Washington Nationals have major personnel decisions to make By Thomas Boswell Monday, March 15, 2010 这篇文章老实说还蛮长的，有兴趣的朋友就稍微多点耐心把它看完吧！ 不过这篇内文的重点其实版上的文章都已经有了，主要就是关於Desmond， Strasburg，Storen开季的方向还有讨论是否该跟Dunn续约等等 几乎都是些老调重弹的问题Zzzz，只是多少加了些解释和说明。 没兴趣的朋友大致上看一下上色的部份就行了。 以上！ The last weeks of spring training offer classic questions that a century of debate has never resolved. If you're a fan who loves to argue, which means everybody, then you're in heaven. If you're the club that faces those decisions, you lose hair every day. Right now, the Nats have just such quandaries everywhere they look. 在过去几周的春训当中，有好几个典型的问题被人们丢出来询问，这些问题不外乎 就是那些彷佛快争论了一个世纪，但到现在都还没有解决的疑问。 如果你是某个喜欢与人争辩的球迷--这代表着所有的人--我要恭喜你，毫无疑问 你现在已经在天堂了。如果你是某位球团高层，我相信面对这些抉择你每天都 因为压力过大而害得头发不断减少。 而现在，国民队的确有着许多为难之处。 Should they go with the red-hot rookie shortstop, Ian Desmond, on opening day or stick with the aging, expensive incumbent for one last year? Should they risk rushing an equally impressive rookie reliever, Drew Storen, into their bullpen, even though he signed his first pro contract just nine months ago? And do they push hard between now and opening day to sign Adam Dunn, their all-hit-no-field cleanup slugger, to an extension or risk losing him at the end of this year if he sticks to his word, won't negotiate during the season then goes free agent next winter? 究竟，他们到底该不该启用目前在春训打击状况绝佳的新人游击手Ian Desmond，并且 将他视为开幕战的先发人选，或者是坚持让已经开始老化而且价格又贵的Guzman继续 担任应该是他在国民队最後一年的先发？ 究竟，他们是否应该冒着有可能会Rush到备受瞩目的新秀中继投手Drew Storen的风险， 仍坚持将他放进我们的牛棚里，即使他在短短9个月之前才签下了他的第一张职业合约？ 还有，国民队是否应该赶在目前到开幕战的这段时间内和Adam Dunn--这位彷佛每次都想 把小白球干出球场而全力挥击的国民队第四棒强打者--完成续约？或者，冒着今年球季 结束後失去他的风险，等到Dunn成为自由球员後再来跟他谈签新约的事？毕竟Dunn 如果坚持他自己曾说过的承诺，那他将不会在季中协商有关他的合约的事情。 这样的话就只能等到Dunn在今年冬天成为自由球员之後才能开始讨论。 Compared with these three problems, everything else is easy. Send Stephen Strasburg to the minors until June, thus delaying his free agent eligibility a year. It's good player development and good business, too. As for that rotation tangle, just let 'em fight it out. It's going to be a fascinating mess all year as injured arms return. However, the decisions about Desmond, Storen and Dunn -- none of them easy or obvious -- have long-term implications. 跟这些问题比较起来，其他事情就轻松多了。把Stephen Strasburg送到小联盟去磨练 到6月为止，如此就可以拖延他晚一年的时间成为自由球员。这对於Strasburg未来的发展 和球队未来的利益可说是一举两得。至於有关轮值的问题，就交给他们自己去竞争， 尤其是当伤兵归队之後，接下来一整年就可以好好欣赏这些选手们的良性竞争了。 然而，无论是关於Desmond、Storen还是Dunn的决策--先不论这些决策究竟是不容易的 或者是显而易见的--都将会产生深远的影响。 GM Mike Rizzo has told Manager Jim Riggleman to pick his starting shortstop, Desmond or Cristian Guzmán. That's a skipper's call. But if Riggleman picks Guzmán, then Rizzo believes Desmond should play every day in the minors, even though he's had 2,749 pro plate appearances. That would have been a lot of seasoning even in Ted Williams's day, much less now. But Rizzo's strong preference is that Desmond play every day -- somewhere. GM Mike Rizzo已经告诉过总教练Jim Riggleman，请他决定究竟是让Desmond还是Guzman 成为我们的先发游击手。这是身为老船长的Rizzo的要求。 但如果Riggleman最後选择的是Guzman，那Rizzo就会让Desmond回去打小联盟，他相信 天天出赛对他会比较好--即使Desmond已经在小联盟打了2749个职业打数--这样的打数 在Ted William所处的那个年代，已经是必须好几个球季所累积才能达到的数字了， 而且恐怕现在Desmond所累积的数字还要更远远超过。 尽管如此，Rizzo依旧会持续坚持Desmond必须天天出赛--不管是在任何地方。 There's a third option: Make Desmond a super-sub who starts at three different positions (shortstop, second base and outfield) in '10. Then he can take over at short in '11. These days, baseball has several valuable utility men who get more than 400 at-bats, such as Mark DeRosa, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe or Brendan Harris. One such role player, Ben Zobrist, even evolved into a star. But none of those players, when they were made utility men, were still projected as young standouts. You don't mess up the mind of a kid you still think may be a star as the Nats do Desmond. 这里还有第三个选项： 把Desmond当作是一个超级工具人，让他今年先发守三个不同的位置--游击、二垒 以及外野，这样他就能在明2010年正式接手成为正职的先发游击手。 这几年，棒球界有几位非常好用的工具人球员，而且他们甚至得到了超过400个打席， 像是Mark DeRosa，Craig Counsell，Juan Uribe以及Brendan Harris。而其中一位 同样是属於工具人角色的Ben Zobrist，他甚至进化成为了一位明星选手。 但是当这些球员被定位是一个工具人打球的时候，并没有任何一个人被期待能够成为 一位年轻且表现杰出的优秀选手。你不能冀望你把一个年轻人的定位整个打乱之後， 还认为他能够继续拥有近乎明星等级的表现，现在Desmond也是同样的道理。 Last year, at 24, the 6-foot-2, 210-pound Desmond finally went from a prospect with too many strikeouts and errors into the most exciting all-around player the Nats had, after Ryan Zimmerman and Nyjer Morgan. When the Nats came to D.C. in '05, you heard Desmond's name a lot. Then, his career blurred. Partly because of injuries, he just wasn't quite as good as hoped. 24岁，身高6尺2寸，重达210磅的Desmond，在过去是一个容易遭到三振和发生失误 的年轻新秀，然而在去年他却变身了！成为国民队继Ryan Zimmerman和Nyjer Morgan 之後，令人惊艳的全方位选手。在05年国民队刚搬到华盛顿的时候，你几乎到处都可以 听到Desmond的名字。然而，Desmond的职业成绩并不理想，应该说他并没有发挥出 他在预期中所该有的好表现，这当然有一部分是因为受伤的缘故。 Then, suddenly, last year, he was better than imagined. His OPS was .878 in the minors and .879 in a September call-up. He's not that good; Derek Jeter's career OPS is .847. But, for the last three years, Desmond's OPS has been .820. Guzzy's career number: .693. Now, in Viera, Desmond is on fire again, going 10 for 21 with 11 RBI, 5 extra-base hits, 2 steals and lots of range at short. 在这之後，去年他的表现突然变得比想像中的还要更好。去年他在小联盟的成绩， OPS高达.878，而在9月份被叫上大联盟之後他的OPS甚至有.879，不过这当然不是 他真正的实力；Derek Jeter生涯OPS也不过.847左右而已。但是在过去这三年， Desmond的OPS是.820的好成绩，而Guzman的职业生涯呢？只有0.693。 而在目前进行的春训比赛当中，Desmond的打击手感依旧火烫，21个打数中击出 10支安打，其中有5支是长打，带有5分打点，另外还有2次盗垒成功，同时也 展现出他在游击区广大的守备范围。 If Desmond starts at shortstop, what happens to Guzmán's midseason trade value? The last three years, he's hit over .300 combined. If he is on the bench and grouchy like Ronnie Belliard last summer, you may get little. 如果Desmond最後成为先发的游击手，那Guzman在季中的交易价值会变得如何呢？ 在过去3年，总计他还是有超过3成的打击率。如果他因为坐板凳发牢骚而变得令人 难以忍受，就像去年的Ronnie Belliard一样，那国民队可能就得不到什麽好货了。 The feeling here is that, assuming he finishes spring training strongly, Desmond should play every day. Find out the truth about his defense at short. Is he only a high-ball hitter that big leaguers will figure out? If he flops, it's better to find out now; don't go into '11 with a Desmond fantasy. 我的感觉是这样：假设最後Desmond在春训的表现非常优异，那就应该让他每天先发。 同时藉此机会观察他在游击区的防守能力究竟表现如何，以防如果他被大联盟的投手 发现他只是个会打快速球的打者呢？如果他失败了，最好现在就立刻发现到这一点； 这样就不用在2011年仍抱着和Desmond有关的不切实际的幻想不放。 Storen is a paradox: He may be too good for his own good. "I see him the first time. He's unbelievable. Fastball, curveball, you just say, 'Wow!' " said Livan Hernandez. "The ball explodes." Storen则是个矛盾的存在：他将来的表现很可能远比他本身所拥有的资质还要来得 更加优异。 「当我第一次看到他的时候，简直是令人难以置信。」 Livan Hernandez说道。 「快速球，然後是曲球，你只能说一声『杰克！这真是太神奇了!』」 「他的球看起来就像爆炸似的快速喷了出来。」 Because he's emotionally mature for 22, the temptation to put Storen in the bullpen early in '10, perhaps even on opening day, then push him into the closer's job in '11, may be great. But, for 50 years, precocity has usually been tragic career news for kid closers. Storen仅仅才22岁左右，还只是个容易情绪化的年轻人。这样的球员当然会让人产生 某种诱惑，想尽快在今年就把他放进牛棚里，甚至开幕战当天就让他上场投球，然後 明年Storen就会接手终结者的角色。这建议听起来似乎感觉不错，不过当你50年後再 回过头来看就会发现，太早就把年轻人推去当终结者往往会导致他们的职业生涯产生悲剧。 Of all active closers, how many saved 20 before they were 25? Not Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman or Billy Wagner. Only Francisco Rodriguez and Huston Street. 在现任的所有终结者当中，有哪些人在25岁之前就达到20次以上救援成功的？ Papelbon，Mariano Rivera，Trevor Hoffman还有Billy Wagner？以上这些人都不对。 答案是只有K-ROD以及Huston Street这两位而已。 Young relievers' arms are at even greater risk than starters'. You can count on your fingers the relievers who've saved 20 games before age 25 who were not incinerated before age 30. A few were great: Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter. But it's more common when you close games at age 21 to 23, to end up with arm problems like Chad Cordero or the Orioles'Chris Ray. For years, most relievers were converted starters, so they went to the bullpen at older ages. That distorts the history books. But if the Nats put Storen's arm through ninth-inning strains before '12, his career may well mirror those of Gregg Olson, Bobby Thigpen and Mitch Williams. They had several fine years, made enough money for a lifetime but had little left in the tank by 28. 年轻中继投手的手臂比起先发投手还要更容易受伤。你可以自己数数看有哪些在25岁以前 就投出20次救援成功的投手在30岁之前还没有爆掉的？嘛，当然还是有少数几个投的 还不错的，像是Rollie Fingers，Goose Gossage，还有Bruce Sutter。但是更常见的 是当你21~23岁就负责替球队关门，最後就因为手臂受伤而不得不提早结束选手生命， 例如Chad Cordero(囧)还有前金莺的终结者Chris Rayro。 多年来，大部分的中继投手都转作先发，因此他们都等到年纪增长到一定程度之後之後 才进到牛棚，这个改变扭转了历史课本的内容。但如果国民在2012年以前就把Storen 推上火线负责第9局的任务，他的职业生涯将会变得和Gregg Olson，Bobby Thigpen以及 Mitch Williams等人相同。这些投手都曾经有好几年投的非常成功，也赚到了 有生之年足够花用的金钱，然而他们一旦超过28岁之後就开始走下坡了。 The Nats' final puzzle of the spring is Dunn. He is, by all measures, one of the 15 best offensive players in the 16-team National League. And, at 30, he should be in his prime for several years. So he's a genuinely rare commodity: In his peak seasons, probably willing to sign for three years, a true cleanup man but also a fine fit to bat No. 5 if you develop another heart-of-the-order bat. 国民队在春训最後的一个难题就是有关於Dunn的合约。在国家联盟16支球队的所有球员 当中，Dunn毫无疑问都是排在前15名的最佳打者之一。今年30岁的Dunn未来好几年都 应该是他职业生涯的黄金时期，因此他的确是个货真价实的稀有商品。因此在Dunn的这段 高峰期，国民队应该会试着和他签下一份长约三年的合约。他是一位真正的第四棒打者， 同时如果能找到另一位核心打者的话，他也将是非常合适的第5棒人选。 However, there is the question of his defense: It is either very poor or else the worst in the history of spherical objects. Scouts generally say the former. Stat buffs swear it's the latter. Now, with every ball in every game charted, down to its parabolic trajectory, Dunn has been either the most prominent victim of these new stats, or the most exposed sinner. The only way he could rank worse would be if, when he actually caught a ball, he deliberately threw it into the stands. That's why the Nats got him late and cheap in '09. 不过，这里有一个很严重的问题，那就是关於Dunn的守备能力。如果Dunn的守备不是 非常差劲的话，那他应该就是球类运动史上最糟糕的防守者了。球探们通常会表示Dunn 是属於前者，然而数据派却发誓他绝对是属於後者。现在，随着每一场比赛的每一颗球 都被彻底纪录，到将这些纪录做成的抛物线轨迹，每一样纪录都明确指出Dunn如果 不是守备数据所显示最凄惨的野手，就是最容易遭到猛烈抨击的罪人。唯一有可能 比他现在的守备还要更糟糕的情况是：当他接到球之後就故意把球用力丢到看台上去了。 这就是为什麽国民能够在2009年的自由市场上等到很晚而且又能便宜签下Dunn的原因。 If the Nats can extend Dunn for three years for close to $40 million, they should do it -- and fast. His defense may improve. If it doesn't, he's still a bargain because the stat lovers have probably overshot in their zeal for quantifying. It's the way of things. They themselves may be the new inefficiency in the market. Dunn's defense should slash his price, but not slaughter it. If the Nats don't extend Dunn, as they signed Ryan Zimmerman to an extension moments before last opening day, they and their fans should understand the implications. When a player says he won't continue negotiations during the season, he usually means it. Then, after playing all season, risking injury, with no long-term security, when that player reaches free agency intact, he almost always leaves his old team. Feelings get hurt. 如果国民能够跟Dunn延长3年的合约并且将价格压到接近40MM左右，他们就应该马上 搞定这件事，而且要快。Dunn的守备可能会有所进步，如果没办法改进这一点，那他 就还是个便宜货--只因为统计学爱好者一定会尽其所能地将Dunn的守备能力加以数据化， 这就是目前的情况。他们有可能会在自由市场上造就出一股新的低迷景况。Dunn的守备 当然多少会降低他本身的价值，不过倒还不至於到任人宰割的地步。 如果国民决定不跟Dunn续约--也就是说不采取如同去年在开幕战之前跟Ryan Zimmerman 签下延长合约这样的的方式来走的话，国民和国民队的球迷们就必须要了解到这样的 动作所代表的含意。而当一个选手表示他不想在球季间谈合约的时候，他通常就是指 这个含意。在打满整个球季，而且还是冒着有可能受伤的风险，也没有长期合约所保障 的安全感，此时这位选手又成为完整的自由球员，几乎都会选择离开原本所属的球队。 而这一点总是很伤感情。 Decisions, decisions. Losing the first 10 games in Florida, while annoying, will be forgotten quickly. How the Nats handle Desmond, Storen, Strasburg and Dunn will reverberate for years. 抉择，紧接着必须做出决策。我们在佛罗里达的春训赛是十连败，这多少会让人感到 有些恼怒，不过这种事情很快就会被遗忘了。然而国民对於Desmond，Storen，Strasburg 以及Dunn等人的判断和处理，将会有长达数年的深远影响。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.135.43.84 ※ 编辑: s9527206 来自: 140.135.43.84 (03/16 10:41)