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3 Joba Chamberlain RHP New York Yankees TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors 22 You may have heard of this fellow. Best known to big league fans as a dominant setup guy, Chamberlain is best cast as a four-pitch starter who projects as a true No. 1 starter. He has a four-pitch repertoire where all pitches project as average or better: a plus 94-98 mph four-seamer, a toxic 83-87 mph slider with good tilt and variable break, an 11/5 curveball with good depth, and a straight 81-84 mph changeup with good arm speed. The fastball and slider are already big league out pitches and in relief, he can probably get away without the other two pitches. Chamberlain has a great pitcher's build with broad shoulders and the height to get good downhill plane on his pitches, and his arm is quick. He's battled his weight in the past, leading to knee trouble, and he had bicep tendinitis in college that allowed him to fall to the Yankees in the supplemental round. 你也许听过这些。对大联盟球迷而言印象最深的是作为一个宰制联盟的Setup,张伯伦 其实是一个拥有四种球路的王牌先发。他有四种被认为是平均到以上的球路:94-98mph 的好速球,83-87mph锐利的超杀滑球,11~5且不易分辨的曲球,还有81-84不错的变速球 。速球跟滑球已经是大联盟等级的out-pitch,作为後援投手,他可能不用其他球路就搞 得定。张伯伦的宽肩膀跟身高还有快速的挥臂是天生的好投手。他过去曾经有体重问题 使得膝盖有点麻烦,在大学时也有二头肌问题使得洋基可以在选秀中捡到他。 21 Jose Tabata RF New York Yankees TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Tampa) 19 Tabata was in the top 10 last year, but a nagging hamate injury ended his 2007 season early, requiring surgery in August. Tabata has a quick bat and great hand-eye coordination, and he squares up balls as well as anyone on this list. He also has good pitch recognition, although that can manifest itself in working the count to get to a fastball he can drive. His raw power hasn't shown up in games, which could be explained by the hamate injury; hand and wrist injuries sap power, and full recovery from a broken hamate bone can take up to a year. Tabata can play center but has been bumped to right field by fellow Yankee prospect Austin Jackson (No. 24), and Tabata should be plus there with an above-average arm. He'd rank higher if the hamate problem was fully behind him, but until that becomes clear, there's still some risk here. Tabata去年在Top 10里面,不过恼人的钩骨伤势让他已手术提早结束07球季。Tabata有 很快的挥棒速度跟手眼协调能力,而且他可以把球打得跟在这名单上的其他人一样好。 他也有很好的辨识球路能力,让他可以总是等到他想要的速球。他的炮瓦还没在比赛中 彻底展现,可能跟钩骨伤势有关,手跟手腕的伤势会伤害炮瓦,而钩骨常常要等超过一 年才会完全复原。Tabata可以守中外野,但因为Austin Jackson使他站在右外野,Tabata 中外野会守得不错,而且他的肩膀也在水准以上。如果他可以完全摆脱钩骨的问题他的 排名会更高,但在那之前是有点风险。 24 Austin Jackson CF New York Yankees TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Tampa) 21 Jackson is my favorite kind of hitting prospect -- the athlete with a clue. Jackson was a top basketball prospect in high school, but the Yankees flexed their financial muscles and gave him first-round money in the eighth round, a move that looks brilliant in hindsight because of how advanced Jackson is for a multi-sport prospect. Jackson has good speed, a solid-average arm in center and good instincts on fly balls, but still has some work to do at the plate. His setup is excellent and his path to the ball is short, but he needs to continue working on keeping his weight back to get more power from the contact he makes, and he's too eager to chase the ball up. He's a potential middle-of-the-order bat because of his power and improving plate discipline. Jackson是我最喜欢的那型打击新秀-运动员的样子。Jackson在高中是个篮球新秀,但 洋基舒展财力在第八轮选他且给他一个第一轮的价码,因为Jackson的好表现使得事後看 起来非常明智。Jackson有很好的速度,中外野手而言不错的肩膀跟良好的飞球判断,但 在打击区上还需要加强。他的打击机制非常好且挥棒路径很短,但他必须试着让重心保持 在後才会有好的炮瓦,而且他太喜欢追打高球。他有潜力是个中段打序的打者因为他的 炮瓦跟选球进步的可能。 45 Ian Kennedy RHP New York Yankees TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors 23 Kennedy's stuff alone would put him in the lower reaches of this list. He is here because he has superb command of average or fringe-average stuff, so superb that he is going to succeed in the majors where many guys with superior stuff will fail. He works with a fringe-average fastball that touches 90 mph on occasion but mostly falls in the 87-88 mph range, and he commands it to all four edges of the zone. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, slightly above average with some tailing action, but it works extremely well because he keeps his arm speed consistent. His curve is solidly average as well. Kennedy repeats his delivery as well as any prospect on this list, commands all of his pitches and has a great feel for pitching. With plus stuff, he would be in the top 10 overall, but with his stuff, he will have to settle for an upside as a borderline No. 3 starter or a great No. 4 starter. 甘乃迪stuff的单调理应让他的排名更後面,他被排在这边是因为他对他平均左右、甚至 平均边缘的stuff有卓越的控制能力,卓越到他可能会得到即使那些stuff比他好的人也 无法做到的成就。他有一个平均边缘、偶尔会有90mph但常常只在87-88的速球,可以把 他控制在好球带的四个角落。第二好的球路是他的变速球,稍微超越平均并且有点尾劲。 他的曲球也差不多平均左右。甘乃迪的投球机制跟其他在这名单上的新秀一样好,所有 球路控制得宜并且相当了解怎麽投球。如果stuff更好,他会在十名内,但只以现在的东 西来说,他会是个坐四望三的先发投手。 -- My Blog,关於诚泰Cobras、NY Yankees与棒球数据 http://atlyankees.blogspot.com/ --



※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 61.230.126.228
1F:推 gerkk:推 02/01 17:33
2F:推 YGJHSU:push 02/01 17:49
3F:推 shepherdy:推 02/01 17:50
4F:推 deathcustom:坐四望三~现在的staff ace当年也被这样预测 02/01 17:59
5F:→ deathcustom:轮值後段投手,但是会有significant major career 02/01 18:00
6F:推 RollingWave:Jackson那段the athlete with a clue.应该是... 02/01 18:19
7F:→ RollingWave:会打球的运动员之类的意思吧.... 02/01 18:20
8F:→ RollingWave:如果只是运动员那CJ Henry也...XD 02/01 18:20
9F:推 siliver:Ian只要达到四号投手的水准,对洋基的轮值就有很大的帮助了 02/01 18:47
10F:→ siliver:但如果能找回球速......那真的会很威. 02/01 18:48
11F:→ RollingWave:piss Roger... pass the... :P 02/01 18:49
12F:→ kenro:不看好Ian..他应该就只是那样不会大突破了 看能不能去换好货 02/01 19:03
13F:推 RollingWave:他现在那样如果是Carlos Silva的话你的好货要 02/01 19:05
14F:→ RollingWave:>>>>>>> 4/52M的价值欧... :P 02/01 19:06
15F:推 erichito19:Carlos Silva不知道要被提几年XD 02/01 19:26
16F:推 summoon:Alan Horne很没存在感,都没人提到他 02/01 19:34
17F:推 raygod:Ian真可怜,一直被说普通,日塔奈美吗?... 02/01 19:36
18F:推 jyhsheng:小王当年也不看好阿 02/01 19:43
19F:推 warchiefdodo:Alan Horne 在BP排67名的样子... 02/01 19:52
20F:推 wwwee:张博伦可能会越来越胖..... 02/01 20:33
21F:推 redsnipertd:再胖下去膝盖就要爆了 02/01 20:57
22F:推 peachteagif:那是因为王莫明其妙的长出一颗sinker吧@@ 02/01 21:01
23F:→ RollingWave:张伯伦现在比他大一时瘦"很多" 02/01 21:16
24F:→ RollingWave:其实他现在是一路受下来的结果 02/01 21:18
25F:→ RollingWave:他当然有可能胖回去不过至少看起来他应该很清楚 02/01 21:18
26F:→ RollingWave:whats good for him 02/01 21:18
27F:→ RollingWave:还有Carlos Silva 会被提到下个蠢约而已, 02/01 21:19
28F:→ RollingWave:以这几年的"效率"来看大概不会太久 02/01 21:19
29F:推 RollingWave:Alan Horne各方看法满极端的 02/01 21:21
30F:→ RollingWave:Keith Law不知道是拿错了scouting report还是怎麽样 02/01 21:22
31F:推 awhat:我想看麦狗在小联盟的scouting report...... 02/01 21:22
32F:→ RollingWave:其他几乎都赞赏Horne的stuff他却提出反论 02/01 21:22
33F:→ RollingWave:who knows,至少是个很有趣的option 02/01 21:23
34F:推 eilgreen:推awhat 看到Ian的评论时 直觉也是想到麦狗 02/01 21:27
35F:推 RollingWave:那机率低到不行 02/01 21:28
36F:推 siliver:恩,Joba应该很清楚要报答他老爸接下来该怎麽作,如果他受 02/01 22:02
37F:→ siliver:不了诱惑又肥回去,那他也不过如此而已. 02/01 22:03







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