Offseason Notebook: Jefferson, Foye and Lakers point guards By Brian McKitish Special to ESPN.com 来源网址: http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/basketball/fba/story?page=nbanb803 重点:我不配色了，我是配色界的白痴。 I wrote a fantasy spin piece on the Kevin Garnett trade earlier in the week, but I want to elaborate more now that we've had a few days to let the news settle in. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that Al Jefferson is going to be a stud with his new club in Minnesota. Not only will he be ultra-motivated, but he'll also be looking to build on the momentum of his stellar second half last season. Just look at his numbers in the final few months last season: 19.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 0.7 steals while shooting 55.4 percent from the floor (but just 67.7 percent from the line). Really, there weren't too many big men who outproduced Big Al in the second half last season. He compared favorably to almost any name you want to throw out there. He matured in front of our eyes, and at just 22 years old, he'll only grow from here. The fact that he'll be the main scoring option in Minnesota and one of the only real forces on the boards makes him all the more attractive in fantasy leagues. There's only one thing that really concerns me here, and that's his weak free-throw percentage. Big Al will be looked to a lot on the offensive end this season, and that probably means he'll be going to the free-throw line more often. Opposing defenders will quickly learn that Jefferson is a force to be reckoned with, and with his quickness and wide array of post moves, I'm sure they'll be fouling him more often. Hopefully he can improve that aspect of his game over the summer, but I wouldn't expect anything higher than 69 percent from the line on the year. That said, for the kind of stats he is going to provide, I'll live with his poor free-throw percentage; there aren't many big guys that can hit their free throws anyway. 我先前就曾针对这笔交易写过一篇文章来讨论，但是到了今天，我想利用一些 新的讯息来继续讨论这笔交易带来的影响(从FB观点XD) 我越想越确定，欧!杰佛森今年一定会猛到不行，光是看他去年後半段的表现: 19.8分、11.2篮板、1.8火锅、0.7抄截还有55.4%的投篮命中率，虽然罚球很烂 只有67.7%而已，可是想想，联盟中也没有几个大个子可以拿出这种成绩了， 而且他才22岁，这孩子..还在长大啊!!，他会成为灰狼明年最重要的得分手段 明年一定要在FB选他一下啊~ 可是，我还是很担心他的罚球命中率，随着他得到的攻击机会增多，以他优异的 禁区身手、挡不住的活动范围，我想防守者会有更多时间宁愿送他上罚球线 而懒得陪他东转身西勾射的，希望他这段期间有好好改善他的罚球， 我想他应该会的，但是我觉得欧!杰佛森明年罚球应该不会高於69%， (也就是说才从67.7变成69，而且罚球次数又变多)，如果选他就要代表着罚球 成为你这队的问题，毕竟罚球准的大个子不多，你不是每次都有办法靠其他人 来挽救罚球，罚的又多又准的人也不是那麽多。 (结论:欧!杰佛森明年看好，但是他的罚球会很惨，因为他会罚的又多又不准，惨!) After his play impressive summer-league play in 2006, Randy Foye was scooped up as a sleeper in almost every fantasy league. Foye's rookie season, however, was a disappointing and frustrating experience for fantasy owners; he received inconsistent (and sometimes nonexistent) minutes throughout the year. Everyone knew he had the talent to produce, all he needed was the minutes. This year he'll get them, as the Wolves are clearly in rebuilding mode. So what kind of numbers can we expect from the former Villanova Wildcat? Foye started just 12 games in 2006-07, and in those games he averaged a solid, but unspectacular 12.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.4 3-pointers in 29.3 minutes per game. I think Foye can do better than that, especially since he'll be a full-time starter who will probably play at least 33 minutes per game. Add in the departure of KG, which will increase Foye's assists and points, and we have ourselves a very nice breakout candidate. My projections? I'm thinking something very similar to what Brandon Roy did last season. Let's say 15-16 points, 4-5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 3-pointers while shooting at least 84 percent from the line. Not too shabby, not too shabby at all. 由於06年夏季联盟的表现优异，大家对FOYE的表现都相当期待，但总结来说却是失望的 ，所以去年FB有选他的，应该都骂到不行吧，去年FOYE的上场时间相当不稳定， 有时候甚至没上场，每个人都知道FOYE很有天分，他需要的是时间来磨练， 今年，灰狼进入重建状态，FOYE的时间会相当多，那麽他到底会表现的多好呢? 去年仅有的12场先发球赛中，FOYE的表现是12.8分、4.4篮板、4.2助攻、0.9抄截 、每场1.4个三分球，平均上场29.3分钟，我想FOYE今年会表现的比这些数字更好 尤其当他成为一个固定的先发控球以後，可能每场最少可打33分钟，也可能KG离开的 效应而有更出色的演出(尤其助攻跟得分)，如果你们一定要问我的看法，唉 那我讲一下好了，我先给个暗示好了...噗你们等一下咩， 我想拓荒者的ROY可以拿来当参考，所以捏，我想应该有个十五、六分，四、五个助攻 篮板，1.1抄截，1.4三分球，罚球也应该不错，来个84%的准度应该不算过分的要求 ，这样的後卫不只是个廖化吧，科科。 (今年预估FOYE会在得分上大有长进，其他数据会小幅度上爬，可是这样的数据是 从12场变成82场喔!) Not that you aren't already aware, but the new Big Three in Boston will be quite formidable on the offensive end. As I said earlier in the week, three superstars on the same team can coexist fantasy-wise. There might be a slight drop-off in scoring for each player, but it will only be minor. I can't remember the last time a team had three 20-point scorers in the same season, but I think it will happen in Boston this year. Here's why: Not only do the Celtics have limited scoring options outside of the Big Three -- Rajon Rondo may be able to put up 10 points per game, but that's about it -- but opposing teams won't be able to double-team anyone. Boston's opposition will have to play defense straight up, which will be a problem for almost any team in the league. Garnett's passing skills in the post will open up shots for everyone, and that will lead to better-than-usual shooting percentages for both Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Allen and Pierce have one other thing going for them: they are so used to having the opponents' best defender draped all over them. That won't be the case this season; now opponents will have to choose whom to try to shut down on any given night. 虽然什麽都还不知道，但是波士顿的三枪牌一定会是比赛时相当强的进攻点(废话XD) 我曾经说过，同一队有三个王牌都很强的状况，大概只有FB才可能会发生，因为 三人行必有损失焉啊...不懂嘛?是说三个人会互相抢球，让彼此表现机会变少 虽然我已经不记得有哪队同时有三个人平均得分超过20分，但是我觉得明年的波士顿 很有可能会出现这种盛况。 我甚至这麽认为，波士顿虽然进攻多半由这三个人来执行，但是别忘这麽一来 敌人哪敢包夹其中一个呢?另外再想像一下:一但KG要位拿到球以後，凭他在灰狼 当大王多年而学来的纯熟传球技术，他可以随时把球传给任何有空挡的队友， 当RAY跟PAUL拿到球的时候，嘿嘿嘿，他们所面对的不是包夹、不是敌方最强悍的防守者 那得分不是更轻松嘛?我觉得不光是其他两枪，Rondo搞不好都有单场平均10分的实力。 (小结:波士顿的三枪不会造成互害，因为KG的分球观念太好了，又会分散对方的防守 ，我觉得东区的太阳队出现了XD) Quick Hits 快速安打 ‧ After the trade, the Celtics went out and signed Eddie House to help bolster their nonexistent bench. House will be a nice role player for the Celtics, helping to spell Allen and Rondo, but barring any injuries, he won't have any fantasy value. 交易後波士顿又签了House来撑住快要消失的板凳，House其实跑跑龙套还不错，但是 除非有人受伤，否则不要在FB选他。 ‧ The Miami Heat addressed their lack of point guard depth by signing free agent Smush Parker, formerly of the Los Angeles Lakers. I like Parker in Miami, but he will have to battle with Jason Williams for the starting point guard job. It's likely that the two will split time initially, and that, in turn, will hurt the value of both. Of the two, I like Parker's prospects a little better, and I think he earns more minutes (if only to try to keep J-Will healthy for most of the year). With that in mind, Parker should still be a decent fantasy role player as he'll likely average a steal and a three per game. 热火为了补足很缺的控球深度而找来了湖人的Parker，我很喜欢热火这个选择， Parker会跟J Will一起争夺先发控球的位置，或是两人各分享一半的时间 我比较建议选Paeker，因为J Will的健康也不是一天两天的事情了 Parker会是个在三分、抄截不错的FB选择 ‧ Parker's departure means that either Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar or Javaris Crittenton will take over as the starting point guard in Los Angeles. Crittenton is the future, but he's just a rookie, and I don't see playing too much in his first season. Farmar showed the ability to hit some 3s and create some steals in limited minutes last year, and he certainly has upside now that Parker is gone. Unfortunately, I think Fisher will be the starter from Day 1. He knows the system, and frankly, he's better than Farmar -- at least at this point in their careers. The last time Fisher entered the year as a starter was 2002-03 when he averaged 10.5 points, 3.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 1 3-pointers per game for the Lakers. Now that he's back and starting again, I could see him putting up somewhat similar numbers. 回头看湖人，现在有三个人可以是湖人的控球选择，我想JC应该是拿来养的，他只是 个一年生，Farmer去年在有限的时间内展现了他在抄截、三分的天分，可是，我想 这先发控球的位子应该是Fisher的，他对整个系统很了解，最後一年在湖人他缴出了 10.5分 3.6助攻 1.1抄截 每场1个三分球的成绩，我想他今年也会差不多就这成绩了。 ‧ Uh-oh. Chris Bosh is still feeling some pain in his right foot after battling with plantar fasciitis for most of last season. I'm not too worried yet -- he still has plenty of time to recover -- but the lingering pain is not a good sign. Especially given that Bosh has missed 12 games or more in each of the last two seasons. Let's keep an eye on this as the summer progresses. 欧耨(放?)，去年的脚伤还是让现在的Bosh觉得很痛，虽然我还不是很担心这点， 他还有很多时间去疗伤，但是怎漾，就是伤不好还是会让人不放心，尤其过去两年 他都因为此伤最少缺赛了12场，我们再继续观望吧 科科。 FB版快复活啊XD!!王建民明天要赢啊!! --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.131.66.110 ※ 编辑: JAY049 来自: 220.131.66.110 (08/08 04:28)