 DIPS 表现硬是飙向了生涯新低－－ 特别是 0.78 的 K/BB 值。Lannan 对 pitching outcome 的低掌控力让他的 FIP 在礼拜三晚上与 Rockies 的对赛之前降至了 5.69。 : Things didn’t improve for Lannan, despite a Nationals victory. On the plus : side, Lannan only allowed one walk, but he also couldn’t find the strikeout, : either. Finally, allowing so many balls in play is catching up to Lannan. On : Wednesday, he allowed 11 hits in total, including one homer, and was pretty : much knocked around by the Rockies for the whole game. 尽管 Nats 赢得胜利，但 Lannan 的困境并没有因此好转。往好处想，Lannan 只 投了一颗保送，虽然他没投出半颗三振。击球停留在场内的机率太高的隐忧一直 尾随着 Lannan。礼拜三的比赛中，Lannan 被敲出 11 支安打，其中一只是 HR， 是队上表现较差的。 : Lannan just doesn’t have the type of stuff to make batters miss. His career : swinging strike rate of 5.8% is well below the league average, and that has : dropped to 3.7% so far this year. On Wednesday, he only drew 2 swinging : strikes in 106 pitches – only 1.8% swinging strikes. A pitcher cannot rely : on called strikes to induce strikeouts, and at the rate that Lannan is : drawing whiffs both for this season and for his career as a whole, he likely : won’t be able to draw enough strikeouts to be effective. Lannan 没有很好的 stuff 引诱打者挥空。Lannan 的 5.8 % 的生涯 swinging strike% 在联盟中排名相当低，而今年开赛至今更衰退到只有 3.7%。礼拜三的 比赛中，106 球的投球只有 2 次打者挥空（约1.8%）。投手不可能只依靠 call strike 制造三振数，而今年的 Lannan 又有三振数过低的问题，数据上显示 Lannan 在制造三振上可能面临了相当的问题。 : The ridiculous amount of balls in play that Lannan allows is finally catching : up to him, it would appear. It is a long season, and there is time for Lannan : to revert to the form that added up to that 3.98 ERA the first few years of : his career. As Joe mentioned earlier this month, Lannan has been a bit of a : study in DIPS theory for his whole career. What we’re seeing now is much : closer to what DIPS theory would tell us to expect from a pitcher like Lannan. Lannan 夸张高的 BIP% 最终会拖垮他。赛季还很长，还有时间可以让 Lannan 调适回生涯初期的那个 3.98 ERA 的 Lannan。如 Joe 日前提到的，Lannan 一 直是 DIPS 理论在探讨的个体。现在我们所期待见到的 Lannan 正与 DIPS 理 论对於 Lannan-like 投手的期望模型逐渐靠拢。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.191.107 ※ 编辑: kimifort 来自: 140.119.191.107 (05/05 11:07)