Debunking the biggest myths of MLB's wild-card era Tom Verducii Posted: Tuesday September 25, 2007 11:27AM; Updated: Tuesday September 25, 2007 2:29PM 重点: 拆穿外卡制度采用以来四个季後赛最大的迷思 1. 当然, 采用外卡的制度後让许多的城市有更多希望拿到季後赛的资格。但是如果外卡 也是那麽棒的同样取得了季後赛的资格, 那为什麽在球季的最後一周洋基和红袜仍然 这麽努力地"争战"为了取得分区第一的位置? 大联盟为两个联盟各增加了一个外卡的 资格, 让球队除了争取分区冠军之外还有第二个取得季後赛资格的机会, 这也让季後 分区的竞赛更饶富趣味。洋基的总教练Joe Torre说: " 我是不认为以外卡的身份进到 季後赛会有很多不利的条件, 反而外卡在赢得分区竞赛占了点优势。"球队已经知道最 终以分区第二的外卡资格进入季後赛, 或是以分区第一取得季後赛资格, 两者其实没 什麽不同。外卡的球队在季後系列赛的成绩是26胜20败, 同时过去五年与分区冠军的 球队(4队进到世界大赛, 2次世界冠军)比较, 外卡的球反而更有机会打到世界大赛 (6队)也取得较多的世界大赛的冠军(3次)。 2. 但既然每个人似乎都知道最终以外卡及分区第一进到季後赛, 两者得到冠军的机会 差异不大, 为什麽其他跟季後赛相关的不实的谣言仍然传得这麽厉害? 本周你将会听 到很多关於"状况好得火烫的球队"、"主场优势"及"正规系列赛胜败"的重要性。九月 打得有点糟的红袜和大都会队季後赛是不是会遇到麻烦? 本周最後取得联盟最佳纪录 的球队是不是就拥有了主场的优势? 印地安人本季系列赛以0比6败给洋基, 是不是就 会特别怕洋基? 聊来聊去都是这些几乎没什麽价值的残羹剩菜，却在收音机和假日的 报纸栏中没意义地占了一些时间及篇幅。直接把纪录拿出来看，采用外卡制度以来四 个主要流传的迷思将一一被拆穿: ‧纪录最好的球队优势最大 这根本是胡址。这句话唯一的事实是可以在大联盟收益的分配上拿到比较多。但是 目前大联盟球队间的差距和过去已经不同了。想像中最佳战蹟的球队跟排名第15的球队 比起八年前实力的差距其实相当的窄小。你要证明? 从1995年到1999年间, 拿到最佳战 蹟的球队在季後系列赛的胜率是52.5% (21胜19败, 这是八年前)。但从2000年以後最佳 战蹟的球队胜率就变成36.2%(17胜30败)。基本上，战绩最佳的球队输了也不是什麽爆 冷门的事情。 ‧状况"好得火烫"的球队－季赛最後阶段打得很好的球队，会是最恐怖的球队。 　　 　　　喂? 有人看到去年的情况吗? 圣路易红雀队(12胜17败)和底特律老虎队(12胜16败) 去年九月都打得糟透了，但是这两只球队最後都打到了世界大赛。那不要只说去年好了 。采用外卡制度以後24支进到世界大赛的球队，其中有14队--明显的是大部份--九月一 日以後的胜率是比全年比赛的胜率还要差。红雀和老虎队在这12年中进到世界大赛的球 　队中，九月的胜率才只排名倒数第六和第七(还有胜率更差的)。 　　　 ‧季中系列赛赢过对手的球队比较有优势 　　　不是这样，下次还有人要把季赛的成绩应用到季後赛一对一的竞赛中，就叫他们省 省口舌。这是没有关系的。过去两年季中系列赛赢过对手的球队，在季後遇到相同对手 时的成绩是3胜9败。我是不是听到有人嘀咕这是"小样本"? 好吧，再看看外卡制度以来 分区系列赛和联盟冠军系列赛的成绩。季中赢得系列赛的球队季後再度相逢的成绩是 33胜36败，包括从2001年以来是12胜21败(排除有三次系列赛的遭遇两队季中打成平手) 。所以别怕洋基队，印地安人的球迷。十月事实上是一个全新的球季，前面的战蹟参考 意义不大。 ‧取得主场优势对球队是重要的 不，也不是这样。外卡制度以来，主场球队的战蹟是208胜182败，胜率是0.533。 　这390场胜负的结果，跟拿铜板丢390次得出的结果差异不大。整体而言，每年所有的 主场球队只比客场球队多了一胜(这麽这麽多球队所以还是五五波)。但是，喂，如果 　季後系列赛打了很多场才决定胜负，你会希望最後一战可以在主场比赛，对吧? 这种 　想法根本无关紧要。79%的分区系列赛和联盟冠军系列赛都没有打到最後一场才决定 胜负(72个系列赛有57次打不到最後一场)。而那15次打到最後一场决定胜负的系列赛, 主场球队是5胜10败。现在，只有世界大赛第七战在主场比赛比较有意义: 从1979年以 　後世界大赛第七战主场球队的战蹟是8胜0败。但是世界大赛主场的安排不是取决於战 蹟，而是用明星赛的结果来决定。 3. 基本的意义是: 确定获得季後赛资格的球队就别冲得那麽快想要得到更好的战蹟吧！还 是让你的球员好好休息，特别是投手。无论你想相信季後存在那些优势的迷思，实际 上季後赛就像Billy Beane说的其实跟丢骰子得出的结果差不多，各种优势的迷思都不 是事实。 Sure, the wild-card system works at keeping pennant hopes alive in more cities. But if it's so great, why do we get the Yankees and Red Sox in the last week of the season in a "battle" for first place in which neither team will play very hard to win the division? Baseball needs to add a second wild card in each league -- and a play-in game between wild cards before the Division Series -- to make division races meaningful. "I don't think the wild cards are at much of a disadvantage," Yankees manager Joe Torre said. "There should be more of an advantage earned for winning your division." Teams have figured out that finishing in second place is no different than finishing first when it comes to their postseason chances. Wild-card teams are 26-20 in postseason series -- and in the past five years have accounted for more World Series appearances (six) and more world championships (three) than division winners (four pennants, two championships). But while everybody seems to understand that finishing second can be just as rewarding as finishing first, why do other untruths about the postseason continue to flourish? This is the week you'll hear all about the importance of "hot teams," "home field advantage" and "season series." Are the Red Sox and Mets in trouble because of a spotty September? Shouldn't a team push for the best record in the league this week to get home field advantage? And shouldn't the Indians (0-6 in the season series vs. New York) be afraid of the Yankees? It's almost all hogwash -- talk-radio prattle and off-day newspaper filler that means very little. To set the record straight, here are the top four myths about postseason baseball in the wild-card era: 1. The team with the better record is the favorite. Baloney. That might have been true before full revenue sharing kicked in. But now the playing field in baseball is more level than it has ever been. The difference between the supposed best team in baseball and the 15th-best team in baseball is far narrower than what it was even eight years ago. Want proof? From 1995 through '99, the team with the better record won 52.5 percent of postseason series (21-19). Since 2000 the team with the better record has won only 36.2 percent of the time (17-30). Basically, there's no such thing as an upset anymore. 2. The "hot" teams -- the ones that play well down the stretch -- are the ones to fear in the postseason. Hello? Was anybody watching last year? St. Louis (12-17) and Detroit (12-16) were awful in September, but wound up playing each other in the World Series. But it's not just last year. Of the 24 World Series teams in the wild-card era, 14 of them -- a clear majority -- posted a worse winning percentage after Sept. 1 than they did overall. The Cardinals and Tigers were the sixth and seventh teams in that 12-year period to play losing baseball after Sept. 1 and still reach the World Series. 3. The team that won the season series has the edge over its opponent. Not so. The next time somebody wants to bring up how playoff teams did against one another during the season, tell them to save their breath. It's irrelevant. Over the past two seasons, the team that won the season series over its opponent is 3-9 when those same teams meet in league postseason play. Did I hear someone say "small sample"? OK, let's look at the entire Division Series and League Championship Series history during the wild-card era. The team that won the season series is 33-36 in postseason rematches, including 12-21 since 2001 (excludes three matchups of teams that tied their regular-season series). So fear not the Yankees, Indians fans. October really is a whole new season. 4. It's important to earn home field advantage. No, it's not. Home teams in postseason games in the wild-card era are 208-182, a .533 winning percentage -- not too different than if you flipped a coin 390 times. It works out to roughly one extra win per year for all postseason teams combined. But, hey, you say you really want that last game in your park if the series goes the distance, right? Doesn't matter. First of all, 79 percent of Division and League Championship Series never go the maximum number of games (57 of 72). And in those 15 series that did go the distance, the home teams went 5-10. Now, having World Series Game 7 in your home park might mean something: Home teams are 8-0 in those ultimate games since 1979. But the site of that game is determined by the outcome of the All-Star Game, not by how many games a team wins during the season. Bottom line: Playoff-certain teams should forget putting the pedal to the metal. Rest your players, especially your pitchers. The postseason -- no matter what myths you want to believe -- as Billy Beane so well put it, really is a crapshoot. --

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