再三天就是今天大联盟选秀了，拜去年还不差的成绩所赐，今年选秀拿到21顺位 大概只能在旁边吃瓜看戏，Drew Jones、Jackson Holiday、Termarr Johnson 谁会放掉应该都没我们的事啦 这次排名有参考一些选秀网站不同时间点的mock ranking 包括mlb pipeline, ESPN Kiley McDaniel, prospectslive Joe Doyle, CBS, JustBaseball, mymlbdraft, baseballprospectjournal, B/R, FanGraphs, BA (但是BA只有找到前reddit 上有人整理出来季初的资料) 蒐集的时间分别为 Pre-Season (PS,~二月), Season-ending (SE, 5-6月), Pre-draft (PD, 七月) 详细资料整理於此 https://reurl.cc/LmYjKx 今年不像去年四大高中SS+vandy 双Ace 长时间占据talent ranking 中间排行还蛮混乱的 不过看起来选秀前段(1-5)还是以高中野手为主 前十中後段以大学野手为主 投手的话，不论高中大学这届都有点惨 https://imgur.com/ONk9YvH 不少投手大物都刚好在这一季开刀或是复健 像是Dylan Lesko和田纳西ace Blade Tidwell、BAMA的Connor Prielipp 在不同mock中第一轮可能被选到的选手共有53人，有些大概就只有一两个mock有挑到 所以这个数字越大代表这次各家预测不太一致 https://imgur.com/dyBZNzG 这边把不同时间的排名放在一起来看 蓝色PD代表是离选秀最接近的时间做的分析 红色PS是大概半年前的评价 所以图上蓝色比红色靠左侧代表评价一直升高 (ex. Zach Neto) 反过来蓝色比红色靠右代表评价下滑 (ex. Jackson Ferris) 把水兵#21 顺位前後+/- 4位就有可能是这一届我们的第一轮落点 Joe Doyle 之前有提到 我们是很想选好的中线打者 像是 Campbell 的 Neto或是两个高中SS Cole Young 和 Jett Williams 但是很有可能会选不到，尤其是Zach Neto 从一轮尾跑到中间了 很有可能跟我们擦身而过 所以Joe 也有提到，好的打者可能选不到的情况，不一定要坚持只选棒子 像是Cooper Hjerpe 健康的大学左手侧投也是值得一选 根据这个排名，先列一些资料让大家参考一下 Zach Neto (15) Campbell 大学的主力SS 偶尔会客串 Closer XD 6' 0" / 185 lbs R/R Neto really exudes confidence and athleticism at the plate. He's an aggressive hitter who extends really well and has a knack for catching the ball out in front, tapping into a lot of his raw power. He's a good hitter with a track record of success at school and on the cape as well. It’s a rhythmic swing that relies on timing, though Neto has shown real feel for putting his body in a position to damage the baseball. Some of the quirks in his setup and swing have been compared to Javier Baez. Really good feel for tempo on the dirt with soft hands and body control. Arm might only be average, but Neto can make throws from any angle. Whether he ends up at second base, shortstop or anywhere else on the diamond, Neto has a pretty complete profile that will appeal to teams. https://www.mlb.com/video/2022-draft-zach-neto-ss https://youtu.be/4htrqLs8wRU 高抬腿打击将来应该会被修掉吧 Batting .514/.769/1.283 with 15 HRs, 23 doubles, 50 RBIs and 19 SB Pitching 5-0, 3.25 ERA 27 K, 27.2 ip 但应该是无缘啦，看看有没有神力巧合罗 Daniel Susac C Arizona Col 6' 4" / 218 lbs R R 大学捕手，是觉得我们选得机会应该不是那麽大啦 今年大学成绩 .366/.430/.582/1.012 12HR A big, tall, power-hitting catcher, Susac looks the part. In fact, he previously switch-hit, but ditched his lefty swing for the 2022 campaign. Susac has a very good arm behind the plate, and has really improved his pitch-framing in 2022. Susac has more explosiveness and lateral mobility than most catchers his size do. But this guy will make his money with the bat. A potential plus hitter with plus power, Susac projects a middle-of-the-order impact bat, a run producer and an impact defender up the middle of the field. Susac's batted-ball data surpasses that of Henry Davis from 2021. The kid can bang. 虽然说是power型的打者，但是今年大学打最多的打到30支，susac好像一半还不到XD 高中SS组 Cole Young (18.29) SS North Allegheny (PA) HS 6' 0" / 180 lbs L R hit 60 power 40 击球感觉很不错，很少被K，今年只有被K5次(破百PA) 模板像是 frazier @@ 和Stephen Drew 防守上应该是可以长久留在SS不用换守位 偶像是Jeter XD One of the top middle infielders in the 2022 class. Pretty complete profile. Strong defensively up the middle with good footwork and an accurate arm with the innate feel for tempo and timing. Tends to peppers ball into gaps both pull-side and opposite field, but Young has a well-leveraged body with strong exit velos. He can ambush fastballs and lift when he wants. All that said, he'll likely never be more than a below average power hitter, checking in with double digit homers now and again during his pro career. Young checks a lot of boxes scouts want to see. A low chase rate, a low whiff rate, and tempered swinging strike rate. It's a very polished profile that projects to stick at shortstop and hit for average and defend well. Some Adam Frazier in this profile. https://www.mlb.com/news/cole-young-guide https://youtu.be/LU0bQm5OsY0 https://youtu.be/8gdTREZxdGE Jett Williams (18.86) SS Rockwall-Heath (TX) HS 5' 8" / 178 lbs R R 另外一个高中SS 跟Cole young 比较不同的地方是Jett 在季初没有什麽人关注 季末就出现在各家mock 第一轮的名单中 Williams does everything on the baseball field with intent. At the plate, there's quick wrists and an attacking path to the ball. The swing is extremely short and he does a very good job taking his hands to the ball. Some believe he projects a plus hitter with average power. On the dirt, Williams is a bouncy middle infielder with rangy actions and fluidity around the bag when making his throws. Smallish frame projects into an impact, top-of-the-lineup spark plug type of performer. Williams will likely be forced off shortstop as a pro, but it’s every bit that of an impact player at second base or third base as he continues to get stronger. Williams gets high marks for his makeup and love for the game, and has a ton of suitors in the Top 20 picks. https://youtu.be/WtsxPuBuDUc https://youtu.be/Kk34og5tqqA https://youtu.be/XfD_b1aQ_QI Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 以上两个高中SS如果出现，我们应该是不会放掉吧 大学投手 Connor Prielipp (20.14) 2022 成绩 --------------------- --------------------- 对 空白 After dazzling in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Prielipp entered 2021 as a must-watch arm for the 2022 class. Unfortunately, Prielipp was forced to undergo Tommy John Surgery in May 2021. He had added 25 pounds of muscle during quarantine, which led to his fastball velocity sitting at 93-96, topping out at 97 before the injury. His slider is firm and sat 88-90 MPH with late break and there's a developing change-up in the mid-80's that has promise. Prielipp gets especially high marks for his command of the baseball as well. Scouts won't be afraid to take a chance on this elite-level lefty in July. It's the same narrative as Jaden Hill from 2021, though Prielipp comes at hitters from the left side with better command and more intriguing pitch metrics. It's not out of the question for the lanky Alabama product to be the first college lefty off the board. 比较有趣的是他跟Dylan Lesko一样，虽然是开刀复健中，评价倒是没有什麽变动 代表大家对他们的资质没有怀疑，但是我们应该是不会去选吧 Gabriel Hughes RHP Gonzaga Col 6' 4" / 220 lbs R R 榜上少数今年健康的大学投手 (去年手断掉@@) 直球大概95-97 今年8-3 98IP 3.21 ERA 76 H 138 K 37BB K9不错 Hughes, a Team USA member, suffered a broken hand in 2021 for Gonzaga, keeping him off the mound for about half of his freshman campaign, but when he was on the mound, it was awfully impressive. Big fastball can get up to 97, coupled with a sharp mid-to-high 80s slider and feel for a changeup. Hughes has two breaking balls, whether by design or accident, that melt together. Most believe it is one slider, though his release can be inconsistent. Sometimes Hughes gets more sweep than depth, sometimes vis-versa. Either way, Hughes has scouts in the Pacific Northwest drooling. First round arm talent. Requires some polish around the edges in terms of commanding the fastball and refining the entire arsenal, but the athleticism is unique. 另外打击也不差 (Gonzaga 学长表示:) https://youtu.be/S8as1Yaq4kM Cooper Hjerpe LHP Oregon State Col 6' 2" / 189 lbs L L 这个投手的名字大概是跟水兵连在一起最多的吧，Hjerpe 应该是要发音成 /jerpy/ 投球姿势很有特色，左手侧投 有点sale + R什麽J大叔 也真的很会K，今年破了学校单场17K纪录，但是输球(先适应??) https://youtu.be/93_ldqtP8Xs https://youtu.be/rL63-QnIQlk https://youtu.be/KqCZ9Xq7cqo 今年成绩 103.1 IP 11-2 2.53 ERA 23 BB 161 SO K9 14.0 真的很猛，直球大概落在89-93之前最高可以到95 搭配不错的breaking ball 和变速球跟奇特的姿势让打者不好掌握 You can't talk about Hjerpe without first discussing just how unique he is. It's a sub-5-foot release height that he somehow manages to stay and ride the fastball. It's legitimately a Josh Hader delivery. Hjerpe is polished with a low-90s heater, touching 95. He employs a hellacious sweeping slider and a solid-to-above average changeup. He limits walks and gets a ton of swing-and-miss on all three pitches. He's been a mainstay in the OSU rotation since arriving to campus and represents one of the more consistent forces in the class. There's loads of deception here and it's an incredibly unique profile -- some might go as far as to call it unicorn stuff. Model teams will love what he brings to the table. Definitive first round upside here. 如果没有喜欢的打者，我觉得选Hjerpe看起来是蛮不错的选择 Kumar Rocker 去年Rocker 没有顺利签约，今年又刚好是投手小年，缺投手的球队可能还是会想冲冲看 今年在独立联盟复出，球速条件看起来还是蛮不错的， 虽然是在我们的射程范围，但是我们应该是不会去碰吧 大学外野组，刚好接下来都是大学外野打者 Chase DeLauter OF James Madison Col 6' 4" / 235 lbs L L 今年成绩是有点变态的 .437/.576/.828/1.404 BB/K 28/21 但是很多人认为主要是他学校分区太弱才会有如此变态的成绩(大王: 怪我罗) 然後季中手断掉，提早结束球季，让评价从top 10 跌到 21左右 Lookout landing 前几天也有发文 https://reurl.cc/Wrj38Z 从挥棒机制来看，也不是很看好，虽然BA给他的球探报告分数很高 hitting, fielding 55 power, run, arm 60 https://youtu.be/OcGgXeYIcbM https://youtu.be/ednWvxLhZx0 https://youtu.be/Ui1DB0E_bKM DeLauter is a physical specimen. At 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, the product of Martinsburg, West Virginia can really bang at the plate. He burst onto the scene in 2021, slashing .386/.508/.723 with six homers and seven stolen bases in just 26 games. He worked 25 walks and punched out just 14 times. DeLauter has showcased his talents in the Cape Cod League as well, surging confidence in his abilities with big league scouts. Believers see an above average hitter with easy plus, potentially plus-plus raw power. Detractors believe the swing is too unconventional (a back foot sliding mechanism) to find consistent success at the pro level. He has a disciplined eye at the plate that should translate to pro ball well. In the field, it’s a plus-plus arm in a corner with rangy speed and sound fundamentals. DeLauter clocked a 6.4-second 60 at James Madison's pro day, indicative of a plus runner. James Madison has not produced a first round pick since 2007. All signs point toward that changing in 2022. Jordan Beck Tennessee Col 6' 3" / 225 lbs R R 2022 .298/.391/.595/.986 18HR 37BB 62SO Jordan 季初关注程度不算太高，但是随着田纳西战绩飞天 越来越多人看到球队主炮的表现 今年他们Ace 大多数的时间都在养伤， 牛棚大将 Ben Joyce 丢出105.5 mph吸引了不少媒体目光 Jordan自己季初的时候也上过版面，不过那个时候是因为 使用不合规定的球棒打全垒打被检举 https://twitter.com/11point7/status/1510031831231574021?s=20&t=O30sz6Fe3PV6R61830bnZA https://youtu.be/uzml1RgF_MY https://youtu.be/OVXa5cBaAw0 https://youtu.be/upDyRf-kGLs 他的模板大概是 Hunter Renfroe Beck is a big, strong, physical corner outfielder with immense raw power in his bat. He really surged toward the end of the 2021 campaign and some scouts saw him as a sleeper this class. That didn’t last long as he came out of the gates hot as hell in February and March. Swing and miss has ticked down and barrels have really begun appearing with more frequency. Beck is an above average runner, especially for his size, and he has a good arm in right field. The whole package isn’t entirely different than a Hunter Renfroe type of thumper. You don't find this kind of athleticism easily in a corner profile. He projects an average defender so long as his body and health stay fit. Drew Gilbert Tennessee Col 5' 9" / 185 lbs L L 2022 .362/.455/.673 11HR 33BB 32SO 身材娇小的外野手，但是对於球棒的控制能力相当好 短小精干型的选手，选球能力也很棒 今年比较有名的画面是被赶出场时夸张表情XDDDDD https://youtu.be/GIVzasC7jqU https://youtu.be/jxDKgVSRYdg https://youtu.be/l91TTm-oBAM Gilbert is the ultimate spark plug at the top of the lineup. He's a good, slappy hitter who isn't afraid to turn and burn on a fastball when he's ahead, tapping into his solid average raw power. His homers have become highlight reel shots. Gilbert plays a solid centerfield and has a plus arm to keep baserunners honest. His best trait is without question his sublime approach and discipline at the plate. He draws a decent amount of walks, but really keeps his strikeouts down and never surrenders an at-bat. Gilbert is a big personality and a gritty player who will be well-liked in dugouts. Dylan Beavers OF California Col 6' 4" / 206 lbs L R 2022 .291/.427/.634/1.060 17HR 51BB 54SO Hit: 50. Power: 60. Run: 55. Field: 50. Arm: 55. Overall: 50 https://youtu.be/ImEgshRKnsE https://youtu.be/T3xksgLHq9M mlb combine 问他哪家汉堡店好吃?? https://youtu.be/KARp1PPIMjo (场内HR) Beavers was one of the best players in the PAC in 2021. A tall, rangy outfielder, Beavers gets high marks for his hit tool and raw power. There's some loft in his swings, as evidenced by his 18 homers last season. Beavers can expand the zone at times as he's an aggressive hitter who looks to do damage and drive in runs. There's some speed to his game too, and natural instincts on the base paths, though he’s likely only an average “athlete” which limits his ability to make the highlight reel play. He best projects into a corner where his above average arm, length and wheels can best be optimized. Some have compared the entire package to a Christian Yelich type of profile. High praise, indeed. 以上这些选手应该是我们射程范围内有机会的 後面几个大学外野手应该是能打的， 以前我们应该会只考虑大学生，去年Ford 和 Arroyo成功的案例 或许HS中线SS也会选来练练 投手的话Hjerpe应该是最符合我们需求的吧 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 140.112.121.108 (台湾) ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Mariners/M.1657861671.A.AC5.html ※ 编辑: JRODshow44 (140.112.121.108 台湾), 07/15/2022 13:11:25