Jeff Samardzija, In the Name of Efficiency http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-samardzija-in-the-name-of-efficiency/ by Jeff Sullivan - May 22, 2014 There are two big stories with Jeff Samardzija right now. One is that he’s almost certain to get traded by the Cubs somewhere around the deadline, as a contender looks for a major rotation boost. The other is that Samardzija is currently 0-4 in ten starts with a 1.46 ERA. Of course, we pretty much never talk about win/loss record, and of course a pitcher on the Cubs is going to have a worse record than he deserves, but for as silly as this bit of trivia is, it really is astonishing. In Samardzija’s ten games, the Cubs have scored 20 runs. 现在对於鲨鱼来说有两个关注点 1. 他大概会在交易截止日前被交易 2. 本季先发十场战绩0-4 ERA1.46(我记得这是MLB历史纪录了) 当然我们不去讨论胜败纪录 况且在光绪熊的投手本来就会有更差的胜败成绩(Garza表示:) 虽然有点好笑 但另人吃惊的是这10场比赛光绪熊只得了20分 Because of those two things going on, relatively few people might have noticed a third thing going on. Samardzija remains a quality starter, but ever so quietly, he’s changed his profile. The starter version of Jeff Samardzija in 2014 isn’t the starter version of Jeff Samardzija from the two previous years, and in particular, this version of Samardzija doesn’t get as many strikeouts, even though he still has all his stuff. Last year, he was tied in strikeout rate with Shelby Miller and Gio Gonzalez. This year he’s even with Kyle Lohse. At the moment, Samardzija is one of the most talked-about pitchers in baseball, and so we might as well talk about why he isn’t quite what he was. It’s not that he’s a worse pitcher. It’s that he ’s a different pitcher. 而前面两件事情都仍在进行 许多人都没注意到第三件事情 鲨鱼是个非常好的投手 甚至安静到他改变了投球型态 都没人注意 2014年的鲨鱼跟前两季的他是不一样的投手 这版本的他少了一些三振却保有他原先的实力 去年他的三振率跟Gio和雪碧一样 而这季却跟肉丝一样 鲨鱼现在是个被热烈讨论的投手 所以我们想要来探讨他怎麽跟之前不一样了 Where do you start? Pitch mix, right? Pitch mix is the easiest thing to investigate, and according to Brooks Baseball, Samardzija has moved away from his bread-and-butter, the split. He still has the splitter in his back pocket, because it’s an important pitch for him, but his splitter rate has dropped from 18% to 16% to 10%. Picking up the slack: he’s thrown more sinkers. Samardzija, basically, is throwing more hittable pitches. 从哪里下手呢? 投球种类 对吧? 这是最容易去看投手的类型方式 根据Brooks Baseball 鲨鱼的指叉球越来越少投了 虽然这是他相当重要的球种 指叉球使用率从18%到16%再到10% 记得这句话 " 他投更多伸卡球 " 简单来说 鲨鱼投了更多容易被打的球 And we can zero in on the splitter rate in two-strike counts, when Samardzija might be going for a whiff: 2012: 43% 2013: 36% 2014: 24% 以上是两好球後 鲨鱼使用指叉球的比例 Used to be, Samardzija would get a strikeout with 22% of his two-strike pitches. So far this season, that’s at 17%, in part because there have been fewer splitters. And it seems important to note a couple things. One, Samardzija’s splitter has changed. It’s gained a few inches of arm-side run, and it’s lost a little bit of drop. Two, Samardzija didn’t start using the splitter this year until halfway through spring training. He was putting a lot of work into improving his other pitches, and, a relevant quote: 从前鲨鱼两好球後会有22%的三振率 今年则是17% 主因是他使用较少的指叉球 但还有其他事情必须说明 1. 鲨鱼的指叉球改变了 2. 春训过了一半 鲨鱼才开始用他的指叉球 “You take a risk any time you do something like that and change or heavily work on one pitch or don’t work on one pitch,” Samardzija said. “You’re throwing something too much or not throwing it enough.” [...] “A couple of years ago I’d keep throwing my splitter, at times with the mentality to punch out a lot of guys. But a lot of time you’re wasting pitches and letting them back in counts,” Samardzija said. 以上是鲨鱼接受访问的片段 After pitch mix, you think about pitch location. I’m going to show you a couple graphs, showing Samardzija against righties and Samardzija against lefties. The graphs will show average pitch location broken down by type, and while it isn’t the best thing to do to come up with an average location, the results can still be telling. Zero on the x-axis is the center of the plate, and zero on the y-axis is the middle of the zone, vertically. 在球种之後 你可以能想到的是进垒位置 以下将告诉你 鲨鱼分别面对左打及右打的情况 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzijarhb.png FA: four-seamer SI: sinker FC: cutter SL: slider FS: splitter (classifications straight from Brooks Baseball) In blue, locations from a year ago. In red, locations from this year. The biggest change, by far, is that Samardzija has thrown his splitter to righties a lot lower and more away. The units, incidentally, are feet. Samardzija has also been more willing to throw his sinker over the plate, and he’s brought in both his cutter and his four-seamer. The slider’s been lower. Four of five pitches have been lower. Samardzija has made an effort to work down, more, trying to get grounders and avoid the homers that’ve troubled him in the past. (右打) 蓝点是去年的位置 红点是今年的 最大的改变是指叉球更低且更外面 另外他投伸卡球更偏近好球带 而四缝跟卡特也是相同情况 滑球也更低 五个球种内就有四种比去年更低 试图取得更多滚球 近而避免HR的发生 The flip side: http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzijalhb.png Another massive change with the splitter. It’s being buried more, and where Samardzija used to throw it off the outside edge to lefties, now he’s a lot more willing to throw it down but over the plate. The cutter is no longer just an inside pitch. The four-seamer has drifted toward the outer edge. The sinker has come back closer to the fastball. All five pitches are lower, as, again, Samardzija is trying to do what he can to keep the ball out of the air. (左打) 另一个指叉球的重大改变 与去年相比 投得更接近好球带但更低 卡特不只是近身球了 四缝朝向外角 伸卡则往好球带移动 所有的五种球路都更低 再次说明鲨鱼试图将球留在地上而不是天空 What else? Plenty else. Samardzija made a change last September that didn’t seem to draw a lot of attention, but here are his horizontal release points, by start, from Brooks: 那还有什麽? 其实还很多..... 去年九月鲨鱼就改变了他放球点的位置 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzijarelease.jpg In his third-to-last start of 2013, Samardzija shifted toward the third-base side of the rubber, and he’s only shifted even more in 2014. The difference is about a foot, as Samardzija now is releasing the ball from behind a right-handed hitter’s back. I couldn’t find any quotes, but, presumably, this is about Samardzija looking for better angles, and in the three starts before Samardzija moved, lefties batted .237, but righties batted .400 while slugging .725. Samardzija was getting abused by right-handed hitters, so he tried to get a better angle against them, as sort of a counter-attack. It’s also worth noting that Samardzija has gradually been dropping his arm angle, though the difference has been more slight. This might be contributing to his splitter having different movement. 从去年季末鲨鱼在投手丘上就移向3垒一些 今年更加明显 现在鲨鱼的放球点大概是在右打者的背後 可能是他寻找更好的角度 在他调整前三场 左打被打击率.237 而右打是.400(外带SLG .725) 所以这些可能是鲨鱼在调整面对右打的情况 另外他也改变了出手角度(些微低一些) 这可能也导致他的指叉球有不同的位移 As screenshot support for the image above, here are three pictures, showing Samardzija before the shift in 2013, after the shift in 2013, and in 2014. 以下是三张鲨鱼调整投球姿势的照片 1. 2013调整前 2. 2013调整後 3. 2014再调整 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzija9413.png http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzija92313.png http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzija52114.png Samardzija these days is working from the extreme end of the rubber, and though that could change down the road — it changed just last September — it ’s not like Samardzija is feeling any sense of urgency to change what’s allowed him to run such a low ERA. So? Right now, Samardzija’s strikeouts of righties are down, but he’s also trimmed his walks to almost nothing, and he’s getting more grounders. He has yet to allow a right-handed home run. Lefties, meanwhile, are striking out a little less and walking a little more, but they’re also hitting more grounders, and slugging .319. Previously, lefties facing Samardzija slugged in the .440s. 所以? 现在他三振下滑了 但是有更多的滚球 先前面对左打有.440的长打率 现在则是.319 It seems like we’ve covered everything, but there’s one last detail, and this might be the most dramatic of all. Last season, Samardzija struck out 23% of batters with the bases empty. This season, he’s also at 23%, with identical walks. With men on, though, his whiffs have dropped from 24% to 16%. About that pitch mix from earlier — let’s break that down some. 似乎我们已经解释了差不多了 但还有最後一点 而且这可能是最重要的改变 在垒上无人的情况下 去年三振率是23% 今年也是23% 但是当垒上有人 从去年的24%下降为16% Bases Empty 垒上无人挥击率 2012: 68% fastballs/cutters 2013: 68% 2014: 67% Runner(s) On 垒上有人挥击率 2012: 54% fastballs/cutters 2013: 57% 2014: 73% With nobody on base, Jeff Samardzija has more or less pitched like his familiar self. He’s generated familiar results. When somebody reaches, though, suddenly Samardzija is a fastball machine, where he used to throw almost half secondary stuff. His xFIP with men on base is worse. However, his actual results have been much better to date, with one extra-base hit and no homers. There have been grounders, and fewer deep drives, and it seems like Samardzija might be conquering the issue that has previously given him higher ERAs than you’d expect. 当垒上无人 鲨鱼就像之前的鲨鱼 当垒上有人 鲨鱼就像狂塞直球的机器 虽然xFIP-在垒上有人的数据并不好看 但实际表现非常好 只有一发长打 完全没有被打HR 产生更多滚球 避免长打 看起来鲨鱼似乎战胜了这个问题 Of course, in time, there will be more homers, and Samardzija’s ERA will start with a 2 or a 3. Elements of his game right now are unsustainable, statistically, and it seems like he might want to prioritize strikeouts more with men on. But that hasn’t worked great for him in the past, so you can see why he’s interested in adjustments. You can see why he might want to throw fewer splitters, and you can see how Samardzija can succeed as a pitcher as less of a strikeout pitcher. If Samardzija ever wants to go back, he probably could, because he still has the repertoire. But if he likes this approach, and if the splitter is just a bit less useful from a lower slot and a more extreme angle, Samardzija is running the same xFIP- as he did last season. Samardzija is no less interesting than ever. Samardzija is no less effective than ever. 当然长时间来看 一定会有更多的HR会产生 而鲨鱼的ERA大概会调整到2-3之间 现在他的数据再再都显示无法继续维持 过去他总是把三振视为优先 但成果似乎不是太好 所以你可以想像为何他要调整 现在你看到鲨鱼三振下降但更成功 如果鲨鱼想调整回过去的鲨鱼 他似乎也可以达到 但如果他喜爱这样的投球型态 那他的xFIP-将跟去年差不多 鲨鱼现在比过去更有趣也更加有效率 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 1.171.122.72 ※ 文章网址: http://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/MLB/M.1400818040.A.397.html 感谢指正XDD 手误 ※ 编辑: JakeMcGee (1.171.122.72), 05/23/2014 13:04:56 ※ Zamned:转录至看板 Cubs 05/23 21:24