http://natsinsider.blogspot.com/2010/02/rating-rotation.html 还没翻完，先来困 February 28, 2010 Posted by Mark Zuckerman VIERA, Fla. -- For all the progress they made this winter in bolstering their lineup, overhauling their bullpen and improving their defense, the Nationals know it won't mean a thing if they don't get better starting pitching in 2010 than they got in 2009. A unit that boasted only one guy with more than five wins (John Lannan) and one guy with more than 106 innings pitched (Lannan, again) needs to perform better if this club is going to approach respectability after two straight 100-loss seasons. There's good reason to believe things will be better this time around. Lannan has another year of experience. The reliable Jason Marquis has been added to the mix. Scott Olsen appears to be healthy again, or close to it. Chien-Ming Wang and Stephen Strasburg should join the club sometime during the season's first half. If all goes as the Nationals hope, this could have the makings of a legitimate rotation by midseason. But as we sit here today, five weeks until Roy Halladay and the Phillies arrive at Nationals Park, this remains the Nats' biggest question mark. Can Lannan take the next step? Will Marquis be a steadying influence on the young arms? Will Wang's shoulder hold up and allow him to recapture his form from 2006-07 with the Yankees? Can Olsen not only stay healthy but also pitch to his abilities? Will Strasburg be the real deal? And will any of the other younger starters step up and seize this opportunity? All of these will continue to be question marks throughout the rest of spring training, but it seems appropriate at this juncture to begin a weekly look at the state of the rotation, an update of where things stand and what needs to happen between now and April 5. So let's run through all of the contenders for starting jobs, ranked from the guy most likely to be on the Opening Day roster to the guy least likely to make it to D.C. ... 1. JOHN LANNAN -- The rock of the Nats' rotation, Lannan will either start Opening Day or stand right behind Marquis as the club's No. 2 starter. No matter what position he holds, the 25-year-old lefty has already established himself as a capable major-league pitcher. Now it's time for him to take the next step, to start pitching deeper into games, to stop making that one mistake that often costs him victory and to flip-flop his 9-13 record from last season. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 100 percent. 1. JOHN LANNAN -- 国民队轮值的基石，将会是开幕战先发或在 Marquis 後的二号 投手。不管处在哪一号位置上，这位25岁的左投已经建立合格大联盟投手名声。现在 是该更进一步的时候，将局数吃的更深一点，以免下场後火牛阵上来捣乱，搞得去年 只有9胜13败。 名列开幕战名单机率：100% 2. JASON MARQUIS -- Like Lannan, Marquis is a lock to make the squad. It's just a matter of which title he holds: Ace or No. 2 starter. The 31-year-old righty is by no means a typical ace, and he probably shouldn't be more than a No. 3 or No. 4 starter on a good club. But on this team, he's a much-needed, reliable starter who will churn out innings and more often than not give his team a chance to win. That said, Marquis does need to be careful not to let certain innings or starts get out of hand, keep his ERA in the low-4.00s and keep his body healthy. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 100 percent. 2. JASON MARQUIS -- 如同 Lannan，Marquis 名字已经被写在开幕战名单中。差别在於 是王牌还是二号。这位31岁的老将不像标准的王牌，在别支强队了不起是第三、四号投手 。可是不好意思，在国民队 Marquis 变得非常重要，因为它能吃掉大量的投球局数， 提高球队赢球机率。(That said, Marquis does need to be careful not to let certain innings or starts get out of hand, keep his ERA in the low-4.00s and keep his body healthy. 这段我看不懂) 名列开幕战名单机率：100% 3. LIVAN HERNANDEZ -- Unemployed a week ago, Hernandez now appears a safe bet to be in D.C. come April. He may be in camp on a minor-league contract, but it would take something out of the ordinary -- the emergence of several young starters, an injury -- for him not to earn a spot on the roster. Like Marquis, he's never going to be more than a middle- to back-of-the-rotation guy. But on this team, he'll provide a bunch of sorely needed innings until Wang and The Phenom arrive. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 75 percent. 3. LIVAN HERNANDEZ -- 原本一星期前 Hernandez 还是位失业人士，国民队用小联盟 合约替自己买了一份保险。所以一旦有新秀窜起或受伤，Livo 可能就会消失在正选名 单中。就像 Marquis 一样，Hernandez 不出轮值中後半段。可他是华盛顿最需要的工 作马，能提供许多出局数直到小王和天才小史归队。 名列开幕战名单机率：75% 4. SCOTT OLSEN -- Pretty much everyone of consequence in the Nats' front office really wants Olsen to make the rotation. They want his shoulder to be 100 percent healthy, and they want him to return to the form he displayed in Florida before getting traded prior to last season. But the results so far have been mixed and the lefty admits he's still getting his feel back on the mound. There's still plenty of time in camp, but the Nats need to be reasonably sure Olsen is A-OK by mid-March or else risk paying his entire $1 million salary whether he's healthy or not. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 50 percent. 4. SCOTT OLSEN -- 在国民队 front office 心目中，Olsen 一直是轮值中的一员， 他们希望 Olsen 肩膀能恢复健康，回到在马大鱼时巅峰。可事总与愿违，这位左投 坦承他正在回到大道的路途中。目前国民队还有些时间，他们必须在3月中确认 Olsen 状态，来决定是否冒险吃下一百万的合约。 名列开幕战名单机率：50% 5. GARRETT MOCK -- There may not be a pitcher in camp receiving more praise than Mock. (Well, aside from Strasburg, of course.) Seriously, though, I've heard several team officials rave about Mock's stuff and his potential to be a big-time starter. His performance in actual big-league games, however, has been less-than-inspiring to this point. It's time for Mock to learn how to use his superb stuff and perform like a real pitcher. If the season began today, it looks like he'd get his chance to do just that. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 40 percent. 5. GARRETT MOCK --在春训营里没有任何一位投手得到超过 Mock 的褒奖。(当然， 史宝哥是例外) 甚至可以认真地说，有许多他队高层看好 Mock 天赋与实力，有机会 成为当代强投。然而转过头去看真实成绩，就只能让人摇头叹气。对 Mock 来说，现 在该是时候用实力展现出相匹配成绩。假如球季从今天开打，他应该是有机会。 名列开幕战名单机率：40% 6. CRAIG STAMMEN -- Stammen's name has come up a lot as a potential relief candidate, but to be honest, I just don't see any available spots in an already-crowded bullpen. To me, he either makes it as a starter or he opens the year starting at Syracuse. He does have the best track record among the young guys in the mix, having thrown 105 2/3 innings as a rookie and coming through with several impressive outings. But you also have to wonder if we already seen the best he's got, and whether any actual improvement is likely. If Olsen isn't healthy or Mock isn't consistent, Stammen seems like the next logical choice. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 30 percent. 6. CRAIG STAMMEN -- Stammen 名字好几次被提到在後援名单里。 假如 Olsen 伤势未癒或 Mock 没准备好，Stammen 将会是下一个选择。 名列开幕战名单机率：30% 7. MATT CHICO -- Like Mock, Chico has been receiving some impressive reviews from coaches and team officials this spring. Fully healthy at last following his summer 2008 Tommy John surgery, the left-hander is throwing the ball harder than he ever did pre-injury and seems confident in his ability again. He's out of options, so the Nats would risk losing him on waivers if he doesn't make the club. But the guess here is that he could slip through unclaimed because it's been so long since he was last seen on a big-league mound. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 20 percent. 7. MATT CHICO -- 如同 Mock，Chico 收到教练团及球团高层许多好评。在2008年 开完 Tommy John 手术复原後，这位左投球路变得更强劲，而且看起来更有自信。 由於 Chico 已经用完选择权，如果开季没搭上末班车，国民得冒着失去它的风险。 当然其他球队也有可能放弃挑选他的权力，毕竟 Chico 已经缺席一年多了。 名列开幕战名单机率：20% 8. J.D. MARTIN -- Team officials like Martin's simple approach to pitching, and they like that he held his own in 15 starts last season. But even more than Stammen, he may have already shown the best he's got. Martin also is already 27 years old, and his prospect status has just about run out. It wouldn't be impossible for him to sneak his way into the mix, but it would probably require several other developments out of his control to make it happen. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 20 percent. 8. J.D. MARTIN -- 球队高层很喜欢 Martin 简单的投球方式(投给他打)，如同上个 球季15场先发展现出来样子。可 Martin 不是 Stammen，他已经年满27岁，不再是个 潜力新秀，实力很难有所突破。除非天公疼憨人，让 Martin 更上一层楼，不然注定 只有陪榜的份。 名列开幕战名单机率：20% 9. MIGUEL BATISTA -- A couple of weeks ago, I would have guessed he'd crack the Opening Day roster as the No. 4 starter. But then the Nats signed Wang and (more importantly) Hernandez, and all of a sudden Batista is an afterthought in camp. He'll get a chance to start Friday against the Braves, but it's probably going to take a head-turning performance in that outing to keep himself in the running. You've got to think Livo will take his spot in the rotation the next time around. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 15 percent. 9. MIGUEL BATISTA -- 在两周之前，我还可能预测 Batista 成为开季第4号先发。 但在国民队与王建民(主要原因)及 Hernandez签约後，这似乎变得遥远而不可及。 星期五 Batista 将领衔对上勇士队，这纯粹是让各个竞争者轮流上场表演。没意外， Livo 会取得下一轮的先发。 名列开幕战名单机率：15% 10. COLLIN BALESTER -- He's an incredibly visible presence around camp, what with his god-awful moustache and quirky Twitter updates. But he doesn't seem to get much attention for anything having to do with baseball. Sounds like he's headed back to Syracuse again. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 10 percent. 10. COLLIN BALESTER -- 名列开幕战名单机率：10% 11. SHAIRON MARTIS -- Remember when this guy was 5-0 and the hottest sensation in the Nationals' rotation? Yeah, that was only 10 months ago. How quickly we forget. Martis is pretty much a non-factor in this camp, notably only for the excess weight he appears to have put on since we last saw him. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 5 percent. 11. SHAIRON MARTIS --还记得吗? 去年是谁开季投出5胜0败，超杀的成绩。这不过是 短短10个月以前的事，而我们却都忘光了。Martis 现在变得像看不见的灵魂般，唯一 令人观注就是他球季後胖了几十磅的体重。 名列开幕战名单机率：5% OTHERS -- Stephen Strasburg will absolutely be part of the Nats' 2010 rotation, but in June, not April. ... Chien-Ming Wang could be a major addition if he returns strong from his shoulder rehab program, perhaps sometime in May. ... Ross Detwiler figured to have a great shot at cracking the starting five before camp opened, but hip surgery will sideline him until May or June, and there may not be an open spot for him by then. ... Shawn Estes is a nice guy. A really nice guy who won't be pitching in Washington. --

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