Keeping Score Rodriguez Is Worth a Few More Wins, but Not $30 Million www.nytimes.com By DAN ROSENHECK Published: September 16, 2007 重点: A-Rod可以多得好几场胜利, 但价值恐怕没有3千万这麽多 1. 从A-Rod在2000年与德州游击兵队签下10年2亿5千2百万的合约後, 他就变成了有天份的 棒球选手之中最大赢家的一个象徵。全部的合约超过史上任何合约的两倍, 古老的智 慧告诉我们A-Rod签下的这份合约简直就跟用抢的差不多。 2. 但七年後, A-Rod的老板对签下这麽棒的合约感到心花怒放。2004年球季前洋基队说 服游击兵队同意继续负担A-Rod薪水的1/3後, 决定让A-Rod来到了洋基队, 之後A-Rod 赢到了第一座MVP的奖项, 而且似乎能够在今年赢得第二座这个头衔。的确, 2007年球 季在剩下15场赛事时, A-Rod打出了0.316的打击率, 52支全垒打, 141分打点及84个保 送, 已经几乎确定是大联盟史上三垒手打出的最佳纪录。只有Mike Schmidt在1981年球 季因罢工缩短球季的那年, 打出了接近A-Rod在三垒手这个守备位置的水准。 3. 现在很难去质疑A-Rod这份合约是不合理的, 即使粗略地计算他的年薪是2千7百万元已 　 经比年薪第二高的球员Manny Ramirez多出了35%。但是在他今年最佳表现的球季之後, 面对的是从2000年以来球员市场上最火红的一年, A-Rod预期将会行使合约中的跳脱条 款变成一位自由球员。A-Rod的经纪人$cott Bora$是棒球交易场上最有名的喊价专家, 他已经让A-Rod注意到他具有一年3千万的身价。洋基的总经理Brian Cashman则说, 假 如A-Rod行使跳脱条款的话, 洋基将不会参予A-Rod的竞价。是否有其他的球队付得起 Bora$喊出的价钱并在竞价中取得领先呢? 4. A-Rod以後将很难再次出现2007年球季这样的成绩, 但即有一定程度的退步A-Rod的表现 仍然会是大联盟中属一属二的成绩。Baseball Prospectus的Nate Silver预测A-Rod明 年大体上以担任三垒手而言, 他的成绩会是打击率0.302, 上垒率0.404, 长打率0.601 (因为洋基球场比较不利於右打者, 所以若A-Rod离开洋基队他的成绩还会稍微再好一 点)。 5. 相对而言, 打得相当普通的资深三垒手像巨人队的Pedro Feliz在昨晚的比赛之前, 他 的成绩是0.249的打击率, 0.290的上垒率及0.414的长打率。假如巨人队放掉Feliz签 下A-Rod, 巨人队可以预期的是可以比Feliz当三垒手时多赢八场比赛。 6. 如果A-Rod可以移回他原始的守备位置游击手, 他甚至会更有价值。当他在水手队和游 击兵队时, 他在游击的位置是超出平均水准的游击手, 但当他来到洋基时为了尊重 洋基队长Derek Jeter所以移防到三垒手。A-Rod在离开游击兵队後体形变得比较粗壮, 当然是没法像以前守得这麽好。但是回到游击区, 他打击的进攻价值可以更大。以蓝 鸟队为例, 蓝鸟队刚与John McDonald签下了两年的延长合约, McDonald在周五比赛前 打出糟糕的0.267的打击, 0.321的长打率, 而且蓝鸟队的Rogers Center球场是对打者 较为有利的球场。McDonald在守备上相当优於A-Rod的游击手, 但不重要, 假如蓝鸟队 付得起钱签下A-Rod来取代McDonald, 他们2008年的球季可能多赢九场比赛。多赢九场 比赛将大约是2008年A-Rod可以给新老板最大的贡献。但是他是32岁, 即使他可能可以 维持他的速度而且相当的耐超, 但是这年纪终究到了逐渐退化的时候。 7. Silver在一份e-mail的讯息中, 写下A-Rod到了2009年球季可能掉到多赢八场的价值, 然後变成减掉三场, 2010年和2011年大概值多赢五场, 2012年则可以多赢四场。他 可以适合的球队是白袜队, 在游击区正好有一位表现很差的打者Juan Uribe,　其他的 防守位置则有一些超越平均水准的核心打线, 同时位在一个竞争火热的美联中区。 8. 但是A-rod值不值得一年3千万的身价呢? 他的身价似乎不太接近这个数字。Silver写 下进入季後赛的球队预计赢得的比赛是83至94之间, 每多一场平均可以多得2百6拾万 的收益。假如棒球这个产业持续稳定地成长, 预计每年将成长8%。如此, 假如A-Rod 在一个像白袜队这样的球队打球。A-Rod在2008手预计可以产生2千5百万的收益, 2009年是2千4百万, 2010和2011年是1千7百万, 2012年为1千6百万, 总值不超过5年 1亿元的价值。他希望签下比1亿元还多出50%的合约, 而且这五年之间或许还有一到 两年可能刚好就在他棒球生涯的晚期。 9. 因为很少有自由球员真正产生足够的收益来证实合约具有相同的价值, 所以对A-Rod 而言提3千万的年薪就一点也不奇怪了, 就像去年季後太空人给了Carlos Lee一年 1千7百万的年薪。但在棒球场上可以赚钱的实际方法是, 开发年轻的球员在他们还 没有资格成为自由球员时，从这些年轻球员的产出获取投资的报酬率。就跟很多的竞 标案一样, 对A-Rod这场赌局最後真正的赢家反而是那些束手旁观的球队。 From the moment Alex Rodriguez signed his 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers in 2000, he became the emblem for baseball’s talent sweepstakes run amok. The total package was worth more than twice as much as any deal that had preceded it, and the conventional wisdom was that Rodriguez had made out like a bandit. But seven years later, it is Rodriguez’s employer that is laughing all the way to the bank. Since the Yankees acquired him before the 2004 season — after persuading the Rangers to continue paying a third of his salary — he has won one Most Valuable Player award and seems a lock to win another. Indeed, Rodriguez’s 2007 season — he was hitting .316 with 52 home runs, 141 runs batted in and 84 walks with 15 games to play — is almost certainly the greatest year ever by a major league third baseman. Only Mike Schmidt in the strike-shortened 1981 season comes close to matching Rodriguez’s level of performance at the position. It’s hard to argue that Rodriguez is getting a raw deal, as his $27 million annual salary over the next three years is 35 percent higher than that of Manny Ramirez, the game’s second-highest-paid player. But coming off his best season, and facing the hottest market for players since 2000, Rodriguez is expected to exercise an opt-out clause in his contract and become a free agent. His agent, Scott Boras, is baseball’s premier auctioneer, and he has made clear that it will take $30 million a season to get Rodriguez’s attention. Brian Cashman, the Yankees’ general manager, has said the team will not bid on Rodriguez if he opts out. Can any other team meet Boras’s asking price and come out ahead on the deal? Rodriguez’s 2007 season will be hard to repeat, but even a sizable drop-off would leave him among baseball’s elite. Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus projected him to hit .303 with a .404 on-base percentage and a .601 slugging percentage next year, while playing a roughly average third base. (Those numbers would be slightly higher if he left Yankee Stadium, which is quite unfriendly to right-handed sluggers.) By contrast, a mediocre veteran third baseman like San Francisco’s Pedro Feliz was hitting .249 with a .290 on-base percentage and .414 slugging percentage entering last night’s game. If the Giants were to let Feliz go and sign Rodriguez, they could probably expect to win about eight more games next season than they would if they stuck with Feliz. Rodriguez may be even more valuable if he can move back to his original position, shortstop. He was an above-average fielder at the position with the Mariners and the Rangers, but was shifted to third by the Yankees out of deference to Derek Jeter, the team captain. Rodriguez has bulked up since his Texas days and would certainly not play shortstop as well as he used to. But the value of his offense would be magnified there. The Blue Jays, for example, just signed a two-year extension with John McDonald, who compiled a putrid .267 on-base percentage and .321 slugging percentage through Friday, even though he benefits from playing in the hitter-friendly Rogers Center. McDonald is a far superior fielder to Rodriguez, but nonetheless, if Toronto had shelled out for Rodriguez instead, their 2008 record would probably be about nine games better. Nine victories is thus about the maximum contribution Rodriguez could make to a new employer in 2008. But he is 32, and although he is likely to age well — he has retained his speed and is remarkably durable — a decline over time is inevitable. Silver, in an e-mail message, wrote that Rodriguez would probably drop off to an eight-win value in 2009, then have to move back to third, where he would be worth about five wins in 2010 and 2011 and four in 2012. He may be a good fit for a team like the White Sox, who field the banjo hitter Juan Uribe at shortstop, have a core of above-average players in place and play in a hotly contested division. But is Rodriguez worth $30 million a year? Not close. Silver wrote that teams on the playoff bubble — those expecting to win 83 to 94 games — collect an additional $2.6 million in revenue for every extra game they win, on average. If the industry continues to grow at a healthy rate, those figures should increase by 8 percent a year. Thus, if he played for a team like the White Sox, Rodriguez could be expected to generate $25 million of revenue in 2008, $24 million in 2009, $17 million in 2010 and 2011, and $16 million in 2012, for a total of a little less than $100 million over five years. He is hoping to sign for about 50 percent more, and perhaps with another year or two tacked on once he is well into his twilight years. Few free agents actually produce enough revenue to justify their contracts, and $30 million annually for Rodriguez would not be as outlandish as, say, the $17 million a season that the Astros gave to Carlos Lee last off-season. But the real way to make money in baseball is by developing young players and reaping the rewards of their production before they hit free agency. As with many auctions, the real winners of the A-Rod sweepstakes will be the teams that stay on the sideline. E-mail: [email protected] --

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