※ 引述《ahuahala (谁可以送点P币借我赌钱XD)》之铭言： : 我以为他这样速度快、臂力强、年轻的选手，守备应该算好的。 : 但是记得早上看到某篇大家在讨论甘乃迪却说到牛奶的守备不好。 : 是为什麽不好？？ : 判断还不够快或是成熟吗？还是比较保守，看似没机会的就不拼了？ : 大概就是这样吧，想请问一下。 : 先谢过了。 　稍稍参考一下吧，有专业板友已经说明小卡布的守备range小或其它问题， 　不过，他倒是蛮强肩的～ by John Walsh January 07, 2008 Center Fielders B.J. Upton had the best center field arm of 2007—what is it with these ex-second basemen? (See Soriano, below.) I haven't seen much of Upton, so I checked a couple of his throws on video and he does seem to have a strong arm. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up the strong performance moving forward. B.J. Upton 有 07 年中外野最强肩的手臂，这些前二垒手是火星人吗？（看 原文有关 Soriano）我还不能看得出太多 Upton 的资讯，所以我看了些他投球影 片而他确实具有强壮的手臂。如果他能在未来保持着坚强表现，看起来将会颇精彩。 Name Opps Kill+ Hold+ Runs Runs/200 Upton_B.J. 108 224 101 4.6 8.5 Taveras_Willy 99 240 102 3.0 6.1 Edmonds_Jim 125 166 111 3.5 5.6 Suzuki_Ichiro 199 143 116 5.2 5.2 Freel_Ryan 81 120 104 2.0 5.0 Cabrera_Melky 185 207 99 4.2 4.5 Amezaga_Alfredo 103 266 86 2.0 3.9 Patterson_Corey 138 132 101 2.6 3.8 Roberts_Dave 100 168 103 1.9 3.7 Rowand_Aaron 204 79 115 3.7 3.6 Jones_Andruw 185 56 126 2.4 2.6 Pence_Hunter 117 141 106 0.9 1.5 Lofton_Kenny 107 97 104 0.8 1.5 Hall_Bill 154 119 105 1.0 1.3 Granderson_Curtis 222 99 100 1.2 1.1 Young_Chris 168 61 104 0.2 0.2 Cameron_Mike 178 114 108 0.1 0.1 Crisp_Coco 148 24 105 -0.1 -0.2 Beltran_Carlos 155 120 90 -0.2 -0.2 Duffy_Chris 87 39 106 -0.7 -1.7 Wells_Vernon 140 97 93 -1.6 -2.3 Sizemore_Grady 193 73 105 -2.6 -2.7 DeJesus_David 182 90 103 -2.7 -3.0 Matthews_Gary 154 95 86 -2.4 -3.1 Hunter_Torii 174 64 97 -3.1 -3.6 McLouth_Nate 92 41 88 -2.7 -5.8 Swisher_Nick 84 0 94 -2.5 -6.1 Owens_Jerry 101 36 90 -3.5 -6.9 Logan_Nook 111 31 89 -4.1 -7.4 Pierre_Juan 184 56 83 -6.9 -7.5 I usually, for purely selfish reasons, hope that Ichiro will take the top ranking in my analysis. In 2005 Suzuki came out about average (in right field) and in 2006 he ranked fifth among right fielders (5.1 Runs/200), but that didn't meet the expectations of his many fans, a goodly number of whom wrote to say that my rankings were, ahem, less than accurate. His 2007 performance, now in center, was almost a carbon copy of 2006. I suppose I should be expecting some email. 　 我通常啦，会纯私心希望一朗能在我的分析图表里拿第 1名。05 年他在右外 野排名平均，拿 06 年拿第 5 名（每 200 次机会守下 5.1 分），但没有满足他 的粉丝们期望，其中有相当多的人写东西来说，我的排名只有「呃！」推文，不 准确。一朗现在做中外野手，在 07 年的表现几乎是影印 06 年数字，我应该要 开始等 email 了... Have a look at Nick Swisher's Kill+ — actually, he doesn't have one. To be fair, Swisher did have one extra assist in his 481 center field innings. The Oakland outfielder also played around 400 innings in right field, where he recorded a grand total of two assists (both extra) and had a Runs/200 of -0.4. I'm not sure how the A's plan to deploy Swisher and Travis Buck in left and right field, but it actually (from the throwing viewpoint) doesn't matter much. Buck was pretty bad, too, in limited action (-9 Runs/200 in 57 opps). [Update: scratch that last thought, Swish is now a White Sox.] 看一下 Nick Swisher 的阻杀率（与假定的平均球员其平均值，相减而所得出数 字，平均值设定为 100），事实上他得到 0 。为表公平，Swisher在他 481 中外野 手局数里得到 1 次额外助杀，这个绿帽也做右外野手约 400 局，那位置他得到鸟 不起的 2 次额外助杀，而且每 200 守备机会得 -0.4 分。我不确定绿帽如何决定 把 Swisher 和 Travis Buck 放在左右外野，但以上仅是单纯从投传的观点，事实 上没那麽重要。Buck 也很鸟，在蛮有限的 57 次机会中，得出 -9 Runs/200。 [更新：划掉关於 Swisher 的上一季看法，他现在到白袜了] Note that you have to interpret Kill+ and Hold+ with some caution. For example, compare Hunter Pence and Corey Patterson in the table above. (Whoa! I just spotted Torii Hunter below Crisp, DeJesus and Matthews. Who'd've thunk it?) Anyway, Pence was better than Patterson in both Hold+ and Kill+, but ranks lower in Runs/200. The first thing you should know is that both of these guys had five kills against 3.6 expected for Pence and 3.8 expected for Patterson. In other words, they were virtually equal in throwing out runners. Furthermore, Patterson's kills (and holds) occurred in slightly more critical situations, in terms of run value, than Hunter's did, hence the slightly higher ranking for Patterson. Lastly, Patterson gained a little in extra assists, while Pence lost a fraction of a run. The lesson here: don't split hairs over rankings that are fairly close. 　　 注意一下你必须仔细点理解阻杀率 Kill+ 和垒包守备率 Hold+，举例，比较 Hunter Pence 和 Corey Patterson 在图表上半部（哇～我注意到 Torii Hunter 排名比 Crisp, DeJesus 和 Matthews 低，谁能料想到？）不论如何，Pence 在 Kill+ 和 Hold+ 都较 Patterson 来得好，但在 Runs/200 项目排名较低。第一 个你必须理解的是，他们两人都刚好有 5 次阻杀，而 Pence 这几次机会期望需 要杀成功的数值是 3.6，而 Patterson 的数字是 3.8。换句话讲，他们俩传往跑 垒者的能力差不多，进一步说，Patterson 的阻杀和 hold 住垒包，发生时机比 较具有急迫性，在守住分数的价值上，比起 Hunter 较高些。因此给予 Patterson 稍高的排名。最後一件事，Patterson 得了些额外助杀，同时 Pence 在守分上失 些数字。这里需要学堂课：不要在相当接近的名次上，做些很无聊的辩论分析。 Juan Pierre had the worst arm of any full-time center fielder, but that is no surprise to anybody. No need to split hairs with Pierre, his is truly a noodle arm, and it's definitely not al dente (sorry). Juan Pierre 是全部专职中外野手里最弱肩，但应该没人被结果吓到。不需要 对这球员多做讨论，他真的只有面条手，而且完全没有嚼劲... --- 附上外野另两位置arms排名: Right Fielders Name Opps Kill+ Hold+ Runs Runs/200 Cuddyer_Mike 164 245 110 12.0 14.6 Francoeur_Jeff 177 241 112 11.9 13.4 Victorino_Shane 135 170 128 8.2 12.2 Young_Delmon 171 168 121 9.2 10.8 Rios_Alexis 160 124 112 4.5 5.6 Teahen_Mark 183 172 95 4.8 5.3 Abreu_Bobby 177 59 116 3.2 3.6 Hermida_Jeremy 146 114 102 2.1 2.8 Markakis_Nick 203 112 104 1.9 1.9 Guerrero_Vladimir 121 92 113 1.1 1.8 Guillen_Jose 212 83 107 1.2 1.1 Kearns_Austin 200 98 98 -0.3 -0.3 Scott_Luke 95 116 92 -0.6 -1.2 Ethier_Andre 112 175 78 -0.8 -1.5 Cruz_Nelson 90 128 88 -0.7 -1.6 Ordonez_Magglio 142 58 108 -1.3 -1.8 Nixon_Trot 82 127 101 -1.1 -2.6 Winn_Randy 115 0 101 -1.8 -3.1 Drew_J.D. 114 73 94 -1.8 -3.1 Dye_Jermaine 185 84 89 -3.3 -3.6 Encarnacion_Juan 82 33 105 -1.8 -4.3 Hawpe_Brad 144 68 90 -3.2 -4.4 Nady_Xavier 94 89 84 -2.3 -4.9 Hart_Corey 144 56 95 -5.6 -7.7 Green_Shawn 97 27 97 -3.8 -7.9 Griffey_Ken 162 31 84 -6.5 -8.1 Giles_Brian 130 22 83 -7.6 -11.6 Left Fielders Name Opps Kill+ Hold+ Runs Runs/200 Soriano_Alfonso 152 266 108 12.9 17.0 Monroe_Craig 103 154 106 2.2 4.3 Willingham_Josh 182 124 113 3.1 3.4 Anderson_Garret 100 147 100 1.6 3.2 Alou_Moises 101 151 98 1.6 3.2 Matsui_Hideki 133 109 103 1.9 2.9 Michaels_Jason 82 64 110 1.0 2.4 Bay_Jason 222 136 100 1.5 1.4 Duncan_Chris 130 84 101 0.5 0.7 Holliday_Matt 182 101 101 0.5 0.5 Ibanez_Raul 176 121 96 0.4 0.4 Byrnes_Eric 116 133 85 -0.2 -0.4 Jenkins_Geoff 151 93 97 -0.5 -0.6 Lee_Carlos 188 89 96 -0.7 -0.7 Burrell_Pat 142 125 96 -0.5 -0.7 Brown_Emil 81 190 87 -0.3 -0.7 Ramirez_Manny 129 110 90 -0.9 -1.5 Payton_Jay 157 18 106 -1.2 -1.5 Willits_Reggie 84 66 104 -0.7 -1.8 Crawford_Carl 176 32 108 -1.7 -2.0 Gathright_Joey 85 111 94 -1.7 -3.9 Harris_Willie 84 71 93 -1.8 -4.3 Church_Ryan 109 79 101 -2.4 -4.3 Dunn_Adam 161 57 95 -4.0 -5.0 Diaz_Matt 85 95 89 -2.1 -5.0 Kubel_Jason 84 32 98 -2.7 -6.4 Bonds_Barry 89 32 99 -2.9 -6.6 Gonzalez_Luis 120 101 81 -5.8 -9.6 Stewart_Shannon 153 55 85 -8.8 -11.6 --- From: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2007/ 相关作者分析理论请参考原文，翻得错误或不完全请见谅，并不吝推文指正，感恩。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.161.33.227 ※ 编辑: airplanes 来自: 218.161.33.227 (05/09 06:30)