http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=3436 It’s a nightmare for the Denver Nuggets. It’s a pipedream for the Dallas Mavericks. But stories of Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets considering a divorce are now everywhere, and so exploring ways for the Mavs to get involved in a Sign-and-Trade for the Nuggets’ superstar? Forgive us our fantasies, but that’s part of what we do. While DallasBasketball.com pokes around to gauge the Mavs’ real-life involvement in this, let’s play Amateur GM: What do the Mavs have to offer to in a Sign-and-Trade for Denver’s Carmelo Anthony? Let’s begin with Denver’s difficult situation. It has on the table an offer of a three-year extension worth $65 mil. That’s a max-money deal for a 26-year-old star who is the face of that franchise … but he’s so far leaving that offer sitting there on that table. We’ll work on the logical assumption that after watching LeBron James leave Cleveland in the dust, Denver will at least consider being preemptive here and consider trading ‘Melo before eventually losing him for virtually nothing. We’ll also work on the assumption that this sort of deal doesn’t really happen until some of our “Artificial Deadlines’’ start popping up. The mid-February trade deadline seems a sensible one here. And before we begin, as always, The Disclaimer: The Mavs front office has done such an admirable job of keeping the team in contention while also accumulating assets. And the commitment made by Mark Cuban to chase a second superstar – a commitment made not only to Dirk Nowitzki but also to the Mavs ’ fan base – is rock-solid. … but comes with no guarantees. As with Chris Paul, this is a player with 30 suitors. There will be endless proposals. And all along, there will be Denver in the driver’s seat to keep him now … and when ‘Melo is free next summer, the player in the driver’s seat on his way to the Knicks or whomever. … Having put down the groundwork … First, why might Denver and Dallas hesitate to do this trade? Denver: 1) Carmelo Anthony. ‘Melo is a very special talent in this league and the face of their franchise who helps bring in the ticket sales. There is a long-standing philosophy held by Mavs GM Donnie Nelson: Once a team possesses a superstar, it must never, ever let him go … because it can take a decade to ever find another. But if ‘Melo is demanding a trade, the Nuggets may not have many options since he has the ability to walk away for nothing this coming summer if he so desires. (And there are so many reports out there that suggest that he does desire to walk away.) 2) Dallas is a conference rival. It seems that this will not be an issue if the business side of things are in favor of a trade to Dallas, but with all else equal one would think this would make a difference. Some organizations factor this into their trade thinking, some do not. 3) Is a deal with Dallas the best return in savings and assets that Denver can get? Dallas: 1) Pending further research into what might be happening behind the scenes, it seems Dallas would be silly to not pursue this with the same vigor that’s been used on Chris Paul. ‘Melo, in any scenario that keeps Dirk on the Mavs, just makes too much basketball and business sense for the Mavs to turn him down. So why would Denver and Dallas consider doing this trade? Denver: 1) If these reports include even a grain of truth, Carmelo Anthony is disgruntled. If the Nuggets don’t act before ‘Melo’s contract is up, they may lose him for nothing or get less than they might have if they were to move him in the coming months. This takes a high level of self-awareness on the part of the Nuggets – a self-awareness that, in retrospect, Cleveland did not have with LeBron. 2) Having the “upper hand” in any deal. If the Nuggets try and move ‘ Melo now they will be at a distinct advantage in regard to getting the most return for their great loss. The closer to next summer that things get, the worse the Nuggets’ negotiating position will get. Having said that: The trigger usually gets pulled in February. Early-season on-court success by the Nuggets can serve as a balm. 3) Savings. Even though the Nuggets have been willing to spend in order to try and win, money is still money and owners like having it. The Nuggets have an opportunity to cut their payroll if they are forced to deal ‘Melo. 4) Future flexibility and assets. In trading with Dallas (and other teams with expiring to give) the Nuggets are in a position to get out of almost any contract they want and to also get young, cheap talent in return (even though the Nuggets don’t have many “bad” contracts). Dallas: 1) Carmelo Anthony as a player who “fits’’ anywhere. Melo is a great player and a big name that would help the success, the notoriety and the business of the Mavs. Even though there are some stats that suggest that ‘ Melo is not an elite player in this league (his highest PER has only been 22.2), he is inarguably a star. In our opinion, ‘Melo is exactly the type of player the Mavs need on offense that can help make room for Dirk to excel – and back to “fit,’’ Anthony would be that sort of player for any club. (Worth noting: He often takes on tough defensive assignments and survives those, too.) If you can get such a star to team up with Dirk, it shouldn’t matter what you have to give up in the process—players like Melo do not become available very often at all. So what might a deal between Denver and Dallas realistically look like? Worth repeating (despite today’s NBA-wide frenzy): There seems to be no rush to do this deal before the season starts. But the closer we get to the February trade deadline, the more things will likely pick up if Melo is still unhappy in Denver. The assets of the Mavs that the Nuggets can pick through and try to mix and match to their liking: 1) $3 million cash 2) 1st round draft picks 3) Expiring contracts: a. Tyson Chandler – 1 year @ $12,600,000 (not available for package trade until Sept 13) b. Caron Butler – 1 year @ $10,811,960 c. DeShawn Stevenson – 1 year @ $4,151,786 d. Jose Juan Barea – 1 year @ $1,749,600 4) Inexpensive, young talent: a. Roddy Beaubois – 4 years @ $1,156,080 / $1,236,720 / $2,227,333 / $3,271,952 b. Dominique Jones – 5 years @ $1,110,120 / $1,193,280 / $1,276,560 / $2,299,085 / $3,377,355 (not available for trade until Aug 13) c. Alexis Ajinca – 3 years @ $1,467,840 / $2,263,409 / $3,243,465 (not available for package trade until Sept 13) d. Ian Mahinmi – 2 years @ $884,293 / $916,100 (not available for trade until Dec 15) The contracts that Denver may want to get rid of: 1) Carmelo Anthony – 2 years @ $17,149,243 / $18,518,574 (early termination option) 2) Chris Andersen – 4 years @ $3,942,000 / $4,234,000 / $4,526,000 / $4,818,000 3) Renaldo Balkman – 3 years @ $1,675,000 / $1,675,000 / $1,675,000 So what trade makes the most sense in our eyes? Dallas IN / Denver OUT: · Carmelo Anthony – 2 years @ $17,149,243 / $18,518,574 (early termination option) · Renaldo Balkman – 3 years @ $1,675,000 / $1,675,000 / $1,675,000 Dallas OUT / Denver IN: · $3 million cash · Two 1st Round draft picks · Roddy Beaubois – 4 years @ $1,156,080 / $1,236,720 / $2,227,333 / $3,271,952 · Caron Butler – 1 year @ $10,811,960 · DeShawn Stevenson – 1 year @ $4,151,786 The resulting Denver core roster: G – Billups, Lawson, Smith, Beaubois F – Martin, Butler, Harrington C – Hilario, Andersen The resulting Dallas core roster: G – Kidd, Terry, Jones F – Nowitzki, Anthony, Marion C – Haywood, Chandler This deal would save the Nuggets about $3 million in salary immediately, would get them $3 million in cash, two 1st round picks, and would not increase their long-term salary. It would create a logjam at guard a little bit (which makes one wonder if Denver would try to look elsewhere for young talent in the front court), but if Roddy B were to play SG, then it would make them legitimately two-deep at each guard position. This trade would also get them an immediate replacement for ‘Melo in the form of Caron Butler. Certainly this is a big downgrade, but it should allow them to continue to be competitive as they explore rebuilding options moving forward. This deal would get Dirk the long-needed companion star in Carmelo Anthony. The Mavs’ depth would be thinned in the process (losing two rotation players and gaining only one in return), but filling a roster with role players is infinitely easier than finding the ever-elusive second star. Conclusion Who knows what will happen as the days, weeks, and months go by, but you watch: the Mavs will at least be in the headline-making conversation if the speculation about ‘Melo wanting out of Denver are true. The Mavs have decent assets as potential trade partners with Denver, but this is a franchise-changing deal for Denver, and the Nuggets have enough right-now leverage to attempt to demand even greater assets from other bidders. There are a lot of moving parts here: Can Anthony leverage his way to New York? … Would he sign an extension upon his arrival in a new city (which we think would be a Mavs must)? … Can Denver made a trade that, like New Orleans with Chris Paul, is designed to pacify its star? At this moment, this is just us playing Amateur GM. Our gut reaction: There is one major obstacle that will keep Carmelo-to-Dallas as nothing more than a pipedream. Our next step: To investigate the thoughts of all this inside Mavs HQ. ... and to pass those on to you. ... 原本不太想po 因为觉得这篇比较偏向幻想文 不过刚刚看到一则消息是说 尼克将要向金块提出交易Melo 如果金块有意兜售Melo 那小牛交易到的机会就提升一点点 不过这笔交易要成立是有几个前题的 首先是金块确定Melo已经无心续留金块 且确定要走 如果Melo确定要走那金块一定会在他合约走完前 想办法换回一些筹码 否则後过会跟LBJ离开骑士一样 第二个前题是小牛提出的交易大於其他队 毕竟存在於同一个区 球队不会想要资敌 第三个前题是球队提供的交易筹码符合金块的需求 我想这点也是最基本的 毕竟球星离队 球队必须重新找一个人来带队 甚至是彻底的重建 所以说以这个前题来说 想交易的球队必须提供明星 或是有潜力成为明星的球员 目前听说尼克将要提出的交易名单为 Danilo Gallinari, Eddy Curry and a future first-round draft pick 以这份交易名单来说 我认为小牛是可以提出更好的筹码 当然更好的筹码不代表就符合金块队的要求 但是如同前面所说 既然有球队开始提交易 而Melo也许希望出走 那他今年被交易的可能性就大很多 还有一件事必须去注意 就是交易後 确定Melo想待这队 或是交易至金块的球员会续约 没有人希望花高成本去换结果最後球星选择离队 既然有球队已经开始提 小牛不妨也试看看 只是机会不太高就是了 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.42.92.173 ※ 编辑: popstarkirby 来自: 114.42.92.173 (08/18 10:15)