Ball Don’t Lie’s 2011-12 Season Previews: Dallas Mavericks By Kelly Dwyer http://tinyurl.com/776uyot Usually NBA season previews are best read in October, back when football games hardly mattered, Midnight Madness was a few weeks away, and baseball was winding down. Perhaps with the last of the offseason's iced tea in hand, as you whiled away on a too-warm-for-the-season afternoon. Well, pour yourself a glass of bull shot and tighten those mittens, because it's mid-December and the NBA decided to have a season this year. As such, the exegetes at Ball Don't Lie are previewing the 2011-12 campaign in a mad rush, as if you or we would have it any other way. So put down the shovel long enough to listen to Kelly Dwyer, Dan Devine and Eric Freeman as they break down each of the NBA's 29 teams, plus Toronto. This time? It's the Dallas Mavericks. Kelly Dwyer、Dan Devine与Eric Freeman为今年的30支球队做了预测，这是小牛篇。 Kelly Dwyer's Reasons to be Cheerful Not since the Chicago Bulls completely blew up their 1999 lockout-year roster following the squad's third straight title has a team willingly put the seeming kibosh on a championship repeat like these Dallas Mavericks. The group didn't hesitate for a second in declining to in any way appear competitive in negotiating with other teams to re-sign Tyson Chandler, they made no offer to entice Caron Butler to stick around, J.J. Barea joined the Minnesota Point Guards, and their big offseason move came in "can't turn that [stuff] down" deal for former Laker Lamar Odom. Odom, you'll recall, plays the same hybrid forward position as Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion. And Brian Cardinal. 自从芝加哥公牛上次三连霸的阵容在1999年的封馆球季解体之後，达拉斯小牛 看起来是唯一一支让大家觉得要"卫冕"是无稽之谈的球队。球队高层完全不假 思索的不与其他球队在自由球员市场上竞争。他们不和Tyson Chandler续约， 没有报出让Caron Butler想要留下的价码，J.J. Barea则是加入了明尼苏达灰 狼，球队唯一的大动作就是交易来了前湖人球员Lamar Odom。而Odom的定位却 是和Dirk Nowitzki、Shawn Marion与Brian Cardinal相同，大小前锋都能打。 Topping that, if to either offer honest insight or disarm fans should the Mavericks swing for the fences and miss during the next offseason, Mark Cuban offered up an emailed and ostensible pre-excuse two weeks ago, telling fans that it was flexibility and not [insert All-Star here] that he was after. So why gear up for a group like this? A rebuilding gig on the fly with 42 well-compensated Hall of Famers on the roster? It's because they have 42 Hall of Famers on the roster, silly. This remains perhaps the most likable group of players in the NBA, to say nothing of the most interesting and intriguing most nights out. Coach Rick Carlisle helps take care of the latter portion, he might be the league's most creative coach and certainly remains the quickest on his feet. Jason Terry and Cardinal are far from Hall of Famers, but they're two of our favorites to watch, and an extra-long layoff is exactly what Nowitzki and Jason Kidd need if they want to do it all over again in June. 教练Rick Carlisle或许是目前最有创造力的教练，Jason Terry和Cardinal 虽然都不是名人堂球星，不过他们会在Nowitzki和Jason Kidd寻求卫冕的路 中帮上大忙。 The group might not even make it to May, not because they let Chandler and Butler go, but because the West is that strong. Though we respect the team's adaptability, we wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if any number of teams took them out in the first round. As much as we respect last year's champions, the same lack of shock would apply to that crew as well. This is the minefield that Dallas had to and will have to find its way through -- which to me says more about the Mavericks than anything. 不过这样的阵容可能撑不过明年五月，不是因为他们放走了拳王和Butler， 而是因为西区的战力太强了。尽管我们很尊重小牛的适应性，但如果他们在 第一轮就被其他球队打败也不让我们意外。我们对这支卫冕军很尊重，但是 这支球队如果失败了也不会让我们感到非常震惊。这是达拉斯小牛必须奋斗 的战场，他们得自己找到生存之道。 In the meantime, you're going to see Dirk Nowitzki, Lamar Odom, and Jason Kidd on a basketball court at the same time for long stretches. You're going to see times where Jason Terry is thrown into that mix, and Shawn Marion will be around to finish off broken plays, gather, and score. There are going to be times this season where you wonder why the Mavericks even lose quarters, much less games. If you can't be cheerful about this group, even without the estimable and respected Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea and Caron Butler, then just leave the NBA to the rest of us. 你会常看到Dirk Nowitzki、Lamar Odom、Jason Kidd同时在场上，你偶尔 会看到Jason Terry加入这个阵容，Shawn Marion也会帮忙捡篮板和得分。 你会好奇为什麽小牛常常单节的比数落後，但是真正输掉的比赛没那麽多。 如果你觉得缺少了Tyson Chandler、J.J. Barea和Caron Butler的这个阵容 没什麽看头，那你还是别看NBA了。 I'm so excited for you! There's an awful lot to love about Rodrigue Beaubois. During a revelatory 2009-10 rookie season, the guard from Guadeloupe won fans by combining length, athleticism, speed and quickness with shooting acumen (51.8 percent from the field, 40.9 percent from three and 80.8 percent from the line) and the capacity to ignite and provide instant offense, averaging 20 points per 36 minutes off the Mavericks bench. 有一堆的理由能爱上Rodrigue Beaubois，他在09-10的新人年就崭露头角， 这位来自Guadeloupe的球员用他的身高、运动能力、速度、敏捷性与精准的 投射能力赢得了球迷的喜爱。(命中率51.8%，三分球命中率40.9%，罚球命 中率80.8%)而且他还有能力在短时间做出贡献，他从板凳出发，平均每36分 钟可以攻下20分。 Like many coaches, Rick Carlisle often seemed hesitant to turn to a rookie in big spots, giving Beaubois just 10 total minutes of run in the first five games of the Mavs' first-round 2010 Western Conference Playoffs series against the San Antonio Spurs. But with Dallas down three games to two, staring at a 22-point deficit in Game 6 and facing elimination, Carlisle "freed Roddy B," who blitzed off the bench to help spark a second- and third-quarter swing that turned the game around and briefly even put the Mavs in the lead. With the game in the balance, Carlisle went away from Beaubois in the fourth quarter, not recalling the rook until the game's final three minutes, after the Spurs had regained a lead they wouldn't relinquish. 卡帅就像很多教练一样，不敢交付新秀重任，只让他在去年季後赛第一轮 对圣安东尼奥马刺的头五场比赛合计上场了10分钟。不过当小牛以2-3落後， 而且在第六战落後高达22分，眼看就要被淘汰的时候，卡帅让波霸自由发 挥。他从板凳跳出来，在第二节和第三节带领了小牛的反扑，甚至一度让 小牛取得领先。不过第四节卡帅没有在放上这位新秀，波霸到了倒数三分 钟才上场，那时马刺已经取得足够的领先了。 San Antonio held on to close Dallas out, but the near-day-saving performance -- 16 points on 7-of-13 shooting and five rebounds in just under 21 minutes -- cemented Beaubois as one of the league's emerging talents at lead guard and seemed to signal big things ahead in his sophomore season. Then he broke a bone in his left foot while practicing with the French national team; surgery and rehab kept him on the shelf for more than half of the season. His return inspired hope, but his shot was off (down to 42.2 percent from the field and 30.1 percent from deep), he turned the ball over and fouled more frequently, and he never looked like the game-changer he'd been when fully healthy the previous April. 马刺把小牛淘汰了，不过差点拯救小牛的波霸只上场21分钟，便投13中7 攻下16分还抓下5篮板。大家发现了他的才能，并且很期待他第二年的表 现。然而他在与法国国家队的练习中左脚骨折，手术与复建让他大半季 无法出赛。他的归队让大家充满希望，但是他的命中率让人失望。(命中 率跌到42.2%，三分球命中率30.1%)他失误与犯规的频率增加了，他看起 来跟去年四月能只手改变比赛的波霸天差地远。 Beaubois re-injured the foot in the Mavs' final regular-season game, saw no action in Dallas' run to a championship and had a second surgery in June to try to make things right. And now, it looks like they are -- reports of Beaubois looking healthy and quick in Mavs training camp were supported by a 17-point outing in Dallas' first preseason game. 波霸在球季的最後一场比赛又伤了他的脚，他在小牛的冠军之旅上没有 出赛，也在六月动了手术希望能根除问题。从小牛训练营的报导中，他 看起来康复了，他在第一场热身赛的17分表现支持了这一点。 With Jason Kidd and Jason Terry returning, Vince Carter and Delonte West imported to play big roles and Dominique Jones healthy again after a foot injury of his own, the Mavs' backcourt is crowded. Beaubois won't be handed major minutes. But if he can stay healthy, watching him hustle to earn them should be a lot of fun. Kidd和Jet回来了，球队又补进Vince Carter和Delonte West，Dominique Jones也从脚伤中康复，小牛的後场很挤。波霸不会有很多上场时间，不过 只要他能保持健康，看他为了争取上场时间而拼命会很精采。 I'm so worried for you! In the aftermath of the Mavs' championship, an awful lot of ink was spilled on Dallas' offensive onslaught -- Dirk Nowitzki's ineffable greatness, Jason Terry's off-the-bench shot-making, J.J. Barea's jitterbug drive-and-kick game, and so on. While the praise was certainly well-deserved, Dallas' improvement on the other end of the floor was frequently just as, if not more, important, and Mark Cuban's crew will likely have a tougher time holding opponents down this season. 在小牛夺得冠军後不久，大家大肆宣扬小牛的进攻爆发力，Dirk难以形容 的伟大，Jet从板凳跳出的投射能力，JJB刁钻的切传能力等等。小牛当然 值得这样的赞美，而他们的防守功力也被赞扬。不过Mark Cuban和他的球 员们今年可能会为了抵挡对手而伤透脑筋。 By featuring a disciplined zone look and unleashing center Tyson Chandler to clean up everything, the Mavericks were the NBA's seventh-most efficient defensive unit in 2010-11, according to Basketball-Reference and Hoopdata, their first top-10 finish since '06-'07. With Chandler now earning $58 million to clean up messes for Amar'e Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and the rest of the New York Knicks, though, Dallas will have to try some different looks to find a workable defensive approach. While running Dirk or the newly imported Lamar Odom at the five for stretches will certainly give the champs "a whole different wrinkle" offensively, as president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson recently said, I'm skeptical that any such units -- especially ones where Dirk's expected to anchor the paint -- could effectively replace Chandler's activity. 小牛去年的禁区因为有了拳王而让人望而生畏，去年小牛的防守表现是 自从06-07球季之後最佳的。但是拳王现在投靠尼克与Amare Stoudemire 和Carmelo Anthony共事，小牛得想办法来弥补这样的防守空缺。当把 Dirk或Odom摆上五号位时，这样的问题就浮现了。如同小牛GM Donnie Nelson所说，他很怀疑有人能弥补拳王的地位，成为Dirk在禁区里的靠山。 For the most part, responsibility for manning the middle will likely fall to Brendan Haywood, and while he is certainly a strong interior defender whose contributions on that end often went overlooked on subpar Washington Wizards squads, that, too, represents a drop-off. 大部分的时候，这样的责任就会落在Brendan Haywood身上。 Haywood blocks a higher percentage of shots than Chandler, but he doesn't clean the defensive glass as well (Chandler grabbed 26.6 percent of opponents' misses last year, while Haywood snagged 20.9 percent), and he doesn't extend the defense -- hedging on pick-and-rolls, stepping out on shooters, attacking drivers and covering all angles while still being able to rotate back to his man -- as well as Chandler is able to with his superior athleticism. When he's engaged, Haywood is a capable defensive center, but he just isn't as swarming a presence as the man who placed third in Defensive Player of the Year voting a season ago. (And when Haywood isn't engaged, that's a whole 'nother story.) 黑雾的火锅能力比拳王还强，但是抓篮板的能力就不如拳王了。而且他的 移动性也比较差，不善於对付挡拆，无法封阻外围的射手，也很难抵挡从 四方杀进来的切入者。不过他还是能够盯好他对应到的对手，就像拳王能 够活用他优秀的运动能力一样，黑雾在认真的时候，也是个防守优良的中 锋。但他还是比不上上赛季在最佳防守球员名列第三的拳王，而且当黑雾 懒散的时候，那就是另一段故事了。 With Dirk, Kidd and Terry returning alongside new pieces like Odom and Carter, the Mavericks will certainly continue to score points, and it's possible that the contributions of Haywood, Odom and Shawn Marion, still a talented defender, will keep Dallas competitive on that end. But even dropping off to a league-average mark could mean the difference between returning to the Promised Land and falling just short in an increasingly chaotic Western Conference. 小牛队上有Dirk、Kidd和Jet，又有Odom和Carter两位生力军，他们的得 分不会少。而黑雾、Odom和Marion还是可能组成不错的防守阵线。不过能 不能维持联盟的平均水准，将会关系到小牛能否卫冕，或者是就这样消失 在西区的战场当中。 I have no idea what to make of you! Setting aside the fact that there's something deeply weird about the idea of Vince Carter coming to town as the new Caron Butler/DeShawn Stevenson -- it's like last decade just ate the idea of a shooting guard and threw up or something -- I'm really curious how his signing will work out for the Mavs. More to the point, I'm curious which version of Carter will show up at the American Airlines Center. 先不管签下Vince Carter来取代Caron Butler和DeShawn Stevenson有多 奇怪，我很好奇小牛签下他有何助益，我也很好奇我们会在美国航空中心 看到怎样的VC。 Will Dallas get the Carter who started last season with the Orlando Magic -- the one who looked eager to play a major supporting role, who sharply facilitated for teammates and posted near-career-best True Shooting and Effective Field Goal percentages through the first 22 games? Or will the Mavs get the Carter who finished the season with the Phoenix Suns after Otis Smith remade the Magic on the fly -- the one who jacked more shots per 36 minutes despite only hitting 42.2 percent of them, whose numbers (save for 3-point percentage) fell across the board, and who, as The Two Man Game's Rob Mahoney recently noted, "never seemed all that comfortable or enthusiastic about the chance to play in Phoenix," even alongside All-World playmaker Steve Nash? 小牛得到的是去年从奥兰多魔术起飞的Carter，他愿意帮助球队，在前22场 比赛，他的进攻手段锐利，还有着几乎生涯最佳True Shooting和Effective Field Goal percentages。还是小牛得到的是去年球季尾声来到凤凰城太阳 日落西山的Carter，他在平均36分钟投球次数更多，命中率却只有42.2%。他 的命中率下跌，Rob Mahoney质疑他就算与世界最佳的後卫Steve Nash同队， 也没有热情为太阳做出贡献？ If Carter gets with the Mavs' program and stays healthy, he's still a productive player (even at the cusp of turning 35 years old) who can add depth and firepower to an already stacked offense capable of scoring in just about any way you'd like. If, on the other hand, a non-featured role leads to a lackadaisical Vince who jacks shots, floats through possessions and sours what was one of the NBA's sweetest mixes a year ago, Dallas has the backcourt depth to fill in the blanks and, if necessary, can jettison Carter without too much heartache or too high a price tag. (His three-year contract for the "mini" mid-level exception, one of the new wrinkles in the lockout-created collective bargaining agreement, pays about $3 million this year, with the final two years only partially guaranteed.) 如果VC能适应小牛的体系并且保持健康，他还会是产能不错的球员(尽管 他快要35岁了)，他能用各种方法为小牛本来就很多元的火网增加深度。 另一方面，如果因为不受重用而导致VC散漫的随便乱打，在进攻上做不 出贡献的话，小牛还是有其他人选能补上。必要的话，把VC丢掉也不会 让小牛很心痛，也不用花很多钱。 Whether or not it pays off, the gamble makes sense for the Mavs; looking at it on paper, in fact, it scarcely even seems like a gamble. Yet I can't shake this feeling that, before too long, frustrated Mavs fans will be clamoring for more West, Beaubois or Jones and less Vince. All the talent in the world, but he just seems to have that effect on fan bases, doesn't he? 不管这样的签约值不值得，这样的赌注对小牛很合理。但事实上，这几 乎不算是个赌注，我脑中挥之不去的是，不久之後小牛迷们会鼓噪要求 West、波霸和DoJo多上场，而不是VC。他有很多才能，但他需要打出实 绩才能让球迷信服。 Eric Freeman's Culture Club In the late 1960s, director Michael Ritchie and movie star Robert Redford started a series of films on the loosely defined subject of what it takes to win. They only made two, but both are landmarks of the era. The first, 1969's "Downhill Racer," concerns an Olympic skier who triumphs over all professional obstacles even as he proves to be an obstinate jerk who grows practically zero as a person. The second, 1972's "The Candidate," is typically considered a classic. Redford's Bill McKay, a community organizer, decided to run for senate, sells out most of his principles, and ends up with the nomination. It's not a particularly subtle movie; but national politics aren't, either. The Mavericks didn't sell out their principles to win last year's championship -- if anything, they held to them strongly while acknowledging there was room to tweak around the images. But one moment from "The Candidate" does nicely demonstrate the position the Mavs find themselves in this season. In the final scene, embedded above, Redford asks his political advisor (played by the always terrific Peter Boyle), five simple words: "What do we do now?" Given the difficulty and compromises of the campaign, it's a question without a clear answer. The goal is to win, and beyond that there's no coherent plan for governance. Dallas has an easy answer to that question: try to win another championship. But that goal may prove more difficult than you'd think. The Mavs dominated last season's playoffs, but they were more of a surprise than your typical winner -- many pundits, myself included, expected them to lose in the first round to the Blazers. Those doubters were shown to be horribly misguided, but the point remains that the Mavericks aren't exactly dominant. Before last spring, many thought they should quit trying to keep pace with the rest of the league and start a reloading process. They play from a position of strength now, but they're still an aging team now without the defensive lynchpin of their championship run. Can they really challenge for a title again this year? Or is that a hopeful outcome for a team without a more coherent long-term plan? 小牛的目标很简单：卫冕。但这个目标比你想像的难上数倍，小牛在去年 季後赛大杀四方，他们让许多的专家跌破眼镜，包括我。我以为他们第一 轮就会输给拓荒者，这些质疑者错的离谱。不过他们还能这麽威风吗，去 年春天，很多人觉得小牛应该放弃追逐其他球队而开始重建。小牛现在战 力很强，但他们更老了，防守是他们去年获得冠军的关键，但是今年没有 了。他们能够再度登上NBA的巅峰吗？还是该为了未来作长期打算？ Obviously the Mavericks should play to repeat -- there's no reason for them not to. Still, it's a little unclear what comes next. If they can't contend this year, things might get complicated for the franchise brain trust. Success is supposed to clarify options, but in Dallas' case the future might end up cloudier than they were last April. 显然，小牛还是要力求卫冕，没有理由不这麽做。但是他们的前途茫茫， 如果他们在今年失去竞争力，球团就要伤脑筋了。成功可以解决问题，不 过对小牛而言，未来要碰上的问题可能比去年四月的问题更加难解。 文章超长...所以不重要的我就没翻了 总之大家轻松看球吧 也拜托大家轻松看待这篇文章 这只是专家的预测 实际如何也只有正式比赛才知道罗 请大家理性讨论 谢谢 --

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