作者peterman167 (由藤毛)
看板MiamiHeat
标题Re: [外电] 历史站在马刺那边
时间Thu Jun 5 09:47:22 2014
※ 引述《zenwu (Orange Man)》之铭言：
: 这话题讨论这麽热烈 我也来参与一下吧
: 标题是 历史站在马刺这里
: 我的回答是 胜利站在热火这里
: 看这支球队将近20年的时间 有尖峰 也有谷底
: 但每次观看比赛 心理只会有一个期许
: "拿下这场该死的比赛吧"
: 篮球是圆的 历史是用来创造的
: White Hot Heat
: ※ 引述《kart (=\)》之铭言：
: : http://ppt.cc/OmiV
: : 原文很长我很懒，节录重点
: : 基本上算是客观历史数据文而已，先别太激动 @@
: : The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have reached the NBA Finals,
: : setting up a rematch of last year's classic seven-game battle.
: : With four days between the conclusion of the conference finals and
: : Game 1, now comes the real fun: predicting the outcome.
: : 还有四天才开打，太无聊，只好来做预测噜。
: : Predicting the NBA Finals is somewhat different from other playoff
: : series. First, there's more playoff data available -- three full
: : rounds against a variety of opponents, giving a better idea of
: : who's playing better right now. Second, because the teams have
: : played each other just twice during the regular season, there's
: : less head-to-head data to determine whether the matchup is good or
: : bad.
: : 预测冠军赛跟其他季後赛对手不同，原因有二：
: : 1. 季後赛资料多很多
: : 2. 两队每年也就打两次
: : So what has really mattered when picking the winner of past
: : Finals? And what does that say about this year's series? Let's
: : take a look.
: : 所以要如何着手呢？让我们看下去。
: : Matters: Regular-Season Records
: : 重要：季赛战绩
: : Ordinarily, statistical projections will start with point
: : differential. But when it comes to the NBA Finals, during the past
: : three decades, records have matched up better with results than
: : differential.
: : 过去30年来，季赛战绩成为一个不错的指标。
: : When the two teams were separated by three games or fewer during
: : the regular season, teams with home-court advantage have actually
: : been more likely to get upset than win the series, going 4-5. But
: : when they won at least six more games during the regular season,
: : they've gone a dominant 16-2, with 1995 (Houston over Orlando) and
: : 2006 (Miami over Dallas) the lone exceptions. That's bad news for
: : the Heat, who finished eight games behind the Spurs in the
: : standings.
: : 当两队战绩差在三场以下，基本上结果说明势均力敌。
: : 战绩优的一方甚至以4:5落後。
: : 然而如果战绩差别在6场以上，那就呈现一面倒了。
: : 战绩优的一方以16:2遥遥领先，唯二是95年的火箭和06年的热火。
: : 而今年热火战绩就差马刺达8场。
: : Doesn't Matter: Head-to-Head Results
: : 不重要的：对战成绩。
: : Against conference foes, there is predictive value to the
: : regular-season series between the two teams -- especially in the
: : opening round. That doesn't carry over to the NBA Finals. Two
: : games simply aren't enough to tell us much about how the teams
: : match up.
: : 在前三轮，对战成绩可以做一个不错的预测根据。
: : 但是冠军赛季赛只打两场，对战成绩无法说明太多。
: : Half of the past 30 Finalists have split the season series, as
: : Miami and San Antonio did this season. Though nine of the other 15
: : Finals were won by the team that swept the season series, that
: : doesn't provide much new information because most of those teams
: : had home-court advantage. The lower-seeded team has gone on to win
: : the Finals just once out of the four times it swept in the
: : regular season.
: : 过去30年，有15次对战是1:1。如同今年的火刺。
: : 季赛2:0者在剩下的15次里面也只有9:6，而且主因是大部份2:0的球队
: : 都有主场优势。四次没有主场优势但是季赛横扫对方的球队里只有一只
: : 拿到冠军。所以对战成绩能给我们知道的有限。
: : Matters: Playoff Performance
: : 重要：季後赛的表现。
: : It pays to be hot going into the Finals. When the lower-seeded
: : team had a better point differential during the first three rounds
: : of the playoffs, adjusted for schedule, the series is nearly a
: : toss-up -- the favorites win 57.1 percent of the time (8-6). When
: : the team with home court also has performed better during the
: : playoffs, however, they're a dominant 14-2 (87.5 percent), with
: : 1998 (Chicago over Utah, when the two teams were nearly even
: : leading up to the Finals) and 2006 (Miami over Dallas, again) the
: : exceptions.
: : 冠军赛战绩较差的一方，在之前季後赛却打得比较好时（以调整分差来看），
: : 即使是客场出发也能打出5-5波，14次里面反而能赢8次。
: : 反之，如果已经是战绩较优，季後赛前三轮又打得更优，
: : 那他们在冠军赛基本上是占尽优势（14-2)。
: : 唯一的例外是98年的公牛和06年的热火（again!）
: : The Heat (plus-7.0) and Spurs (plus-8.0) had similar average
: : margins en route to the Finals. However, San Antonio played a much
: : more difficult schedule in the competitive West. So San Antonio's
: : adjusted differential of plus-11.6 points per game is much better
: : than Miami's plus-8.1 mark.
: : 热火和马刺在季後赛前三轮的调整分差（算进对手强度）
: : 马刺以+11.6大胜热火的+8.1，
: : 加上马刺又有主场优势，热火堪虑。
: : Doesn't Matter: Games Played
: : 不重要：季後赛打了几场。
: : Because the Spurs went a full seven games in the first round, the
: : Heat have played three fewer games in the postseason. Turns out
: : that extra rest is not a factor in why playoff performance to date
: : matters in the Finals. In fact, favorites who have played more
: : games (like San Antonio) have actually tended to perform slightly
: : better than expected, possibly because it means they've faced more
: : challenging opposition.
: : 季後赛打得越多的球队虽然休息较少，但是其实在冠军赛表现还些微
: : 优於休息多的球队，但是从历史来看基本上是没影响。
: : Matters: Defensive Rating
: : 重要：防守。
: : Yes, defense wins championships -- as long as it is paired with a
: : good-enough offense to get to the Finals. The team with the better
: : defensive rating during the regular season has won 19 out of the
: : past 30 Finals, a figure that substantially understates its
: : importance. See, offense-first teams are more likely to have home
: : court in the Finals. When the better defensive team also has
: : home-court advantage, it has won 86.7 percent of the time (13-2).
: : And better defensive teams have frequently pulled upsets without
: : home court, going 6-9 (40 percent) in those series.
: : 冠军赛两队中，季赛防守就比较优的那队过去30年赢了19次。
: : 如果把主客场算进去，有主场优势季赛防守又优的球队在15次里面
: : 赢了13次。反之，季赛优却从客场出发的赢球翻盘率也不小15次能翻6次盘。
: : Again, the importance of defense favors the Spurs. They were the
: : better defense in the regular season, ranking fourth in points
: : allowed per 100 possessions; Miami finished 11th. The Heat would
: : be the first team to win the championship while finishing outside
: : the league's top 10 defenses since the 2001 Lakers (21st).
: : 马刺再一次站在历史这一边，防守优於热火，又有主场优势。
: : 更别提热火今年防守下滑，全联盟只有第11。
: : 事实上如果热火赢冠军，将会是从2001来第一个不靠防守赢球的冠军。
: : Unlike those Lakers, Miami hasn't yet shown the ability to turn on
: : its defense for extended stretches during the playoffs. The Heat
: : reached the Finals largely on the strength of their offense, which
: : dominated the league's No. 1 (Indiana) and No. 6 (Charlotte)
: : defenses. Miami scored 12.9 more points per 100 possessions during
: : the East playoffs than its opponents allowed during the regular
: : season (weighted by games played), but allowed them to score 2.8
: : more points per 100 possessions than usual.
: : 热火季後赛靠的是可怕的进攻和对手贫弱的进攻，而非加强防守。
: : 事实上在防守端热火季後赛的平均失分/100次球权还略逊季赛。
: : By contrast, San Antonio's playoff run has been incredibly
: : balanced. In fact, the Spurs have been slightly better on defense
: : (plus-7.4 points per 100 possessions better than opponent
: : averages) than offense (plus-6.9). That kind of balance is rare in
: : the postseason. Just five teams since the ABA-NBA merger have
: : been at least six points better than average per 100 possessions
: : at both ends of the court.
: : 马刺季後赛则是攻守相当平衡，进攻和防守端都稳定的领先对手。
: : Putting it Together
: : 总而言之：
: : A regression that combines regular-season win differential and
: : playoff performance leading up to the Finals -- but not defensive
: : rating, which isn't statistically significant as part of a
: : regression -- correctly retrodicts 27 of the past 30 Finals
: : outcomes. Based on that, San Antonio has an 88 percent chance of
: : winning the Finals.
: : 从历史角度来看，马刺有88%的机率夺冠。
: : The good news for Miami? As you might guess from going through the
: : indicators, the biggest upset in modern Finals history was pulled
: : off by another Heat team with Dwyane Wade.
: : 热火的好消息是？
: : 最近一次打预测专家脸的就是2006的Wade。
: : BIGGEST PROJECTED FINALS MISMATCHES (1984-2013)
: : 近30年来冠军赛差别最大的预测值：
: : Year Home Away WinDiff HomePO AwayPO Probability Outcome
: : 年份 主场 客场 胜差 夺冠率 结果
: : 1986 BOS HOU 16 14.5 10.7 .997 4-2
: : 1999 SAS NYK 16* 11.4 9.2 .996 4-1
: : 1996 CHI SEA 8 17.6 6.7 .989 4-2
: : 1987 LAL BOS 6 14.7 3.2 .979 4-2
: : 2000 LAL IND 11 8.4 3.3 .978 4-2
: : 2001 LAL PHI 0 20.8 3.8 .959 4-1
: : 2006 DAL MIA 8 12.5 7.5 .933 2-4
: : 2003 SAS NJN 11 9.1 9.0 .894 4-2
: : 2002 LAL NJN 6 8.2 2.7 .866 4-0
: : 2007 SAS CLE 8 7.0 5.7 .810 4-0
: : *Prorated to an 82-game season
: : （注：以这个公式来算马刺今年夺冠率是88%）
: : Still, nine of the 10 teams most heavily favored entering the
: : Finals won the series, and none of the underdogs even forced a
: : Game 7. The 2006 Finals are also the exception to the rule when it
: : comes to favorites who had a better point differential in both
: : the regular season and the conference playoffs. Those teams are
: : 11-1 in the past three decades.
: : 历史观之，10队里面只有一次被翻盘。
: : Despite this overwhelming evidence, the Heat are only slight
: : underdogs to win the series in Las Vegas. The most common line
: : suggests the Spurs have a 57 percent chance to win. In part, the
: : discrepancy can be traced to the popularity of Miami, as two-time
: : defending champion. But it also surely reflects a belief we still
: : haven't seen the best of the Heat, given Miami's tendency to play
: : better when behind in series and in fourth quarters.
: : 不过即使如此，拉斯维加斯的赌盘中热火只算小输，
: : 赌盘开出马刺57%赢。
: : 我想这跟热火是b2b卫冕军所以有很多信徒有关。
: : 当然，也有很多人相信热火还没发挥完全的实力，
: : 毕竟看起来当他们落後或是打第四节的时候，他们的实力最常展现。
: : That might prove the case, because the Heat haven't yet been
: : seriously challenged in the playoffs. But they'll have to raise
: : their level considerably to match the way San Antonio is playing.
: : Six times this postseason, the Spurs have beaten opponents by 20
: : points more than an average team in the same situation. Miami has
: : done that only once -- the closeout Game 6 against Indiana.
: : 或许真是如此，毕竟热火在季後赛算是过得挺爽。
: : 但是他们要赢马刺，就肯定要在提升一个档次才行。
: : 马刺在今年季後赛打爆对手6次（20分 up）
: : 热火只有打爆一次。
: : If the Heat are to win their third consecutive championship, it
: : will mean defying three decades' worth of Finals trends.
: : 如果热火今年要夺冠，他们就要逆天而行了。
: : ＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
: : 心得：热火这两年季後赛好像打破不少纪录，希望维持下去 @@
: : 去年有印象的是季赛篮板最後一名却拿冠军，之前最烂好像是2x(x<5)。
: : 今年目前有的是季赛0-4，季後赛却胜出。是第一支如此球队。
: : 冠军赛再来逆天一次！
但我站在热火这边！
http://i.imgur.com/p7tILaw.jpg
--
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※ 文章网址: http://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/MiamiHeat/M.1401932844.A.597.html
1F：→ Chalmers23:你害我期待了一下以为你也要来分析一下............... 06/05 09:50
2F：→ peterman167:干嘛分析，你不觉得他们每次持相反论点讨论，然後 06/05 09:53
3F：→ peterman167:基本上都没有共识吗XD我这种跳梁小丑出来干嘛？ 06/05 09:54
4F：→ skunnyk:至少一边有数据佐证论点，一边一直在悲观.... 06/05 10:03
5F：推 Chalmers23:怎麽是跳梁小丑A_A彼得曼很多中肯精辟的分析RRRR 06/05 10:22
6F：推 MrHeat:那我站在彼德曼後面! 06/05 10:30
7F：→ peterman167:替代役身份比赛跟比较少，所以自觉没资格评论，数据 06/05 10:54
8F：→ peterman167:部分也没时间去整理分析啦哈 06/05 10:54
9F：推 Chalmers23:我也想当替代役 彼得曼可以分析一下怎麽能当替代役吗 06/05 11:18
10F：→ peterman167:去申请转服替代役阿，不难 06/05 11:29
11F：推 amyisgood:虽然是火迷，但还是不觉得热火会赢qq 06/05 11:35
12F：推 q770219:害我期待了一下内文XDDD 06/05 11:43
13F：推 nccuwade:XDD害我也期待 06/05 12:07
14F：→ nccuwade:毛皇要分析一下 06/05 12:07
15F：嘘 pttfft:干替代役真爽 怒嘘 私信告诉我怎样替代役好吗?? 06/05 13:28
16F：推 nctucch17170:去年全部申请替代役的全上阿 今年没机会了 06/05 13:29
17F：→ Chalmers23:为什麽彼得曼你讲的感觉很容易XD 我82年年底的有点衰诶 06/05 13:43
18F：推 wilson78225:大家都有青春的骂ㄊㄟ 06/05 14:07
19F：推 zenwu:你知道手机看废文要滑很久吗 下次体谅一下 06/05 17:57
20F：嘘 adad910:是因为认识版主所以可以发废文跟注音文吗?! ~~ 06/05 19:15
21F：→ peterman167:不是耶是因为我是火迷喔 06/05 22:45
22F：嘘 adad910:原来你是火迷~~ ^^ 06/05 23:39
23F：推 nctucch17170:没必要互酸啦~ 都是火迷 看开一点~ 06/05 23:44
24F：嘘 adad910:OK~既然推文大於嘘文，代表这是被认同的了~~那就不打扰了~ 06/05 23:51
25F：推 liugayo:大家早点睡看比赛啦~ 晚安 06/06 00:26
26F：→ peterman167:原来有比我还丢脸的存在 06/06 08:36