Beware of Early Season Phonies! 原文：http://bit.ly/SCrZhI By Jim Feist(吉姆‧费斯特) 翻译：http://bit.ly/PWiNqJ By 黄金猎犬 So...are we all set for the Texans/Chargers AFC Championship game? Because after just two weeks, those were the only two undefeated teams in the AFC. After three weeks the NFC had only two unbeatens, as well, the Falcons and Cardinals. Did anyone pick a Cardinals/Chargers Super Bowl? The Cardinals haven't on anybody's radar to win the NFC. Yet, there they were at the end of September among the NFL elite in the standings. 我们都准备好观赏德州人跟电光人争夺美联冠军了吗？因为经过2周之後，美国联会 只有这2支球队没输过。经过3周之後，国联也只有2支球队没输过，分别是猎鹰与 红雀。但有任何人认为红雀或电光人能拿到超级盃吗？红雀甚至不被人认定能拿到 国联的冠军！但9月结束时，他们的战绩并列在联盟首位。 I bring this up to emphasis the importance of patience. A hot start is nice but guarantees nothing. Scheduling, injuries, personnel changes are all significant factors in the success of a football team, and a hot start doesn't mean that a team is great, just as a cold start doesn't mean a club is out of it. 我提起这些，只是想强调耐心的重要性。火热的开季表现固然很好，但并不保证整季 都一样好。赛程、伤兵、人员更迭等，在在都会影响球队的成功与否。开季打得好 并不代表他就是支强队，同样地，开季打得差也不等於今年就没希望。 This happens all the time. Scheduling can hurt a team out of the gate, as can injuries. A year ago the Bears started 7-3 before losing QB Jay Cutler and their top running back and finished 8-8. Speaking of playing .500 football that's what the Giants were late last season before getting hot at the right time and winning their second Super Bowl in four years. 同样的事情重复地发生，赛程的安排可以让任何一支球队被扫地出门，伤兵同样也是。 一年前熊队在失去四分卫卡特勒(Jay Cutler)前，战绩是7胜3败，而最後却以8胜8败 作收。说到5成胜率，巨人上一季就是在球季结束之前开始加温，最後抱回了他们4年 内的第2座超级盃。 Basketball guru Red Auerbach used to say, "It's not the five who start, it's the five who finish." We saw that two years ago, too, as the Green Bay Packers were fortunate to stumble into the playoffs on the final day of the season, then went on a red-hot roll on the way to winning the whole thing. NBA传奇教练红头奥贝克(Red Auerbach)总是说，「重要的不是哪五人先发，重要的是 哪五人结束比赛。」在两年前我们也看过一次，包装工在球季的最後一天，幸运的进入 了季後赛，接下来一路赢得冠军。 Two years ago at this time the Bears and Chiefs were two of the remaining three unbeaten teams. They made the playoffs, but the Chiefs were one-and- done while the Bears fell short in the NFC title game. The Chiefs had been 85-to-1 to win the Super Bowl that season. 两年前的这个时候，熊队与酋长是联盟3支不败球队中的2支，他们成功的进入季後赛， 但酋长第一场就被淘汰，而熊队则在国联冠军战中落败。酋长当季获得超级盃的赔率是 1赔85。 Sure, in 2009 the eventual Super Bowl participants, the Colts and Saints, had red-hot starts, both not far from 16-0 regular seasons. 2009年超级盃的争夺者小马与圣徒，的确从季初状况就不错，两队都离全胜纪录不远。 Yet, four years ago as late last Xmas the Cardinals were an 8-7 team and had just gotten thrashed at New England, 47-7. No one was talking about Arizona as Super Bowl material, but a month later, there they were. 然而，4年前的圣诞节，红雀战绩只有8胜7败，而且他们以47比7惨败给爱国者，没有人 认为他们能够参与超级盃赛事，但一个月後，他们做到了。 Naturally, a team doesn't want to start 0-3 like this year's Chiefs, Colts, Dolphins, but a poor start isn't a death knell. You may recall that seven years ago the Panthers started 1-2, but ended up in the NFC Title game. 没有队伍希望以0胜3败开局，就像今年的酋长、小马、海豚一样。但开季表现不好， 并不代表直接被判死刑，记得7年前，黑豹开季1胜2败，但後来他们夺得国联冠军。 A poor start makes it tough as there are only 16 games and few teams even qualify for the postseason. On the other hand, a hot start isn't mandatory. In 2003, the Eagles looked terrible during a 0-2 SU/ATS start just before their bye week. That team then went 11-3 against the spread the rest of the regular season, winning 13 of their next 15 games on the way to the NFC Championship game. The Patriots started 2-2 in 2003, then proceeded to go 15-0 SU, 12-3 ATS on the way to winning the Super Bowl. 开季打得差，只是会让球队接下来打得更辛苦而已，因为整季只有16场比赛，季後赛 名额又少，但相对地，一开始打得很好也并不代表从此就一帆风顺。在2003年球季， 老鹰开季0胜2败，第3周休兵，休息过後，老鹰在剩余的15场比赛中赢了13场，并一路 杀进国联冠军赛。同年爱国者以2胜2败开局，接下来15战全胜，最後赢得超级盃。 If you think a good start is important, remember the 2003 Vikings. The boys in purple started 6-0 SU/ATS, only to fold, missing the playoffs during a 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS finish. Miami also started 4-1 SU/ATS that season, only to go 3-8 against the spread and miss the playoffs. In 2009 the Broncos started 6-0 SU/ATS, then went 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS to miss the postseason. 如果你认为火热的开局很重要的话，让我们来看看2003年的维京人。他们开季战绩6胜 0败，但接下来战绩3胜7败，连季後赛都进不去。同年海豚也打出4胜1败的开局成绩， 但之後同样错过季後赛。2009年野马开季6连胜，紧接着是惨不忍睹的2胜8败，无缘 进入季後赛。 It's a marathon and all kinds of things can crop up to derail a potential playoff run: Poor defense, injuries, bad luck, even scheduling, or bad chemistry. The Chiefs were the hottest team in the NFL the first half of the 2003 season, starting 9-0 SU and 8-1 against the number. There even was a future's bet offered on whether the Chiefs would run the regular season table undefeated. That wager didn't last long as Kansas City finished 4-4 straight up and 2-6 against the spread after that 9-0 start NFL赛季是场马拉松赛跑，期间有太多因素会影响球队表现，诸如：伤兵、防守变差、 运气不好等等，甚至赛程安排或是球队的磨合不顺利。酋长在2003年上半季是联盟最 火热的球队，战绩9胜0败，庄家甚至为他们开出当年能否拿下16战全胜的赌盘。不过 好景不常，接下来他们只拿到4胜4败。 The same thing happened with the 2005 13-0 Colts. When the AFC Championship game was being played, the Colts were home watching it on TV. 同样的情形也发生在2005年球季的小马身上，小马开季13连胜，但当美联冠军赛开打 时，小马队员是坐在家里的电视机前观看这场比赛。 Can the Giants repeat? The last time they were the defending champion the Giants started a sizzling 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS in 2008, but finished 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS, failing to win a playoff game. That was somewhat reminiscent of the 2003 Giants, who started 2-1 SU/ATS, then limped to a 2-11 SU finish while going 1-11-1 against the number. 巨人能够复制去年的成功吗？上一次当他们要卫冕冠军的时候，在2008年开季打出了 11胜1败，但接下来只拿到1胜4败的成绩，未能赢得任何一场季後赛。这也让人回想起 2003年巨人开季2胜1败，接下来却是可悲的2胜11败。 If your team is off to a disappointing start, relax; and if your team is off to a hot start, don’t start making preparations for the playoffs. It's not the fastest horse out of the gate, but the one who crosses the finish line (just as Tom Coughlin and his two Super Bowl rings). 如果你支持的球队开季令人失望，请不要紧张；而如果你支持的球队有个火热的开局， 也不要提早就开始准备抢购季後赛门票。最快冲出栅门的马并不能代表甚麽，只有第一 匹通过终点线的马才是赢家，就像巨人队的总教练考夫林(Tom Coughlin)跟他所拿下的 两座超级盃一样。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 心得：不过如果你喜欢的球队开季4连败，是不是宁可把期待放在状元签， 心情才会比较好些呢？ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.166.202.203 感谢提醒 已修正 ※ 编辑: sampsonlu919 来自: 118.166.202.203 (10/03 22:58)