来源网址: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8389 Prospectus Today A Holiday Surprise by Joe Sheehan It's not a classic, or even a movie I would describe as one of my favorites, but if I stumble upon Quiz Show while I'm flipping channels, I usually stay there for a while. The movie features a great story, some fantastic performances by the members of an ensemble cast—I'm partial to Rob Morrow as the self-made investigator dealing with issues of class and education in his interactions with the Van Doren family; and Paul Scofield as Mark Van Doren, the elite, even effete, academic father of the dashing protagonist—and some tremendous dialogue, particularly between Scofield and Ralph Fiennes as father and son. The movie, a docudrama about the 1950s scandal in which the game show Twenty-One, among others, was found to be rigged, with the producers supplying answers to contestants in advance and deciding which ones would win and for how many shows, holds up well over multiple viewings. 上半段算是引言吧，应该是讲他内心的感慨XD There's a scene in the film in which a contestant who has been told to give a wrong answer instead supplies the correct one, foiling the plot while on live television. Host Jack Barry, played convincingly by Christopher McDonald, is all set to turn to the opponent to get the correct response when he catches himself, pauses, turns, and goes back to the first contestant, asking in disbelief if he heard correctly. You can see the wheels turning..."You weren't supposed to say that, sir. Now what do I do?" 这段和前一段一样，算是要切入主题前的引言。 和上一段相同，要我翻译我也翻不出来XD 怕硬翻结果失真了...... That was me at 3 p.m. yesterday. After expecting the wrong answer for months, I was astounded to learn that the Yankees had signed the best free agent on the market, a player who fills a need for them and who upgrades their team on both sides of the ball. The signing of A.J. Burnett seemed to close off the possibility of adding Mark Teixeira, given that it was their second major commitment to a pitcher in the previous two weeks. With $40 million per year worth of starting pitchers in hand, a $20 million-or-more per season first baseman didn't seem within reach. By inking Mark Teixeira to an eight-year deal worth $180 million, the Yankees cemented their position as the game's evil empire to the other 29 fan bases, and reaffirmed their commitment to their own. They made a decision that might eventually cause even more targeted rule changes, but one that is clearly the right one for their franchise. 那是昨天下午三点。在已经预期了好几个月的错误的答案之後，我非常意外的 听到了洋基签下了今年市场上最大尾的自由球员， 而他完全符合洋基的需求，可同时在两方面为队伍带来升级。 (on both sides of the ball:这句话不知道该怎麽翻) 签下了AJ看起来使得签下Teixeira的可能性缩小不少，因为这已经是过去两个礼拜来 球队花在投手身上的第二份约了。 在已经耗费了一年四千万美元的代价在寻找新的投手的情况下， 追求一位必须花上20M/y的一垒手看起来是相当不合逻辑的。 但最後他们还是签下了铁爷，这让洋基成了以其它二十九支球队的棒球迷为基石 而建立的邪恶帝国....(有那麽邪恶吗?) ---------------------------------------------------------- 好多，剩下的简短带过好了 This is the Yankees at their best: signing the top free agents on the market. They're leveraging not only the greater marginal revenue that can be generated by each win in New York City, but also their massive cash flow in an industry in which many, even most, teams are hoarding cash in an unsure economy. Other fans and other owners may complain, but the money is coming in; it can go into the team's pockets, or it can be used to improve the baseball team. If the scale doesn't work, change the scale—fix the revenue-sharing formulas to factor in market size and potential revenues, as Keith Woolner suggested forever ago—but don't blame a team for trying to win. Ever. For all of the focus on the $420-odd million the Yankees have committed to three players, their 2009 payroll won't be much more than the 2008 one, due to the absence of so many eight-figure salaries: Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, and Carl Pavano all combined to make nearly $80 million last year. 大意是在讲洋基的财务上并没有爆表，因为今年确实清出不少薪资空间。 Teixeira is at his peak, one he's expected to maintain for a few more seasons. Check out his PECOTA card, generated prior to the 2008 season, and both the stable performance expected in 2009-11 and the tiny rate of decline. Teixeira's fantastic 2008 season did nothing to lower expectations. He is as safe a bet as exists on the market, and when you also consider the defensive upgrade—Teixiera is generally a +10 to +15 defender, and he's replacing the brutal Jason Giambi—few teams had as much to gain from signing Teixeira as the Yankees did. Teixeira may lose a few points of batting average in the move to the AL East, but everything else will be the same. He's an inordinately safe investment for a free agent, which is a contrast to the contracts of Sabathia and Burnett. 铁爷正在他的巅峰状态，而这样的状态也被预期会维持好几个球季。 预期的退化速度会相当的慢，至少在前面三个球季之中。 铁爷在来到美东之後打击的表现也许会稍微下降，但其它地方都维持一样。 This was simply a great baseball decision, and a great business one. The Yankees' focus on signing starting pitchers will do little more than maintain the status quo. Sabathia and Burnett replace Mussina and Pettitte, who combined to throw 404 innings of 3.90 ERA baseball last season. With Sabathia moving to a much tougher competitive environment and Burnett not pitching for a new contract, it's far from a lock that the two will combine to improve upon those rotation slots. The Yankees are paying just shy of $40 million next year just to maintain the run prevention they got at the front of the rotation a year ago. For the Yankee pitching to improve, the young starters— Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy should someone get hurt— will have to stay in the rotation and perform to expectations. 大意是在讲CC和AJ的组合在短期内未必会比Moose+派派来的好， (补充一下，23+16.5 vs 13+16，所以洋基花了多10.5M的钱来换取升级， 当然，这绝对不是再讲补进那两位是错误的，只是说未必会立刻感受到明显差异) 先发轮值中依然有着隐忧，AJ对於更具竞争的环境适应力如何， 年轻的三小将也有可能会受伤，也未必能如同预期般的表现良好。 It's easy to say that these moves make the Yankees the favorite in the AL East, but it's not clear that's the case. The Red Sox have certainly had a quiet winter, but they also had many fewer holes to fill. From the primary contributors on the team that fell six innings shy of the World Series, the only guys they're losing are Coco Crisp and Jason Varitek; in both instances, the players are replaceable, and can even be improved upon. The Yankees have been active by necessity; the Red Sox have been quiet by choice. The Yankees appear to be basically even with the Red Sox now; the Sox' edge is in their defense, while the Yankees' lies in the likelihood that they'll score more runs. Both are ahead of the Rays, who are likely to regress a bit in '09 before being scary good in the years that follow. 洋基的作为确实将他们往美东最好的球队推进了，但他们未必是最好的， 红袜在这段期间显得相当的安静，但他们要填的洞也比较少。 简单的说，洋基的作为是因为被需求给压迫的，而红袜则是主动选择较为安静。 简而言之，依照现在的情况看来，洋基应该勉强可以跟红袜打平了， 红袜的强项在於防守，而洋基则着重於打进更多的分数。 他们分别在防守和进攻上强过了光芒队，光芒队在09年时也许会出现巨大的退步 (说实在的，我觉得不会...) If this winter signals that the Yankees are going to narrow their focus to the very best talent available and use their deep pockets to bring them into the fold, that's a very good thing for Yankee fans who spent too many years with Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright instead of Carlos Beltran. What it means for the industry is less clear, although the most shrill voices are almost certainly out of key. 这段的前半段，洋基已经为了当年追求痛痛还有莱特而非Carlos Beltran付出惨痛代价， 所以说现在最好的就是不断的努力抓进更多有天份的选手， 利用洋基球团那深不可测的口袋.......... 最後一句话不会翻XD Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Joe by clicking here or click here to see Joe's other articles. 翻译的很烂，请鞭小力一点 --

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