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来源: The New York Times 网址: https://tinyurl.com/y7axrau7 It’s October Baseball, When Relievers Are More Popular Than Pumpkins 十月的棒球,救援投手比南瓜还要抢手 BOSTON — Once upon a time, in a big playoff game between the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, a starting pitcher hung around too long. This may be shocking to younger fans, but it’s true. And it wasn’t because the bullpen phone was broken. 很久很久以前,在一场重要的洋基红袜季後赛比赛,有个先发投手投的太长了。这对於现 在的年轻粉丝来说似乎不可思议,但是这是真的,而且不换投的原因不是因为要call牛棚 的电话坏掉了。 The fateful decision by Grady Little, who stuck with a fading Pedro Martinez as the Yankees erupted in the eighth inning of Game 7 of the 2003 American League Championship Series, now seems as quaint as a flannel uniform. No manager today would risk losing a game — or his job, as Little did — without at least trying a few relievers. Grady Little那个改变命运的决定,2003年ALCS第七战洋基在八局下开始大爆发,他把威 力下滑的Pedro Martinez留在场上;按照现在标准,那决定似乎很古怪。现在的总教练不 会像Little一样,冒险输掉一场比赛--或是输掉他的饭碗--而不至少试试看用几个救援投 手。 Consider the 2018 postseason. Through the first two games of each of the division series, and including the two wild-card games, starting pitchers had averaged fewer than five innings per start. Only three starters — Hyun-Jin Ryu and Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Gerrit Cole of the Houston Astros — had worked seven innings. 看看今年的季後赛。头两场各分区系列赛,包括两场外卡赛,先发投手都投不过五局。只 有三位投手--两位躲人投手柳贤振跟Clayton Kershaw,以及太色的Gerrit Cole--有投到 了七局。 Sometimes, of course, starters are yanked for pitching badly. That is why the Red Sox pulled David Price in the second inning of a 6-2 loss to the Yankees in Game 2 on Saturday night. But it is also the time of the year when micromanaging the bullpen takes over the sport. 当然有时候先发因为投的太烂提早下场,就像星期六洋基跟红袜那场6-2比赛,红袜在第二 局就把David Price换下来。不过那也就像这一整年一直以来的状况,微观管理的牛棚已经 接管了棒球运动。 “It’s the playoffs,” Price said. “You see it happen all the time, especially over the past couple of years. Managers go into bullpens extremely early.” 「这是季後赛,」Price说。「一直以来都是这样,尤其是过去几年,教练们很早就去牛棚 叫人上来了。」 It is not just the postseason. As Jayson Stark pointed out in The Athletic, bullpens combined to make 678 more relief appearances in the 2018 regular season than they did in 2017 — and nearly 2,000 more relief appearances than they made five years ago. 但是,这不只发生在季後赛。作家Jayson Stark指出,牛棚的出赛次数,在正规赛季, 2018年的出赛次数比2017年多了678次--比起五年前更是多了几乎近2000次。 The October version of the trend crystallized in Game 3 of the 2016 World Series, when the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians both pulled their starters in the fifth inning of a scoreless tie. With analytics favoring a procession of bullpen strikeout specialists, the strategy is only gaining momentum as more and more hard-throwing relievers populate the game. 十月份的棒球趋势可以在2016年世界大赛第三战看到发挥的极致,双方僵持到第五局都是 未得分,小熊跟笑脸在第五局换下他们的先发。当分析数字显示支持用牛棚里那群的三振 高手时,随着越来越多队伍使用一堆火球救援投手,这样的策略也就越来越风行。 In the 2016 and 2017 postseasons, 49 of 146 starts — nearly 35 percent — lasted at least 90 pitches. This postseason, the figure had plunged to 20 percent (four of 20) through Saturday’s games. In the Yankees’ two victories this October, their starters have lasted just nine innings combined, despite allowing only one run. 2016跟2017年的季後赛,146位先发,有49位(接近35%)可以投至少90球。而本季,至上星 期六为止,20位只有4位(20%)可以办得到。洋基在10月两场赢球的比赛,两位先发加起来 只投了九局,虽然总共也只丢掉了一分。 Luis Severino collected the first 12 outs of the wild-card game against Oakland last Wednesday, and Masahiro Tanaka got the first 15 outs at Fenway Park on Saturday. That was all the Yankees wanted. Luis Severino在外卡战拿了12个出局数,田中将大在芬威球场拿下15个出局数,那就是洋 基队想要的。 “One of our overwhelming strengths is our bullpen, and when you get into these postseason games — especially when you have some off-days sprinkled in — you don’t worry as much about workload,” Manager Aaron Boone said. “You know you can protect guys. You just kind of weigh what matchups you like better, especially as you get to the second, third time through an order. If you’re lined up in the bullpen with the guys we’re able to run out there, we ’re going to do that on a lot of different nights.” 「我们几个令人惧怕的强项,其中之一就是我们的牛棚,而当到了季後赛--尤其是赛程中 间有间隔几个休息日--我们不用担心会操过头。」总教练Aaron Boone说。「我们知道要保 护球员,所以我们得要评估一下怎样的组合会比较好,尤其是打到第二轮或是第三轮时。 如果牛棚里有人能够上场的话,我们就会把他们派上场的。」 Boone added the obligatory nod to the old ways, saying he would love to get seven or eight innings from a starter. It could happen, he said, if the starter were especially efficient, or the score lopsided. Boone对於老派的做法还是有给予尊重,说若是可以,他也会让先发投到七局或是八局。他 说,若是先发投得超有效率,或是分数一面倒的话,那就有可能发生。 “So I wouldn’t rule it out,” he said, “but we’ll be aggressive when we feel like our guys are lined up and we can roll them out.” 「所以我不会说我不会这样做,」他说。「但是我们要保持侵略性,当我们觉得我们的球 员准备好了,我们就会派他们上场。」 The reasoning is clear for the Yankees. They have four experienced relievers averaging at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings — Chad Green, Dellin Betances, David Robertson and closer Aroldis Chapman. Another reliever, Zach Britton, has a devastating power sinker when he is at his best. 洋基这样做的理由很明显,他们有四位经验老到的救援投手--Chad Green,Dellin Betances,David Robertson跟守护神Aroldis Chapman--每九局可以至少三振11个人。另 外一位救援投手,Zach Britton,若是在他状况好的时候,他的沉球是很有威力的。 Like a talented point guard with multiple All-Star options on the court, the starters understand the need to share the ball. 就像篮球场上控球後卫才华洋溢,但是场上队友也是全明星等级的话,这後卫也会了解到 球权还是要分享的。 “That was the plan, go four or five good innings and after that the bullpen is going to go do their job,” Severino said after the wild-card game. “When I went into the first inning, that was the mind-set.” 「目前计画就是这样,先发上场投个四到五局,然後就换牛棚上来做他们的工作,」 Severino在外卡战後访问时说到。「当我一局上场时,我的心里就是这样盘算的。」 Like the Yankees, who traded for Britton in July, the Milwaukee Brewers fortified an already deep bullpen by adding Joakim Soria in a summer deal. Soria worked a scoreless 10th inning to win Game 1 of the Brewers’ division series with Colorado, then got two strikeouts in the seventh to hold a one-run lead in Game 2. 就像洋基在七月的时候换到Britton,酒鬼在夏天的时候在他们已经坚强的牛棚里再加上了 Joakim Soria。Soria在酒鬼打落矶分区系列赛第一场10局上场无失分,在第二场则是在7 局上场,拿下两次三振,保住了一分领先。 The Brewers could be the Tampa Bay Rays of this postseason. In the regular season, the Rays upended the traditional notion of starters and relievers, and the Brewers seem intent on doing that now. They have three relievers — Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel — who each earned anywhere from 12 to 16 saves this season, and their starters rarely last deep in games. 酒鬼可能像是季後赛版的光芒。在正规赛季,光芒颠覆了传统先发後援投手的认知,而酒 鬼似乎想要在季後赛如法炮制。三位救援投手--Josh Hader,Jeremy Jeffress跟Corey Knebel--本季约12-16场救援成功,而在先发的时候很少投长局数。 “Largely, we’re trying to get away from what the word ‘starter’ and ‘ reliever’ means,” Brewers Manager Craig Counsell told reporters last week. “That’s how we’re going to get through the postseason, I think.” 「我们大概会试着不去在意"先发"跟"後援"字面上的意义,」酒鬼总教练Craig Counsell 在上星期跟记者说。「我想,那大概会是我们如何去打这次季後赛的方式。」 That is, indeed, how the Brewers swept the first round. They finished off a three-game wipeout of the Rockies on Sunday, holding Colorado to two runs in the series while using relievers for 46 outs and starters for 38. 那也是酒鬼在第一轮横扫的方式。他们在星期天的时候横扫落矶,三战只让落矶拿下了两 分,救援投手拿下46个出局数,先发投手则是拿下38个。 The Red Sox, who resisted a summer bullpen trade, would be challenged to deploy such a strategy. They banked on a comeback from Tyler Thornburg, who never fully recovered from thoracic outlet syndrome, and were encouraged by the emergence of the journeyman Ryan Brasier, but he inherited two runners from Chris Sale in the sixth inning of Game 1 and allowed both to score. 红袜则是在夏天的时候没做牛棚的补强,要做这样的策略会是有困难的。他们赌Tyler Thornburg可以从胸廓出口症候群(Thoracic Outlet Syndrome)完全恢复回归,他们也为牛 棚新崭露的投手Ryan Braiser感到振奋,但是在Game 1的时候接替Chris Sale在六局上 场,垒上有两名跑者,而且最後都回来得分。 In Game 2 on Saturday, the Red Sox made so many pitching changes that Aaron Judge faced a different pitcher in each of his five trips to the plate. It didn’t seem to help much: Judge homered, flied out, reached on an error, singled and walked. 而在星期六的Game 2,红袜频频换投,Aaron Judge五次上场,五次面对的都是不同的投 手。但是看起来效果不彰,一支全垒打,一次接杀,一次失误上垒,一次一垒打跟一个保 送。 Now the Red Sox — who used starter Rick Porcello for relief in Game 1 — will turn to former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi to start Game 3 on Monday. Eovaldi has fired 16 shutout innings against the Yankees since his trade from Tampa Bay in July, and he should be strong, having pitched just once in the last 13 days. 现在换红袜了--在Game 1时用先发Rick Porcello救援上场--在星期一的Game 3会启用前洋 基投手Nathan Eovaldi先发。Eovaldi在七月从光芒交易来之後对上洋基是16局未失分。所 以,过去13天只上过一次场的他,应该体力充沛。 “Seven innings, two hits, one run,’’ Boston Manager Alex Cora said Sunday when asked what he expected from Eovaldi. 「投七局,两支安打,掉一分,」星期天红袜总教练Alex Cora被问到他希望Eovaldi的表 现会是如何。 A performance like that would be ideal for the Red Sox, and would look timeless in a box score. The Yankees, meanwhile, will use the postmodern plan: Severino for a little while, then a battalion of strong arms sure to follow. 那样的表现对红袜来说会是再好不过,在成绩板上看起来也会很赞。而在此同时,洋基则 会采用後现代的方式:Severino投一些,然後牛棚那群强壮的肩膀铁定是要跟着上的。 -- #1RelwrS2 (MLB) 标题 [闲聊] 躲人Puig家里过去一年半被闯空门四次
1F:推 vgil: 不请个24HR保全顾吗09/20 15:57
2F:→ william80730: 24HR去当保全?09/20 19:49
3F:→ william80730: Puig自己才21HR09/20 19:51
4F:→ ylrafale: 24小时啦谁跟你24轰 09/20 20:14
--



※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 61.222.1.181
※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/MLB/M.1538978703.A.1F9.html
5F:→ Roshiel: 现在球队M型化..又加上731没希望的球队大放送 10/08 14:37
6F:→ Roshiel: 好投手(特别是RP)会向季後赛球队集中,SP投短变成趋势了 10/08 14:38
7F:推 ohmyya: 洋基这样下去都快凑出九个CLOSER了 10/08 15:00
8F:→ corlos: 季後赛就是看谁的牛给力吧 10/08 15:09
9F:推 Werth: 剩下的球队真的牛棚够铁 也只有洋基 其次酒鬼 太空人 还不 10/08 15:18
10F:→ Werth: 到有明显趋势 未来可以让SP不够强的球队借镜 10/08 15:18
11F:推 Asucks: 牛棚应该是洋基能打败宇宙袜的唯一解 10/08 15:20
12F:→ ypw: Eov其实是16局有掉1分但非责失,另外牛也不是都像看起来那麽 10/08 15:21
13F:→ ypw: 猛,季赛多次9局甚至8局就开剧场了...保送啦失误啦.... 10/08 15:21
14F:推 david319: 好文章,推 10/08 15:31
15F:推 ohmyya: 皇家那年牛棚也够硬 10/08 15:36
16F:→ bonjovi0930: 铁牛棚近年的显学.意外道奇一直补打线牛棚反而摆烂 10/08 15:37
17F:推 ricky8978: 熊矶不是两个都优质? 10/08 15:51
18F:推 markneil: 铁牛棚是不是从皇家三本柱开始的?还是更早? 10/08 16:17
19F:推 darktasi: 皇家三本柱开启了大 rp时代 10/08 16:31
20F:推 MKAngelheart: 明明就勇士OVK先开始的 虽然季後赛从没合体过 10/08 16:41
21F:推 ultratimes: 铁牛棚在前两轮很好用,但是在WS就会开始疲软了 10/08 16:50
22F:→ ultratimes: 道奇去年就是这样,特别是Jansen 10/08 16:51
23F:推 TBDuke: 会不会以後先发只是形式 後面都是靠牛棚了 10/08 17:04
24F:推 y800122155: 洋基的牛超贵欸 光那几个年薪加起来都快50M了 10/08 17:15
25F:推 SHOHOKU: 洋基的贵跟别人不一样,说不定还觉得便宜...XD 10/08 17:16
26F:→ dinos: 一年有1450IP要吃,一头钢铁牛就算能吃下100IP,也至少要15头 10/08 17:22
27F:推 aborwang: 以洋基来讲,铁牛棚的好用在牛棚三头兽时就显现了,Quan 10/08 17:22
28F:→ aborwang: trill, Gordan, Mo。再更早Mo担任Wetteland的setup man 10/08 17:22
29F:→ aborwang: 时,Torre可能是误打误撞,反正照顺序要Mo先上,刚好面 10/08 17:23
30F:→ aborwang: 对对手最佳反攻的时机。也就在稍後几年进入21世纪,球 10/08 17:23
31F:→ aborwang: 坛开始有要让最好的後援投手面对最严峻状况的讨论,而 10/08 17:23
32F:→ aborwang: 不是只固定在第9局。同时期还有bullpen committee的实 10/08 17:23
33F:→ aborwang: 验,效果不太好就是了 10/08 17:23
34F:→ dinos: 当年天天P也不过吃下102.1IP,隔年就开始还债 10/08 17:25
35F:推 ChrisDavis: 现在能够止血的Stopper越来越重要惹 10/08 17:33
36F:→ ChrisDavis: 前年笑脸就是有问题找Miller 10/08 17:33
37F:推 holypiggy: 季後赛根本和BBO一样阿 先发两局 牛棚上来催到爽 10/08 17:39
38F:→ geneaven: 才102IP...以现在看快要用2只牛才吃得掉的份量了 10/08 17:54
39F:推 sunnydragon7: 季後赛是皇家狂用铁牛棚… 10/08 18:03
40F:推 Roshiel: 季赛拼的是火力,躲人当时季後赛还不稳啊 10/08 18:05
41F:推 BlitzX: 第七段gaining momentum那边翻错了 应该是说这种战术 10/08 19:43
42F:→ BlitzX: 越来越多人使用 10/08 19:43
已修 感谢 ※ 编辑: pneumo (124.218.53.71), 10/08/2018 20:09:29
43F:推 nagii5566: 牛棚是胜负的关键啊 10/08 20:09
44F:推 JessicaA1ba: 一个季後赛超强的先发赢得冠军的机率比铁牛阵高,只 10/08 22:11
45F:→ JessicaA1ba: 是因为超强的先发难得,才退而求其次组铁牛阵;有疯 10/08 22:11
46F:→ JessicaA1ba: 邦,有V中,一个系列战已经2~3胜入口袋,铁牛阵可不 10/08 22:11
47F:→ JessicaA1ba: 保证如此。 10/08 22:11
48F:推 Roshiel: 没错,有王牌给你稳稳地吃七局,哪个教练会提早上牛棚 10/08 22:38
49F:→ Roshiel: 现在王牌几乎都早早被绑长约,索价太高很难凑到4 ACE 10/08 22:39
50F:→ Roshiel: 退而求其次才组铁牛棚 10/08 22:39
51F:→ ypw: 现在Ace确实难得又贵还要绑长约 没那麽多供给只好找牛来组 10/08 22:45
52F:→ ypw: 虽然好牛也涨了不过 跟Ace比起来算是还可得跟短约一点 10/08 22:46
53F:推 CarlEdwards: 木匠:好像有人提到4张Ace?? 10/08 23:13
54F:推 rahim: Hou:有人说Ace很难换? 10/09 07:28
55F:→ rahim: V中跟Cole我好像没花多大筹码的弄来了 10/09 07:28







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