http://0rz.tw/QjdhW Suffice to say that, when the Mariners brought up Carlos Peguero and stuck him in an outfield platoon, most of us were fairly skeptical. We were excited to watch Peguero, because Peguero was a new young player and new young players are always exciting, but our hopes weren't very high, because as strong as Peguero is, he didn't exactly come with much of a minor league track record. In high-A, he struck out more than four times as often as he walked. In AA, he struck out more than three times as often as he walked. In AAA, he struck out nearly four times as often as he walked. Peguero was strong, but he was undisciplined and unpolished, and he looked like the kind of guy who'd come up, post an OBP around .220, and head back down, a discouraged shell of a man. 我只想说，当水手队拉上屁股肉进入外野位置，大部分的球迷都对他有些怀疑，青春 肉体总是令人兴奋，但我们对他的期待可没有太高，虽然他很强壮，但他小联盟的纪 录倒是不让人惊艳。在高阶 A，他的被三振数超过保送数的四倍，在AA，他的被三振 数超过保送数的三倍，在 AAA，他的被三振数则是接近保送数的四倍。他很强壮，但 是没有选球也尚待琢磨，感觉他会上来一下，交出.220左右的上垒率，然後就会回去 Tacoma。 And for some time, Peguero fulfilled our expectations. He hit a couple home runs, including a big one out of nowhere against Fausto Carmona that broke up a no-hitter, but at the end of May, his OBP was .210, and he had 22 strikeouts in 62 Major League trips to the plate. Peguero looked lost, and he looked like he was on the verge of returning to Tacoma, perhaps in exchange for Mike Carp. 有的时候，屁股肉达到了我们对他的期待，干了几炮、坏了 Carmona无安打的好事， 但到了五月底，他的上垒率是.210，62个打席里被Ｋ掉22次，他看起来有点迷惘，一 副要回 Tacoma 跟 Mike Carp 交换工作的样子。 Then things turned around a little bit. Peguero went deep twice against the Rays on June 2nd. Soon thereafter he posted a three-game hit streak, which is notable for a guy like him. And he started looking better to the eye. Over the past few weeks, Peguero has not only been a more successful hitter - he's looked like a more selective hitter. 但接着峰回路转，6/2 屁股肉对上光芒队双响，接着连三场安打，这对他来说可是值 得大书特书的事情，然後他的眼睛好像变利了，过去几周，屁股肉不仅是个更为进步 的打者，也是个更为有耐心的打者。 And it shows up in the numbers. Let's ignore Peguero's brief time with the team in April, and focus on his time as a semi-regular in May and June. Data comes courtesy of Fangraphs, with OSwing% referring to Peguero's rate of swings at pitches out of the zone, ZSwing% referring to Peguero's rate of swings at pitches in the zone, and Contact% referring to Peguero's rate of hitting the ball when he swings. 这东西在数据上显示了出来， 先略过短暂的四月不谈，把焦点放在他较为固定出赛的五六月。 Month O-Swing% Z-Swing% Contact% May 55% 79% 68% June 41% 75% 73% The first thing to know is that we're limited by the quality of the data, and the data isn't perfect. These numbers aren't necessarily 100% accurate. But they're close, and the sample sizes aren't tiny. 这数据有其限制亦非完美，但它们已经接近准确，样本数也不是太小。 And what we see is that Peguero has improved. The recent version of Peguero is still aggressive. He still has some of the higher swing rates in baseball. But in May, his O-Swing% was the highest. His overall Swing% was the highest. His Contact% was third-lowest. His June numbers don't stand out so much. His O-Swing% is high, but reasonable. His Contact% is low, but reasonable. 屁股肉进步了，最近的他出棒依旧积极，五月他的坏球出棒率（O-Swing%）跟出棒率 （Swing%）都是联盟最高、击中率（Contact%）则是倒数第三，六月他的数字就没那 麽扯了，O-Swing%很高但不吓人，Contact%还是很低但不会被人笑。 Carlos Peguero looks like he's learning, which goes along with the coaching staff's statements that he's proven to be coachable. Over the past few weeks, he has not been the mess that he was. 屁股肉看来正在学习，从教练团言论中屁股肉似乎颇为受教，过去几周，他不像先前 那样一团糟。 How much does it all mean? We'll have to see if this sticks, first of all. Improvements must not only be made, but sustained. Additionally, Peguero's still in a platoon, so it's not like he's suddenly emerging as a top young player. But we're looking at an aggressive, powerful 24-year-old who struck out 33% of the time in May, and 23% of the time so far in June. That's exciting, because Peguero's gotten better, and the improvement suggests he could get better still. 这代表什麽呢？我们得看看这现象能否维持。 屁股肉不是只有进步就好，还要持续进步，另外他仍受到 platoon 的保护，还不是个 突然冒出头的顶级年轻好手。但我们可以看见这个24岁的重炮手五月被三振率是33%， 六月则是降到了23%，这很令人兴奋，屁股肉的进步显示他可以越来越屌。 I'm not wild about Carlos Peguero, and I'm not convinced he has a great future in the Major Leagues, but I like him now more than I used to. There's a good player in there, and there are signs that the Mariners may be tracking him down. 我不是屁股肉的粉丝，也不觉得他为未来会吓吓叫，但我现在喜欢他更甚以往。水兵可 以好好盯着这个好手的发展了。 --

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