作者gaga19900329 (TheStoryGoes)
看板NY-Yankees
标题[新闻] Instant trade analysis: The Yankees get Pudge Rodriguez
时间Thu Jul 31 20:24:34 2008
原文出自:
http://tinyurl.com/5v39y9
Instant trade analysis: The Yankees get Pudge Rodriguez for Kyle Farnsworth
Wow, do I not like this trade.
哇,我真的不喜欢这个交易。
I'm not even sure where to begin, so I'll just enumerate my points, as they
come to my head:
我甚至不确定要从哪里开始,所以有东西浮现在我脑海时,我就把他们举出来。
1. I understood and supported the idea of shifting Joba Chamberlain from
setup man to starting pitcher. Because, obviously, Chamberlain was still
going to be on the team, in a more important role.
1.我了解也支持将Chamberlain从setup man调到SP的决定。因为,很明显地,
Chamberlain将在队上扮演更重要的角色。
But to replace Chamberlain, they had managed to take Farnsworth _ who had
been a complete waste of space for two years _ and turn him into a dominant
setup man. Dominant, with that upper-90s fastball and slider. The credit went
to Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland. The blame went to Joe Torre and Ron Guidry
for what transpired the prior two seasons.
但是为了取代Chamberlain,他们必须容忍Farnsworth,一个曾经占据名单达2年
而且无用的人,并且使他成为一个具有主宰力的setup man,以他超过90哩的速球和滑球。
荣耀被归功到了Joe Girard和Dave Eiland。Joe Torre和Ron Guidry则因前2季发生的事
情而被怪罪。
So now they're going to have to rebuild that eighth-inning bridge again, and
as good as Girardi and Eiland have proven themselves to be in this area,
they'll have no one with the sort of tools that Farnsworth possessed.
所以现在他们得重新搭建一座第8局的桥梁,而且要跟Girardi和Eiland他们在这个领域
已经显示过的一样好,但牛棚里没有一个人有着Farnsworth所拥有的能力。
2. Pudge. Maybe he can keep up his recent hot streak (42-for-110 with three
doubles and four homers, according to the Yankees' press release on this
trade). But the prior three years _ including last year, which was a virtual
walk year, since the Tigers had a team option on him _ he has been a
below-average offensive player. Look at his walk totals since 2005. Brutal.
2.Pudge.或许他能保持着他最近火热的打击(110打数42安打,包括3支二垒安打和4只全
垒打)。但是前三年,包括去年,几乎没有保送的一年,从Tigers决定动用球队选择权
後,他就成了一名在平均之下的打者。看看他从2005年以来的保送数。令人感到残酷,
但不得不承认这个事实。
Now, is he an offensive upgrade over Jose Molina? Of course. And defensively,
he still nails an impressive share of baserunners (18 of 50, as you can see
on his baseball-reference.com page). But was he worth giving up Farnsworth? I
don't think so.
现在,他是Molina的攻击升级版吗?当然。还有在防守方面,他依旧有着令人印象深刻的
阻杀能力(50次盗垒抓到了18次)。但是值得因为他抛弃Farnsworth吗?我不这样认为。
3. The Dave Dombrowski factor. Here are the three major trades that Cashman
has made with Dombrowski, prior to today:
3.Dave Dombrowski这个因素。下面是三次Cashman在今天前和他做的三笔大交易:
1) February 1, 1999. Mike Lowell to the Marlins for Mark Johnson, Todd Noel
and Ed Yarnall.
1999/2/1 Mike Lowell <=> Mark Johnson , Todd Noel 和 Ed Yarnall
2) July 5, 2002. Jason Arnold, John-Ford Griffin and Ted Lilly to Oakland;
received Jeff Weaver from Detroit, as part of a three-way deal.
2002/75 Jason Arnold , John-Ford Griffin 和 Ted Lilly <=> Jeff Weaver
3) November 10, 2006: Gary Sheffield to Detroit for Anthony Claggett,
Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Whelan.
2006/11/10 Gary Sheffield <=> Anthony Claggett Humberto Sanchez 和
Kevin Whelan
The first two were horrendous _ and those were Cashman's deals. They weren't
pushed ahead by George Steinbrenner, or Tampa people, or anyone else. The
last one, well, the Yankees benefited by disposing of Sheff. And the Tigers
are worse for having him. So far, the trio of young pitchers the Yankees
received hasn't panned out, although, to be fair Sanchez needs another year
to be at full strength after his 2007 Tommy John surgery.
前面2个令人畏惧,而这就是Cashman所做的交易。他们不会被大老板Steinbrenner、
Tampa的人们以致任何人所赞同。最後一项,洋基从挥弃Sheff中获得了好处,Tigers
也因为有了他而变差。但截至目前为止,洋基所得到的2名年轻投手都尚未投出成绩,
虽然Sanchez在2007年接受Tommy John手术後,仍需要一年的时间复健。
So this is a case of buyer beware. Dombrowski and Jim Leyland are as sharp a
GM-manager duo as there is in the major leagues. What does it tell you about
Pudge that the Tigers were willing to trade him, despite his respectable
statistics?
所以这就是一个买家需要注意的地方。Dombrowski和Jim Leyland就像任何一个大联盟里
精明的GM一样。尽管Pudge有着可观的数据,但什麽原因会让Tigers愿意交易他?
4. Oh, and forget about offering Pudge arbitration and getting draft picks
out of it. He's making $13 million this year. If the Yankees offered him
arbitration, he'd get a raise from that, whereas he'll absolutely have to
take a pay cut when he goes into the open market. So he would accept the
arbitration, without question.
4.噢,还有忘记提供Pudge仲裁和得到补偿选秀权的事吧!如果洋基提供他
仲裁,他将会得到比今年1300万美金还高的薪资,然而当他进入市场时,他绝
对需要降价的。所以无疑地,他会接受仲裁。
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.136.49.50
※ 编辑: gaga19900329 来自: 220.136.49.50 (07/31 20:28)
1F:推 ZMTL:中肯,这笔交易我们根本没大赚(虽然听到的一瞬间惊讶了一下) 07/31 20:27
2F:推 LyonLeu:再怎麽说有I-Rod跟Molina两个捕手让人很放心 07/31 20:30
3F:→ gaga19900329:我觉得算是双赢啦 我们可能有亏一点点 07/31 20:32
4F:→ gaga19900329:但算是可以接受的范围 07/31 20:33
5F:推 birdy590:完全不考虑季後可能的结果, 怎麽可能得到正确的评断? 07/31 20:33
6F:→ birdy590:另外一个现在还是 Type A 热门人选的捕手是水准之下? 07/31 20:33
7F:推 raxxar82:火哥换I-Rod怎麽会有亏到 光靠Molina接下来的比赛怎麽打 07/31 20:34
8F:→ birdy590:那排在他後面的捕手是不入流是吧 07/31 20:34
9F:推 jayin07:Molina的VORP是负的耶,我们怎麽可能会亏......? 07/31 20:35
10F:推 ph49:至少补起来现在的洞...维持竞争力 现在有很大机会进季後 07/31 20:35
11F:推 PlusP:不认为这个交易不好,特别在洋基现在主战捕手这季要缺阵的 07/31 20:36
12F:→ jayin07:说换到pudge会亏 会不会太夸张... 07/31 20:36
13F:→ PlusP:情况下,只剩下molina相较比较让人放心的捕手 07/31 20:37
14F:→ gaga19900329:不是说换到Pudge亏 是说我们拿火哥换值得吗? 07/31 20:37
15F:推 birdy590:当然值得, 火哥的位子很容易补上, 加上 I-rod 价值较高 07/31 20:38
16F:→ birdy590:双方战力又都有补强, 严格来讲应该没有人亏 07/31 20:39
17F:推 promessa:什麽都不放是得不到东西的。重点是现在最直接的隐忧就是 07/31 20:39
18F:→ PlusP:如过真有十月赛事,我相信大多数球迷应该不想看到Moeller上场 07/31 20:39
19F:→ promessa:捕手。其他都不用多说了。 07/31 20:39
20F:→ PlusP:承担这重责大任,现阶段即战力捕手来说 07/31 20:40
21F:推 leddy:最後一段是薪资仲裁 07/31 20:41
22F:→ PlusP:能用洋基相对够力的牛棚来换到I-Rod,其实对之後的比赛 07/31 20:41
23F:推 Makubex82:火哥来洋基两年ERA4.36 4.80 今年这季前两个月4.05 4.50 07/31 20:41
24F:→ PlusP:我认为是必要的 07/31 20:41
25F:→ Makubex82:不能否认他六七月投得不错 所以才能换到I-Rod啊 07/31 20:42
26F:推 roea68roea68:感觉不错了啦 总不能哈金斯之类的换 有得必有失 07/31 20:42
27F:推 g11225588:这就是蚬仔人 先放话说NYY前半季战绩不佳是归咎打线 07/31 20:43
28F:→ gaga19900329:其实原作者说的打击威力下滑 主要是指保送数 07/31 20:44
29F:推 fifth:I-rod老了 并且未必拿得到补偿选秀 因为可能不会提供仲裁.. 07/31 20:44
30F:→ gaga19900329:最近4年 11 26 9 19 07/31 20:44
31F:→ fifth:持平而论 这交易是各取所需 还不到赚很多的地步啦.. 07/31 20:45
32F:推 birdy590:而且仲裁结果会是加薪? 我认为以洋基的现状是可以给的 07/31 20:45
33F:→ gaga19900329:还有上垒率0.290 0.332 0.294 0.338 07/31 20:45
※ 编辑: gaga19900329 来自: 220.136.49.50 (07/31 20:46)
34F:→ birdy590:他不接受就拿 draft pick, 接受也可以让 Posada 多休息 07/31 20:46
35F:→ fifth:可以给 但是C/P值不高 (如果给了 那Posada确定要转一垒?) 07/31 20:47
36F:→ gaga19900329:长打率的话0.444 0.437 0.420 0.417也是逐年下降 07/31 20:47
37F:推 birdy590:有多少人确定 Posada 明年可以以主战捕手蹲满整季? 07/31 20:48
※ 编辑: gaga19900329 来自: 220.136.49.50 (07/31 20:48)
38F:推 siliver:怎麽下降也是比Molina好,还是有人认为他来到洋基会比 07/31 20:50
39F:→ siliver:Molina惨??老方表现是不错,但牛棚农场有的补,捕手却没. 07/31 20:50
40F:推 meier0112:明年要i-rod留下来也是重谈合约,而不是给仲裁 07/31 20:51
41F:推 birdy590:最後一段是个大问题, 他在市场上想拿个两三年合约并不难 07/31 20:51
42F:推 jayin07:老话一句,就算pudge打击衰退很多,他还是比Molina好 07/31 20:51
43F:→ birdy590:对一个老球员来说, 两三年的合约会比一年仲裁好 07/31 20:51
44F:→ jayin07:还是你认为VORP数字越小贡献越多呢,何况这两人防守差不多 07/31 20:51
45F:推 spree8:会亏也是长远来讲,至少这个球季可以好好把握I-Rod 07/31 20:52
46F:→ birdy590:重谈合约就免了, 你想继续用他两三年吗 07/31 20:52
47F:→ jayin07:offseason跟Posada的复原期重叠在一起 07/31 20:52
48F:→ gaga19900329:我也只是述说原作认为I-Rod是平均以下打者的原因 07/31 20:53
49F:推 meier0112:重谈签一年合约 ,两三年洋基不会签的 07/31 20:53
50F:→ jayin07:Posada搞不好还赶不上春训,有人认为光冬天就可以评估 07/31 20:53
51F:→ birdy590:如上所述, 他是平均以下打者, 其它捕手都是不入流打者 07/31 20:53
52F:→ gaga19900329:并没有说Molina比I-Rod好阿 07/31 20:53
53F:→ meier0112:作者基本上表达仲裁是不可能发生的.. 07/31 20:54
54F:→ birdy590:一年约可能会变成 I-rod 不愿意签, 那为什麽不用仲裁? 07/31 20:54
55F:→ sxxs: 无用的人 XD 07/31 20:54
56F:→ jayin07:Posada在明年就可以传球了吗?~_~ 07/31 20:54
57F:→ birdy590:但是这个评估本身就很奇怪, 谁说仲裁一定是加薪的 07/31 20:54
58F:推 promessa:我是觉得这篇的论点一开始就站不住脚,後面也是 07/31 20:54
59F:→ gaga19900329:至於仲裁这点我就不知道了 07/31 20:55
60F:推 richard1003:Marte当Setup也不会差到哪去吧 07/31 20:55
61F:→ gaga19900329:因为我也认为拿不到比13M还高的薪资 07/31 20:55
62F:→ richard1003:但是继续把Molina放在先发打线伤害更大 07/31 20:55
63F:→ birdy590:对球员来说仲裁的缺点就是只有一年, 他应该会想要长一点 07/31 20:56
64F:推 meier0112:有没有仲裁减薪的例子阿?? 07/31 20:59
65F:推 weinine32:中肯文,洋基似乎对自已的牛棚很有信心? 07/31 20:59
66F:推 PlusP:牛棚比起捕手对洋基而言相对好补的多 07/31 21:05
67F:推 CGary:其实主要是花了那麽多时间搞出了第八局不抖的阵线 为了这样 07/31 21:19
68F:→ CGary:的升级 把自己後段比赛打乱 并不是完全划算的 07/31 21:19
69F:→ CGary:Pudge好不好倒是其次 主要这是个挖东墙补西墙的交易 07/31 21:20
70F:→ CGary:不过不管怎样 这不会是NYY长久的答案, Posada现在已经将近不 07/31 21:21
71F:→ CGary:能蹲了 同样 Pudge 的时光也差不多... 07/31 21:21
72F:推 steo:给他仲裁其实风险性满高的,他很有可能捡 07/31 21:25
73F:推 IBIZA:我不认为I-rod仲裁能拿到13M 07/31 21:36
74F:推 MRCool:换的主要目的不就是这最後两个月 火哥三场比赛了不起投 07/31 21:53
75F:→ MRCool:个两局 IROD三天蹲两天的效用应该是比留着火哥高 07/31 21:53
76F:推 airplanes:应该没人这样相较的吧 I-Rod算还能补上打线的缺口 老方 07/31 21:57
77F:推 airplanes:则还有其它牛可以试验几场看看 07/31 21:59
78F:推 ikj:这交易应该不赔 但绝对称不上"抢劫" 07/31 22:25
79F:推 roger744:牛棚新秀这麽多 有差一个放肆火吗? 07/31 22:31
80F:推 gerkk:重点是我们缺捕手,而且打线有一天没两天,这个洞捕的钢刚好 07/31 22:40
81F:→ gerkk:火哥虽然不错,不过不知道是不是合约年大爆发,逢高卖出很合理 07/31 22:41
82F:推 avcddd:最好放四火一走就成了神级投手 哪有那麽好? 07/31 23:02
83F:推 to1322:老po本季报销剩一个模二补,万一剩下赛事狂操模二 会很惨吧 07/31 23:06
84F:推 Conpana:不换Pudge来,到时候连摸二哥都被操到受伤就麻烦了 07/31 23:37
85F:推 Conpana:吉总根本就不太想用Moeller,放上来只是残害打线残害的更 07/31 23:40
86F:→ Conpana:严重,吉总只能狂操摸二哥而已 07/31 23:41
87F:推 ke0119:吓到是一定会的,不过现在真的缺捕手...只好跟老方掰了 07/31 23:48
88F:→ akainorei:给个MLB乳摸...Adam Dunn可能要去Rays 07/31 23:49
89F:推 Picoro:美东的军备竞赛吗 = =" 08/01 00:03
90F:→ a5896:袜子是把军火卖了= = 08/01 00:07
91F:推 subcrew02:小葛 to WhiteSox !!! 08/01 00:10
92F:推 Picoro:袜子又换了个回来 ... 不算是卖掉吧 ? 08/01 00:14
93F:推 argoth:就...双赢啊 和牛棚比起来 捕手这个洞的确比较大 08/01 01:03