原文出处：https://goo.gl/1iWLUh Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves By Jeff Todd | November 24, 2017 at 5:17pm CDT After a disappointing season ended in front office calamity, the Braves will attempt to take the next step in their rebuilding process under new baseball leadership. 一个令人失望的赛季，随之而後的是管理团队的悲剧，勇士尝试在新的管理团队下 重建。 保证合约： -Freddie Freeman, 1B：明年薪资 $21.3M 合约至2021，剩余薪资66M -Matt Kemp, OF：明年薪资 $21.75M 合约至2019，剩余薪资21.75M (道奇支付7M) -Ender Inciarte, OF：明年薪资 $4.7M 合约至2021，剩余薪资22.1M -Julio Teheran, SP：明年薪资 $8.167M 合约至2019，薪资剩余11.167M -Nick Markakis, OF：明年薪资 $11M 合约至2018 -Jim Johnson, RP：明年薪资 $4.5M 合约至2018 -Tyler Flowers, C：明年薪资 $4M 合约至2018 (执行球队选择权) -Kurt Suzuki, C：明年薪资 $3.5M 合约至2018 -Rex Brothers, RP：双向合约(价值未知) -仲裁团：（括号中是年资+天数） -Matt Adams (5.033) –预计 $4.6M -Arodys Vizcaino (4.168) –预计 $3.7M -Danny Santana (3.111) –预计 $1.1M -Sam Freeman (3.066) –预计 $1.2M -Jace Peterson (3.003) –预计 $1.1M -Daniel Winkler (3.000) –预计 $800K -Mike Foltynewicz (2.163) –预计 $2.7M -不提供合约人选: Adams, Santana, Peterson -自由球员： -R.A. Dickey： 拒绝球队选择权 -Jason Motte John Hart and John Coppolella provided a wild ride for the Braves’ faithful, engineering a variety of bold moves and stocking the organization with young talent. But rules violations led to the departures of both, along with league discipline that stripped the Braves of some of their most interesting younger prospects and constrained the organization’s ability to add new international talent in the coming seasons. JH跟JC替勇士队规划了一个美好的未来，各种大胆的举动跟累积许多青春的肉体。 但违反签约规则导致两位的离职，也遭受到联盟的判罚，剥夺了一些新选入的菜鸟， 并同时限制在未来几年国际选秀的签约金。 Former Blue Jays GM and Dodgers executive Alex Anthopoulos was brought in as an experienced hand who can get the organization back on track. But that doesn’t mean we should anticipate a quiet offseason. Though the new top baseball decisionmaker has suggested he’s not looking for a general shake-up, he swung quite a few blockbusters in Toronto and will surely have his own ideas about the roster he’s inheriting. 前蓝鸟GM同时也是道奇VP的AA，是一位很有经验的老手，可以帮助管理阶层走上正轨。 但这不意味着现在是个安静的休赛季。尽管AA已经暗示他不会有全面性的改革，但根据 他在蓝鸟时处理一堆烂约的过往，相信他对球员名单会有自己的想法。 What remains unclear is just how aggressive the organization will be in seeking to put a winner on the field in 2018. The club enters the offseason with just over $90MM in likely commitments, including anticipated arbitration payouts. Depending upon how high payroll will rise, there could be some room for relatively significant additions. Alternatively, the club might seek to condense some of its upper-level young talent in an effort to land quality, controllable assets to the MLB roster. Entering the second year at SunTrust Park on the heels of the rules scandal, it’s possible to imagine some effort to push into contention. On the other hand, the hit to the team’s future interests may counsel in favor of some caution. 目前仍不清楚的是球队对2018的积极性。但随着明年大笔的薪资 $90M(包含薪资仲裁)， 同时薪资水准仍有相当大的成长幅度下，可能还有相当的增加空间。另一方面，球团也 累积了一些高天份的青春肉体，准备放入名单。 在迁移到新球场的第二年爆发选秀丑闻後，试着做出一些努力重返竞争行列，同时也对球团 未来的规划有所警惕。 In his first acts in office, Anthopoulos took some low-cost opportunities to shore up the team’s bullpen — a notable area of need. But the pitchers he grabbed from his former organization — Grant Dayton and Josh Ravin — are just the kind of risky maneuvers we might have seen from his predecessors. The former will miss most or all of 2018 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery while the latter has never held down a steady MLB job. But both have big-time swing-and-miss upside. 在AA接下管理团队後的第一个动作，找了一些低成本的牛来支撑着牛棚-一个显着的需求。 但这些投手来自他的前东家，Grant Dayton和 Josh Ravin，一个看似很有风险的决策。 Grant Dayton，刚从TJ手术回来，极有可能错过2018的球季。而後者 Josh Ravin，没有 证明过在MLB有压制力。但两者都具备关键时刻令打者的挥空率。 Lining up a strong and reliable relief corps, though, may well require more. There’s talent on hand, to be sure. Pitchers such as Arodys Vizcaino, Jose Ramirez, A.J. Minter, Mauricio Cabrera, Daniel Winkler, Luke Jackson, Rex Brothers, Jacob Lindgren, and Jesse Biddle have had some MLB success and/or shown impressive arsenals, not unlike Dayton and Ravin. But none of these pitchers has yet strung together multiple, successful MLB campaigns and several come with health concerns. Veterans Jim Johnson and Sam Freeman are in the picture, too, but there’s room here for further tinkering. 但是，建立一个强壮的牛棚可能需要更多，但肯定的是，手上的青春肉体们，Arodys Vizcaino, Jose Ramirez, A.J. Minter, Mauricio Cabrera, Daniel Winkler, Luke Jackson, Rex Brothers, Jacob Lindgren, and Jesse Biddle都展现过一定的实绩。 就像刚捡来的两位新牛。但这些牛还没有证明过能撑起连续的赛季，其中几位还有着健 康的疑虑。这牛棚还有修补的空间rrr。 It’s not an altogether different picture in the rotation, which no longer includes three veteran arms — R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Jaime Garcia — that opened with the club last year. Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz are the two senior members of the staff at present; both will be looking to improve after producing middling results in 2017. They could be joined by a trio young lefties who are fresh off of their MLB debuts. Sean Newcomb still needs to hone his command to reach his ceiling, but turned in 100 solid frames. Luiz Gohara showed off his talent in five starts, posting 9.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 after mostly dominating in his first taste of the upper minors in an eventful campaign. And Max Fried also got a brief run in the bigs, though his overall effort on the year suggests some further seasoning may be in order. 先发方面也是，三位老将-Dickey.八头龙.Garcia,也都退休或被交易了。目前仅有大黑轮 跟Folty，两位在2017年都缴出一般的成绩，但相信在明年会有所改善。其余的三个空缺， 将由三位新鲜左投来递补，Newcomb在2017投了100局，但还需要磨练他的好球带控制能力 才能到他的天花板。Gohara在5次的先发展现了他的天赋，缴出了9.5 k/9和2.5 b/9在他 的首次大联盟赛季。而Fried也有过短暂的大联盟经验，虽然今年的表现还有些进步调整 的空间。 Otherwise, the Braves have some back-end right-handed arms available in Lucas Sims, Aaron Blair, and Matt Wisler, all of whom have struggled in their early MLB time. More exciting arms — Mike Soroka and Kolby Allard — aren’t far off after turning in strong years at Double-A, but don’t currently hold 40-man roster spots. 除此之外，勇士还有着一些右手先发可以用，像是Lucas Sims, Aaron Blair, and Matt Wisler，虽然他们在都有些挣扎期。但有更令人期待的投手— Mike Soroka and Kolby Allard —在2A缴出漂亮的成绩，虽然还没进入到40人名单。 With that wide array of options, the Braves could actually focus on paring back some excess depth over the offseason and into the camp, though there’s also some flexibility since all of those candidates can also still be optioned. Competing the open spots between this lengthy list of young pitchers is a reasonable approach. Some may also conceivably turn into bullpen candidates instead. 在这满出来的选择下，勇士在休赛季期间，可以专注在一些交易多余的牛来增加弹性， 毕竟都还有选择权。让这群投手来竞争开季的位置，也是个合理的方式。虽然有一些有可 能转为牛棚。 At the same time, the Braves will need to strongly consider pursuing upgrades if they truly hope to put a legitimate contender on the field for the coming season. There’s some merit to considering a solid veteran type to hold down some innings at the back of the rotation, though the team passed up on a chance to retain Dickey for the purpose (though he may have been headed for retirement anyway) and it is also arguable that a more significant addition would be warranted. It’s possible to imagine the Braves dabbling in the upper levels of the free agent market, perhaps going after a hurler such as Alex Cobb or finally landing the unicorn (top-end controllable starter) that the prior administration seemingly pursued for years. There’s a long slate of possibilities at a lower price point, of course, and the Braves might also conceivably take some lower-priced risks, with righty Chris Tillman representing the most intriguing bounceback arm available to the high bidder. 同时，如果勇士想要提升下赛季的竞争力，就需要考虑升级投手。找一些有经验的投手 来有着许多优点，虽然勇士因为这原因放弃了Dickey(要退休了)，但找投手的重要性是 值得肯定的。像是 Alex Cobb或是其他可控制长时间且较低廉的投手，制服组追求的是 低风险的对象。如果要高风险则像是 Chris Tillman，赌一个触底反弹的可能性。 There’s less to be done on the position-player side, though that shouldn’t be read as a suggestion that there isn’t any room for improvement. In addition to top star Freddie Freeman at first, the club is set up the middle with Ender Inciarte in center; Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and Johan Camargo in the middle infield; and Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki behind the plate. That’s far from the best group of core position player talent in baseball, particularly given that the young infielders still are not yet fully established and the catchers are only short-term assets, but it gives the organization a base to work from this winter. 在其他位置部分可以操作的球员选项不多，但这不代表没有改进的空间。首先除了球队 的脸Freeman在一垒外，中外野有金手套Inciarte，内野则有Swanson，Albies和 Camargo 组成，Flowers跟 Suzuki则镇守本垒。这会是目前最好的选择，尤其考虑到年轻的内野手 都还没长时间合作，而捕手只是短期约。但这些组合让球队在休赛季有运作的空间。 The top priority, in all likelihood, will be improving at third base. Adonis Garcia has had stretches of competence, but he’s a 32-year-old player with a .267/.300/.414 slash through 944 MLB plate appearances. Former top pick Rio Ruiz may ultimately deserve a longer look, but he hit just .193/.283/.307 in his 173 trips to the plate at the game’s highest level last year and has not exactly dominated the opposition over two full seasons at Triple-A. Around this time last year, Coppolella gave some reason to believe Travis Demeritte might be the future at the hot corner, but he took a step back in 2017 and was not protected from the Rule 5 draft. (Dustin Peterson was also left open to being claimed in the draft.) The current prospect of note is Austin Riley, who knocked around Double-A pitching after a tepid run at the High-A level. But he’s still just twenty years of age and is far from a sure thing. 最重要的一点，可以在三垒这位置获得改善。Garcia已经有一定的能力，但是个32岁的球 员，同时在MLB的944次打数缴出.267/.300/.414。前三垒大物(?) Ruiz可能需要更长一段 时间观察，在去年的173打席中缴出.193/.283/.307，而且在3A的两个球季还没有掌现主 宰性。而在去年的这时後，前GM Coppolella有理由相信 Demeritte是未来的解答，但在 2017年退步了同时没有放在规则5的保护名单内（ Dustin Peterson也是)。但目前值得注 意的是 Riley，在1A跟2A打出漂亮的成绩，但他还只有20岁，还有太多不确定性。 While the Braves could conceivably allow Camargo to play at third while utilizing Jace Peterson as a utility infielder, that would be an awfully risky way of constructing the infield for an organization that intends to improve its on-field product. Camargo turned heads last year, but benefited from a .364 BABIP and walked at only a 4.7% clip. Swanson struggled badly after an impressive MLB debut in 2016. That also serves as a reminder not to forget that Albies is still just twenty years old and may yet have his own growing pains to experience. The better bet would be to bring in a veteran to shore things up at the hot corner for at least a season or two. MLBTR guessed that the Braves could land top free agent Mike Moustakas, who lacks an obvious landing spot, but that was and remains a speculative connection. The Braves could look at other established players on shorter-term deals, potentially including free agents ranging from Todd Frazier to Yunel Escobar or potential trade targets that could include Yangervis Solarte and Nick Castellanos. At this point, frankly, it’s hard to guess what kind of direction the pursuit might take odds are, though, that there’ll be a healthy dose of opportunism guiding the effort. 或许勇士可以用 Camargo来守三垒，而Peterson作为内野工具人。但这对要重建的球队 内野来说有相当大的冒险程度。Camargo2017有着显着的进步，但这受益於.364 BABIP而 且保送率只有4.7%。Swanson在2016亮相後的糟糕表现，也不忘提醒着 Albies只有20岁， 都还在成长的阶段。所以找一名老将来三垒至少1~2个球季，MLBTR猜测勇士会找FA- Moustakas，虽然没有强烈的需求，但会是笔投机的交易。或者其他的FA- Todd Frazier， Yunel Escobar，甚至是交易来Yangervis Solarte 和 Nick Castellanos。还有一点， 老实说这些猜测的交易很难评估说会带给勇士怎样的方向，但尽管这样，还是可以有老将 来带领这群新人内野。 The corner outfield is another area of some intrigue (though others could open based upon other moves). Atlanta could rely again upon veterans Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis while supplementing them with a reserve or two, possibly including Lane Adams, who showed well in his first real MLB time in 2017. But the organization would probably rather upgrade over those two — neither of whom profiles as a viable everyday player at this stage of their careers — and begin preparing for a future with younger options. Shedding some salary would be preferable, too. Markakis would make for a useful platoon or reserve outfielder for a contender, though he could also remain an appealing piece in Atlanta, while Kemp could fit on an American League team in search of pop. But dealing either will mean keeping some salary, particularly for the latter. 外野的两侧又是个复杂的问题了。目前是两位老将 Markakis和 Kemp，同时寻找1~2位替 补人选。可能包括 Lane Adams，在他大联盟的第一个球季表现出色。但球队更倾向升级 这两个位置，在两位的这个阶段，都已经不是每天可以上场的状态，也必须为未来做些 选择，即使需要付出一些薪水。Markakis 或许可以成为轮替或替补的角色，尽管他在亚 特兰大有着相当大的吸引力。而 Kemp更适合在美联的球队找寻机会。但是，这两位的交 易都意味着需要吃下点薪资空间，尤其是後者。 There are some similarities between the corner outfield and the third-base situations, with one major difference. Unlike at the hot corner, there is a clear heir apparent on hand to step into an outfield spot. Top prospect Ronald Acuna is likely ready for a big league test after blowing through the minors in 2017, though the team will in all probability at least start him in the minors to capture an additional season of club control. While pursuing other pieces in the corner outfield could still make sense, particularly if a truly appealing opportunity presents itself, one spot will undoubtedly be reserved for Acuna — who could be an everyday presence for the majority of 2018 and years beyond. 外野的两侧跟三垒有着相似的情况，但有一个主要的区别。不像三垒的缺乏，外野已经 有个准备进来的大物-Acuna。目前勇士队排名第一的青春肉体，已经准备好挑战MLB了。 虽然找寻新的外野手还是有意义的，尤其是具有吸引力的外野手。但另一个位置，毫无 疑问是留给 Acuna。 That leaves one interesting, unaddressed piece of the Braves’ offseason puzzle: Matt Adams. The first baseman was a sensation upon arriving in a midseason swap, but cooled down the stretch and also missed time with injury. The Braves dabbled with positional changes to accommodate his bat in the lineup — trying Freeman at third and Adams in left — but those seem likely to be left in the rearview mirror. Now, Adams looks to be an ill-fitting piece for a team whose best player is a young, left-handed-hitting first baseman. While it’s conceivable that he’d draw interest in trade, the 29-year-old is best limited to facing right-handed pitching and occupying first base or DH. Defensively limited, good-but-not-great hitters aren’t in short supply these days, so it’s not likely that the Atlanta organization will reap a big return — and it’s possible the team will simply non-tender Adams instead. 这边还留下件有趣的事情，无法解决的休赛季难题-Matt Adams。球季中的交易来到， 补上受伤的缺。在Freeman回来後，Freeman改守三垒，但这不是长时间的解答。Adams会 是一名好的左打，但对勇士来说是不适合的。可以预料他会对交易有兴趣，但29岁，只能 占据一垒或DH，对右投明显好过左投。防守也不怎样，所以交易价值可能不大。勇士可能 不提供合约给他。 Ultimately, despite the loss of some notable prospect capital, Anthopoulos will have quite a few pieces and a bit of payroll flexibility to work with. The wild cards here are upper management’s views on the contention timeline and the new front office’s feelings about the club’s young talent. There’s a conceivable world where the Braves end up largely maintaining their current roster for the 2018 season, with a few tweaks on the margins. There’s another where Atlanta engages in quite a bit more swapping and acquiring of assets, reflecting both Anthopoulos’s preferences and perhaps also a determination that it’s time to move toward competition. And there’s a wide gray area in between, with plenty of stopping points along the way. What was always going to be a fascinating offseason to watch is all the more interesting after the curveball that kicked it off. 最後，虽然丧失了一些新秀和签约金，但AA相对来说有些弹性预算来进行操作。外卡跟好 好培养这些青春的肉体是当前的目标。试着想想看，勇士在2018结束後，还是保留着现阶 段的大部分球员，只有在阵容上做些调整。或许还有个可能，勇士做了更多的交易，这反 映出AA的偏好，或许也是竞争的时候到了。这中间还有许多空间来做出改变，在经过这个 休赛季後，请拭目以待。 ----------------------------------------------------- 首次翻译，翻得不好请见谅， 如有错误或是更好的建议， 也请提出，谢谢：） RL --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 118.160.49.222 ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/MLB/M.1511705999.A.D98.html ※ 编辑: rioslo (118.160.49.222), 11/26/2017 22:21:02 谢谢发现，我眼睛都花了，已修正 谢谢fountainNess大，我在修一下，我会好好念书der(握拳 epw，今年主客场差异超大Orz ※ 编辑: rioslo (118.160.49.222), 11/26/2017 23:24:20 ※ rioslo:转录至看板 Braves 11/27 09:32