ESPN原文：Inside Skubal trade negotiations: Why Tigers chose Dodgers https://bit.ly/4wi59FM By Jeff Passan 非常长的文章 原文全文附在最後 以下由ChatGPT 翻译 Skubal 交易谈判内幕：为什麽老虎队选择道奇队 周六下午，电话开始打了出去，比原本预期的时间还早。底特律老虎队准备交易掉全世界最 好的投手，而他们需要还留在这场夏季最大棒球竞标中的球队，提出「最後且最佳报价」。 对於这些有意争取者究竟愿意拿出什麽来换取 29 岁左投手 Tarik Skubal，底特律并不清 楚。Skubal 已经连续两年拿下美联赛扬奖。不过在过去 24 小时里，老虎队已经全面了解 市场，并得到一个感觉：有不只一支球队愿意满足他们的要价。 与其等到周一美东时间晚上 6 点的交易截止时间，让各队互相竞价、炒高报价，他们更希 望直接完成交易。 当天稍早，消息开始在各支球团高层之间流传，西雅图水手队正在听取右投 George Kirby 的交易报价。Kirby 的表现虽然远不及 Skubal，但他要到 2028 年球季结束後才会成为自 由球员。 相较之下，Skubal 预计在本季结束後成为自由球员。老虎队知道，他们可以用 Skubal 剩 下大约 10 场例行赛先发，以及最理想情况下季後赛再增加 5 场先发，换来一大批优秀的 年轻球员。 但他们也担心，如果拖得太久，原本最有可能的交易对象可能会转而选择像 Kirby 这种还 有多年球团控制权的投手，进而让 Skubal 的交易市场崩盘。 根据超过十位直接参与 Skubal 交易谈判的人士透露，这些担忧确实是有根据的。各队都不 愿意把整个交易截止日前的计画押在取得 Skubal 的可能性上，因为一旦最後没有抢到他， 到了美东时间下午 6 点 01 分，他们可能会什麽都没拿到。 当时的谈判已经让参与其中的球队感到不安。在棒球所有交易市场中——自由球员市场、休 赛季交易、选秀、国际自由球员市场——没有任何一个市场像交易截止日前这麽膨胀。 想要补强的球队都知道，他们的分析模型可能会认为，光是考虑这些预期价值如此负面的交 易，就已经够蠢了。 但如果能得到这项运动最顶级的王牌投手，确实足以让球队突破平常的限制，但还不足以让 那些一向有纪律的球队失去理智。 消息人士表示，不论 Skubal 对任何一支争冠球队或世界大赛之旅可能产生多大的影响，参 与谈判的球队都不愿意在自己最初提出的报价上让步太多。 所以，当老虎队棒球营运总裁 Scott Harris 在周六下午打电话通知各个有意争取的球队， 告知他们底特律的时间安排时，各队都明白接下来会发生什麽事。 Skubal 基本上会透过「盲标」的方式被交易出去。有些球队提出多套交易方案，以免把自 己限制在单一选项上；其他球队则直接丢出自己最好的筹码，然後祈祷结果。 最终，洛杉矶道奇队成为胜利者，其实并不令人意外。这就是他们的做法，这就是他们。 尽管道奇队在理性上非常不喜欢在交易截止日前进行高额交易，但他们已经成为全大联盟最 擅长这件事的球队——从 Yu Darvish、Manny Machado，到 Max Scherzer 和 Trea Turner 都是如此。 因为他们拥有非常充足的资源，即使进行一些价值为负的交易，也不会承受太严重的後果。 尽管密尔瓦基酿酒人和坦帕湾光芒都拥有大量小联盟人才，亚特兰大勇士、纽约洋基和 芝 加哥小熊也都愿意为了 Skubal 开出高於合理价值的代价，但没有任何一支球队能同时拿出 像道奇一样，既符合底特律需求的球员筹码，又愿意把这些筹码拿出来。 所以，最後又是道奇队。 就像 Kyle Tucker、Roki Sasaki、Tanner Scott、Yoshinobu Yamamoto 和 Shohei Ohtani 的情况一样。 又是道奇队，再次提醒其他 29 支球队：只要棒球界顶级的天才球员有机会被交易到手，洛 杉矶就不会只是旁观者。 大家对道奇队的厌恶——他们延後支付的薪资、透过一份对他们极为有利的电视转播合约来 避开部分收益分成的金额，以及他们对整个棒球界所拥有的控制力——似乎每次都已经到了 顶点。 但接着，他们又补进另一位明星球员，外界的抱怨声便再次响起，尽管道奇队所做的一切都 符合劳资协议的规范。 无论这对那些认为道奇队正在毁掉棒球的人来说是多麽沉重的一击，也不论外界对这笔交易 存在多少阴谋论，这说到底就只是一笔棒球交易，而这笔交易之所以能够成行，其实是经过 数个月的酝酿。 过去两个月，老虎队一直希望能避免走到周六这一步。 他们不仅在休赛季期间留住了 Skubal——当时很多人认为他们会把他交易掉，因为球团老 板 Chris Ilitch 完全没有打算在自由球员市场上，保证给 Skubal 他预计能拿到的超过 4 亿美元合约——他们还签下自由球员 Framber Valdez，并让顶级新秀 Kevin McGonigle 进入开季名单。他们以美联中区的强力热门身分进入球季。 然而，Skubal 在 5 月 7 日接受手术，移除手肘内的骨头碎片。当时老虎队正处於 6 胜 2 2 败的低潮，这也是球团史上最惨的一个月之一。 这让球队陷入一个始终没能完全弥补的落後局面。即使不算 5 月的比赛，老虎队在美联拥 有最佳战绩，也是大联盟最佳得失分差的球队，依然无法改变结果。 5 月已经发生，而它注定了老虎队的命运。 不过，老虎队直到 7 月 29 日，也就是交易截止日前五天，才真正下定决心要交易 Skubal 。那场比赛是 Skubal 的最後一次先发，老虎队一度取得 7 比 0 领先，最後却在 12 局遭 Baltimore Orioles 逆转输球，让底特律战绩跌至 51 胜 58 败。 到了这个时候，球团高层评估了球队不只是把 Skubal 留到球季结束，甚至围绕他进行补强 的可能性。 但老虎队当时在排名上的位置，让答案非常明确：不行。 尤其是交易 Skubal 和其他球员，至少能换回 1 亿美元的剩余价值，而且很可能还会更多 ，这种情况下就更没有理由继续留下他。 其实，他们几周前就已经开始为两种可能性做准备，包括讨论球队需求、潜在交易对象以及 策略。 当真正开始讨论 Skubal 的交易时，Harris 已经知道自己想要谁，而且如果对方无法接受 他的要求，他也不打算浪费任何人的时间。 如果光芒想加入 Skubal 的竞争，他们就必须把球队头号新秀、外野手 Theo Gillen 放进 交易。 Gillen 是 2024 年选秀第 18 顺位选中的球员，被认为是一次非常成功的选秀选择，而 20 24 年选秀甚至可能与 2005 年选秀竞争本世纪最佳选秀。 但坦帕湾光芒的球团运作理念仰赖自家培养、低薪合约的年轻球员，因此他们拒绝让 Gille n 成为交易筹码。 至於他们排名第二、第三的新秀——捕手 Caden Bodine 和 Nathan Flewelling——又都与 底特律的 Dillon Dingler 同守捕手，而 Dingler 被认为是棒球界最好的捕手。 因此，光芒争取 Skubal 的机会，在真正开始之前就已经结束了。 洋基队也曾参与讨论，不过他们不愿意放弃游击手 George Lombard Jr.，让他们在谈判中 处於劣势。 勇士队没有像 Gillen 或 Lombard 那样的顶级新秀，但他们拥有足够的年轻先发投手，至 少能设法加入这场讨论。 小熊队非常需要先发投手，也很快就意识到，他们手上的筹码并不符合底特律想要的回报。 而老虎队要的也不一定是一名能立即进入大联盟的先发投手，以及一名即将升上大联盟的打 者。 与外界一些说法不同，老虎队并没有要求特定守备位置的球员。他们锁定的是各种不同类型 的人才，而这也让两支球队逐渐从竞争者中脱颖而出。 对密尔瓦基来说，能让 Skubal 与今年表现最好的投手 Jacob Misiorowski 组成搭档，并 真正成为道奇队的强力阻碍，让酿酒人队在交易截止日前充满动力。 酿酒人队已经建立起一支强大的球队——连续三年拿下分区冠军，过去八年有七次打进季後 赛——即使他们的团队薪资一直位居大联盟最低的一群。 道奇队目前的现金薪资总额为 3.39 亿美元，还要面对接近 1.8 亿美元的豪华税帐单；酿 酒人队整支球队的薪资总额则只有 1.44 亿美元。 酿酒人队马上告诉底特律，他们不会把 19 岁游击手 Jesús Made 放进交易。Made 是目前 棒球界排名第一的新秀。 但密尔瓦基的小联盟人才深度还要更深。 进入交易截止日前，ESPN 新秀分析师 Kiley McDaniel 的百大新秀榜单中，有七名酿酒人 球员。两名美联高层也表示，他们球团内部的榜单同样有七名。 因此，酿酒人队列出的非卖品不只有 Made。 他们不会交易游击手 Cooper Pratt 或外野手 Luis Lara，两人都在大联盟初登场前就签下 长约。 右投 Logan Henderson 也不能交易，他还有五年的球团控制权。 酿酒人的交易作战室里，有主张全力冲击的派系、有主张维持现状的坚定派，也有介於两者 之间的人。 他们不断反覆进行着同样痛苦的内心挣扎： 「我们必须放手一搏……但如果失败了呢？如果就像 2008 年高调交易来左投王牌 CC Saba thia 後一样，最後又在季後赛第一轮崩盘呢？」 当然，另一支虎视眈眈的球队就是道奇队。 尽管洛杉矶每年都在第一轮後段才进行选秀，他们仍然建立起一套能与密尔瓦基和坦帕湾竞 争、被视为全大联盟最顶级的小联盟农场体系。 他们透过国际签约做到这一点。（洛杉矶很明确表示，他们不会交易自家排名第一的新秀、 21 岁的 Josue De Paula。这名出生於布鲁克林的外野手，16 岁时从多明尼加共和国签下 。） 他们也透过交易做到这一点。（外野手 Mike Sirota 就是透过 Gavin Lux 的交易来到道奇 体系；Lux 则是道奇队自己选进并培养的球员。） 他们也透过选秀做到这一点。（他们去年第一轮选中的左投 Zach Root，目前已经升上 2A 。） 即使老虎队不一定需要一套各方面均衡的交易包裹，他们还是比较偏好这样的方案。而在所 有球队之中，洛杉矶最能满足这项需求。 道奇队有 9 名小联盟外野手，如果放到其他任何一支球队，至少都有两、三人能成为该队 最好的外野手之一。 他们有已经准备好进入大联盟的投手——28 岁、球速很快的右投 River Ryan，以及 26 岁 右投 Emmet Sheehan——还有另一名具备王牌投手上限的球员：21 岁的 Christian Zazuet a，他是道奇队透过与洋基队交易 Caleb Ferguson 得到的。 道奇队也有大量内野选项，包括游击手 Emil Morales、二垒／游击手 Kellon Lindsey，以 及三垒手 Chase Harlan。 所有这些交易方案与可能性，都让其他球团高层几乎一致认为，道奇队最终会拿下 Skubal 。 因为除了人才之外，道奇队对於进行负价值交易的任何顾虑，都明显被他们追求成为史上第 一支连续三年拿下世界大赛冠军的国联球队这个目标压过去了。 对老虎队来说，这些都不重要。 光是接受自己必须交易 Skubal 这件事就已经够困难了。 他可以去洛杉矶，也可以去密尔瓦基——就算他最後跑去土星拿冠军戒指，老虎队也无所谓 。 他们只想从自己 2026 年最不幸的球季中，尽可能挽回一些东西。 而当当天傍晚早些时候，各队的报价开始陆续送进来时，他们知道自己至少能从中找到一些 值得欣慰的地方。 道奇队的交易包裹包括 Ryan、外野手 Zyhir Hope，以及高阶 1A 右投 Brady Smith。 密尔瓦基的方案则由 19 岁游击手 Luis Peña 领军——大多数公开的新秀榜单都将他评为 全大联盟前 20 名的新秀——另外还包括两名球员。 当天傍晚，Harris 与 Ilitch、总经理 Jeff Greenberg，以及球团其他核心高层开会，讨 论每一份报价的价值。 老虎队在 Tulsa 2A 比赛开打前大约 10 分钟达成共识。当时 Hope 正准备出赛。 和 Ryan 一样，Hope 也是一名评价非常高的新秀，有些人认为他是全大联盟前 50 名，也 有人认为他的排名更接近前 100 名的後段。 Harris 打电话给道奇队棒球营运总裁 Andrew Friedman，告诉他们：「我们成交了。」 但他只需要 Friedman 做一件事： 打电话把 Hope 从 Tulsa 的先发名单中撤下来。 因为他即将成为一名老虎队球员。 当 Tulsa 宣布 Hope 临时退出比赛後，整个棒球界立刻开始提高警觉。 也许他身体哪里不舒服。也许只是生病了。 他确实有可能成为某笔交易的一部分，但就算如此，也不代表这笔交易就是为了换取 Skuba l。 大家其实只是在不断猜测，而随着 Tulsa 始终没有对 Hope 缺席做出任何解释，一个越来 越明显的事实也逐渐浮现： 洛杉矶道奇队已经拥有一套人才满载的先发轮值，而他们即将得到自 1999 年 Roger Cleme ns 之後，第一位在连续两年拿下赛扬奖後被交易的投手。 老虎队和道奇队交换了球员的医疗纪录，并让双方队医开始进行检查。 将近三个小时的时间里，他们仔细检视相关文件与影像检查结果。 Skubal 的手臂对道奇队队医 Neal ElAttrache 来说并不陌生。今年 5 月，他就是使用新 的 NanoScope 技术处理 Skubal 的手肘问题，让他原本预期的复原时间缩短了一半。 Skubal 在 Sacramento 的比赛进行到一半时，离开老虎队休息区，与队友们告别。 在休息室里，他收到消息：医疗检查已经通过，他即将成为道奇队球员。 其他参与交易的球员也在差不多同一时间收到消息。 美东时间晚上 11 点 31 分，这笔交易正式对外公布。 在洛杉矶大都会区以外，随之而来的是一片强烈的厌恶。 为什麽又是道奇队？为什麽总是道奇队？ 而他们真的只需要付出这些，就能得到全棒球界最好的投手吗？ 一个 28 岁的「新秀」？ Ryan 原本是内野工具人，也曾在 NCAA 第二级的 UNC-Pembroke 尝试投球。他大学毕业後 在第 11 轮被圣地牙哥教士队选中，并在亚利桑那联盟为教士队担任游击手出赛 12 场。 隔年春训，在他甚至还没投出任何一颗职业球之前，圣地牙哥就把 Ryan 交易到道奇队，换 来 Matt Beaty。Beaty 在教士队的打击率只有 .093，最终球季 9 月就被释出。 道奇队将 Ryan 改造成全职投手，而在他的第一个球季，他在 47⅔ 局中送出 70 次三振。 2023 年，他升上 3A，接着在 2024 年曾短暂待在大联盟，先发 4 场，在 20⅓ 局中缴出 1.33 防御率，之後在 2024 年 8 月接受 Tommy John 手术。 他今年回归，虽然在对打者较有利的太平洋岸联盟中防御率为 4.46，但他在 36⅓ 局中送 出 43 次三振、只有 8 次保送，而且仅被敲出 1 支全垒打，这些数据都显示他的未来可能 会更好。 投手本身就是一个风险很高的族群，而 Ryan 的伤病史——今年又受到腿後腱问题限制—— 让他更容易成为交易对象。 尽管存在这些疑虑，而且过去十年总共只投了 329⅔ 局，老虎队仍然非常想要 Ryan。 因为如果他能保持健康、稳定出赛，他的球路——五种球种的组合，包括接近 100 英里的 速球，以及曲球、变速球、滑球和卡特球——会让他成为像 De Paula 一样，对方连问都不 必问的非卖品。 而现在，他反而成为这笔交易的核心。 Ryan 和 deGrom 有些相似。deGrom 同样是大学游击手，在晚轮选秀被选中後转为全职投手 ；Ryan 也同样获得球探与数据模型对其球种组合的极高评价。 现在唯一阻挡他成为顶级投手的，就只有健康状况。 把 Ryan 加入一套已经拥有两名年轻、还有多年球团控制权的先发投手——Troy Melton 和 Jackson Jobe，两人都能投出超过 100 英里的速球——再加上 Valdez，以及即将回归的 Reese Olson 或 Keider Montero，这样的先发轮值对老虎队来说非常有吸引力。 Hope 也是如此。他身高 5 尺 10 寸、体重 230 磅，是一名肌肉结实的球员，去年春训曾 深蹲 850 磅。未来他有机会与顶级中外野新秀 Max Clark，以及三度入选明星赛的左外野 手 Riley Greene 一起组成外野阵容。 再加上内野阵容——包括新秀全明星游击手 McGonigle、正值巅峰期的明星捕手 Dingler， 以及一批已经接近大联盟的球员（守一垒的 Josue Briceño、前首轮选秀 Bryce Rainer， 以及可以守二垒或三垒的 Max Anderson）——如此一来，就更容易理解道奇队的交易包裹 为什麽如此吸引老虎队。 多名参与谈判的球团高层都承认，即使他们认为自己的交易方案更好，一个理性的人也完全 可以理解为什麽底特律更偏好洛杉矶的方案。 这些球员不只是有实力。 他们符合底特律的需求。 提早交易 Skubal，也让老虎队可以把注意力集中在处理他的轮值搭档 Casey Mize。 Mize 最终在周一交易截止日前的最後几分钟被送往圣地牙哥，换来左投 Kash Mayfield。 Mayfield 是前首轮选秀球员，他加入老虎队後，将与 Ben Jacobs 和 Andrew Sears 一起 成为球团内两名持续受到看好的左投新秀。 老虎队并没有把所有即将成为自由球员的球员都交易掉。 他们选择让 Gleyber Torres、Jack Flaherty 和 Kenley Jansen 继续留队，继续争取美联 的外卡席次——而今年的美联甚至出现了一支胜率不到五成的季後赛球队。 被拒绝後，酿酒人队转向右投 Dustin May 来填补先发轮值的空缺。 他们从圣路易红雀队交易得到 May 和左投牛棚投手 JoJo Romero，送出的筹码则是两名快 速崛起的新秀：外野手 Alexander Frias 和 Josiah Ragsdale。 虽然密尔瓦基曾考虑付出极高代价，从圣地牙哥教士队换来全世界最好的终结者 Mason Mil ler，但最终这仍然是一笔非常符合酿酒人风格的交易截止日前操作。 密尔瓦基之後持续赢球，超越洛杉矶成为国联第一种子。 不过真正的考验会是在 10 月。 届时酿酒人队可能有机会复仇去年被道奇队在国联冠军赛横扫的耻辱，而如果要做到这一点 ，他们也必须跨过 Skubal 这一关。 这正是大联盟薪资差距带来的後果之一： 它迫使那些几乎每件事都做对的球队——例如酿酒人和光芒——必须一直思考一个问题： 「真的、真的全力争冠，值得吗？」 而答案几乎总是否定的。 不论这样的情况到底是对是错，这就是酿酒人队将带着进入 10 月的现实。 届时他们会派出 Misiorowski、May 和 Kyle Harrison 的投手阵容，希望这样的配置足以 击败那支再次掌控交易截止日的超级强权。 以下原文 THE CALLS WENT out Saturday afternoon, earlier than anticipated. The Detroit Tig ers were ready to trade the best pitcher in the world, and they needed best-and- final offers from the teams still involved in the biggest baseball sweepstakes o f the summer. Exactly what those suitors were willing to surrender for Tarik Skubal, the 29-ye ar-old left-hander who has won back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards, Det roit didn't know. But over the previous 24 hours, the Tigers had canvassed the m arket and emerged with the sense that multiple teams were willing to meet their asking price. Rather than wait until the 6 p.m. ET deadline Monday to shop offer s and pit teams against one another and create a bidding war, they wanted to mov e. Earlier in the day, word filtered around front offices that the Seattle Mariners were listening on right-hander George Kirby, a pitcher whose performance paled compared with Skubal's but who won't reach free agency until after the 2028 seas on. Skubal, on the other hand, is slated to hit free agency after the season. Th e Tigers knew they were primed to land a haul of talent for what amounted to 10 regular-season starts by Skubal and, best-case scenario, five more in the postse ason -- and they feared if they waited too long, their best options could opt fo r a pitcher like Kirby with multiple years of control and potentially collapse t he Skubal market. Such fears, according to conversations with more than a dozen people directly in volved in the Skubal discussions, were well-founded. Teams were reluctant to sta ke their entire deadline on the possibility of acquiring Skubal, lest they find themselves on the losing end and reach 6:01 p.m. empty-handed. Already the discussions were making involved teams uncomfortable. Of all the mar kets in baseball -- free agency, offseason trades, draft, international free age ncy -- none is as inflated as the trade deadline. Teams looking to add do so kno wing their analytical models will suggest they're goobers for even entertaining the prospect of deals with such negative expected value. The prospect of adding the sport's premier ace calmed such concerns enough to stretch beyond typical li mitations but not enough to put disciplined teams on tilt. Regardless of Skubal' s potential impact on any pennant race or World Series run, sources said, no tea m involved in the discussions was willing to budge much from the offer it had pr esented in the cursory stages of talks. So when Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris placed the calls Sa turday afternoon to inform the suitors of Detroit's timing, they understood what lay ahead. Skubal would essentially go via blind bidding. Some teams presented multiple concepts so as not to pigeonhole themselves. Others fired their best bo lts and said a prayer. In the end, that the Los Angeles Dodgers emerged the winners came as little surp rise. This is what they do. This is who they are. And as much as the Dodgers int ellectually loathe the idea of big-ticket deadline dealing, they have become bas eball's foremost practitioner of the craft -- from Yu Darvish to Manny Machado t o Max Scherzer and Trea Turner -- because their abundant resources allow them to operate in a value-negative space without severe consequences. For all the mino r league talent the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays possess, all the appeti te the Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs had to overpay for S kubal, no team matched the Dodgers' combination of talent that appealed to Detro it and a willingness to spend it. And so it was the Dodgers, again, as it was with Kyle Tucker and Roki Sasaki and Tanner Scott and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani. It was the Dodgers, agai n, reminding the other 29 teams that L.A. won't be an observer when one of the g ame's great talents can be had. The loathing of the Dodgers -- the salaries they've deferred, the money they've shielded from revenue sharing through a sweetheart TV deal, the stranglehold the y possess over the game -- always seems as if it has apexed. And then, they add another star, and the caterwauling reemerges, despite the fact that the Dodgers are doing everything within the parameters of the collective bargaining agreemen t. No matter how crushing a blow to those who claim the Dodgers are ruining basebal l and regardless of what conspiracy theories exist about the deal, it was, very simply, a baseball trade, and how it came to be was months in the making. FOR THE PAST two months, the Tigers had hoped to avoid Saturday. Not only had th ey held on to Skubal through the offseason -- when many thought they'd deal him because owner Chris Ilitch had zero intentions of guaranteeing him the $400 mill ion-plus he's set to command in free agency -- they added free agent Framber Val dez and elevated top prospect Kevin McGonigle onto their Opening Day roster. The y entered the season as heavy favorites in the pitiable AL Central. Then, Skubal had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow May 7, amid the Tig ers' 6-22 record that constituted one of the worst months in franchise history. It created a deficit from which the Tigers never fully recovered. It didn't matt er that in games outside of May, the Tigers have the AL's best record and MLB's best run differential. May happened, and it doomed them. Still, the Tigers didn't fully commit to unloading Skubal until July 29, five da ys before the deadline, when they blew a 7-0 lead in Skubal's final start and lo st in 12 innings to the Baltimore Orioles, dropping Detroit to 51-58. At that po int, the front office weighed the team's case not to just keep Skubal through th e end of the season but add around him. The Tigers' place in the standings made that a straightforward no -- not when trading away Skubal and others would net a t least $100 million in surplus value and, likely, more. They had started preparing weeks earlier for both scenarios, discussing prioriti es, potential suitors and strategy. When the time to discuss a Skubal deal arriv ed, Harris knew whom he wanted, and he did not intend to waste anyone's time if they were not comfortable with his demands. For the Rays to be in the mix, they needed to include their top prospect, outfie lder Theo Gillen, a first-round steal taken with the No. 18 pick in a 2024 draft that might rival 2005 as the best this century. Tampa Bay, whose operating phil osophy requires homegrown talent on inexpensive deals, declined to make Gillen a vailable. With their second- and third-best prospects (catchers Caden Bodine and Nathan Flewelling) sharing a position with Detroit's Dillon Dingler, the best c atcher in baseball, the Rays' chances at landing Skubal ended before they really began. The Yankees dabbled in the conversations, though their unwillingness to cede sho rtstop George Lombard Jr. handicapped them. The Braves didn't have a standout pr ospect such as Gillen or Lombard, but they possessed enough young starting pitch ing to at least wheedle their way into the conversation. The Cubs desperately ne eded starting pitching -- and recognized quickly they lacked what Detroit sought in return. And that wasn't necessarily a major-league-ready starting pitcher and a close-to -the-big-leagues hitter. Contrary to suggestions otherwise, the Tigers were not demanding position-specific returns. They targeted talent of any manner and vari ety, and it led to two teams separating themselves from the pack. For Milwaukee, the opportunity to pair Skubal with Jacob Misiorowski, the best p itcher in baseball this season, and offer a real hurdle for the Dodgers animated the Brewers' trade deadline. The front office had built a juggernaut -- three c onsecutive division titles, seven playoff spots in eight years -- despite rankin g among the lowest payrolls in baseball. The Dodgers carry a cash payroll of $33 9 million and face a luxury tax bill of nearly $180 million. The Brewers' entire team is making $144 million. The Brewers immediately told Detroit they wouldn't include 19-year-old shortstop Jesús Made, the No. 1 prospect in baseball, but Milwaukee's minor league depth ran far deeper. Going into deadline season, ESPN prospect analyst Kiley McDanie l's top 100 list featured seven Brewers. Two AL executives said their internal l ists included seven, too. Accordingly, the Brewers' list of untouchables went be yond Made. They wouldn't move shortstop Cooper Pratt or outfielder Luis Lara, bo th of whom signed long-term contracts before their major league debuts. Right-ha nder Logan Henderson, with five more years of club control, was off-limits as we ll. Inside the Brewers' war room were go-for-it advocates, stay-the-course dogmatist s and those in between, recycling the same tortured inner monologue ad infinitum : We have to go for it ... but what if it doesn't work? What if, like after the ballyhooed 2008 acquisition of left-handed ace CC Sabathia, it winds up just the same, with a first-round playoff collapse? The other team lurking, of course, was the Dodgers. Despite picking at the back end of the first round every year, Los Angeles has still built a farm system tha t rivals Milwaukee's and Tampa Bay's as the game's finest. They did it via inter national signings. (Los Angeles was clear it would not deal its own No. 1 prospe ct, 21-year-old Josue De Paula, a Brooklyn-born outfielder signed at 16 out of t he Dominican Republic.) They did it through trades. (Outfielder Mike Sirota came to the organization in a deal for Gavin Lux, whom the Dodgers had drafted and d eveloped.) They did it in the draft. (Their first pick last year, left-hander Za ch Root, is already at Double-A.) Even if the Tigers didn't necessarily need a balanced package, they preferred on e. And of all the teams, Los Angeles could best fulfill that desire. The Dodgers had nine minor league outfielders who would be among the two or three best at t he position in every other organization. They had major-league-ready pitchers (h ard-throwing 28-year-old right-hander River Ryan and 26-year-old right-hander Em met Sheehan) and another with ace-caliber ceiling (21-year-old Christian Zazueta , acquired in a trade with the Yankees for Caleb Ferguson). The Dodgers had plen ty of infield options: shortstop Emil Morales, middle infielder Kellon Lindsey a nd third baseman Chase Harlan. All of the packages and possibilities led to near-unanimity among other front of fices that the Dodgers would ultimately land Skubal. Because beyond the talent, any qualms they might harbor about negative-value trades are decidedly outweighe d by their quest to become the first NL team in history to win three consecutive World Series. To the Tigers, none of that mattered. Resigning themselves to trading Skubal was difficult enough. He could go to Los Angeles, he could go to Milwaukee -- he co uld get his ring on Saturn, for all they cared. They simply wanted to salvage a piece of their most unfortunate 2026. And when the offers started rolling in ear ly in the evening, they knew they would find some silver lining. The Dodgers' package included Ryan, outfielder Zyhir Hope and High-A right-hande r Brady Smith. Milwaukee's, headlined by 19-year-old shortstop Luis Peña -- reg arded by most public lists as a top-20 prospect in the game -- included two othe r players, too. In the early evening, Harris met with Ilitch, general manager Je ff Greenberg and the rest of the team's brain trust to debate the merits of each offer. The Tigers reached consensus about 10 minutes before first pitch at Double-A Tul sa, where Hope -- like Ryan, a prospect seen by some as top 50 in the game and o thers closer to the back end of top 100 lists -- was scheduled to play. Harris c alled Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers' president of baseball operations, and told h im they had a deal. He needed just one thing: for Friedman to get on the phone a nd yank Hope from Tulsa's lineup. He was about to be a Tiger. When Tulsa announced that Hope was scratched, antennae around baseball went up. Maybe he tweaked something. Perhaps he was under the weather. He could be part o f a deal, but even that didn't mean it was for Skubal. Really, it was just dart- throwing around the increasingly obvious truth that grew ever clearer when Tulsa offered no explanation for Hope's absence: The Los Angeles Dodgers, already fea turing a rotation larded with talent, were about to land the first reigning back -to-back Cy Young winner to be traded since Roger Clemens in 1999. The Tigers and Dodgers exchanged medical records and put their team doctors to w ork. For nearly three hours, they scrutinized documents and imaging. Skubal's ar m was already familiar to Dodgers team doctor Neal ElAttrache, who in May had us ed new NanoScope technology to clean up Skubal's elbow and halve the typical ret urn time to the field. Skubal left the Tigers' bench with teammates in the middl e of their game in Sacramento. Inside the clubhouse, he received word that the m edicals cleared and he was going to be a Dodger. The other players involved rece ived word around the same time, and at 11:31 p.m. ET, the news broke publicly. Outside of greater Los Angeles, utter disgust followed. Why the Dodgers? Why alw ays the Dodgers? And was this really all they had to give up to land the sport's best pitcher? A 28-year-old "prospect"? A middle infielder who dabbled in pitching at Division II UNC-Pembroke, Ryan was drafted in the 11th round after his senior year by the San Diego Padres, for wh om he played a dozen games at shortstop in the Arizona Complex League. The next spring, before he had thrown a professional pitch, San Diego traded Ryan to the Dodgers for Matt Beaty, who hit .093 for the Padres before they cut ties with hi m in September. The Dodgers converted Ryan to a full-time pitcher, and in his first season, he s truck out 70 in 47⅔ innings. He made it to Triple-A in 2023, then spent a four- start stint with the big league club in 2024, posting a 1.33 ERA in 20⅓ innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2024. He returned this year, and though his ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League is 4.46, his 43 stri keouts and eight walks with only one home run allowed in 36⅓ innings suggest be tter times are ahead. Pitchers are an inherently risky population, and Ryan's injury history -- this y ear, hamstring issues have limited him -- made him even more accessible. Despite those concerns and only 329⅔ innings thrown over the past decade, the Tigers c oveted Ryan. Because if he were consistently healthy, his stuff -- a five-pitch mix, with a fastball that tickles 100 mph, plus a curveball, changeup, slider an d cutter -- would have put Ryan, who shares some similarities to a young Jacob d eGrom, on the don't-bother-asking list with De Paula. Instead, he is the fulcrum of this deal. Similar to deGrom, a college shortstop who converted to pitching full time after being selected with a late-round draft pick, Ryan gets off-the-c harts grades on his arsenal from scouts and models. Only health stands between h im and excellence. Adding him to a rotation that already features a pair of young, controllable sta rters with triple-digit fastballs (Troy Melton and Jackson Jobe), plus Valdez an d the returning Reese Olson or Keider Montero, sounded awfully appealing to the Tigers. As did eventually slotting Hope -- a 5-foot-10, 230-pound bundle of musc le who last spring squatted 850 pounds -- alongside top center field prospect Ma x Clark and three-time All-Star left fielder Riley Greene. Pair the rotation and outfield with an infield that includes a rookie All-Star s hortstop in McGonigle, an All-Star catcher in his prime in Dingler and a near-bi g-league-ready group (Josue Briceño at first base, former first-rounder Bryce R ainer in the middle infield and Max Anderson at second or third) and it becomes easier to understand the appeal of the Dodgers' package. Multiple executives inv olved in the discussions acknowledged that even if they believed theirs was supe rior, a reasonable person could understand why Detroit preferred Los Angeles'. T he players aren't just good. They fit Detroit's needs. Moving Skubal early allowed the Tigers to focus on dealing his rotation mate Cas ey Mize, who went to San Diego in a deal for left-hander Kash Mayfield in the fi nal minutes Monday. A former first-rounder, Mayfield joins Ben Jacobs and Andrew Sears, two up-arrow lefty pitching prospects in the Tigers' organization. The T igers did not trade all their impending free agents, content to allow Gleyber To rres, Jack Flaherty and Kenley Jansen to continue competing for a wild-card slot in an American League that features a playoff team with a record below .500. The Brewers, spurned, pivoted to right-hander Dustin May to fill their rotation void, acquiring him and left-handed reliever JoJo Romero from the St. Louis Card inals for a pair of breakout prospects: outfielders Alexander Frias and Josiah R agsdale. While Milwaukee toyed with the idea of paying an obscene price to get t he best closer in the world, Mason Miller, from San Diego, it wound up a very Br ewers-like deadline. Milwaukee has continued winning since, overtaking Los Angel es for the top seed in the NL. The litmus test, though, will be October, when th e Brewers could be in position to avenge last year's embarrassing NLCS sweep by the Dodgers -- and will need to get through Skubal to do so. This, as much as anything, is the consequence of the game's payroll gap: It forc es teams that do almost everything right, such as the Brewers and Rays, to spend their existence considering whether really, really trying to win is worth it. T he answer, almost always, is no. And regardless of whether that's right or wrong , it's the existence the Brewers will carry into October, when they'll march out Misiorowski, May and Kyle Harrison and hope it's enough to topple a juggernaut that once again owned the trade deadline. -- Sent from my iPhone 17 Pro ○ PiTT // PHJCI -- #5 Freddie Freeman 2024 World Series MVP https://i.imgur.com/zx0sPiN.jpeg https://bit.ly/4kArcTj https://bit.ly/4dz7VP6 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 42.79.172.238 (台湾) ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/MLB/M.1786118539.A.3F5.html ※ ProducerChen:转录至看板 Dodgers 08/08 00:02