Mussina's the Safer, Yet Less Exciting, Bet By STEVEN GOLDMAN September 20, 2007 重点: Moose or others? 有经验好还是年轻人比较好? 1. 有一部老的华纳的卡通名为"Show Biz Bugs," 片中邦尼兔和达飞鸭两个都是杂耍的 演员，片中两人都卖力超越对方。达飞鸭最後把自己炸掉而赢得欢众欢呼。邦尼兔则 恳求他来个安可，邦尼说:"太棒了! 达飞鸭! 观众爱死这个演出了。他们要多看几 次。"当达飞鸭的灵魂飞上天堂时，他向上帝忏悔式地回答说: "我知道，我知道，但 我只能表演一次而已。" 2. 洋基目前所追求的就是这个被我们称作达飞鸭的困境: 球员呈现的好表现大都只有 一次或次数不多, 没法证明这好表现可以维持下去或一再的出现。若有一个打者在大 联盟的第一个打数把球轰出场外, 但我们没有办法假定他就可以在第二，第三，第四 个打数同样又可以把球轰出去。取而代之的，我们会给点时间看看他在下十次的打数 打得怎麽样－而且如果我们够聪明的话，我们应该看看他後面一百个打数打得如何－ 在我们下结论说他会是下一个A-Rod前应该这麽做才是正确的。洋基现在就处在这种 给点时间看看决定球员的状况，设法弄清楚三个年轻投手Joba Chamberlain, Phil 　 Hughes和Ian Kennedy在季後赛会有什麽样的表现。但是现在的情况是洋基却相信他 们要担心的只有Hughes和Kennedy两人。洋基在季後赛需要几个先发投手，要看洋基最 　 後在美联季後第一轮分区系列赛中要打8天或7天的赛程（如果洋基最後打出美联球队 最佳的成绩，就可以自己选择）。如果第一轮要打满5场才决定胜负的话，8天或7天的 赛程将决定洋基需要三位或四位先发投手(当然如果洋基是打较长的8天赛程的话，他 们也可以选择用4位先发投手)。除了发生受伤的情况以外，Andy Pettitte和王建民 会在四位先发投手中占两席的位子，火箭人老克上周对上红袜虎虎生风的先发平息 了洋基对他手伤的恐惧，他手肘的伤还没有到达让他棒球生涯结束的程度。 3. 那4位先发还剩下一个空缺，Mussina在周二晚上对金莺时投出一场好投之後，几乎可 以确定将是填补这个空缺的人选。选定他的理由则是因为两个自相矛盾的看法。第一 是最近一次先发的(好)表现应该比他之前五次先发(不好)的内容为重要－他9月12日对 上蓝鸟队时"成功"的好投应该是只是球打进场内却很幸运地没造成大麻烦，而不是当 日他的投球压制了蓝鸟的打线。第二则是他生涯的纪录应该比他今年不稳定的表现更 有意义。但请记得，即使在8月16日他开始表现像Steve Trout那麽糟前，他的自责失 分率是4.50, 或正好就是联盟投手平均的水准，被打击的成绩是0.294的打击率/0.333 的上垒率/0.455的长打率。可以说一个平均水准的打者碰上Mussina, 都可以变身成为 Jeff Francoeur。 4. 所有的球队都倾向在季後赛选择有经验的投手，这理论是经验将让他们能够克服沈重 　 的压力能够站上季後赛这全国注目的舞台之上。但实际上，季後第一轮分区系列赛移 到公共电视台转播，这些系列赛收视不见得有那麽的高，我们是说这全国注目的舞台 可能是相当的小。撇开这个不谈，各个球队也害怕年轻的球员无法处理季後赛这麽大 的场面发生的各种状况。 5. 这当然是个没有事实根据的论点(别再相信拔到....)。没有证据显示年轻的投手无法 应付季後赛的情况。从现今季後赛开始超过104年的时间内，有很多的例子是年轻的投 手在十月变身成为明星选手的表现。从1942年世界大赛系列赛，红雀队的菜鸟投手 Johnny Beazley就两度击败过洋基队, 到1981年世界大赛系列赛20岁的Fernand Valenzuela同样打败了洋基队。每个球员都是不同的个体，对於压力会有不同的反应。 的确有些年轻的投手的确受不了压力而崩溃，但有经验的投手当然有可能也会有同样 结果。其他的或许则是不习惯在聚光灯的照射下，会因很寻常的理由而投不好－他们 会找不到曲球的球感，或是不该对一些打者吊了一个滑球，或是投球受到球场顺逆风 的影响(不会生牵拖厝边，睡不好嫌床歪)，或是其他乱七八糟的理由。 6. 虽然是这样，年轻选手总是会承担一些污名，这总是让洋基宁愿选择一个二流但有经 验的投手而不是大有希望的年轻投手。Ian Kennedy在他三次的先发里投得非常好, 当 然是比Mussina大部份投出的结果要好。是的, 这里存在着达飞鸭困境的一个要素: Kennedy只投了19局，这麽小的样本是不足以信赖的。但比起Kennedy, 张伯伦只有投 了18局，却足以让他赢得担任关键的角色，成为Mariano Rivera上场前守住後段局数 的重要桥梁。他难道不会在关键时刻崩溃，那18局的投球就可以证明他就不会刚好演 出无法再来一次的达飞鸭的把戏? 他一局所造成的伤害就可能和Kennedy所造成的伤 害一样的多。当然，张伯伦可以投出每小时100 miles的球速, 但不能改变任何的可能 性。投得够猛无法保证他就不会犯(一般人认为)年轻人个性上的毛病。 7. 这绝不是在说选Moose是个错误的决定。他周二的投球表现棒极了，具有比他一个月前 更好的球速。在球季结束前他至少还有一次先发的机会, 假如他可以再一次投出这麽好 　 的球路威力，洋基队的先发投手教练群将会有多到不知道怎麽选的窘境，因为他们面 前的先发投手个个都是好货。但是没必要太快去决定，万一洋基选坏了然後用他们自己 选择上到季後赛的舞台去作惊险的演出，洋基队将只有一次演出的机会－那就是输掉第 一轮的季後赛。 There's an old Warner Bros. cartoon, "Show Biz Bugs," in which Bugs and Daffy Duck are vaudevillians trying to outdo each other. Daffy finally wins the audience's affection by blowing himself up. Bugs implores him to do an encore. "That's terrific, Daffy! They loved it. They want more." "I know, I know," Daffy testily replies as his ghost ascends to Heaven, "but I can only do it once." The Yankees are currently exploring what we might call Daffy's Dilemma: the chance that any performance seen only once or a few times can't be sustained or repeated. Several hitters have hit the ball out of the park in their first major league at bat. But we don't assume that he will also hit it out in his second, third, and fourth at bats. Instead, we wait and see what he does in his next 10 — and if we're smart, his next 100 — before concluding that he's the new A-Rod. The Yankees are in the same wait-and-see position with three of their young pitchers, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy. But chances are that the team believes it only has to worry about the latter two. Depending on whether the Yankees end up playing the seven-day or eight-day American League Divisional Series schedule — the team that finishes with the best overall record in the AL will decide — the Yankees will need three or four starters if the series goes the full five games (and they could elect to use four even if they play the longer series). Barring injury, Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang are a lock for two of the four slots. Roger Clemens's gusty start against Boston last weekend allayed fears that his elbow would not be up to the task of finishing this one last coda to his career. That leaves one spot open. After Tuesday night's strong outing against the Orioles, Mike Mussina will almost certainly be chosen to fill it. The argument for him will be based on two contradictory notions. The first is that his most recent start should count more than his previous five appearances — his "successful" start at Toronto on September 12 being more an example of good luck on balls in play than pitching dominance. The second is that his career record means more than this year's inconsistent performance. Remember, even before Mussina began his Steve Trout phase on August 16, his ERA for the season was 4.50, or exactly league average, and opponents were hitting .294 AVG /.333 OBA /.455 SLG against him, which is to say that against Mussina, the average hitter turned into something like Jeff Francoeur. All teams gravitate toward veteran pitchers at playoff time, on the theory that their experience will allow them to transcend the immense pressure of being on the national stage. Actually, with the division series moving to TBS and the lower ratings expectations for these series, we're talking about a very small fraction of the national stage. But putting that aside, they fear the youngsters can't handle the big hoedown. This is, of course, a myth. There is no evidence that younger pitchers can't handle the postseason. Over the 104 years since the modern postseason began, there are many examples of young pitchers turning in star performances in October, from Cardinals rookie Johnny Beazley beating the Yankees twice in the 1942 World Series, to 20-year-old Fernando Valenzuela beating them in the 1981 World Series. Every player is an individual and reacts to stress differently. No doubt some young pitchers have folded under the pressure — but it's certain that many veterans have too. Others, perhaps, shrugged off the heat of the spotlight, but failed to pitch well for the usual reasons — they didn't have the feel of their curveball, or they hung a slider to the wrong hitter, or the wind was blowing out, or any of dozens of other reasons. Despite this, the onus is always on the youngster, and this may lead the Yankees to start a mediocre veteran over a promising youngster. Ian Kennedy has pitched very well in his three starts, certainly better than Mussina has pitched in most of his. Yes, there is an element of Daffy's Dilemma here: Kennedy has thrown just 19 innings, and that small a sample is not to be trusted. Compared to Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain has thrown only 18 innings, but those were enough to earn him the crucial role of late-inning bridge to Mariano Rivera. Should he fold in the crunch, should those 18 innings prove to be an unrepeatable Daffy trick, he can do as much damage in one inning as a Kennedy could do in five. Sure, Chamberlain throws 100 miles an hour, but that doesn't change anything. Throwing hard is no protection from the character flaw of being young. None of this is to say that the Moose is the wrong choice. On Tuesday he looked terrific, with better velocity than he had shown a month before. He'll get one more start before the season ends, and if he shows such good stuff again, the Yankees will have an embarrassment of riches in the pitching department, with no bad choices before them. But there should be no rush to judgment, lest the Yankees choose poorly and execute a stunt of their own that can only be done once — losing in the first round of the playoffs. Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for yesnetwork.com and is the author of "Forging Genius," a biography of Casey Stengel. --

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