这篇在LL有点战起来的感觉。 我个人的看法是，除了像蔡阿甘那种动作一看就怪的， 想从投球动作上的微妙差异判断球员未来受伤的可能性， 这样的研究还有很长一段路要走。 Lincecum在major登场前球探怎麽说他的？ 大学时使用过度，再加上投球动作剧烈，受伤可能性很高， 现在他在major投上一整季了，没受伤成绩也很好， 突然这位Kyle Boddy作者说他的投球动作很理想了（至少比Morrow理想）。 话都是人在说的。 LL的讨论里提到一点就是， 下面这篇文章的作者，提到的都是“观点”与“假设”， 并没有“资料”，也就是没有数据可以证明投手这样投会容易受伤。 （这与过度使用不同，大量投球会导致受伤，是有资料可以佐证的。） 或许小违反人体工学是事实，但我们是活在科学时代， 人体工学这学门本身如果称得上是科学，那当然也是要被实验检验， 而违反人体工学与受伤之间的联结，当然也是需要有充份资料才可以建立。 在该文中，看不到资料，这是最大的问题。 LL提到的另一件事就是Wood与Prior的例子， 他们的投球动作很多人都喜欢，还不是受伤了？ 我不是说Morrow是个不会受伤的投手， 但我不认为现在的投球动作分析， 以经成熟到可以从投手出手前一个微小角度的差异， 就判断出这动作长期而言容易导致受伤。 如果作者能收集史上数千位投手的出手角度照片， 然後分析他们生涯的伤病史， 再得出这动作会让投手的受伤机会增加XX％的结论， 那才有说服力得多。 ※ 引述《abc12812 (Sudba tseloveka)》之铭言： : http://tinyurl.com/4yhz8h : by Kyle Boddy on Sep 10, 2008 9:59 AM PDT : Since David already did a great piece on Brandon Morrow's PITCHf/x analysis, : I'll just stick to his pitching mechanics. : Brandon Morrow stands 6'3" 185 lbs and was drafted 5th overall in the 2006 : MLB amateur draft by the Seattle Mariners. A RHP, Morrow primarily relies on : his plus fastball to get hitters out: : Morrow is known for his blistering fastball (with some pretty good movement), : but concerns have been raised about the long-term health of his arm, given : that he spent two weeks on the disabled list with a sore shoulder at the : beginning of 2008. : Let's take a look at those mechanics... : Below is the image that we'll use for analysis of his pitching mechanics: : This pitch was strike three to Manny Ramirez (then on the Red Sox), clocking : in at 99 mph on the Safeco Field radar gun. I have my doubts about it : actually being 99 mph, but that's another debate. : Astute readers will notice a few things right off the bat: : * He has a "plunge" arm action that is very similar to Tim Lincecum. : * He loads the arm horizontally in a "scapula loading" pattern. : * He makes the "Inverted L." : * He has significant flexion in the wrist, which Dr. Marshall calls : "grab." : * He has significant gloveside flyout. : Breaking it down further... : Tempo: Brandon Morrow is 20-21 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant. : This is Average, bordering on Good. : Arm Action: This is what Morrow looks like right before and at the point his : shoulders begin to turn: : There are a few things that are very troublesome about this sequence of : images. First of all, note how in the first frame that his arms are in the : classic "hung arm" pose that Tom House used to teach and is evident in : pitchers like Mark Prior, Anthony Reyes, and especially Barry Zito: : I used to think the tension in the wrist wasn't a big problem, but after : further research, I've concluded that the "grab" can cause "looping" (Dr. : Marshall's terms), which essentially lengthens the driveline to the target : and forces it in an arc, rather than a straight line. This part of Morrow's : arm action is prevalent when we take a closer look at his arm action: : Compare this with, say, Tim Lincecum: : Note how Lincecum's arm action is more direct to the plate, while Morrow's : "loops" back around and to the target due to his grab. Lincecum also is : closer to a vertical forearm at release, which is ideal, but that's a : different discussion entirely. : Morrow's arm is not vertical at footstrike / shoulder turn, as evidenced in : the hung arm animated sequence. This will increase the distance that his arm : passes through the external rotation phase and force it to lay back violently : - experiencing "forearm bounce." This will increase the stress on the UCL as : well as the Subscapularis and Supraspinatus in the shoulder. (Pitchers who : have significant forearm bounce are Joel Zumaya, Kerry Wood, and Billy : Wagner.) : Morrow's arm action is troubling. I would grade it Below Average. : Ball Release / Followthrough : Morrow points the PAS shoulder at the target fairly well, but he flies open : with his glove arm, just like Scott Kazmir. He also has an abrupt finish, : which is troubling and probably the result of not throwing against a firm : front side. However, Morrow mostly keeps his head still, which should help : with command/control of his pitches. : Overall, though, I don't like his deceleration. I think it's Below Average. : Conclusions : Mariners fans are pinning their hopes and dreams to this kid - and rightfully : so. He'll always be looked at as the kid taken over hometown hero Tim : Lincecum, and while his pure stuff might not be as good, it's certainly not : far behind. Unfortunately, there's a lot to worry about with Brandon Morrow : compared to Tim Lincecum - Morrow's late positioning at footstrike, his : "grab" in the arm action which leads to looping, and his poor followthrough : combined with a short history of shoulder problems leads me to wonder how : well off he'll be in the 2009 season when he'll be expected to make a full : season's worth of starts. : I would treat Brandon Morrow as a significant injury risk in his career, : though probably nothing serious will happen in the next few years. Morrow has : too many flaws to correct at this point; he is already an MLB-polished : pitcher with a lot of expectations placed on his golden arm. -- 孩子, 看到那苍蓝的小点了吗？ 那是我们的家...... --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 146.88.3.139 ※ 编辑: Epsilon 来自: 146.88.3.139 (09/15 07:29)