Countdown: How will they finish? 小牛本季战绩预测 Prediction time. And, wow, how do you predict how this revamped Dallas Mavericks team will finish a 66-game regular-season schedule over 123 days when the full squad didn't even play one preseason game together? 达拉斯小牛将要在123天内完成66场比赛，但是他们还没有以完整阵容 出赛过，小牛本季的战绩会如何呢？ In fact, the Mavs didn't even finish off the roster until Sean Williams signed Wednesday. Training camp opened Dec. 9, yet Lamar Odom and Vince Carter didn't arrive until a few days later, and Delonte West after that, so coach Rick Carlisle has had his full unit for all of about a week. Add to it that illness kept Brian Cardinal from practicing one day, Brandan Wright from playing in the first exhibition game and Jason Terry and West from playing in the second. 事实上，小牛今天在签下Sean Williams之後阵容才调整完毕。训练营在 12月9日展开，不过Lamar Odom跟Vince Carter都在几天後才加入练习， Delonte West更晚才来。所以教练Rick Carlisle只有大约整整一周是全 队一起练球，况且，Brian Cardinal因为生病休息一天，Brandon Wright 因此没在第一场热身赛上场，Jason Terry跟West也因此没打第二场。 Then there's still the shock factor involved in the deflating losses of Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea, DeShawn Stevenson and also Caron Butler. Odom has his own shock factor to overcome in no longer playing for the Los Angeles Lakers, where he won two titles and played the last seven seasons and probably figured he'd play seven more. 另外让人震惊的是小牛的卫冕阵容解体了，包括Tyson Chandler、J.J. Barea、DeShawn Stevenson与Caron Butler相继离队。Odom也很让人震 惊的与连续两年拿下冠军的湖人闹翻，离开了他待了七年的球队，他原 本以为他还会在湖人再打七年呢。 And what about Vince Carter? Can this guy still get it done? With that, Dallas Mavericks, get out there and defend your title. 那Vince Carter呢？他还能打出该有的水准吗？伴随着这麽多的问题， 小牛踏上了他们的卫冕之路。 Could things be any zanier with the season opener quickly approaching on Christmas Day against the -- by comparison -- remarkably stable Miami Heat? 圣诞节的开幕战迫近了，小牛将要与阵容几乎没有变动的迈阿密热火 举行比赛，事态还能更糟吗？ The Mavs might be in flux, but as defending champions they know there will be no sympathy. Hey, it's a jungle out there. 小牛目前阵容很不稳定，但是他们是卫冕冠军，没人会同情他们，外 面的世界是很险恶的。 "The constant this year is going to be that the teams we play are going to have the increased edge because they're playing the champions," Carlisle said. "I went through this in 1986-87 -- the year after we won the title in Boston. We saw how it was. Every night it's a championship game. I can talk about it all day long and try to get the guys ready for it. But until the games start coming, we won't really know what it's about. And it's going to add to the challenge. But that's part of it." 卡帅说："今年每一队都会针对我们而来，因为我们是卫冕冠军。我在 1986-87球季经历过，前一年我在波士顿夺冠，我们见证过一切，每天 晚上都像在打冠军战。我每天都在讲这件事，试着让队员们能够准备好 迎接挑战。不过不到开季，我们都不会知道这是什麽感觉，这会是个挑 战，这是比赛的一部分。" The Mavs' two preseason losses to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who like the Heat did not undergo major changes -- in fact no changes at all -- did lend credence to the notion that Dallas won't get off to a roaring start. The first 15 games will be played in 23 days and includes matchups against Miami, Denver, two against Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Boston, the Lakers and the new-and-improved Clippers. 小牛连续两场热身赛输给奥克拉荷马雷霆，他们跟热火一样几乎没有 变更阵容，其实雷霆的阵容完全没便。这让大家更确定，小牛的开季 将不会很顺，他们的前15场比赛要在23天内打完，包括要对上热火、 金块、两场对雷霆、马刺、塞尔提克、湖人还有大幅增强的快艇。 And, oh yeah, 12 of those games are back-to-back sets. 喔对了，里面还有12场是B2B。(6组) "Of course, we’ve got to get a feel for where the new guys are going to be at and situations and stuff like that, but for the most part we just walk in and play ball," forward Shawn Marion said. "There’s always going to be some waves. At the same time, you’ve got to be able to take the good with the bad and learn from it." 前锋Shawn Marion说："当然，我们得适应新成员该扮演什麽角色，不 过其实我们只要上场并且打球就够了。事情不会那麽顺遂，你必须保持 优点，然後从缺点中学习。" So, let's get on with the predictions. 以下是专家的预测。 Jeff Caplan, ESPN Dallas beat writer Like everyone else, I expect the Mavs to have their issues early on as assimilation proves challenging. After the lockout, the roster reshaping was fast and furious and inconveniently intertwined with training camp. Carlisle has proven to be quite proficient in finding workable combinations and mixing and matching to suit different situations. He has a deep team at his disposal and he will find lineups that work. The big question is whether he can implore this team to discover a defensive backbone with Chandler now supplying one for Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. My guess is probably not as strong as they will need, and that's going to produce a lot of shootouts, but in the end it won't be a team capable of repeating. Predicted record: 40-26 Jeff Caplan的预测：40胜26败 就像其他人一样，小牛的开季会充满挑战。在封馆之後，小牛的阵容 作了很大的改变，直到训练营开始了还是很混乱。卡帅证明了他很有 能力来用不同的阵容对不同的课题作出应对，他有深度很够的阵容， 他会安排出最适当的先发。有一个很大的问题是他能不能弥补这支球 队失去了Chandler的缺憾，拳王已经去跟Amare Stoudemire与Carmelo Anthony组队了。我猜小牛不再会那麽倚重防守，这会让今年出现很多 烟火秀，但到头来小牛不具有卫冕的能力。 Tim MacMahon, ESPN Dallas beat writer A slow start should probably be expected from a team fitting in new pieces, especially after seeing the Mavs struggle in the preseason. There will be bumps down the road, too, as the Mavs make resting old legs a priority. The goal is to peak for the playoffs again. Predicted record: 40-26 Tim MacMahon的预测：40胜26败。 可以预期的是小牛的起步会较慢，因为他们还需要磨合，这从热身赛 就看的出来了。小牛也会把调整老将的体力那入考量，所以他们在客 场会碰上困难。但最终目标还是在季後赛称王。 Marc Stein, ESPN.com senior basketball writer The Mavs won't slip as far without Tyson Chandler as you think. Especially not in the regular season because they've still got a lot of depth and versatility after the arrival of Lamar Odom -- one of the best players in league history with zero All-Star invites on his resume -- as a one-year bridge between Chandler and whoever Mark Cuban lands with all that cap space he's amassing. The streak of 11 consecutive 50-win seasons is going to perish thanks to the 66-game condensed schedule. The dropoff in rim protection minus Tyson, furthermore, will eventually punish Dallas in the playoffs. But this group can still get to the West finals. Bank on 41 wins for Dirk and his Mavs at worst. Predicted record: 41-25 Marc Stein的预测：41胜25败 小牛在缺少了拳王之後不会像你想的这麽糟，在他们纳入了联盟当中 没入选过明星赛的最强球员之一Lamar Odom之後，他的才能会让小牛 的正规赛很受用，他处於Mark Cuban在失去拳王与明年追逐大咖的过 度期。小牛连续11的球季50胜以上的纪录完蛋了，因为今年只有66场 比赛。小牛在防守上少了拳王会扣分，更会在季後赛痛击小牛。不过 这支球队还有机会打进西区冠军战，我预测小牛至少会有代表Dirk背 号的41胜。 Chuck Cooperstein, Mavs play-by-play voice After a bumpy start which will see them naturally struggle to assimilate their new pieces, the Mavericks will finish strong and will be a very entertaining team to watch. They will be like the Nellie teams of '02-'05, with a better defensive presence. But, like the Nellie teams (and every other Mavericks team besides 2011), they don't have the necessary presence in the middle to take them all the way. Predicted record: 43-23 Chuck Cooperstein的预测：43胜23败 小牛在开季很自然的会因为磨合而走的不稳，不过他们会有很棒的收 尾，小牛会是很值得观赏的一队。他们会像是Don Nelson在02到05年 所执教的小牛队，但有着更好的防守。但就像老尼的球队一样(其实也 只有2011年例外)，小牛没有够好的中锋带他们走的更远。 Jeff "Skin" Wade, co-host of "Ben & Skin Show" 103.3 FM ESPN and Mavs TV sideline reporter The Mavs will once again have a strong playoff run riding the shoulders of the Big German, but their age and demanding schedule prove too tough to overcome and they eventually run out of gas against a younger, hungrier team. But, it'll be a solid year for a franchise transitioning into their next phase with over $20 million in cap space in the summer of 2012 to build a squad for the few remaining years of Dirk's peak. The real trick is for Dallas to know for certain by the end of the season what they have in Roddy B, DoJo and possibly even Brandan Wright. Predicted record: 40-26 Jeff "Skin" Wade的预测：40胜26败 小牛会再次靠着德国坦克的力量在季後赛刮起旋风，但他们年纪大了， 赛程又更密集，因此碰上更年轻或是更饥渴的球队会追不上他们。但 是这只是过度期，明年小牛会多出20M的薪资空间，来替Dirk没剩几年 的巅峰期做好准备。小牛今年最重要的是看看波霸、Dojo和Brandan Wright能打出怎样的水准。 66场的40胜大约等於82场的50胜而已 大家今年的得失心就放轻一点吧 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 111.248.170.193