课程名称︰ 总体经济学二 课程性质︰ 必修 课程教师︰ 梁明义 开课学院： 社会科学院 开课系所︰ 经济系 考试日期（年月日）︰ 2014年4月14日 考试时限（分钟）： 9:25 ~ 11:40 (延长时间至 12:05) 是否需发放奖励金： 是 （如未明确表示，则不予发放） 试题 : 1.(20%) (a)(5%) 试说明 demand inflation 与 adjustment loops 的概念。这样的 abstract theory 对实际世界现象有怎样的「启示」？请务必以图形辅助您的说明。 (b)(5%) 说明 Forward-Looking, Backward-Looking, and Adaptive Expectations。 为何 Gordon 认为 forward-looking expectations 不太「实用」？ Suppose that natural real GDP is constant. For every 1% increase in the rate of inflation above its expected level, firms are willing to increase real GDP by 2.5%. The output ratio is initially 100 and the inflation rate equals to 1.5%. Then an adverse supply shock raises the infaltion rate associated with every output ratio by 3.5 percentage point. (c)(5%) Supply shock 发生後，课本提及政府有三种可能对策。试说明并算出在这三种 不同对策下 x, p, y 与 (Y/Y^N) 各是多少？请在 SP-LP 图上点出这三种政策 的位置。 (d)(5%) Explain why inflation was low in the late 1990s in the United States and why it rose between 2002 and 2006。并说明 2002-2006 的通货膨胀与 1970 年代两次能源危机所引起的通货膨胀的「异同」。 2.(20%) (a)(6%) 长期来看，monetary growth 是 inflation 会发生的「必要条件」。如果央行 「关心」inflation，一定「能够」控制 monetary growth 来阻止 inflation 发生。为何权世界各国还是有 inflation 发生？为何这些央行会容许 excessive monetary growth？ (b)(5%) 何谓 seignorage？这个观念对实际世界问题有怎样的「启示」？Suppose that the amounts of real high-powered money，H/P，equals 2,100，and real government bonds，B/P，equals 3,500。The rate of inflation equals 2% and the nominal interest rate equals 3.5%。What is the amount of seignorate？What is the real interest rate？What is the real interest on bonds？ (c)(5%) 说明 structural unemployment 与 search unemployment 的不同？依 Gordon 说法，哪一种是 "socially valuable, productive activity"？ (d)(4%) 为何 2008 金融风暴发生，德国失业率上升没有像美国那麽严重？这样的不同 对美国与德国在这段期间的 productivity growth 有怎样的 implications？ 3.(25%) Harrod 是 Keynes 的学生。Keynes (1936) 提出一个「Static model of income and employment determination」，Harrod (1946) 则提出一个「dynamic model of income and employment growth paths」。 (a)(10%) 试从模型的「具体内容」、「动态调整过程假设」、与所要表达的「信息」三 方面来比较说明 Harrod 与 Solow dynamic models 的异同。在您的说明中务 必要提及下列观念在这个理论发展过程中所扮演的角色：warranted rate of growth, natural rate of growth 与 knife-edge growth。 Consider an economy characterized by the following production function： Y = A * K^(1/3) * N^(2/3) 且假定 s = 0.05，n = 0.01，d = 0.09，A = 2。以上英文字母所代表着与课堂上使 用者相同。 (b)(7%) 试问在 steady-state growth 下，capital-labor ratio 与 per capita output 各为多少？Y 与 K 的成长率各为多少？现假定储蓄率上升为 s = 0.20 ，在新的 steady-state growth 下，capital-labor ratio 与 per capita output 各为多少？Y 与 K 的成长率各为多少？ (c)(8%) What is the "Solow Residual"? What is endogenous growth theory and what puzzles associated with the Solow growth model does it attempt to resolve? 4.(20%) (a)(5%) Does the empirical evidence validate the predictions of the Solow model regarding convergence? (b)(5%) What role does Prfessor Jeffrey Sachs suggest geography plays in explaining the growth performance of poor countries? (c)(5%) 美国在 1970 到 1995 年期间，很明显有 Productivity Growth Slowdown。 试问学者们提出哪些原因来解释这个 slowdown？ (d)(5%) 说明 the "Solow paradox" 与 the "delay hypothesis"。这两个论点与美国 在 1995-2004 的 Productivity Growth Revival 有怎样的关联？ 5.(15%) (a)(5%) 何谓 the money multiplier？Suppose the ratio of deposits that banks hold in the form of reserves is 10%；suppose further that people want to hold 5% of their deposits in the form of cash。Then, if the Fed wants the money supply to be $6,370 billion, what is the necessary level of high-powered money？ (b)(10%) Keynes 在 1930 年代大恐慌时强调 fiscal policy。美国从 1970 年代初起 开始， "monetary policy emerged as the major tool of stabilization policy... In constract fiscal policy was rarely used for stabilization purposes until the Global Economic Crisis struck in 2007-2008. The talbes turned as a result of the Crisis." 综合课本与 课堂讲解，你觉得为何货币与财政政策的角色会有如此的对换变动？ --

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