http://0rz.tw/524DL In the previous thread, PhilRizzuto raised a question about how bad the Yankees have been hitting this year with runners in scoring position. I think anyone who's watched this team all season knows they've been bad even without looking at the numbers, but since I'm a stat dork, let's look at some stats. First off, let's take a look at the 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout. According to the aggregate of six different projection systems, the Yankees projected to score 924 runs this year. Losing Alex Rodriguez for a month and losing Jorge Posada obviously put a damper on that. In addition, the run environment in the AL is down this year. Last year, AL teams averaged 4.93 runs per game and hit for a line of .271/.338/.423. This year they are averaging 4.71 runs per game and are hitting .266/.334/.416. So that's around a 4% reduction in run scoring. The standard deviation on the AL runs scored using last year's total of 11185 is 106 runs, so one standard deviation in either direction gives us 4.88 runs per game to 4.98 runs per game. Two standard deviations gives us 4.84 runs to 5.02 runs per game. So the lower AL scoring this season appears to be statistically significant. Rank Team RF/G 1 Texas 5.61 2 Detroit 5.09 3 Chicago Sox 5.01 4 Boston 5.00 5 Minnesota 4.97 6 Baltimore 4.92 7 NY Yankees 4.82 8 LA Angels 4.73 9 Cleveland 4.66 10 Tampa Bay 4.61 11 Toronto 4.24 12 Kansas City 4.20 13 Seattle 4.12 14 Oakland 4.02 Still, the Yankees are 7th in the league in actual runs scored. But what about the park factors you ask? Using a weighted average of 2006-2008, here's how the rankings would look (park factors from The 4 letter.com). Rank Team PkAdj RF/G 1 Texas 5.39 2 Minnesota 5.30 3 Detroit 4.91 4 Tampa Bay 4.81 5 Chicago Sox 4.81 6 Boston 4.75 7 Baltimore 4.73 8 NY Yankees 4.66 9 LA Angels 4.61 10 Cleveland 4.60 11 Toronto 4.33 12 Seattle 4.26 13 Oakland 4.23 14 Kansas City 4.14 Either way, the Yankee offense has been mediocre this year, despite projecting to be one of the better ones in the league. They are on pace to score 781 runs, That's a falloff of almost 200 runs from last season. According to linear weights, the context-independent batting events that the Yankee offense has accrued this year should total 586 runs. Using runs created instead of linear weights says they should have scored 598. So why have they only scored 568? First of all, the Yankees have hit into what seems like a million double plays. The actual number is 109, which is the fourth highest total in the league. Adding those DPs into linear weights knocks the runs scored estimate down by 11 runs. But getting back to the clutch thing, The Hardball Times tracks a stat called 'clutch' coincidentally enough. Now the whole concept of clutch is murky and hard to define, so this is just one of probably a million different ways to measure it. Anyway, the definition of clutch they are using is based of the 2002 version of Bill James's runs created and is defined as: Hits(with runners in scoring position) - (AB with RISP times BA) + HR(with runners on base) - (AB(with runners on base) times HR)/AB). or 请见连结里面的公式 Clutch is expressed in terms of runs above and below average. Here's how the Yankees rate. Tm Clutch MIN 37 LAA 35 BAL 27 OAK 22 KC 20 CHA 14 CLE 14 TEX 12 DET -9 TOR -11 SEA -11 BOS -15 TB -18 NYA -26 美东三强基本功是美联最差。XD I know it's hard to believe, but yes, the Yankees are the unclutchest (is that a word?) team in the AL this year. Here are the individuals and their clutch rankings. Last, First Tm Lg Pos Clutch Damon, Johnny NYA AL LF 7 Abreu, Bobby NYA AL RF 4.5 Gardner, Brett NYA AL LF 3.6 他的 OPS+ 只有 8。红袜？科科 Christian, Justin NYA AL LF 1.8 Matsui, Hideki NYA AL DH 0.8 Sexson, Richie NYA AL 1B 0.5 Moeller, Chad NYA AL C 0.4 Jeter, Derek NYA AL SS 0.1 Stewart, Chris D NYA AL C 0 Duncan, Shelley NYA AL 1B -0.3 Posada, Jorge NYA AL C -1.2 Gonzalez, Alberto R NYA AL SS -1.3 Ensberg, Morgan NYA AL 3B -1.6 Cano, Robinson NYA AL 2B -1.7 Nady, Xavier NYA AL LF -2.1 Molina, Jose NYA AL C -3.5 Betemit, Wilson NYA AL 1B -3.9 Rodriguez, Ivan NYA AL C -5.3 Cabrera, Melky NYA AL CF -5.5 我不是最差的。 Giambi, Jason NYA AL 1B -10.3 Rodriguez, Alex NYA AL 3B -13.2 Now I'm not really going to get into the whole clutch hitting as a skill thing here. Well, maybe just for a second. This is not a measure of a player's clutch skill/ability, it's a measure of their value in the current season. Last year, Alex Rodriguez's clutch rating was +9.8. Did Madonna make him unclutch? In 2006 it was +3.2, in 2005 it -8.8. 这里令我想到 Derek Jeter 与 Mariah Carey。千错万错都是女人的错？ It's definitely a problem when your two best offensive players aren't hitting with runners in scoring position though. And how the hell is Pudge -5.3 already? He's only played in like 5 games. If we add those clutch values to the players' position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level here's how the players rank. Last, First Tm Lg Pos PA BA OBP SLG pBRAR Clutch Total Damon, Johnny NYA AL LF 443 .322 .392 .459 26.9 7 33.9 Rodriguez, Alex NYA AL 3B 420 .315 .402 .599 45.4 -13.2 32.2 Abreu, Bobby NYA AL RF 500 .287 .358 .467 19.2 4.5 23.7 Giambi, Jason NYA AL 1B 397 .252 .393 .517 29.5 -10.3 19.2 Jeter, Derek NYA AL SS 499 .283 .346 .398 18.9 0.1 19.0 Matsui, Hideki NYA AL DH 285 .323 .404 .458 14.5 0.8 15.3 Posada, Jorge NYA AL C 195 .268 .364 .411 8.6 -1.2 7.4 Nady, Xavier NYA AL LF 58 .365 .431 .731 8.0 -2.1 5.9 Christian, Justin NYA AL LF 39 .278 .333 .361 1.0 1.8 2.8 Sexson, Richie NYA AL 1B 30 .292 .400 .458 1.7 0.5 2.2 Moeller, Chad NYA AL C 84 .227 .310 .333 0.4 0.4 0.8 Stewart, Chris D NYA AL C 3 .000 .000 .000 -0.7 0 -0.7 Gardner, Brett NYA AL LF 68 .153 .227 .169 -4.8 3.6 -1.2 Duncan, Shelley NYA AL 1B 65 .175 .262 .281 -2.9 -0.3 -3.2 Cano, Robinson NYA AL 2B 461 .263 .300 .397 -3.1 -1.7 -4.8 Rodriguez, Ivan NYA AL C 19 .278 .316 .444 0.2 -5.3 -5.1 Gonzalez, Alberto R NYA AL SS 58 .173 .232 .212 -3.9 -1.3 -5.2 Betemit, Wilson NYA AL 1B 153 .253 .276 .411 -2.2 -3.9 -6.1 Ensberg, Morgan NYA AL 3B 80 .203 .263 .243 -5.1 -1.6 -6.7 Molina, Jose NYA AL C 237 .230 .278 .315 -4.1 -3.5 -7.6 Cabrera, Melky NYA AL CF 435 .245 .299 .341 -7.9 -5.5 -13.4 这一次 Melky Cabrera 找不到敌手了。Orz Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi's clutch performances hurt their value, but they still have been valuable this year, just not as valuable as the raw numbers may show. Johnny Popup isn't a bad player, but if he's your most valuable offensive performer you probably have issues. And boy, does Melky stink. Melky 加油，好吗？ Do I think clutch hitters exist? Not really, but I do think unclutch hitters can exist, and I do think pressure can have some impact, although it's my opinion that it's not nearly as big of a deal as it's made out to be by the mass media. Also, this is just one definition of clutch, a different definiton may show something totally different, so keep that in mind. So yeah, the 2008 Yankees have been unclutch by this measure. I'm guessing you didn't need a blog entry to know that though. --

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