Lamenting Lannan's labors By Mark Zuckerman Monday, May 3, 2010 There is much angst this morning in NatsTown over the de facto ace of the pitching staff, who has pitched nothing like an ace so far this season. 今天 NatsTown 的早晨弥漫着忧郁的气氛，只因为我们的王牌投手表现失常，今年 球季到目前为止他实在表现得不像是名ACE。 John Lannan may not have ace stuff, but he entered the season as the Nationals' best starter, and his track record over the last 2 1/2 years suggested he'd established himself as a solid big-league pitcher. 或许 Lannan 并没有ACE级的stuff，但是以往当球季开始後他就一直是我们队上表 现最好的先发投手。过去两年多所累积的成绩显示他已经证明自己的确是一位可靠 的大联盟等级的投手。 The left-hander's numbers through six outings -- 1-2, 6.34 ERA, a staggering 1.93 WHIP -- suggest he's anything but solid. And yesterday's ragged outing in Miami, in which he was roughed up for six runs on nine hits in five innings, suggests this may be more than a blip on the radar screen. 然而迄今为止他所缴出的六场先发内容 -- 1胜2败，防御率6.34，同时WHIP值是吓 人的1.93 -- 这样的成绩实在说不上是可靠。还有昨天他在迈阿密也是投得十分挣 扎，惨遭马林鱼队打者的毒手 -- 只投5局就被敲出9支安打而且狂失6分 -- 这个 迹象暗示着可能不仅只是短暂性的不稳而已。 So what's going on here? Is Lannan merely going through a rough patch, or is he finally regressing into the sub-par major leaguer many stathounds have been saying he would become? 所以，这究竟是怎麽一回事呢？或许这只是代表他目前正处於低潮；还是说，就如 同大多数的专家过去一直所说的，最终 Lannan 将会回归成为一位低於联盟平均的 投手？ For those unaware with the sabermetrics argument against Lannan, it basically boils down to this: He's the least-effective pitcher in baseball at making hitters swing and miss. Batters make more contact against him than any other pitcher in the game. For the last 2 1/2 years, Lannan has merely been lucky that all those balls put into play have been hit right at fielders, especially groundballs. Eventually, the law of averages was going to start turning those outs into base hits. 以棒球统计学的观念来切入分析，那些对 Lannan 比较不利的论据基本上可以归纳 成以下所述：以「能够让打者挥空」的观点来看，Lannan 可说是最缺乏效率的投手 。相较於其他的投手，在比赛中打者可以更容易打到 Lannan 的球。而他之所以过 去两年半以来没被打爆只是因为很幸运地，大部分这些被打进场内的球都刚好朝着 守备员而去，尤其是滚地球。基於平均律修正的结果，以往这些出局数现在都可能 形成安打。 Indeed, it is really tough to be a successful pitcher when only 24 of the 561 pitches you've thrown this season have been swinging strikes. So that may in part explain Lannan's struggles. 实际上，当你今年球季投到现在已经投了561球，但是竟然只有24颗球让打者挥空 形成好球，想要成为一位成功的投手真的相当困难。这也许可以解释一部分为何 Lannan 目前会投得如此挣扎的原因。 Here, though, is another explanation: Lannan has had no command of his pitches whatsoever. 不过这里还有另一个解释：Lannan到现在都还无法控制好他的投球。 I just re-watched the first three innings of yesterday's game, paying particular attention to catcher Wil Nieves' positioning as Lannan begins his windup. I'd say Lannan missed the target at least 80 percent of the time, and almost always left the ball higher in the zone than Nieves wanted it. 我刚才重新看了昨天比赛的前三局内容，并且特别注意当 Lannan 准备开始他的投球 动作时捕手 Wil Nieves 手套所摆的位置。我必须说昨天比赛过程中 Lannan 至少有 80%以上的时间都找不到投球的准心，而且球的进垒点几乎总是比 Nieves 所要的位置 还来的高。 Nieves set up for almost every single pitch on the lower, outside corner of the plate. Several times, he motioned with his glove to "keep it down," almost patting the ground in the process. And almost every time, the catcher had to bring his glove up to retrieve Lannan's pitch. Nieves 几乎每一球都设定为偏低、偏外角的位置，并不时用手套提醒 Lannan「把 球路压低」，甚至还在示意过程中轻拍地板。但几乎每一次，Nieves 都必须把他的 手套抬高才能接到 Lannan 的球。 For the first two innings, Lannan was able to get away with it. He either got guys to hit groundballs or took advantage of the spacious outfield at Sun Life Stadium to get flyouts. But it all came crashing down in the third inning, when the Marlins scored four runs and seized control of the game. 在前两局，Lannan 还有办法侥幸逃过因为球路偏高而可能造成的伤害；他让打者 不是打成滚地球出局，就是善加利用 Sun Life Stadium 外野宽广的特性，让打者 只能击成平凡的飞球被接杀。但到了第三局一切就彻底崩盘，这一局马林鱼一口气 得到4分，在这之後就此掌握住了整场比赛。 Hanley Ramirez's home run? Nieves called for a change-up and set up in his familiar, low-and-outside location. Lannan threw it right down the heart of the plate. Ronny Paulino's double to left? Nieves was set up on the inside corner; Lannan left it out over the plate. 关於 Hanley Ramirez 在第三局的那支3分打点全垒打呢？本来 Nieves 是配了一颗 变速球，同时要求把球投到那令人觉得熟悉的，也就是偏低偏外侧的位置，结果 Lannan 却把这球投到了本垒板正中央。那 Ronny Paulino 左边方向的二垒安打呢？ Nieves 这次则是决定配一颗内角球，但 Lannan 则是投到了外角。 This has been a frustrating five weeks for Lannan, a perfectionist if there ever was one. Even on the few occasions when he's gotten reasonable results, he's been upset at himself for not doing better, not pitching deeper into games, not avoiding the one big hit that's gotten him into trouble. 最近五个礼拜对 Lannan 这位完美主义者来说肯定觉得十分沮丧，如果他还是的话 。即使过去有几次他表现得不错，他仍会因为没能够做得更好，或是不够积极投入 比赛、又或者是因为没能避免被对手打出一支长打因此让他陷入困境等等而对自己 感到生气。 Look, Lannan knows what he is. He's never going to be a strikeout pitcher. If he's going to make it long-term as a big-league pitcher, he's got to be able to locate his pitches -- especially his fastball -- better than just about anybody else in the game. 看吧！Lannan 很清楚他自己的定位。他永远都不会变成一位三振型的投手。所以如 果他想要能够在大联盟投得长久，他就必须比任何人都能够更确实地把球投到准确 的位置，特别是他的快速球。 For 2 1/2 seasons, he was able to do just that. For the last month, he hasn't. 过去两年半的球季，他都能够把球控好；然而最近一个月，他却没能做到这一点。 If he's able to rediscover that innate ability to throw a baseball 88 mph and hit a dime, he'll return to his previous form and be a successful pitcher for the Nationals. If he's not ... well, Lannan and the Nats are in trouble. 如果 Lannan 可以重新找回他在控球方面的天赋 -- 尽管他的球速只有88英里却能够 准确命中一枚十分钱的硬币，他将会重新恢复成过去的他，并且成为国民队一名出色 的先发；但如果他做不到...好吧，这下子不论是 Lannan 还是国民麻烦可就大了。 原文： http://natsinsider.blogspot.com/2010/05/lamenting-lannans-labors.html#more --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.135.43.84 ※ 编辑: s9527206 来自: 140.135.43.84 (05/04 22:43)