Are Mets Prospects Overhyped? 大都会的新秀有被高估(过度宣传)吗? Scribbled by: Mike Newman @ 2:15 am | Filed under: Articles, Mets Minors Let’s start by taking Mets fans off of the defensive by acknowledging Mets prospects are certainly not the most overhyped in major league baseball. However, the hype machine does seem to work overtime for the Mets, often making it difficult for die-hard Mets fans to recognize where their prospects fit into the big picture. 让我们先透过确认,大都会的新秀很明显的并不是大联盟中最被过度宣传的开始, 来让大都会的球迷们放下戒心. (他XD..连巷口卖面的都知道有个牛奶弟和大弟,老子和F-Mart兄勒..还有Murphy...) 尽管如此, 宣传的机器确实是有替大都会过度工作的迹象, 让那些死忠的大都会球迷们 很困难的去认识到底他们的新秀们在球队蓝图中的适当位置. In my time writing for MetsGeek, I’ve seen a number of posters throw out trades like Bobby Parnell and Eddie Kunz for Jake Peavy while labeling prospects like Jon Niese and Daniel Murphy untouchable. While I appreciate the fervor in which Mets fans support their team, I sometimes wonder how certain prospects become so overvalued in the eyes of their fans. 在我替MetsGeek写作的时间里, 我曾看过不少类似用Bobby Parnell和Eddie Kunz去换 Jake Peavy(...你当人家的Fair Trade坏了),同时确保Jon Niese和Daniel Murphy之类的 新秀是不可动的文.当然我非常的感激这些大都会球迷如此的热情的支持着这支球队, 我也时时在想到是怎麽样才会让某几位的新秀在球迷的眼中尽然是如此的被高估. When assessing the potential for players being overhyped, one often needs to look no further than the size of the media market. A sub category of this is how many teams are in a particular city and where each ranks in popularity. Additionally, organizational success breeds fan support and is another contributing factor. Based on this, my top five organizations in terms of potential for hype are: 1. New York Yankees 2. Los Angeles Dodgers 3. Boston Red Sox 4. New York Mets 5. Chicago Cubs 当评估球员被高估的潜在机会时,一个时常被参考不外乎的就媒体市场的大小, 而其下的分类则是有多少个球队在一个特定的城市中还有他们受欢迎程度的排名. 除此之外,球团成功的培植球迷支持也是另外一个有所贡献的因素. 基於以上的,我心目中前五名过度高估球员的排名是: 1.纽约洋基队(毫无疑问...XD) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(这在我心目中是很大的一段距离... 不是排个名解决的了的) 2.洛杉矶道奇队(恩....老实说也都打得不错呀..) 3.波士顿红袜(Lester...Pedoria..Lowrie..Pelpobon..Ellsubury..Masterson.. 拜托他们上大联盟而且打得不错的可多了...) 4.New York Mets(...拜托老子是真货..I'll Show You) 5.Chicago Cubs(...恩....) These organizations have the largest fan bases and therefore garner the most significant media attention. For those of you who read prospect chats, the following should be all too familiar: 这些球团有着最大的球迷基础也因此获得了最多的媒体关注. 对那些会去看关於新秀 们的闲谈的人,以下的对话应该满熟悉的: Host: Welcome to the chat. Fire away! NYFan1: Who is the top prospect in the Mets organization? Host: Fernando Martinez or Wilmer Flores SoxFan: Is Michael Almanzar better than Wilmer Flores? Host: No. DodgerBlue: Is Kershaw the top young pitcher in baseball? Host: Yes. Better than Price! YanksH8R: F-Mart or Austin Jackson? Host: F-Mart MetsKing: Is Jon Niese going to be in the Mets ro? Host: Maybe, if they don’t sign anybody. GoYanks: Is Ian Kennedy going to be in the Yanks ro? Host: Aceves has jumped him on the depth chart. Lonely Royal: What is Mike Montgomery’s ceiling? Host: Solid #2. Stock has risen. 主持人:欢迎来聊聊. 开火啦! NYFan1:谁是大都会农场中的最佳新秀? 主持人:Fernando Martinez 或着是 Wilmer Flores(明年就只剩我一个了) SoxFan: Michael Almanzar 有比 Wilmer Flores好吗(..拜托这种问题用xx想都知道) 主持人:当然没有!(废话!算你识相) DodgerBlue:Kershaw是最棒的年轻投手吗? Host:是的. 比Price更好!(看...不管Price..你把Lincecum放哪了) YanksH8R:那F-Mart和Austin Jackson?(拜托你的膝盖是干嘛用的) Host:F-Mart(恩.....) MetsKing:Jon Niese明年会出现在大都会的先发轮值内吗 Host:有可能.如果他们谁都没签的话.(你想有可能吗...) GoYanks:Ian Kennedy会出现在洋基明年的先发轮值吗? Host:Aceves在球员深度表上都在跳到他上面啦 Lonely Royal:Montgomery的极限大概在哪呀(这ID用有够机掰到...孤独的皇家) Host:一个不错的2号,他的价值提升了. With the sheer number of fans from the big market franchises, they tend to dominate the conversation with a number of very similar questions asked different ways. Hosts even make comments about how often the same question is asked in the hope fans will get the point. With the conversation driven in ways similar to the chat above, it’s only natural for prospects from major media markets to rise in name recognition. That name recognition leads to hype when the players output does not equal the buzz surrounding them. 那些大市场球团的球迷拥有着大部分的数量,他们几乎掌控了整个谈话过程, 用着不同的方式,询问着极其相似的问题.主持人甚至替一个相同的问题被反覆的问了 多少次,去做了注解,希望球迷能抓住重点.但那些和上述相似的对话被反覆的带入. 这非常自然的,那些来自主要媒体市场的新秀,他们的知名度提高.这份知名度带来的是 高估和球员所表现出的无法和那些围绕在他身旁得期待相等. Bobby Parnell is a perfect example of this. I’ve seen his name on many Mets fans top five prospect lists and his name comes up frequently on prospect chats. Meanwhile, his 4.62 ERA, middling strikeout totals and more than a hit per inning allowed are the epitome of average. Bobby Parnell是个完美的例子.我曾经看过许多大都会的球迷将它摆在最佳新秀的 前五名,然後他的名字常常在闲聊中被提及.同时,他却有着4.62的ERA,和中等的三振数, 和每局被打超过一支的安打,正是平均的缩影呀. The media also plays a huge role in they hype machine. A poster on MetsGeek was correct in bashing the media for their impatience with Mets prospects. The question I ask is where does the impatience come from? My answer would be from prospects being mentioned so many times starting at a young age that they are expected to produce MVP or Cy Young type numbers from day one. This is especially dangerous since I doubt reporters covering the Mets have the prospect knowledge of many well read Mets bloggers and fans. When time to research prospects is limited due to commitments to writing about the big club, writers tend to focus too much on raw numbers which can create a warped view of the prospects’ true value (see Mike Carp). 媒体在过度宣传的机械上球员上扮演着巨大的角色.一份MetsGeek上的文在斥责媒体 对於大都会新秀们的缺乏耐心上是正确的.但我的问题是那些人的不耐是出自何处? 我的答案是它们期待那些它们每每提及的年轻新秀们,要从第一天开始就产出MVP或 Cy Young等级的表现.这是非常的危险,特别是我打赌那些负责报导大都会的记者们有着 那些认真阅读报导的大都会部落客和球迷对於新秀的相关知识.当谈到研究新秀时, 被局限在只受到委托去写关於大球团的新秀们.作家们变得太专注於那些会造成一个扭曲 新秀真正价值的原始数据.(看看Mike Carp................) I’m confident Lastings Milledge will be an All-Star-caliber player before all is said and done. In all honestly, 2008 should have been his rookie season. Had it been, he would have finished in the top-five in rookie of the year balloting and would be entering 2009 as the new toast of New York and the best home-grown African-American player since Straw and Doc. Instead, he’ ll be a cornerstone in the Nationals’ rise to respectability after being dealt for a song as a fall guy for the Mets 2007 collapse. 我很有信心Lasting Milledge会变成一个有着全明星级实力的选手,在这一切发生之前 (冏...........................) 老实说,2008才该是他的新人球季.假如是这样的话,它会结束在ROY的投票前五名,然後 会以纽约的新火红人物的身分进入2009,同时也是自从Straw和Doc後最棒的土生土长 非裔球员.被当成在2007年时在大都会季末崩盘的失败者的他,反而将会成为国民的基石, 获得尊敬. As an aspiring writer and blogger, I find myself a guilty party in making the hype machine worse, not better. On Baseball Handyman, 25 of 86 posts are about the Mets and Yankees. An additional 11 feature the Braves, another franchise whose prospects sometimes receive undue hype (think Kyle Davies). Meanwhile, I have made just one mention of the Nationals, Indians, and Mariners. 生为一个有抱负的作家和部落客. 我是有罪的,让宣传的机器更差,而不是更好. 在BaseBall Handyman上, 86个中的25个文是有关於大都会和洋基的.另外在加上11个 勇士的.其他的球团的新秀时常受到不适当的宣传.(想想Kyle Davies). 同时,我只有一次提到关於国民,印地安人和水手. With that said, I guess prospect hype is cyclical. Writers want readers so they write about franchises who have the most fans. Fans obviously want to discuss their own players so they ask questions about their teams prospects. The teams with the most fans has the most questions asked and the cycle repeats. 因为这样,我猜新秀的宣传是有周期性的的.作家需要读者,所以他们写那些有着最多球迷 的球团的新秀们.球迷们明显的希望讨论那些它们所支持的球队的新秀,所以他们问关於 他们的问题,有着最多球迷的球队有着最多的问题,然後一直反覆着这个循环. What Mets fans can do is look at their own prospects with the understanding their opinion of a player is likely 10-20% more generous than a non-fan’s would be. This will help temper expectations and keep perceived trade values in the realm of realistic. It will also help many a Mets fan keep from sounding silly the next time the temptation to offer up Bobby Parnell/Mike Carp/Josh Thole for B.J. Upton around the water cooler gets them laughed out of the building. 大都会球迷们可以做的是,看着他们自家的新秀.然後理解对於这些球员的评价,和一个 非大都会球迷的人比起来,有着10%~20%的友善.这有助於调整期待和保持自己在 现实世界里面去理解球员的交易价值. (电动打太多或收集公仔成性可不是不只是国内的通病) 这也同时会帮助许多大都会的球迷不再次的去提及试着用 Bobby Parnell/Mike Carp/Josh Thole去换B.J.Upton时叫他闭嘴,然後笑到他无地自容. (...这成了我以後改拜Omar Minaya...) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 好险这个问题目前在台湾好像还不严重...只有隔壁的兄弟有这困扰... 我想人气平均是5人以下的板通常没这困扰...XD 我在连考三科必修後极度缺乏睡眠的情况下翻的... 有错请多多见谅 --

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