作者leddy (耿秋)
看板NY-Yankees
标题[blog] James: Yanks lacking in young talent
时间Thu Oct 23 16:55:36 2008
source: riveraveblues.com
James: Yanks lacking in young talent
Posted by: Ben K. in Analysis
In advance of the release of The Bill James Handbook 2009, the venerable
baseball analysts has released his list of the top young talent in baseball.
James has also put forward a ranking of the Major League clubs by top young
Major League talent, and the Yankees aren’t looking so hot with the team
ranked 29 out of 30.
According to ACTA Sports, publishers of the Handbook, these rankings include
players 30 and younger:
"To achieve his inventory, James first eliminates from the list all players
who were 30 years old or older in 2008. He employs two widely used statistics
—'Runs Created' for position players and 'Runs Allowed' for pitchers—as
the basis for comparison. He makes several adjustments, including for
injuries suffered during the year and the differences in predictability
between pitchers and position players, and then takes into account the number
of years the player should be at his peak performance."
Of course, it doesn’t take a baseball genius to recognize the Yankees’
young-gun problems. Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano turned in disappointing
2008 campaigns; Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy didn’t meet the lofty
expectations placed upon them; and even Joba Chamberlain suffered a lengthy
stay on the disabled list.
As the Yankees head into free agency, this list should be a part of their
considerations. Five of the top 15 and three of the top ten youngest teams
made the playoffs this year, and if the Yanks don’t get marked older, they’
ll suffer through some pretty bad seasons over the next few years.
The full franchise rankings and James’ top 25 young players are after the
jump.
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Florida Marlins
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Milwaukee Brewers
7. Cleveland Indians
8. Colorado Rockies
9. Atlanta Braves
10. Boston Red Sox
11. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
12. Oakland A’s
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Cincinnati Reds
16. New York Mets
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Seattle Mariners
19. Texas Rangers
20. Philadelphia Phillies
21. San Diego Padres
22. San Francisco Giants
23. Washington Nationals
24. Baltimore Orioles
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Chicago Cubs
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Toronto Blue Jays
29. New York Yankees
30. Houston Astros
1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24
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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.130.155.141
※ 编辑: leddy 来自: 140.130.155.141 (10/23 17:04)
1F:推 pikachu123:没想到我们只赢太色人农场沙漠...农场都没什麽人了= = 10/23 17:13
2F:推 meier0112:这跟农场关系不大,纽约老人队!!! 10/23 17:15
3F:推 FENOR:看起来真的很冏。之前不是有说投手的部分还不差吗? 10/23 17:17
4F:→ leddy:这又不是看农场,是看25人名单中under 30的天份 10/23 17:18
5F:推 FENOR:喔。是这样喔... 10/23 17:19
6F:推 pikachu123:美东有3之球队都在20名以後大家都爱老人吗= = 10/23 17:19
7F:推 hsiang23:Hank:老子有钱 等你练好我再签你 我没时间等你!! 10/23 17:42
8F:推 richertkk:哀,之前还再说没有三十三,没敢去旧金山,现在........ 10/23 19:11
9F:推 raygod:几年前农场乾枯的後果吧 10/23 20:10
10F:推 lovemost:甚麽鸟评价~连Pujous都没有... 10/23 20:18
11F:推 appshjkli:Pujols 28岁了,而且你连名字都打错- - 10/23 20:19
12F:→ appshjkli:仔细看就会知道这个人说的是30以下其实不怎麽排 10/23 20:20
13F:→ appshjkli:改成25以下比较不会有争议 10/23 20:21
14F:推 NPLNT:可是套用他的公式 还是有机会出现25岁以上的人在榜上阿 10/23 20:53
15F:→ NPLNT:像K-Rod跟A-Gon不就是吗 10/23 20:55
16F:推 maxspeed150:K-Rod和A-Gon都也才超过25一点 10/23 20:57
17F:→ maxspeed150:以33岁来分的话 Pujols的分数只能*5 他们可以*7 10/23 20:58
18F:推 appshjkli:嗯,也是 10/23 20:58
19F:推 NPLNT:不过万一有人乘*1还能上榜(虽说不可能) 加年龄限制不就囧了 10/23 21:01
20F:推 maxspeed150:*1的话那他已经32了 我们通常不会叫32的人年轻球员 10/23 21:03
21F:推 NPLNT:是没错...可是排名不是按照公式排的吗 10/23 21:04
22F:推 maxspeed150:其实你一开始假设*1就不成立了 因为只排30岁以下 10/23 21:05
23F:→ maxspeed150:这个模型是在看一个球员的"未来发展性" 29岁的人可能 10/23 21:06
24F:→ maxspeed150:有超人的累积成绩 但是他已经29 A/E期也老早过了 10/23 21:07
25F:→ maxspeed150:如果今天是比"最强的30岁以下球员"那又是另回事 10/23 21:08
26F:推 siliver:Pujols*5都不能上榜了,去谈那个*1的做啥啊....... 10/23 21:08
27F:推 cardfat:去年Melky:Grade A Ethier:B 排名参考一下就好了 10/23 21:14
28F:推 Benitez:Cabrera会输Adrian Gonzalez吗? 该不会连体重问题都计算了 10/23 21:34
29F:→ leddy:30岁以上就事先拿掉了..不会有*1的问题 10/23 23:20
30F:→ leddy:去年RC Melky:73, Ethier:70, Melky又比Ethier小一岁 10/23 23:38
31F:→ leddy:你要用今年的成绩质疑James算得有问题吗? 10/23 23:40
32F:→ leddy:用明朝的剑斩清朝的官....你分明是反清复明... 10/23 23:41
33F:推 heacoun:XD 10/23 23:45
34F:→ leddy:更正应该是小两岁 10/23 23:46
35F:推 albertjet:Kemp的排名有点高,Longoria有点低。Gonzalez不管怎麽看 10/24 00:25
36F:→ albertjet:都赢不了Cabrera耶,何况照上面说的算法卡布是*8 冈萨*7 10/24 00:26
37F:推 albertjet:B.J. Upton没进榜也满怪的 年龄和去年成绩看起来他应进 10/24 00:29
38F:→ leddy:Upton去年RC95排名第27, 今年RC剩88你觉得该排第几.. 10/24 00:35
39F:→ albertjet:Kemp今年也不比Upton高多少阿,95/89,Upton还年轻一岁 10/24 00:39
40F:→ albertjet:然後一个第七;一个没进。不会差太多吗? 10/24 00:40
41F:→ albertjet:看错= = 年纪一样 10/24 00:40
42F:推 siliver:详细公式去MLB板看.人家还有参考速度和母队的得分能力. 10/24 00:41
43F:推 cardfat:所以就说参考一下就好了 不看选手的天份直接拿表现来用=.= 10/24 12:54