※ [本文转录自 MLB 看板] 作者: nolander (Dent) 站内: MLB 标题: Five Questions: New York Mets 时间: Sat Apr 3 15:50:10 2010 原文连结: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-new-york-mets5/ Five questions: New York Mets 五题:纽约梅子 by Jonathan Halket April 02, 2010 Some questions are questions, others are really answers. The Mets enter the 2010 season with question marks hovering ominously over virtually every player. There remains much that is unsure or even unknown about this team. But the number and nature of so many of the questions should help us answer two questions about the team's prospects and management's prospects. 有些问题谁也答不了 而其他的会有答案 梅子们今年背负着为数惊人且巨大的问号 而那问号差不多都来自於神对每个梅子球员下的降头 也因此尽管这些问题太困难...天意不可违你也知道的 但我们试图用一些问题来探索这球队的未来 How healthy is Jose Reyes? Will Jason Bay be a huge liability in left field? What about Jeff Francoeur at the plate? Can the new, veteran catchers, Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco, really help the pitching staff? How much will Luis Castillo regress from last season? Will the bullpen be any good? Will David Wright's power return? These are some of the questions that I don't ask—I have only five. However, I might sneakily answer some of them as I deal with some of the others. Jose Reyes还健康吗? 接生贝是不是个能依靠的左外? 粉裤到底酷不酷? 新来的老捕手Rod Barajas跟Henry Blanco能不能帮上现在这群投手的忙? 卡司题能不能(照常理)反弹? 牛棚有没有挡头? D.莱特的炮瓦回得来吗? 这些问题我不会都问 当然 因为只有五题要答 不过 我会利用答某题的机会顺便提到其他几题 (译按:废话= =) 1. Whither Carlos Beltran? 1. 川哥将走向何方? When the Mets signed Beltran in 2005, they were buying the services of a complete player. When healthy, he's been probably the best center fielder in the game the past several years. After undergoing some sort of knee surgery (at one point rumored to be microfracture surgery, but seemingly merely arthroscopic in nature) this past season, there are naturally some questions about how much speed he'll still have. Always an extremely savvy base-stealer, he'd seen some decline in stolen base attempts in recent years as his knee pain worsened. 05年签下川哥 梅子是为了一个完整的高手 健康的川哥是近年来最棒的中外 然而在膝盖手术之後 (据说是骨头小裂痕? 但也许只不过是膝关节镜的问题) 上季他的速度掉了 不再像以前那样机伶的偷垒大概说明了膝伤恶化的状况 However, the bigger reason to wonder about his speed is because of the runs he saves in the field. As spacious as Citi Field's outfield is and with Bay and Francoeur totemically manning left and right field, Beltran's leatherwork is invaluable. A lost step in either direction could see many more doubles for opposing hitters. 有关速度 更重要的是守备时他能守几分 你也知道花旗球场有多难守 贝爷跟粉库这两个立牌恐怕挡不住...川哥的顶级身手更形重要 追球差一步可能会把很多一安变二安.... Angel Pagan should see the lion's share of playing time in center until Beltran returns (at the earliest in mid-May). With a UZR of 5.8 and a batting average of .306 last season, Pagan won't be a precipitous drop-off for the Mets on the field or getting on base (though Beltran is much better at drawing walks). Of course, if for some terrible reason the Mets choose to play Gary Matthews Jr., then there will be calamity in center. Angel Pagan会在川哥回来(最早是五月中)之前挡中外 去年他UZR5.8 AVG.306 让今年开季应该不会那麽惨 (虽然川哥更会选保送啦) 当然 要是不幸得用上GMJ的话 那就真的是惨案一件了 The Mets won't be able to replace Beltran's power from the center field spot, though. There has been some chatter in the ether forecasting a fall in Beltran's power. Even THT's own projection, Oliver, barely has him breaking 20 home runs in any season for the rest of his career. I am not so dour; I still see him staying above 25 home runs (based on a full season's number of plate appearances). The dramatic fall in his HR/FB rate in 2009 to 10.8 percent echoes the fall in 2005 from which he rebounded nicely to his more usual career levels. Even the slightest fall in power will be keenly felt, though, because of the lack of power at other spots on the field. 川哥是没人可以取代的 ether forecasting有人说他的炮瓦已经不行了 THT的预测也...不是很友善地认为从今以後20发是极限 但我没那麽悲观 打满全季25+应该是可以期待 尽管去年的HR/FB骤降到10.8 但今年应该会像05年一样适当的反弹 不过不幸的是 即使他的炮瓦只掉一点也很容易被注意到 你也知道这支球队的打线洞有多深... 2. Does it really matter who's on first? 2. 谁在一垒重要吗? The biggest power difference between the Mets and the rest of the league will come at first base. As any fantasy player knows, first base is stuffed with power throughout the league. While the Mets had Carlos Delgado in the lineup, the team was no different. No longer—neither likely starter Daniel Murphy nor potential backups Mike Jacobs, Chris Carter and Fernando Tatis—is going to bring league average power (for a first baseman) to the plate. (Just in case you were wondering, Jacobs had a slugging percentage of only .401 last year, which is off the map for a first baseman.) 以前梅子各位置炮瓦赢人最多的就在一垒 有玩FB的都知道 一垒手是各队最大支的位置 当屌嘎多还在的时候 梅子一垒至少有30cm 然而现在Daniel Murphy或备胎们: Mike Jacobs, Chris Carter跟Fernando Tatis 最多只有15...平均大小 (对了 去年Jacobs的SLG.401 说他10公分都太抬举他了) The Mets' hopes rest instead on either Murphy becoming a sort of Keith Hernandez-esque line drive machine or on minor leaguer Ike Davis stepping-in and winning the role and fans' hearts. Murphy does show great contact percentage, which makes up for his low walk rates, and he does hit a lot of doubles. But his groundball rate, at 40 percent, is a little uncomfortably high. 梅子只能期待Murphy跟Keith Hernandez一样变成平飞球魔人 (译按:20几年前的一垒) 或是Ike Davis忽然长大飞进大联盟一垒 至少Murphy现在击球率很好 相对弥补了他保送率低的状况 他也很会打二安 只可惜太常打出滚地 大概四成吧 Meanwhile, Davis had a nice spring training before being sent back down to the minors for more seasoning. However, he doesn't project to be a huge power threat—the consensus seems to be an upside best of around 25 home runs in a full season at peak age. Maybe, maybe he'll out-project and hit more one day, but probably not, and almost certainly not this season. 被送回2A前 Davis在春训中表现良好 可惜的是他不太可能是个大支佬 一般认为他顶多长到25+ 不过也许 也许他的炮瓦会忽然长出来 虽然本季不太可能... All this means that if the middle of the order batters are on base, the bottom of order is going to struggle driving them in. With three from among Castillo, Murphy, Francoeur and Barajas/Blanco at the bottom of the batting order, there won't be many repercussions from walking the fifth spot. And that's when the full lineup is healthy. With Murhpy now injured, the opening day lineup could look like: Pagan, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Francoeur, Jacobs, Cora and Barajas. 总合以上 今年的中心打线上垒时 後段棒次会让球迷不太舒服 Castillo, Murphy, Francoeur 跟 Barajas/Blanco四取三的後段棒次 应该是打不出什麽东西 而上述打线还得要全员健康才行 现在Murphy受伤 开幕战大概长这样:Pagan, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Francoeur, Jacobs, Cora and Barajas...像话吗? 3. Will the starting pitching drive Mets fans to the bottle? 3. 先发们会不会让球迷想砸东西? Johan Santana's coming back from elbow surgery but should be fine. Pray that he is because the other starters can give ulcers. Everybody's wondering if Mike Pelfrey is going to fulfill the potential that he kind of flashed in 2008. He's a riddle but he's now the team's No. 2. 勇汉快要从肘伤回来了 祈祷他恢复良好 因为其他人会让你胃溃疡 大家都在想Mike Pelfrey能不能长到大家的期待 如同他08年曾表现的那样 他是个谜 他是我们的二号.... Behind him are John Maine and Oliver Perez, both youngish guys who've actually pitched better seasons than Pelfrey. But right now, they're even bigger enigmas. 後面的John Maine跟Oliver Perez都曾投的比Pelfrey好 不过现在他们比Pelfrey更谜.... Perez's Jekyll and Hyde routine is well known and he's shown no sign of righting himself this spring. Maine is a more recent member of the asylum. Last year, even when healthy, he was hugely inconsistent. In no start did he go more than seven innings. Out of his 15 starts, he gave up at least five runs five times, but also gave up fewer than two runs in seven starts. Both on the mound and off, he rarely seems to be happy with the way he pitches. 大家都知道Perez的 "Jekyll and Hyde routine"(译按:不好意思只查到那是个音乐剧) 而看来今年春天这玩意没有让他特别进入状况 Maine则是个龙发堂堂主 他大起大落的表现:没一次先发撑超过七局 15次先发中 有5次掉超过五分 但也有7次只掉2分以下而已 但Maine不管在场上场下看起来都不喜欢自己投球的样子... All this means that Jonathon Niese, who just a week ago was still battling for a spot on the major league roster, is now being fitted for the third spot in the rotation (not that the order of the rotation is all that important). Niese might actually be able to deliver on that spot, though he might also struggle, much as Pelfrey did (and still does). Maine and, especially, Perez, have the talent to be middle of the rotation pitchers. So, as an upside, the team might have an above average rotation behind Santana. More likely, though, is that team gets subpar contributions from at least one, probably two or three and possibly all four pitchers. 上述代表着Jonathon Niese 一个上星期还在为进入轮值努力的咖 可能会成为三号... (这不代表轮值顺序有多重要) 他大概能表现还行 但也可能很挣扎 就跟Pelfrey一样 Maine跟Perez都有不错的天份 是中段轮值的等级 所以从好的一面来说 山大王之後 梅子拥有全中段等级的後段轮值 但不好的那面则是 山大王以外 恐怕无法都真正投出像样的成绩 4. "Should I buy my playoff tickets yet?" 4. 我该先预购季後赛门票吗? (译按:幽默) Um, no. If this were the NHL or NBA, where eight teams from each league get into the postseason, then maybe. 呃 还是别吧 我们又不像NHL或NBA那样一半的球队都能进季後....(译按:中肯) The management and even some members of the media would have us focus on what MIGHT happen. Certainly, the Mets might make the playoffs; odder things have happened. They have a quartet of players, who, if healthy, offer a more than solid foundation to build a playoff or even championship team. Adding Bay into that mix does not hurt. 球队管理阶层跟媒体希望我们怀抱希望 当然梅子是有希望啦 奇蹟总是有可能发生 至少梅子有四五个球员健康的时候有季後赛甚至是冠军队等级 再加一个贝总是更有机会 But the Mets aren't likely to make the playoffs. I can think of at least as many scenarios that would have them finish below .500 as above it: Beltran doesn't make it back as or when expected. Same for Reyes. Wright's power doesn't return to normal. All would be mortal blows to the season. These are just the things that went wrong last season that have to revert to normal; it doesn't count the things that could go wrong this year that were normal last year—like, say, if Francisco Rodriguez gets injured. 但梅子不太可能进的 我可以想像很多梅子破不了五成的状态: 川哥或Reyes回不来 Wright炮瓦一去不返 这些都会让梅子爆炸 这些不过是去年的降头而已 要是今年再被钉草人.....K-Rod受伤之类的.... And that's just to make it above 81 wins. To get into the playoffs, the Mets'll probably need 14-15 wins from at least one of their non-Santana pitchers and at least 10-11 from still two more. They'll need one and more likely two among Castillo, Francoeur and Murphy to be positive offensively. And the rest of the bullpen will need to be helpful as well. Basic probability tells us that it is very unlikely that enough of these come true for the Mets to put champagne on ice. 而即使都没人受伤 也不过代表破五成而已 要进季後赛代表除了山大王以外 有个先发要拿14~15胜 而另两个要拿10~11胜 梅子需要打线的暴走支援 比如卡司题 粉库或是 Murphy 同时牛棚也不能出太多包 基本的机率计算告诉我们上述很难同时为真 开香槟实在只是个梦.... 5. When will Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel get their first unemployment checks? 5. Omar Minaya跟Jerry Manuel什麽时候会拿到失业给付? Of course, it'll all depend on the team's performance. But chances are they are fired when it becomes clear that the team isn't playoff bound, and deservedly so. Manuel seems to have no vision for the team, no theory on baseball to be held and hold himself accountable to. He's a dabbler who repeats his past mistakes and abandons experiments whimsically. 当然这得看球队的表现 但只要确定不会进季後赛 他们就得开始找第二春了 当然 这是他们应得的 Manuel一点远见也没有 半瓶水又不停幽默地重蹈覆辙 Minaya seems to have marginally more focus. Of course, the contracts he's given to Castillo and Perez are disasters that have handcuffed the team. He's shown himself capable of signing other, more productive talent as long as he pays top dollar. His trade for Santana has worked out well. Minaya则勉强知道重点 当然他给卡司题跟Perez的合约很幽默 但至少他能签下一些像样的合约 之前的山塔那交易还不赖啦 It is usual PR shtick to focus on possibilities, instead of probabilities when talking with the media—like how Francoeur might maintain the production he gave the team for half a season last year. The problem is that Minaya might be drinking his own Kool-Aid; he buys into the upside too much. And his little head-scratchers start to add up. Why did he trade for J.J. Putz without giving him a physical? Why did he chase Heath Bell out of town? Why sign Alex Cora to (effectively) a two-year, $2 million per year contract? Why sign Cora, or any backup shortstop, that you're uncomfortable playing if Reyes starts the season on the DL, especially when Reyes spent much of last season on the DL? Why give up anything for Matthews? 贩子用点花招碰碰运气是正常的 但对媒体放话碰运气--像期待粉库能很有建设性那样... Minaya是喝多了还是怎样? 他总是抱持太好的期待 又相信小恶魔的呢喃 怎麽能换来丁丁扑雌却不体检? 怎麽能赶走Heath Bell? 干什麽秒签Cora 还两年二M!? 明知道Reyes一定会进DL 干什麽签一个你不愿意放上场的备用游击?(就是说Cora!) 干什麽换一个GMJ? 给他两袋球都嫌多勒!!! Minaya seems to value intangible, unquantifiable traits. The nice thing about them from an executive's perspective is that it is hard to be held accountable for misreading them. Perhaps there are some intangibles that are genuinely valuable, but if so, Minaya's hoarding of them hasn't been reflected in the team's performance (has any team been less "clutch" in the past three or four years?). Minaya选人似乎在选无形无法量化的特质 对经理来说 至少没人能怪他看错这些部分 也许这些东西在某个角度来说很重要 但要是那真的很重要 干什麽这些人卖不掉又打不出个鸟来? (还有哪队三四年来比梅子更打不出关键一击的??) If there were any justice for the fans, the owners—the Wilpons—would be fired as well. I doubt that Minaya would've done better unfettered, but it is pretty clear that Jeff Wilpon was not helpful either—tales of how he was caught up in the Rasputin-like influence of the assistant GM, Tony Bernazard, seem telling. The Mets owners seem to remove problems only when the fans start to blame the ownership for them; they're never out in front of the problem. 如果有天理的话 老板们-Wilpon家族 也该被砍掉 虽然我不觉得Minaya没了老板会更好 但很明显Jeff Wilpon什麽都没做-从他们的助理GM Tony Bernazard那副太监样可见一斑 梅子老板只在球迷暴走时出来一下 但他们根本没有解决问题 If/when Minaya and Manuel are fired, the essential thing for the team is that the Wilpons (particularly Jeff Wilpon if he's calling the shots now) ask themselves some tough questions: "Do I (Jeff) have enough knowledge of business to help run operations at all? Do I have enough knowledge of baseball to give input on personnel decisions?" 要是Minaya跟Manuel被火之後 梅子的重点在Wilpon家族(特别是主导的Jeff Wilpon) 能不能意识到几个大问题:我到底懂不懂经营?懂不懂棒球?我到底凭什麽介入球队运作? The team, despite its Bernie Madoff woes, will have more resources than most other teams. With any luck, the Wilpons will hire a management team that understands management and baseball, a team that uses its experiences to learn from its mistakes, uses statistics and scouting properly to inform decisions and doesn't reverse-engineer rationals for actions. Then maybe the Wilpons can start thinking of putting some champagne on ice. 这支球队 假使除去他像是诈骗集团一样的大问题(译按:我不知道怎麽翻这个典故) 拥有比大部分球队更多的资源 假使奇蹟似的 Wilpon家族雇了个像样的管理团队 让梅子从过去的错误中学习 适当运用数据跟球探报告下决定 不要让爽感引导理性 那麽也许Wilpon家族可以开始冰香槟了 Jonathan Halket is an economist in New York. 作者是纽约的经济学家 --

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