课程名称： 外交决策分析 课程性质： 必修 课程范围： 开课教师： 黄奎博 开课学院： 国际事务 开课系级： 外交三 考试日期(年月日)： 2012/11/22 考试时限(Mins)： 110 Min 附注： Only international students can answer in English or Chinese 试题本文： I、选择题：24% 1.( ) which of the following statements doesn't fit in with G. Allison and P. Zelikow's rational actor model? 1. A decrease in the perceived costs of an alternative increases the likelihood of that action being chosen; 2. An increase in the perceived costs of an alternative reduces the likelihood of that action being chosen 3. The fundamental method employed is "vicarious problem solving"; 4. Action is chosen in response to the vested interest associated with administrative feasibility. 2.( ) which of the following statements about coalition decision making is inaccurate or inappropriate? 1. There can be some level of bargaining and leverage between relatively independent actors; 2. If no rules dictate that unanimity is reduced for the coalition to reach a decision, the coalition will tend toward the unit veto 3. The minimum-winning coalition is generally not interested in includin more parties than necessary 4. Alex Mintz thinks the Isreli Cabinet often provides a good example of the effect of political coalition on foreign policy decision making. 3.( ) Although in the months before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 U.N. weapon inspectors reported thatr they didn't find evidence of weapons of nass destruction in Iraq, the Bush administration tended to ignore the fact and still planned to invades Iraq. This can be best seen as a decision making bias of 1. preference over preference 2. turf battles 3. shooting from the hip 4. overestimation 4.( ) Which of the following statement has little to do with normative ration- ality? 1. Normative rationality starts with situation that requires a decision 2. The quality of the process is related to the quality of the decision 3. Leaders define the situation, establish their goals, investigate their options, weigh the consequence of their options, and make a decision that achieves the goal best and at the lowest cost 4. Normative rationality finishes with a decision 5.( ) Reasonable officals, faced with limited time and pushed by antagonistic group behavior, are forced to argue much more confidently than they would if they were detached judges. They internalize, often unconsciously, the demands made upon them by the game. This is called 1. The 51-49 principle 2. The where-you-stand-depends-on-where-you-sit mentality 3. the ad hoc principle 4. the catch 22 syndrome 6.( ) The selection of the first alternative that meets an acceptability (that is, that meets the condition for bounded rationality) is 1. cybernetic 2. satisficing 3. of polythink 4. utility maximization II、填空题：5% According to D. Kahneman and A. Tversky,____________ maintains that people are risk averse with respect to gains and risk-acceptant with respect to losses III、解释名词(四选三；概要说明)：21% 1. Action-channels 2. Groupthink 3. Framing effect in decision making 4. Poliheuristic decision making IV、申论题：50% 1. How has the rationality actor model applied to the study of international relations? Please answer this question by the two paradigms: classical realism and international institutionalism. (20%) 2. In G. Allison and P. Zelikow's Organization Behavior Model, what is the basic unit of analysis? (5%) Why do they contend that organizational implementation reflects previously established routines? (20%) How do they view long-range foreign policy planning, particularly in the United State? (5%) --

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