http://www.ussmariner.com/2011/10/17/its-not-either-or/ 来自USSM，提到水兵季後补强的观念，个人觉得蛮值得借镜的， 特别是基於对大约球员烂掉的恐惧，以及不算特别宽裕的预算维持。 补进三个臭皮匠，可能真的能胜过买进一个诸葛亮。 正文开始： When I rolled out a few suggestions last week for low-cost players that I’d like to see the M’s go after, one of the common responses was that guys like Casey McGehee or Angel Pagan weren’t appreciably better than the younger players that were already here, with the idea being that the team shouldn’t bother bringing in any players who aren’t likely to provide significant upgrades at the team’s weak spots. This is one of the ideas that I most strongly disagree with, as it presents roster construction as a false choice of either this guy or that guy, when in reality, good teams give themselves the ability to have both. 当我上周列出了水手可以去追逐的几个低成本球员，普遍的回应是像Casey McGehee 与 Angel Pagan 这样的球员，并不比现有的年轻肉体强多少，水手不应该带进无法大幅改 善球队弱点的选手。这个『选某甲或选某乙是错误的』观点我非常难以苟同，事实上， 一支好的球队应该要某甲跟某乙两球员得兼。 For instance, let’s focus on third base for a second. Kyle Seager certainly has his supporters who feel that his performance last year should be enough to earn him regular playing time at the hot corner in 2012. As a guy whose only glaring flaw is his inability to hit left-handed pitching, he offers an overall package that projects as a +1 to +2 win player, and he could fill that spot for the league minimum. Because of his presence, quite a few people think the M’s should just leave third base alone and spend their resources elsewhere. 举三垒这个例子来说，许多人觉得 Kyle Seager 今年球季的表现足以让他在12'赢得固 定上场时间，除了不善面对左投这个缺点外， Seager 可被预估为一个+1胜到+2胜的球 员，而且他领的还是联盟底薪。不少人认为明年可以把三垒交给他，然後把钱投到别的 地方去。 The problem is that the choice at third base isn’t really Seager or McGehee (or any other similar type of player), but that in reality, it’s just Seager or Seager and McGehee. If the M’s decide to go into 2012 with Seager as the starting third baseman, then their options for a backup plan at the position become pretty limited. You’re not going to lure any useful role players to Seattle unless you dangle playing time in front of their face – they’re not coming for the winning atmosphere or the hitter friendly ballpark, that’s for sure – and if you give Seager the starting 3B job, you’re quickly out of carrots to get another decent third baseman onto the roster. 问题是三垒真正的选择不是在Seager 跟McGehee（或这型的球员）之间挑一个，而是只有 Seager跟 Seager+McGehee。如果水手决定Seager是12'开幕战的先发三垒，那麽三垒的备 胎选项就变得相当少。有用的角色球员，没有拿出上场时间引诱是拿不到的（可以确信他 们来西雅图可不是为了赢球气氛或是打者天堂的主场），如果给了Seager三垒的正宫名分 ，要补进另一个像样的三垒手就失去了筹码。 So, then, you’re hanging all of your hopes on Seager producing next year, and if he doesn’t, the team is basically screwed. Alex Liddi isn’t ready. I still like Luis Rodriguez, but if he’s the team’s starting third baseman for long stretches next year, something went very wrong. We could sit around hoping that Chone Figgins remembers how to hit, but I’m not holding my breath waiting for that while the coaching staff yells “AGGRESSIVENESS” at everyone who goes up to bat, and I’d imagine the team will try to move him in a bad contract swap this winter anyway. 接着只能指望Seager明年打出成绩了，如果他鸟掉了，那球队差不多就完了。Liddi 还没 准备好；虽然我喜欢 Luis Rodriguez 这个人，但如果他是明年固定的三垒手，代志就大 条了；我们可以期望Figgins 想起来怎麽打击，但在教练团对於每个上场打击的打者大吼 『攻击积极点！』的情况下，我还是不期不待的好，我可以想像这个冬天他会跟另一队的 大烂约来个交换。 The M’s simply have no depth at third base, so sticking with the status quo forces the team to put all of their eggs in one unproven basket. Despite the quantity of left fielders on the roster, I’d argue the team is in the same position out there, as Casper Wells is the only guy on the roster that looks like he should get any real playing time at the position next year, and he’s probably not good enough to be a full-time guy either. 基本上水手在三垒这个位置毫无深度可言，所以保持现状会逼着球队把所有鸡蛋投在同一 个未经证实可用的篮子里。左外野看似人满为患，但情况跟三垒差不多：Wells 是唯一看 起来能担大任的人，但作为一个全职外野手还不够好。 The M’s don’t just need one great hitter to “transform the line-up” – they need several decent hitters to stop them from running out a line-up full of black holes again. Here’s the team’s OPS by position in 2011, and where that ranked in MLB: 水手队不是只需要一个超级巨炮来让打线脱胎换骨，他们需要几个不错的棒子来避免打线 再一次地带着黑洞跟人家比拚。以下是打线在11'的OPS以及联盟排名： C : .616 (26th) 1B: .760 (20th) 2B: .736 (9th) SS: .659 (21st) 3B: .526 (30th) LF: .649 (26th) CF: .532 (30th) RF: .639 (30th) DH: .648 (14th of 14 AL teams) If you think one good hitting 1B/DH type is going to fix those problems, I don ’t know what to tell you. The team is basically locked into hoping for rebounds in CF/RF, as Gutierrez and Ichiro have established track records that suggest they should be significantly better and contracts that strongly push the team to give them another chance, but C/3B/LF are still going to be glaring holes even if you sign a guy like Prince Fielder. 如果你认为一个1B/DH 的强棒可以解决上面的问题，我不知道还有什麽好说的。右外野与 中外野基本上只能寄望现有球员，Gutierrez 跟一朗过去的纪录显示他们会大幅反弹，而 且他们的合约让球队被逼得只能在给他们机会，但纵使签下了小王子，捕手、三垒、左外 野还是大洞。 A significant part of the Mariners problems the last few years have been in having inadequate backup plans for when the guy being counted doesn’t perform. When the team got rid of Milton Bradley last year, they had to turn to Carlos Peguero because they didn’t have a Major League left fielder anywhere in the organization. When Chone Figgins showed he still couldn’t hit, the team turned to Adam Kennedy, and that went about as well as expected. When Miguel Olivo posted a .250 OBP, he still played everyday because the alternatives were Chris Gimenez and Josh Bard. 过去几年水手的主要问题是当季初设定倚赖的对象爆炸时，没有合适的备案。今年丢掉 Bradley後，因为没有合格的左外野手，球队得寄望Carlos Peguero；Figgins再度鸟掉 ，球队转向求助於Kennedy，结果事情走向跟预期的一样糟；Olivo的上垒率低到只剩两 成五却还是每天先发，因为他的替补是Gimenez跟Bard。 The 2012 Mariners should not go into the season so unprepared. It would be great if Seager showed he can hit enough to be a full-time player, Wells established himself as more than a fourth outfielder, Carp remembered how to take a base on balls once in a while, and Gutierrez and Ichiro rebounded to prior levels, but the reality is that the team cannot count on any of those things happening. They have to have realistic alternatives in place so that we don’t get another summer of ridiculous line-ups where Kennedy and Olivo are hitting back-to-back in the middle of the order. 2012 水手不应毫无准备地进入球季，Seager打出符合全职三垒手的成绩、Wells拿出了 超过四号外野手的身手、Carp 偶尔能靠选球上垒、Gutierrez与一朗反弹都是好事，但 事实是球队不能只依赖上述期望的发生，必须有其他务实的人选，这样我们才不会再看 见Kennedy与Olivo组成中心打线的殴打单。 Bringing in useful role players like McGehee, Snyder, and Pagan would provide depth that could insulate the team from having to rely on minor league players and guys that simply don’t belong in the big leagues in the first place. By simply going from atrocious to decent at a few positions, the team could get a more substantial offensive upgrade than they could by throwing huge gobs of cash at one player, no matter how good of a hitter he is. 补进像McGehee、Snyder、Pagan这类有用的角色球员，可以提供深度以免球队过早倚赖农 作物或是根本不符大联盟标准的球员，若数个位置的火力输出从糟透了升级到还不错的等 级，整支球队将会获得比砸大钱在单一球员（不管他有多强）身上更多的攻击力。 The Mariners can’t be an all-their-eggs-in-one-basket team anymore. They can ’t count on Prince Fielder to save their offense, and they can’t count on guys like Seager, Wells, or Carp to perform as regulars without any safety net. There’s spots for some of those guys on the roster, but the team has to make sure that the 2012 offense will still be decent whether those guys perform or not. They should be viewed as upside plays who can provide value in expanded roles if they earn those positions, but should not be counted on to be regular players from day one. 水手队已经没办法把鸡蛋全都丢在一个篮子里，不能期待一个Prince Fielder就能拯救打 线，也不能期待Seager、Wells、Carp 在没有保险的情况下持续担纲正规军，球队有他们 的位子，但不论他们能不能打好，必须确保整队明年的进攻火力还能保持水准，他们能够 胜任这些位置固然是一种加分，但不能期待他们从开幕战起就担当起主力。 It’s not either the kids or the veterans. This is a team that needs some veterans to make sure that the team doesn’t sink with the kids once again. 这不是一道年轻人与老练球员二择一的选择题，这支球队需要一些有经验的家伙来确保这 艘大船不会跟着年轻水手们再度沉没海底。 --

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